Analytics & fancy stats thread

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
that was our best third pair all year.

FOther than the fact that our team as a whole were playing like **** when Kulak was around (whether he was off the ice or on), the team was relatively treading water Kulak-Engelland as 3rd pair on roster, VS the other two guys where the third pair was the worst pair. Take a look at the "off" of each player's stats and you see which of the 3rd pair D rode off the back of the rest of the team, and which one was unreasonably treated with "kid-bias".

5v5 SVA
Defenseman| TOI | CF% | CF%-Off | SCF% | SCF%-Off | HDC% |HDC%-Off|GF%|GF%-off |PDO
Jokipakka | 424.16 | 44.99 |52.75| 43.97 | 50.36 |38.87|51.12|45.10|53.17|0.998
Bartkowski | 289.01 | 46.80 |52.36| 48.89 | 53.79 |42.31|51.9|45.20| 62.48|1.007
Kulak |286:07 | 49.09 |48.77|47.15 | 48.16 | 48.78 |48.16|37.99| 37.83|0.979

Kulak's abiity to track closely to the rest of the team suggests that as the team improved, either he would have experienced a trickle-down effect and been a strong possession player in the playoffs even with Engelland (like the Irwin-Weber pair), or had the least "disgusting" margin come playoff team.

His low PDO also suggests that as the team's 16 other skaters started scoring goals and getting stops in the regular season, so too would the Kulak-Engelland pair, since they were not unique in their PDO.
 

Mr Snrub

I like the way Snrub thinks!
Oct 12, 2016
5,713
2,410
FOther than the fact that our team as a whole were playing like **** when Kulak was around (whether he was off the ice or on), the team was relatively treading water Kulak-Engelland as 3rd pair on roster, VS the other two guys where the third pair was the worst pair. Take a look at the "off" of each player's stats and you see which of the 3rd pair D rode off the back of the rest of the team, and which one was unreasonably treated with "kid-bias".

5v5 SVA
Defenseman| TOI | CF% | CF%-Off | SCF% | SCF%-Off | HDC% |HDC%-Off|GF%|GF%-off |PDO
Jokipakka | 424.16 | 44.99 |52.75| 43.97 | 50.36 |38.87|51.12|45.10|53.17|0.998
Bartkowski | 289.01 | 46.80 |52.36| 48.89 | 53.79 |42.31|51.9|45.20| 62.48|1.007
Kulak |286:07 | 49.09 |48.77|47.15 | 48.16 | 48.78 |48.16|37.99| 37.83|0.979

Kulak's abiity to track closely to the rest of the team suggests that as the team improved, either he would have experienced a trickle-down effect and been a strong possession player in the playoffs even with Engelland (like the Irwin-Weber pair), or had the least "disgusting" margin come playoff team.

His low PDO also suggests that as the team's 16 other skaters started scoring goals and getting stops in the regular season, so too would the Kulak-Engelland pair, since they were not unique in their PDO.

Funny enough I actually forgot about Kulak-Engelland, but yeah, that was definitely a better pair than Jokipakka-Engelland or Bartkowski-Engelland or even Brodie-Engelland.

It's hard to project what Kulak's performance over a full season would look like with the small sample size we were given but there are encouraging signs all over the place.
 

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
Since you guys know how much I love comparing our four centers

Stats From PuckIQ
Dangerous Fenwick Events By Competition

VS Elite Comp
Flames C|TOI Against|DFA/60|DFF/60|DFF%
Backlund|394.17|38.00|37.40|49.60
Monahan|352.73|40.40|36.50|47.50
Bennett|255.17|36.80|33.50|47.70
Stajan|214.43|37.40|34.20|47.70

VS MiddleComp
Flames C|TOI Against|DFA/60|DFF/60|DFF%
Backlund|376.03|38.70|39.60|50.60
Monahan|428.32|41.60|39.60|48.80
Bennett|395.87|34.50|30.10|46.60
Stajan|328.52|27.30|31.60|53.60

VS BottomComp
Flames C|TOI Against|DFA/60|DFF/60|DFF%
Backlund|225.27|36.00|47.90|57.10
Monahan|309.85|40.20|37.70|48.40
Bennett|321.50|33.90|31.40|48.10
Stajan|306.72|26.70|26.30|49.50

My takeaway from this is that the idea that teammate quality probably has more effect than competition quality (or at least that measuring competition quality is dubious) has some validity.

