An Anti-Attendance Thread: Info on Gate Receipts

[Egil]

During the tech boom (1998-2000) and despite the crappy Canadian dollar (0.65 US), OTTAWA (the same size as Edmonton and Calgary), with a large chunk of the population working for the federal government, was in top 10 in the NHL in adverstising revenue (which is the only "corporate support" that matters. I see no reason why Calgary (especially) and to a lesser extent Edmonton can't be in a similar situation now with the oil boom.

 

[Hawker14]

Are you kidding? Atlanta is booming from all directions. HQs for Coke, Home Depot, Delta, UPS to say a few. It is just under the size of Toronto and WW economic center. So many WW, National and regional HQs you can not even mention them. Oil is good, but it is a one sided panel. Also HQs for Arby's, Chick-Fil-A, Earthlink, Equifax, Georgia-Pacific, Southern Company, SunTrust Banks. That is just some of the WW/national HQs.

Over 1.1M people moved there in the last 10 years.

My horse is Atlanta on this one.

Do you really want to hitch your horse to a team that received a revenue sharing check, instead of one that wrote one ?

 

[Fugu]

Very fair points.

OK, so let me ask you this, what % of the CBA defined revenues would you estimate come from gate revenues? If we include preseason, regular season and playoff dates in that total number? I'm not looking for a perfect answer, just a ballpark figure.

Because we have heard for years that it is gate driven league, and now it seems to me we finally have some data that should allow us to make an assessment of veracity of that statement.

You'll be sorry you asked, but here are my estimates with qualified assumptions:


With all due respect, we should qualify the Levitt figures cited previously. First of all, what was defined as hockey related revenues (HRR) was changed for the new CBA, which resulted in 2003-04 reported revenues of $2.1 B to be closer to $2.3 B if we’re comparing apples to apples. I think the ‘additional’ HRR was the inclusion of certain in-arena revenues; that may not be all of it. Furthermore, when comparing the 2002-03 figures to today’s, the value of the Canadian dollar has to be considered, but we do not know which rate the NHL applied for the earlier reports.

Secondly, the amount of money the NHL was getting from its contracts with ABC/ESPN has changed as well, thus the pre-lockout ‘relative proportions’ cannot be carried over. From 1999 – 2003, the NHL received $120 MM/yr from ABC/ESPN/ESPN2. OLN/VS now pays $67.5 MM. NBC shares revenue, but the amount the NHL has received has not been published. For the known figures, this is a loss of $52.5 MM under the NHL US Broadcast Deals category. Adjusting for this, using Levitt, we deduct $52.5 MM from the $449 MM = $396.5 MM.

To start, let’s use Andrew’s NHL revenues for the last three seasons, including the Levitt figures, then make some corrections an assumptions:
2003 $1.996 B
2004 $2.083
2005 $0
2006 $2.178

Extrapolating the Gate Receipts to a full season of 41 games would yield revenues of $985.1 MM. (Levitt = $886 MM)

4 pre-season games per team at the reg. season rate per team =$96.1 MM. (Levitt = $50 MM)

Playoff Estimates:
1st Round = Inclusion of 16 teams playing (8 matches), on average 6 games per series, with a 50% premium over regular season prices would yield gate receipts of $61.85 MM.
2nd Round = 8 teams playing, on average 6 games per series, with a 100% premium over regular season prices would yield gate receipts of $41.2 MM.
3rd Round = 4 teams playing, on average 6 games per series, with a 150% premium over regular season prices would yield gate receipts of $25.78 MM.
4th Round = 2 teams playing, on average 6 games for the Cup, with a 200% premium over regular season prices would yield gate receipts of $15.46 MM.
TOTAL = $144 MM (Levitt = $111 MM)

If the premia over regular season prices are higher with a trend of 100, 150, 200, 250, and 300%, the TOTAL = $185.6 MM. A feasible figure if the higher priced markets compete, but I’ll use the lower figure for the rest of the exercise.

In-Arena Revenues per Levitt = $401 MM
Assume 5% per year increases = $464 MM

Grand Total
Gate Receipts
(a) Reg Season $985.1 MM
(b) Pre-season $96.1 MM
(c) Playoffs $144 MM
In-arena (est.) $464 MM
TV/Broadcast $396.5 MM
Other $98.4 MM (5% per annum increase since ’03)

TOTAL = $2.184 B

The more generous playoff ticket pricing would yield a grand total of $2.225 B.

