Confirmed with Link: [ANA/TOR/CAR] Ilya Lyubushkin (75% retained) for 2025 3rd round pick - CAR receives 6th round pick for additional retention

[Kalv]

Dostal, Siderov, Pastujov, Hinds from fairly recent drafts. We’ll see how they end up, but certainly good prospects and Dostal looking like the future starter.

Only Dostal with some result here. Freddie was also a 3rd rounder

 

[Terry Yake]

Never have I ever seen a more incompetent group of fans in my life than the Ducks fans complaining about this trade on the Ducks Facebook page. My god it’s embarrassing that they even associate themselves with this team.

ducks fans on facebook are hilarious. i don't use it anymore, but i still like to login whenever there's something notable happening with the team for a good laugh

most of them are clearly just casual fans who are wondering why the ducks weren't able to get matthews in return

 

[ScarTroy]

I’m not arguing the asset management (although Jamie was traded with a 2nd). I’m arguing that a 3rd round pick is worth next to nothing.

Roughly 1 out of every 10 3rd round picks play in the NHL. The probability of them becoming an impact player is even lower.

2nd round picks is roughly 3/10, which I assume you still think is near worthless, but try telling that to the Dallas Stars.

 

[Ducks]

Why even bother for a 3rd, 4th, 5th…..those later round picks have zero value IMO. I get wanting to ship him off but Lyubushkin is worth more than that. He’s a serviceable NHL defenseman.

Never underestimate Madden's abillity to find quality players in the later rounds of the draft.

Some 3rd and later draft picks from Ducks over the years:

2009 Sami Vatanen, 4th Round
2011 Josh Manson, 6th Round
2012 Frederik Andersen, 3rd Round
2014 Ondrej Kase, 7th Round
2015 Troy Terry, 5th Round
2016 Josh Mahura, 3rd Round
2018 Lukas Dostal, 3rd Round
2019 Henry Thrun, 4th Round
2021 Tyson Hinds, 3rd Round

And that's not including our 2023 late round selections, where we have Sidorov, Pitre, and Dionicio who all have a legit shot at playing NHL games in the future.

 

[eaterfan]

I’m not saying we can.

What im saying is the chances of the 3rd round pick becoming an NHLer, even for the equivalent of the 30 or so games Lyubushkin will play for the Leafs, is extremely low.

I don't think the goal is to play NHL games. Ducks will play at least 82 of them, unless there's a disaster, for the foreseeable future. The goal is to make the playoffs and win the Stanley Cup.

There's a very low chance the 3rd round pick will be a contributor on a Ducks team that does either of those things. It's still much higher than the chances Lyubushkin would have.

 

[JAHV]

I’m not arguing the asset management (although Jamie was traded with a 2nd). I’m arguing that a 3rd round pick is worth next to nothing.

Roughly 1 out of every 10 3rd round picks play in the NHL. The probability of them becoming an impact player is even lower.

I was curious about your 1 in 10 figure. Just some quick eyeballing - from 2014-2017, it's about five guys per season who have played 100 games in the NHL to this point (1 in 6). Before that, it's about 10 guys per season (1 in 3). I didn't really look at "impact" but those are guys who have played more than a season, so teams think they can contribute at least.

This brings up two thoughts.

1. The odds of those guys playing in the NHL are better than your figures. Third rounders take longer, on average, to make the NHL, and there's certainly less chance, but it's not 10%.

2. That said, because it takes longer, what are the odds that a given third round pick is going to be an NHL player with the team that drafted him? I don't have the time to look into that, but I suspect that a lot of these guys might shuffle around before they stick, or be included as throw-ins to deals. So while the chance that a 3rd round draft pick becomes an NHL player is greater than 10%, the chance that a 3rd round pick becomes an NHL player FOR THE TEAM THAT DRAFTS HIM might very well be that low. But that would need further analysis.

Anyway, I don't think a 3rd round pick is next to nothing. It has value. I think the 4th round is when these things start becoming closer to lottery tickets.

 

[Henrique Iglesias]

I was curious about your 1 in 10 figure. Just some quick eyeballing - from 2014-2017, it's about five guys per season who have played 100 games in the NHL to this point (1 in 6). Before that, it's about 10 guys per season (1 in 3). I didn't really look at "impact" but those are guys who have played more than a season, so teams think they can contribute at least.