Looking at defensemen the four centers spent the most ice time with (200+ minutes) you see far more significant swings:

Backlund WOWY Defenseman
Teammate | TOI With | DFF%
Brodie|364.73|48.50
Engelland|210.13|43.80
Giordano|488.80|54.60
Hamilton|431.37|56.60
Wideman|252.45|51.30


You see far greater swings than from the competition quality chart.
 

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
Monahan WOWY Defenseman
Teammate|TOI With|DFF%
Brodie|461.47|46.20
Giordano|362.13|53.50
Hamilton|345.57|54.20
Engelland|309.83|42.70
Wideman|280.17|47.70

Bennett WOWY Defenseman
Teammate|TOI With|DFF% With
Brodie|345.35|47.20
Giordano|288.68|52.30
Hamilton|295.72|53.50
Engelland|346.47|43.10
Wideman|227.82|42.50

Stajan WOWY Defenseman
Teammate|TOI With|DFF% With
Brodie|306.85|57.00
Giordano|235.62|46.90
Hamilton|234.85|51.10
Engelland|326.47|46.90
Wideman|178.75|55.80
 

Bjornar Moxnes

Stem Rødt og Felix Unger Sörum
Oct 16, 2016
11,490
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Troms og Finnmark
So I did a new team defense rankings and the Flames are the 7th best defensive team, as we are top 10 in every shot against metrics, and top 15 in goals against metrics despite below average goaltending.
 

Dack

Registered User
Jun 16, 2014
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https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.tierney#!/vizhome/WARbyMannyElk/Skaters

MannyElks new WAR data has Hamilton and Brodie as the 2nd and 3rd best D Men in the NHL. Assuming I'm not screwing up the data somehow.

Tkachuk, Gaudreau and Monahan all do reasonably well. Backline and Frolik don't grade too well, Gio is ranked in the same category as a lot of guys he's consistently ranked with but he's not all that close to the top.

Hamonic and Stone do terribly (both had terrible seasons last year though) as do Bennett and Brouwer.

It looks like our goaltending improved we went from a net negative in Elliot to a positive in Smith who'd ranked at about average starting goalie level. Ahead of some notables like Quick, Rask and Allen. Lack is slightly behind Johnson, I do believe we improved that area I was an Elliot supporter going in but his bad outweighed his good last season IMO.


I haven't read the calculations behind it but my first impression is that I like the goalie rankings. They seem to greatly take into account the circumstances that a goalie played in and how well they fared.
 
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InfinityIggy

Zagidulin's Dad
Jan 30, 2011
36,068
12,852
59.6097709,16.5425901
https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.tierney#!/vizhome/WARbyMannyElk/Skaters

MannyElks new WAR data has Hamilton and Brodie as the 2nd and 3rd best D Men in the NHL. Assuming I'm not screwing up the data somehow.

Tkachuk, Gaudreau and Monahan all do reasonably well. Backline and Frolik don't grade too well, Gio is ranked in the same category as a lot of guys he's consistently ranked with but he's not all that close to the top.

Hamonic and Stone do terribly (both had terrible seasons last year though) as do Bennett and Brouwer.

It looks like our goaltending improved we went from a net negative in Elliot to a positive in Smith who'd ranked at about average starting goalie level. Ahead of some notables like Quick, Rask and Allen. Lack is slightly behind Johnson, I do believe we improved that area I was an Elliot supporter going in but his bad outweighed his good last season IMO.


I haven't read the calculations behind it but my first impression is that I like the goalie rankings. They seem to greatly take into account the circumstances that a goalie played in and how well they fared.

Sam Bennetts 'stats' are... interesting.
 

Mr Snrub

I like the way Snrub thinks!
Oct 12, 2016
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I have a hard time looking and liking any analysis that tells me Backlund and Frolik don't do well. Data is data, I get that but still.

This.

Also, isn't this by the same guy who just predicted the Jets to have a 100pt season and the Flames to miss the playoffs?
 

Dack

Registered User
Jun 16, 2014
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Paul Byron tho

Yeah lmao. Obviously it's not great seeing as it also has Ron Hainsey as a top 10 D man.

I think the war shooting thing is based largely on shooting percentage because it's got guys like Laine and Byron who shot the lights out really high up. Also we never should have put Byron on waivers.

Bonus: Jagr ranks really high up in this please sign the man.
 
Last edited:

Dack

Registered User
Jun 16, 2014
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This.

Also, isn't this by the same guy who just predicted the Jets to have a 100pt season and the Flames to miss the playoffs?

Nope the guy who made the stat and the guy who made the visual for the stat are two different people.