Gate-driven should not be confused with Gate Receipts. The amount of money the In-arena + Gate Receipts based on my estimates would mean that 1.689 B of the $2.184 B was from gate-driven activity (e.g., if the fans ain’t in the arena, you can’t sell them In-arena ‘stuff’…). That means that 77% of total HRR is gate-driven.

Also there is quite a bit of play in the pre-season and playoff numbers because the regular season averages may not apply AND the mix of teams in the playoffs can affect these numbers significantly. So too can Canadian team involvement in this mix due to the need to translate currency… and as we all know, that number does fluctuate.

 

[Enstrom39]

I am going to jump in the middle of this, so forgive me if I am running off on a tangent.

First of all, I would suggest a little stronger fact checking before getting into the math. The city of Edmonton has a population of 700,000. The Edmonton Metro is just over 1 million. You already shorted it by 300,000 people, which obviously throws all of your population based estimates off.

That, however, does not change your overall point: that Atlanta has a much, much larger market to draw from. However, while there is a larger market, the real question is how likely that market is to support the team.

There are undoubtably more corporations in Atlanta than Edmonton, and probably, the Thrashers are better off than the Oilers in terms of real dollars generated from corporate support. I wonder if you have any information on that for these two teams, or any others? You said Atlanta is in the top third, was there a story or chart posted in another thread? I would be interested to read it.

However, in terms of the metro area, one also has to consider that the Atlanta market is divided, where Edmonton's is not. The Oilers are *the* team in Edmonton. The only competition of note for sporting dollars are an NLL team. Next year there will also be a WHL team that the Oilers themselves own.

The Thrashers have to compete with the NBA's Hawks, as well as an AFL and an ECHL team in the market. There is also, of course, college football and basketball to compete with. So while there are more people, and more dollars available, the Thrashers are in heavy competition for those dollars with other sports that have greater interest in the Atlanta market, where the Oilers have a near monopoly.

I'm sorry if I understated the EDM metro area. I'm not as familiar with where to get good info on Canadian Census figures. I did a quick google search and found a wikipedia entry that listed 700,000. However even if it is 1,000,000 the ATL metro is still 5,000,000 which is a huge difference in terms of population and the economy.

Your second point about the Thrashers competing with in the market with other sports teams is quite correct. The NHL most compete against all entertainment alternatives including pro sports, college sports, minor league sports, movies, concets, shows, etc. I'm sure that the Oilers will always dominate the EDM markplace--but they also NEED to dominate the marketplace given how small it is market is compared to other NHL cities. A good US analogy of EDM is Buffalo which is not a very large market. The Saberes NEED to dominate that to support a NHL franchise given their modest population base.

Football is king in the south and certainly gets way more attention down here. The one thing I would throw out there is that there some important differences between those entertainment options. It is worth keeping in mind that both college and pro football teams have fewer than 10 home games per season and in some respects they are marketing a different sort of event. People treat each football home game like a major party with all day long tailgating and drinking. (Hurricans fans to do this sometimes but it is rare to see at a Thrashers game.)

I'd say that the Hawks and Braves offer a more comparable product to the Thrashers. The Braves are largely in operation during the summer so there is less head-to-head competition on that front. The Hawks season certainly overlaps with the Thrashers and they share the same building. But there significant differences in the appeal. For example, you very large number of African-Americans at Hawks games and only a handful come out for hockey, so to some degree they may not be competing for the same sports entertainment dollars (of course the Thrashers would like to see more

I'd love to see a marketing firm do some survey research on interest in hockey in the Atlanta area. My guess is that among the African-American community interest is fairly low. Then I'd guess that among native southerners the interest is a bit higher, still rather low. Finally, I say that among those born in the northern states it is quite a bit higher.

I lhave ooked at US Census numbers a while back and both Atlanta and Dallas have close to 750,000 residents who were born in the north and thus probably have greater exposure and interest in hockey. I've been a Thrashers season ticket holder since 2001 and among the other season ticket holders that I know I'd say 80% of them are from Michigan, Ohio, Chicago area, New England New York and Pennsylvania (as well as Canada) the home of the original six teams.

My personal belief is that us Yankees are the seaon ticket foundation for the franchise and the task of the marketing and sales department is to win over more people who have never seen a hockey game in their life (and there are millions of them here).