This brings up two thoughts.

1. The odds of those guys playing in the NHL are better than your figures. Third rounders take longer, on average, to make the NHL, and there's certainly less chance, but it's not 10%.

2. That said, because it takes longer, what are the odds that a given third round pick is going to be an NHL player with the team that drafted him? I don't have the time to look into that, but I suspect that a lot of these guys might shuffle around before they stick, or be included as throw-ins to deals. So while the chance that a 3rd round draft pick becomes an NHL player is greater than 10%, the chance that a 3rd round pick becomes an NHL player FOR THE TEAM THAT DRAFTS HIM might very well be that low. But that would need further analysis.

Anyway, I don't think a 3rd round pick is next to nothing. It has value. I think the 4th round is when these things start becoming closer to lottery tickets.

The two sites I looked at had it at around 13-14% chance of playing more than 100 games. Slightly greater than 1 in 10.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I’m not saying we can.

What im saying is the chances of the 3rd round pick becoming an NHLer, even for the equivalent of the 30 or so games Lyubushkin will play for the Leafs, is extremely low.

Yes, but you can trade a 3rd round pick for a player - Lybushkin cost a 4th, so a 3rd can be used to get a player better than Lybushkin next year. A pick can be added to another trade for an even better player. A 3rd still has a 10-20% chance of becoming an NHL player. The team is clearly in tank mode for the last 23 games. This opens a roster spot for current prospects, and yields a spot if we want to try to get Moore to sign.

Every single one of those is a better outcome than having a zero % chance of a player if he walks. How much money and term would you be willing to dedicate to n about to be 30 player who is never going to be better than a 6D?

 

[cheesymc]

I’m not arguing the asset management (although Jamie was traded with a 2nd). I’m arguing that a 3rd round pick is worth next to nothing.

Roughly 1 out of every 10 3rd round picks play in the NHL. The probability of them becoming an impact player is even lower.

I love 2nd and 3rd round picks. Alot of talented players that are passed up for their imperfections such as height, etc. I think these rounds are where the scouts prove their worth.

 

[JAHV]

The two sites I looked at had it at around 13-14% chance of playing more than 100 games. Slightly greater than 1 in 10.

Granted, I only looked at about 10 years, but that figure isn't supported by the data, unless they're including all the draft years after 2017. Each individual year prior to 2018 is, by itself, higher than 13%, and the average would have to be approaching at least 20%. Heck, from 2011-2013, the figure is something like 39%. That's not normal, but it brings the average way up.

Of course, if you include 2018-2023 in your calculation, that would drive the number down. But that's misleading, since those players have not had a chance to make their way to the NHL yet.

 

[lwvs84]

Granted, I only looked at about 10 years, but that figure isn't supported by the data, unless they're including all the draft years after 2017. Each individual year prior to 2018 is, by itself, higher than 13%, and the average would have to be approaching at least 20%. Heck, from 2011-2013, the figure is something like 39%. That's not normal, but it brings the average way up.

Of course, if you include 2018-2023 in your calculation, that would drive the number down. But that's misleading, since those players have not had a chance to make their way to the NHL yet.

Not to mention it doesn't take into account the strength of the scouting department. Ducks have had one of the better ones, so there's probably a slightly higher chance of getting a guy that can eventually contribute.

 

[FiveTacos]

Yes, but you can trade a 3rd round pick for a player - Lybushkin cost a 4th, so a 3rd can be used to get a player better than Lybushkin next year.

Who can then be flipped for a 2nd, which can be flipped for another player ....

In a few years we'll have turned Lyubushkin into a 1st overall pick!

And I official dub this strategy as "Verbeeking" ... "Verbeekening?" ... Lemme workshop it.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Who can then be flipped for a 2nd, which can be flipped for another player ....

In a few years we'll have turned Lyubushkin into a 1st overall pick!

And I official dub this strategy as "Verbeeking" ... "Verbeekening?" ... Lemme workshop it.

Verbeekenating.

I already trademarked “Verbeekening” for the annual trade deadline purges.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

With Fowler likely missing several games I’d go with

Mintyukov-Gudas
Zellweger-Vaakanainen
LaCombe-Lindstrom
Hagg

I do wonder with Bush moved and Fowler injured, if we look for a cap dump dmen… I think lindstrom has been alright… I really don’t want to see Hagg playing.

