Analytics & fancy stats thread

Dertell

Registered User
Jul 14, 2015
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474
Nearly every time stats like corsi is brought up on this board, it sparks a debate about their worth. Thought it make sense to have a thread to discuss them.
 

Volica

Papa Shango
May 15, 2012
21,391
11,074
This is going to go over like a lead balloon. There are certain posters that if you mention anything about advance stats they go nutty :laugh:
 

BigRangy

Get well soon oliver
Mar 17, 2015
3,407
1,110
Advance stats are great, but they're so limited for us onlookers compared to what the actual teams use. I guarantee that Hartley's system, no matter how dumb we think it is, results in favorable ratings in whatever advanced stats scheme the Flames use. I have my hunches on why his strategy is the way it is, but without numbers I cannot test them.

Regardless, the team still has a lot to work on before they can become competitive imo.
 

Johnny Hoxville

The Return of a Legend
Jul 15, 2006
37,549
9,343
Calgary
He did, and it went over like a lead balloon.

I'm not an analytics guy but I always enjoy reading differing opinions (even if I think they're stupid lol). For the record, I don't think analytics are stupid, but I don't believe that should be ones main view to evaluate the game.
 

Anglesmith

Setting up the play?
Sep 17, 2012
46,441
14,715
Victoria
I think advanced stats are an honest attempt to solve a real problem. I do not think they are 100% successful in answering the questions people use them for, but neither is any method of analysis. The only problem I have with the field is how it's treated by some. That's all.

I mean, when it comes down to it, I appreciate the scientific approach and the attempt to sort variables to isolate others, but hockey is a wildly chaotic system, and to even begin to get something useful, you need huge underlying assumptions like "the quality of all shot attempts even out over a large sample size" and "there is no significant difference between how teams play."
 

Dertell

Registered User
Jul 14, 2015
2,923
474
Advance stats are great, but they're so limited for us onlookers compared to what the actual teams use. I guarantee that Hartley's system, no matter how dumb we think it is, results in favorable ratings in whatever advanced stats scheme the Flames use. I have my hunches on why his strategy is the way it is, but without numbers I cannot test them.

Regardless, the team still has a lot to work on before they can become competitive imo.
I've never been a fan of the scoring chance argument, mostly because I see scoring chance against as random events and strategies favoring scoring chance for as dangerous defensively.

But still, being more complicated doesn't equal better. It came up at the flames' pre-trade deadline fan forum, according to their internal stats, CGY are an above average scoring chance team this season by a crazy amount - iirc, something like 66 scoring chance%. I get it's just one season, but I don't think there's a single team since 2006 who had a >57 SA Corsi% and didn't reach the conference final. This "66% scoring chance" flames team won't even finish this year with 80 points. I'll admit I hadn't considered Hartley was just listening to the flames' analytic department before I heard about this. But to me, this is interpreted as the latter being at fault for the bad systems/line usage instead the former (if that case).
 
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Bounces R Way

Registered User
Nov 18, 2013
33,476
52,667
Weegartown
the-numbers-mason-what-do-they-mean.jpg


I have at best a cursory understanding of advanced stats. Therefore I distrust them like an old man distrusting his smartphone.
 

Starix

Registered User
Jan 31, 2015
122
0
I would like a time based possession stat, you can pass the puck around for 5 minutes and if you don't try to shoot it's not reflected in possession stats.
 

Dertell

Registered User
Jul 14, 2015
2,923
474
How different are Hartley's systems from Ruff's systems in Dallas? The Stars seem to play very similarily, just much better, than us.
Stars makes a lot of short passes.

Flames love the bomb, but aside from that there's little-to-no passing game when they're not putting pressure.
 

Lunatik

Normal is an illusion.
Oct 12, 2012
56,176
8,337
Padded Room
the problem with the advanced stats are the people who use them, they are usually the least knowledgeable people and think it replaces watching games.
 

Kranix

Deranged Homer
Jun 27, 2012
18,122
16,151
Do they measure "Passes to a player in scoring position?" is that part of Corsica Fenway or whatever?
 

Dertell

Registered User
Jul 14, 2015
2,923
474
In the first 15 games (except game 11-12), I counted the number of completed/attempted transition zone passes done by the six defensemen who have played for the flames so far. That is to say, a pass going north which is either first catched by the receiver's hands or stick and kept possession long enough to make a decision. Shifted my focus to other stuff because it was really boring and annoying.


Statsheet n data here.
 

InfinityIggy

Zagidulin's Dad
Jan 30, 2011
36,068
12,852
59.6097709,16.5425901
In the first 15 games (except game 11-12), I counted the number of completed/attempted transition zone passes done by the six defensemen who have played for the flames so far. That is to say, a pass going north which is either first catched by the receiver's hands or stick and kept possession long enough to make a decision. Shifted my focus to other stuff because it was really boring and annoying.


Statsheet n data here.

Russell at 18.95% is...just wow.
 

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