 

[Doc Scurlock]

I'm sorry if I understated the EDM metro area. I'm not as familiar with where to get good info on Canadian Census figures. I did a quick google search and found a wikipedia entry that listed 700,000. However even if it is 1,000,000 the ATL metro is still 5,000,000 which is a huge difference in terms of population and the economy.

Your second point about the Thrashers competing with in the market with other sports teams is quite correct. The NHL most compete against all entertainment alternatives including pro sports, college sports, minor league sports, movies, concets, shows, etc. I'm sure that the Oilers will always dominate the EDM markplace--but they also NEED to dominate the marketplace given how small it is market is compared to other NHL cities. A good US analogy of EDM is Buffalo which is not a very large market. The Saberes NEED to dominate that to support a NHL franchise given their modest population base.

Football is king in the south and certainly gets way more attention down here. The one thing I would throw out there is that there some important differences between those entertainment options. It is worth keeping in mind that both college and pro football teams have fewer than 10 home games per season and in some respects they are marketing a different sort of event. People treat each football home game like a major party with all day long tailgating and drinking. (Hurricans fans to do this sometimes but it is rare to see at a Thrashers game.)

I'd say that the Hawks and Braves offer a more comparable product to the Thrashers. The Braves are largely in operation during the summer so there is less head-to-head competition on that front. The Hawks season certainly overlaps with the Thrashers and they share the same building. But there significant differences in the appeal. For example, you very large number of African-Americans at Hawks games and only a handful come out for hockey, so to some degree they may not be competing for the same sports entertainment dollars (of course the Thrashers would like to see more

I'd love to see a marketing firm do some survey research on interest in hockey in the Atlanta area. My guess is that among the African-American community interest is fairly low. Then I'd guess that among native southerners the interest is a bit higher, still rather low. Finally, I say that among those born in the northern states it is quite a bit higher.

I lhave ooked at US Census numbers a while back and both Atlanta and Dallas have close to 750,000 residents who were born in the north and thus probably have greater exposure and interest in hockey. I've been a Thrashers season ticket holder since 2001 and among the other season ticket holders that I know I'd say 80% of them are from Michigan, Ohio, Chicago area, New England New York and Pennsylvania (as well as Canada) the home of the original six teams.

My personal belief is that us Yankees are the seaon ticket foundation for the franchise and the task of the marketing and sales department is to win over more people who have never seen a hockey game in their life (and there are millions of them here).

And when over half the people in the city are African-American, well then you might have yourself a problem.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/13/1304000.html

 

[bleed_oil]

Look I am perfectly willing to concede that the average Albertan is more willing to play money for NHL tickets, but I think that Atlanta is way ahead of Edmonton in terms of the corporate economy.

Just think about this, your local economy supports roughly 700,000 people who live in the EDM metro area. The Atlanta metro has approx 5,000,000 people who live and work here. Our metro area is 700% larger than Edmonton, are you really going to try and argue that EDM economy is bigger? Even with higher oil revenues at the moment, I find it very hard to believe that the economy is larger than ATL metro.

I'm not trying to be mean, but there is a reason why I think that in the long run Atlanta will be a solid hockey market. Atlanta is so big in terms of population and the economy that it only requires a fraction of the market to fall in love with hockey for hockey to flourish here. I think Dallas is a perfect example of this. Does everyone in Dallas love hockey? Heck no. Are the Stars a success, absolutely. That's because Dallas has a) filed a competitive team and b) is a massive metro area.

Huge metro areas like Dallas, Atlanta, Anaheim, Phoenix have certain advantages over smaller markets like Carolina, Nashville, and Buffalo. We don't need every person to love hockey for there to be sufficient support for a NHL franchise. People love and adore hockey in Edmonton and Calgary and Buffalo--and that is great, because you need a higher percentage of your residents to turn out and buy tickets.