Curious if there are any dmen that are seen as cap dumps signed this year and next or at least cheap to acquire

 

[duxfan1101]

I do wonder with Bush moved and Fowler injured, if we look for a cap dump dmen… I think lindstrom has been alright… I really don’t want to see Hagg playing.

Curious if there are any dmen that are seen as cap dumps signed this year and next or at least cheap to acquire

Oilers are most likely going to try and dump Ceci somewhere. He has 1 more year on his deal after this year.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Oilers are most likely going to try and dump Ceci somewhere. He has 1 more year on his deal after this year.

hmm I’d like that, ceci has been pretty solid for them if I recall…. Maybe make it a big deal.

2024 1st, ceci, mcleod, + pick/prospect
For
Henrique at 50% + carrick

Rock out
Vatrano mctavish terry
killorn carlsson zegras
gauthier lundestrom strome
Johnston McLeod leason - maybe nester/regenda in for Johnston vs lighter teams

 

[FiveTacos]

Verbeekenating.

I already trademarked “Verbeekening” for the annual trade deadline purges.

Maybe this is surge pricing for the Verbeekenator.

 

[Henrique Iglesias]

Granted, I only looked at about 10 years, but that figure isn't supported by the data, unless they're including all the draft years after 2017. Each individual year prior to 2018 is, by itself, higher than 13%, and the average would have to be approaching at least 20%. Heck, from 2011-2013, the figure is something like 39%. That's not normal, but it brings the average way up.

Of course, if you include 2018-2023 in your calculation, that would drive the number down. But that's misleading, since those players have not had a chance to make their way to the NHL yet.

I would concede the numbers I looked at are low, but even at 20-30% the numbers aren't great. It is better to get something for Bush than nothing, but I still persist that a 3rd rounder is a low value asset.

 

[Henrique Iglesias]

Oilers are most likely going to try and dump Ceci somewhere. He has 1 more year on his deal after this year.

They've been ridiculously healthy and I think that luck will end at some point. If they try to upgrade Ceci, I would keep him in case of an injury. They may not be able to for cap reasons though.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I would concede the numbers I looked at are low, but even at 20-30% the numbers aren't great. It is better to get something for Bush than nothing, but I still persist that a 3rd rounder is a low value asset.

Lybushkin is a low value asset to be fair

Lybushkin served his purpose… got Mintyukov comfortable at the nhl lvl, but now he’s somewhat holding the defense back… getting a 3 for him is a steal

They've been ridiculously healthy and I think that luck will end at some point. If they try to upgrade Ceci, I would keep him in case of an injury. They may not be able to for cap reasons though.

Def more of a cap causality…. They can find depth pieces for a lot less cap.

 

[JAHV]

I would concede the numbers I looked at are low, but even at 20-30% the numbers aren't great. It is better to get something for Bush than nothing, but I still persist that a 3rd rounder is a low value asset.

I agree that it's low value. But Verbeek did well here - turned a 4th round pick into a season of mentorship for Mintyukov + a 3rd rounder. Yeah, it's on the margins, but I think it matters.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Dostal, Siderov, Pastujov, Hinds from fairly recent drafts. We’ll see how they end up, but certainly good prospects and Dostal looking like the future starter.

Less recent but Madden era: Freddie Andersen, Moore, Mahura and Welinski.
In pre Madden era the Ducks best 3rd rounder was Niclas Havelid who had 171 points in 628 career games in NHL
Pretty good record on goalies in the 3rd for Madden, even Bobkov who busted became a great KHL goalie. Welinski and Mahura made the NHL at least and Mahura appears to be good enough to be a bottom pair guy on an average team.....was in cup finals last year.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Just when I finally learned how to spell his name...

 

[Ducks DVM]

Maybe this is surge pricing for the Verbeekenator.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I would concede the numbers I looked at are low, but even at 20-30% the numbers aren't great. It is better to get something for Bush than nothing, but I still persist that a 3rd rounder is a low value asset.

What kind of asset do you think a 6-7D rental is worth? Can you find examples of comparable players who were traded for more? And again, whatever we get back is infinitely more valuable than him walking away for nothing.