The Jets grade well in these stats because their offence is great, Pittsburgh is also loved by GAR. The Jets will be interesting this season if Mason performs to his capabilities I think they'll make the playoffs.
 

Dertell

Registered User
Jul 14, 2015
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474
It's interesting how the results of various players, such as Hamilton and Frolik, vary so much from one WAR model to another. That's in spite of the facts there's many similarities in concept between both this and the previously discussed model.

I assume how much you value or rate any factors can be arbitrary, so players with unique or lopsided abilities will be more penalized depending on how much you value them. Not only that, but it's also a question how much you credit players for good offensive/defensive shifts by the units. Individual actions can be counted, yes, but teammates affect those numbers too.

Still, this is a problem for just about any rating ever. When players like Brodie or Jarg are always on the top of WAR charts that's a good sign. Stone... the opposite.
 

Bjornar Moxnes

Stem Rødt og Felix Unger Sörum
Oct 16, 2016
11,490
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Troms og Finnmark
What I don't get is why Backlund's WarD is a negative, especially when every other stats possible including GAR says it's a big positive on his team. Anyone care to explain?
 

Dack

Registered User
Jun 16, 2014
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IMG_20171023_103713.jpg

Took this from @Shutdownline who tracks micro stats like zone entry's and zone exits. This is really concerning; they've been letting the other team enter the zone easily since the Edmonton game and Zucker torched us last game. It might be just some early season crappy play but honestly it seems intentional and it's something we shouldn't be struggling with. Hamilton likes to step up at the line and I've barely seen him do it this year. This is a huge reason as to why Smith has had to carry us so far, the other team is going to get more chances if you just let them skate in with possession than if you play hard and force them to make plays at the blueline not unlike how the oilers completely stifled us by not letting us into the zone.
 

Anglesmith

Setting up the play?
Sep 17, 2012
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Victoria
Just from watching, though, I repeatedly find myself noticing how smoothly other teams exit their zone with numbers against us. I don't think you can isolate the problem as what our defencemen are doing at their own blueline on the rush. I think it starts with not being in a good position when the puck gets turned over to begin with. I think more often than not, it seems like the rushes we're facing are 3-on-2, which doesn't allow as much aggression at the blueline. Not sure if that's a system issue or a player issue.
 

Fig

Absolute Horse Shirt
Dec 15, 2014
12,955
8,449
Just from watching, though, I repeatedly find myself noticing how smoothly other teams exit their zone with numbers against us. I don't think you can isolate the problem as what our defencemen are doing at their own blueline on the rush. I think it starts with not being in a good position when the puck gets turned over to begin with. I think more often than not, it seems like the rushes we're facing are 3-on-2, which doesn't allow as much aggression at the blueline. Not sure if that's a system issue or a player issue.

System IMO. I don't understand how our team went from being able to connect certain ridiculous stretch passes to screwing up basic 3 foot passes in their own zone.

Last season we know: Hartley sys -> Gully 1.0
This season we know: Gully 1.0 (Lack mode?) -> Gully 2.0 (Smith mode)

During the preseason we kept watching (and still now I've noticed, but less) bunching of our own players. They're not sure who's in charge of what with Smith 2.0. I've noticed as many as 3 players clustered within 10-15 ft of each other too many times to count. That's not normal and IMO only a system could create that type of play. That's a confusion situation from dealing with an unfamiliar system IMO.
 
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Anglesmith

Setting up the play?
Sep 17, 2012
46,441
14,715
Victoria
System IMO. I don't understand how our team went from being able to connect certain ridiculous stretch passes to screwing up basic 3 foot passes in their own zone.

Last season we know: Hartley sys -> Gully 1.0
This season we know: Gully 1.0 (Lack mode?) -> Gully 2.0 (Smith mode)

During the preseason we kept watching (and still now I've noticed, but less) bunching of our own players. They're not sure who's in charge of what with Smith 2.0. I've noticed as many as 3 players clustered within 10-15 ft of each other too many times to count. That's not normal and IMO only a system could create that type of play. That's a confusion situation from dealing with an unfamiliar system IMO.
When I'm thinking of the system, I have to think back to the second half of last year. Because we know that Gulutzan wasn't happy with the play of the team through the first 7 games, which means the team probably hasn't been playing the system. The second half of last year, were we bunching up and playing this way? I seem to remember the team looking like a well-oiled machine that could pass and supported the puck well.
 