Let's say the goal of a NHL franchise is sellout their building with season tickets. Let's say you have roughly 17,000 season tickets you need to sell. In Edmonton that means that you would need one out of every 41 people in the metro area to become season ticket holders to reach 17,000 STH. In Atlanta because of the huge population you only need one out of every 294 people to buy season tickets to reach that number. Roughly speaking EDM needs about 2.5% of their population to buy season tickets while ATL would only need .3% of the population to do so.

wow, your points blows up in you face with your very first line. Anyone who knows anything aout the area would tell you there are over a million in the metro area here....
Yes Atlanta has a huge market and plenty of coporations. But from all available evidence a very, very small percentage of people in that market care for hockey so why should I agree with your assertion that the team has among the better coroporate support in the NHL?
Why would a coporation see fit to invest valuble money in a franchise the local population doesnt seem to care for? I know that local companies here in Edmonton would see a large return on investment for any money associated with the Oilers, I dont see why that would be the case in Atlanta with the relatively tiny fraction of people who support the team. Why not invest the money in some Div1 basketball, NFL, NBA, MLB or NASCAR if you are a coporation? If anything your point about the size of your market works against you IMO. In Edmonton our +1million are all about the Oilers and nothing else - not accounting for our rapidly expanding economy. In Atlanta your 5 mill have at least6 major sporting options and from all evidence prefer alternatives to hockey.

 

[GSC2k2*]

I lhave ooked at US Census numbers a while back and both Atlanta and Dallas have close to 750,000 residents who were born in the north and thus probably have greater exposure and interest in hockey.

I find that quite interesting. Effectively, Atlanta's transplanted northerners make a city that is bigger than Winnipeg or many other places that misguided anti-southerners cite as a better "hockey town" (as if such a thing exists).

 

[Enstrom39]

And when over half the people in the city are African-American, well then you might have yourself a problem.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/13/1304000.html

The city of Atlanta population is less than 1/10th of the total Metro Area. In many metro areas in the USA (Boston, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Detroit) the "city" is proper contains just a small segment because the vast majority of the population lives in suburban cities or counties.

City of Atlanta: 400,000
Metro Atlanta: 5,000,000

Next time use the Atlanta Metropolitian Statistical Area when you do a search.

 

[Enstrom39]

I find that quite interesting. Effectively, Atlanta's transplanted northerners make a city that is bigger than Winnipeg or many other places that misguided anti-southerners cite as a better "hockey town" (as if such a thing exists).

This why I continue to make the arguement that sunbelt cities like Dallas, Atlanta, and even Houston are much more likely to become solid NHL cities in the long run. They have huge numbers of northern transplants who live there. By comparison markets like Nashville and Carolina only have about half the number of north transplants--that doesn't mean that hockey can't do well there--but those franchises must win over native southerners to do so.

Here are the number of people who were born in the Northeast or Midwest of the USA and now live in these southern metro areas (using 2000 census data)
Northern Born population by Major Metro Area in the Southern USA
976,000 Phoenix
967,000 Tampa-St. Pete
812,000 Mamia-Dade
718,000 Atlanta
637,000 Dallas
544,000 Orlando
532,000 San Deigo
453,000 Houston
325,000 Norfolk, VA
238,000 Realeigh, NC
235,000 Charlotte, NC
237,000 Jacksonville FL
183,000 Nashville, TN
161,000 San Antonio, TX
138,000 Greensboro, NC
108,000 Memphis, TN

Looking at just at these numbers, if I were the owner of a team that say was moving out of Hartford, CT I would have chosen to put my franchise in a city with at least 500,000 yankees (San Deigo, Houston or Orlando) and not one with under a 250,000--but rich people who are willing to lose money can do whatever they want to do.

The smallest US Yankee market is Buffalo, NY where the metro region (US part at least) totals just 1,100,000. I'm not sure how many Canadians live across the border within driving distance of the Sabres.

 

[Enstrom39]

During the tech boom (1998-2000) and despite the crappy Canadian dollar (0.65 US), OTTAWA (the same size as Edmonton and Calgary), with a large chunk of the population working for the federal government, was in top 10 in the NHL in adverstising revenue (which is the only "corporate support" that matters. I see no reason why Calgary (especially) and to a lesser extent Edmonton can't be in a similar situation now with the oil boom.

Egil: I've never been to Ottawa, but I did live in Washington DC and many national corporations have offices there to represent their interests and they buy tickets and suites to entertain and so forth. My guess is that Ottawa might enjoy something like that, can you comment on that? I also suspect that Ottawa's economcy is probably more stable and less prone to boom and bust cycles which from a franchise owner's point I view I would prefer.

I'm sorry but I simply don't have any hard numbers on corporate support. I asked the Thrashers Press Office and they said those numbers were confidential. I'm working on some other avenues to see if I can find out anything more.