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Dack

Registered User
Jun 16, 2014
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Just from watching, though, I repeatedly find myself noticing how smoothly other teams exit their zone with numbers against us. I don't think you can isolate the problem as what our defencemen are doing at their own blueline on the rush. I think it starts with not being in a good position when the puck gets turned over to begin with. I think more often than not, it seems like the rushes we're facing are 3-on-2, which doesn't allow as much aggression at the blueline. Not sure if that's a system issue or a player issue.
The amount of times the other team gets all three of their forwards up past our last forward back is staggering and while the D will have more trouble there it's not just those types of plays where these easy zone entries are happening. The Defense haven't even been good at stopping single puck carriers who don't have support from entering the zone. They allowed 30 carry in entries last game and only broke up a total of 3 plays at the blue line. I think it's absolutely system related because Gio-Hamilton were quite good at this exact same thing last season, I can't tell you what's changed but it's definitely for the worst.

Maybe after them being torched by Mcdavid repeatedly they decided that giving up the zone and playing passive is better than getting blown by every once and a while? Regardless of the why I don't like it these are NHL players giving even the lower end ones time and space and they'll find their teammates and make plays.
 

Dack

Registered User
Jun 16, 2014
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I wanted to take a look at our players thus far advanced stats wise. All stats are 5v5 adjusted and from Corsica. I'm not sure if this includes last night's game.


Pairing CF%XGF%GF%
Hamilton-Gio (342 mins)57.75755.4
Brodie-Hamonic (295 mins)48.141.633.6
Brodie-Stone (88 mins)50.963.977.2
Kulak-Stone (120 mins) 4852.145.6
Bartkowski-Stone (78 mins)42.529.142.2
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For lines since so many combos have been tried I'm only doing lines that have played 40+ minutes together.

Line CF%XGF%GF%
Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland55.952.870
Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik59.55837.9
Bennett-Janowski-Jagr44.358.649.1
Brouwer-Stajan-Versteeg46.336.40GF 0GA
Bennett-Jankowski-Lazar53.964.40
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Some thoughts

- I think the Jagr third line is better than the Lazar third line this is a really small sample size I'm working with but the only two lines that have played a lot together are the top 2. They've also played in more games where the team as a whole performed poorly

- I saw some people saying 3M has been bad this year. I think a large part of that is their save and shooting percentages are really low. They're getting unlucky.

- Brodie-Hamonic is a disaster. I think we should try Brodie-Stone & Kulak-Hamonic.

- None of the 4th line combos have been effective in any way barring very small sample sizes. They also make a lot of money.

-Bennett and Lazar have really bad analytics this year again. Jankowski hasn't had good numbers yet either but he's only played like 160 minutes.

- The top line had similar stats in the playoffs last year but shot 0% against Anaheim.
 

Dack

Registered User
Jun 16, 2014
3,911
3,544
A couple things I found that I though were worth sharing.

1. Why Flames rookie Mark Jankowski looks like he's here to stay - Sportsnet.ca

Some interesting stats on Janko I've liked him more than I thought I would so far. Hope he continues to play well and gets a little more puckluck.

2.
The thing that kind of catches my eye about Calgary is that they're a team that I perceive to have some real depth issues up front but they don't really try to mitigate that by getting more minutes from their top forwards. The first line plays less than a typical first line. The Backlund line doesn't play much more than the typical second line. The fourth line plays more than the typical fourth line. It's strange, given the makeup of their team.

The fact that the Johnny Gaudreau/Sean Monahan line is playing less than you'd expect while the fourth line plays more than you'd expect is very easy to see here. Over the course of the season, the Monahan line will play about 60 fewer minutes than a typical first line if things continue as they have. An interesting question for the Flames to consider would be whether they're getting fewer minutes out of that line in high leverage situations – situations where the game is on the line. It's one thing to pull back on the Monahan line in games like last night's loss to Philadelphia but if Calgary's doing it with the score close as well, they might be leaving some value on the table.

The funny thing about Calgary's equitable usage of the forwards is that it definitely isn't happening with the defencemen. The third pair gets fewer minutes and is heavily sheltered from top six forwards. Subject to issues of guys burning out, this seems pretty sensible to me.
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
- Tyler Dellow

So Gulutzan does actually play the 4th line.


3. Tkachuk. While no one on the 3M line is getting the puck right now Tkachuk sticks out to me as the most interesting.

Currently his 5v5 on ice shooting percentage is 6.1 and his own shooting percentage is 6.1. That's really bad luck ,those percentages are often enough for players to really underperform. Yet Tkachuk is actually outpacing his rookie season which is incredible with a little more I think he could be a 60-70 point player.
 

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