I've tired hard to find some estimates of the economy for Edmonton, but it seem that Census Canada only does Gross Regional Product for Provinces and not cities. Anyway the GRP for the Province of Alberta is as follows:
2004: 188.865 in current Canadian $
2005: 218.433 in current Canadian $
www.stats.gov.nt.ca/Statinfo/Economic/GDP/2006GDP_NOV.pdf

2004: 198.1 Billion in US $
source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_metropolitan_product

Yahoo says the that $1US is trading at $1.15 Canadian, so if we put the Atlanta GRP into Canadian currency it is now $ 227.8. In other words the Atlanta area economy is larger than the entire province of Alberta. I'm not trying to be a jerk here, I'm just trying to demonstrate that it is not unreasonable to think that the Thrashers could rank high in terms of corporate support. This is very large metro area with a lot of wealth, both personal and corporate.

I'm not even going to attempt to estimate what % Edmonton is of the total provice but it seems to me that we can safely say that Alberta supports two NHL franchises with an economy that is smaller than the Atlanta metro region (which is great BTW).

 

[Hawker14]

April 4th:

San Jose @ Anaheim 17,440

Washington @ Atlanta 18,783

- great to see the Thrashers' 2-for-1 Wednesday ticket promotion and $ 15 college tickets got such a great turn out !
http://www.atlantathrashers.com/Tickets.aspx?Levels=2|5|0&CID01=bce2b6cb-1e6b-4493-b02a-43642682b1bc#wed

 

[Hawker14]

This why I continue to make the arguement that sunbelt cities like Dallas, Atlanta, and even Houston are much more likely to become solid NHL cities in the long run. They have huge numbers of northern transplants who live there. By comparison markets like Nashville and Carolina only have about half the number of north transplants--that doesn't mean that hockey can't do well there--but those franchises must win over native southerners to do so.

Here are the number of people who were born in the Northeast or Midwest of the USA and now live in these southern metro areas (using 2000 census data)
Northern Born population by Major Metro Area in the Southern USA
976,000 Phoenix
967,000 Tampa-St. Pete
812,000 Mamia-Dade
718,000 Atlanta
637,000 Dallas
544,000 Orlando
532,000 San Deigo
453,000 Houston
325,000 Norfolk, VA
238,000 Realeigh, NC
235,000 Charlotte, NC
237,000 Jacksonville FL
183,000 Nashville, TN
161,000 San Antonio, TX
138,000 Greensboro, NC
108,000 Memphis, TN

Looking at just at these numbers, if I were the owner of a team that say was moving out of Hartford, CT I would have chosen to put my franchise in a city with at least 500,000 yankees (San Deigo, Houston or Orlando) and not one with under a 250,000--but rich people who are willing to lose money can do whatever they want to do.

The smallest US Yankee market is Buffalo, NY where the metro region (US part at least) totals just 1,100,000. I'm not sure how many Canadians live across the border within driving distance of the Sabres.

As long as non-traditional markets keep winning the Cup, what's the problem ?

Can Tampa and Carolina not hold their own ?

 

[Enstrom39]

wow, your points blows up in you face with your very first line. Anyone who knows anything aout the area would tell you there are over a million in the metro area here....

I used the city of EDM population, a mistake someone else just made with respect to ATL.

Yes Atlanta has a huge market and plenty of coporations. But from all available evidence a very, very small percentage of people in that market care for hockey so why should I agree with your assertion that the team has among the better coroporate support in the NHL?
Why would a coporation see fit to invest valuble money in a franchise the local population doesnt seem to care for?...Why not invest the money in some Div1 basketball, NFL, NBA, MLB or NASCAR if you are a coporation? If anything your point about the size of your market works against you IMO. In Edmonton our +1 million are all about the Oilers and nothing else - not accounting for our rapidly expanding economy. In Atlanta your 5 mill have at least6 major sporting options and from all evidence prefer alternatives to hockey.

A) The Thrashers had very strong attendance at first. The team has been pretty terrible over the years. Seven years without a playoff appearance? There are many many markets where that sort of terrible play would produce little excitement.

B) Why would anyone advertise at NHL games in Atlanta? Demographics! The same reason people buy commercials on NHL games that have low ratings. Compared to other sports (NFL, NBA) hockey watchers are better educated, are more internet savvy and have more disposable income. If you make luxery cars you want to advertise someplace where people with money go. For exampe, BMW, Volvo, Hummer are all sponsers of the Thrashers and get mentioned each home game. For several seasons a local homebuilding company has given away a home because people who go to Thrasher games have the money to buy houses. Home Deport supports the team because many STH are home owners...and so on.

C) Everyone's bullish about Edmonton's economy right now, but when you are heavily tied to one product you suffer boom and bust times (see Detroit and autos). Atlanta has a very diversified economy and good weather which will power future growth down the road. If oil prices stabilize or drop and the Canadian dollar declines the Oilers could easily find themselves back in a bind.

 

[Hawker14]

I used the city of EDM population, a mistake someone else just made with respect to ATL.



A) The Thrashers had very strong attendance at first. The team has been pretty terrible over the years. Seven years without a playoff appearance? There are many many markets where that sort of terrible play would produce little excitement.

B) Why would anyone advertise at NHL games in Atlanta? Demographics! The same reason people buy commercials on NHL games that have low ratings. Compared to other sports (NFL, NBA) hockey watchers are better educated, are more internet savvy and have more disposable income. If you make luxery cars you want to advertise someplace where people with money go. For exampe, BMW, Volvo, Hummer are all sponsers of the Thrashers and get mentioned each home game. For several seasons a local homebuilding company has given away a home because people who go to Thrasher games have the money to buy houses. Home Deport supports the team because many STH are home owners...and so on.

C) Everyone's bullish about Edmonton's economy right now, but when you are heavily tied to one product you suffer boom and bust times (see Detroit and autos). Atlanta has a very diversified economy and good weather which will power future growth down the road. If oil prices stabilize or drop and the Canadian dollar declines the Oilers could easily find themselves back in a bind.

Atlanta doesn't even generate $ 500k per game in gate. the Thrashers are 80% below the league average. It's a dead NHL market. Excellent AHL candidate though.

 

[Doc Scurlock]

The city of Atlanta population is less than 1/10th of the total Metro Area. In many metro areas in the USA (Boston, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Detroit) the "city" is proper contains just a small segment because the vast majority of the population lives in suburban cities or counties.

City of Atlanta: 400,000
Metro Atlanta: 5,000,000

Next time use the Atlanta Metropolitian Statistical Area when you do a search.

I honestly think your pushing this Metropolitan thing a little too much especially when you consider the size of Atlanta's Metropolitan area. A small comparison.

Edmonton Metro area: 9,417.88 km²
Atlanta Metro area: 21,694 km²

When you're talking stretches in distance of around 80 km from the core of the city itself to some of the outlying counties I think common sense has to take over here and factor in the fact that very few of those people that even are hockey fans will travel that far on a regular basis to watch a hockey game.

 

[Enstrom39]

March 4th:
San Jose @ Anaheim 17,440
Washington @ Atlanta 18,783
- great to see the Thrashers' 2-for-1 Wednesday ticket promotion and $ 15 college tickets got such a great turn out !
http://www.atlantathrashers.com/Tickets.aspx?Levels=2|5|0&CID01=bce2b6cb-1e6b-4493-b02a-43642682b1bc#wed

I took advantage of those deals all the time when I was student. I've taken advantage of something similiar in Pittsburgh several times. The Thrashers have had weeknight specials for years. Nothing new there. What is new is that most weekend games this year have been sellouts or near sellouts. Weeknight games remain tough down here because of sprawl and traffic. The games start at 7:00 and many people find it too difficult to attend on a work night. When I lived in Washington they had the exact same problem.

The really encouraging thing is that weekend games are selling out or coming very close most of the time.The goal is to create the impression of scarcity. Once people figure out you can't just walk up and buy tickets for a game on Friday or Saturday night then they begin to think about investing their money in a ticket package or maybe a half season ticket.

 

[Enstrom39]

I honestly think your pushing this Metropolitan thing a little too much especially when you consider the size of Atlanta's Metropolitan area. A small comparison.

Edmonton Metro area: 9,417.88 km²
Atlanta Metro area: 21,694 km²

When you're talking stretches in distance of around 80 km from the core of the city itself to some of the outlying counties I think common sense has to take over here and factor in the fact that very few of those people that even are hockey fans will travel that far on a regular basis to watch a hockey game.

A) You can chop off those outer ring counties and it will not alter the total population of the metro region that much. Americans are crazy in their willingness to drive long distances and Atlanta is considered the poster child for suburban sprawl.

B) You're just wrong about people not driving to games. I can tell you that the heart of the hockey community does drive a significant distance to get to games. Most of the ice rinks are up in the northern suburbs are a 40 drive from downtown when traffic is good. On weeknights I know people who have 1.5 drive on the way down to the rink. The Thrashers host their "viewing parties far up in the northern suburbs because that is where their STHs live. Honestly, many fans wish that the team didn't play downtown but at a facility up on the north side of the metro area.

 

[Enstrom39]

Atlanta doesn't even generate $ 500k per game in gate. the Thrashers are 80% below the league average. It's a dead NHL market. Excellent AHL candidate though.

Do you always assume that just because something will continue the same way forever? It was sunny today, ergo it will always be sunny.

If I were an NHL owner and picking markets I would choose Atlanta which had 13,000 show up to watch some TERRIBLE hockey teams over Nashville or Carolina where they struggle to get people to watch despite being playoff teams and winning the Cup (CAR).

 

[Hawker14]

Do you always assume that just because something will continue the same way forever? It was sunny today, ergo it will always be sunny.

If I were an NHL owner and picking markets I would choose Atlanta which had 13,000 show up to watch some TERRIBLE hockey teams over Nashville or Carolina where they struggle to get people to watch despite being playoff teams and winning the Cup (CAR).

IGNORE.

 

[Enstrom39]

I guess you'll miss out on your chance to make millions with the Kansas City Cash Sieves.

Kansas City: 1.7 million people
Atlanta: 5.0 million people

I still wouldn't put my team there.

If owned a team my top choices would be
1. Toronto--NYC and LA have 2/3 teams and TOR just 1? I think a 2nd team would do well there, not as well as the Leafs, but well.
2. Houston 4.7 million, + WHA roots.
3. Seattle 3.5 million, natural rivalry with Vancouver
4. Portland 2.8 million and they only have the NBA there.

 

[Enstrom39]

Terrible markets are terrible markets. They all lose money

So nothing ever changes?
So a market that was a Stanley Cup winner is the same as a market that has never seen a playoff game?

 

[Hawker14]

So nothing ever changes?
So a market that was a Stanley Cup winner is the same as a market that has never seen a playoff game?

IGNORE

 

[jamiebez]

I find that quite interesting. Effectively, Atlanta's transplanted northerners make a city that is bigger than Winnipeg or many other places that misguided anti-southerners cite as a better "hockey town" (as if such a thing exists).

Wasn't it Jack Kent Cooke (the former Kings owner) who said they all left Canada because they hated hockey?

 

[bleed_oil]

I find that quite interesting. Effectively, Atlanta's transplanted northerners make a city that is bigger than Winnipeg or many other places that misguided anti-southerners cite as a better "hockey town" (as if such a thing exists).

What a completely irrelevant point. What portion of these "northerners" care for hockey or are hockey fans? Are'nt people from Boston or Chicago "northerners"?

 

[bleed_oil]

A) The Thrashers had very strong attendance at first. The team has been pretty terrible over the years. Seven years without a playoff appearance? There are many many markets where that sort of terrible play would produce little excitement.

B) Why would anyone advertise at NHL games in Atlanta? Demographics! The same reason people buy commercials on NHL games that have low ratings. Compared to other sports (NFL, NBA) hockey watchers are better educated, are more internet savvy and have more disposable income. If you make luxery cars you want to advertise someplace where people with money go. For exampe, BMW, Volvo, Hummer are all sponsers of the Thrashers and get mentioned each home game. For several seasons a local homebuilding company has given away a home because people who go to Thrasher games have the money to buy houses. Home Deport supports the team because many STH are home owners...and so on.

C) Everyone's bullish about Edmonton's economy right now, but when you are heavily tied to one product you suffer boom and bust times (see Detroit and autos). Atlanta has a very diversified economy and good weather which will power future growth down the road. If oil prices stabilize or drop and the Canadian dollar declines the Oilers could easily find themselves back in a bind.

Points A and B have some validity. though I question how relevant they are. Demographics of hockey fans may be quite affluent, but considering how small the market of hard core hockey fans is would make me inclined to believe that any corporation putting siginificant dollars into supporting that team would'nt see much of a return on there money invested.
Point C shows a lack of understanding of the Energy economy and the kind of activity happening in Alberta. Oil sands plants are not short term Oil investing but have more in comman with large scale manufacturing, they are not turned "on" or "off" with prices, but require constant operation thus making them largely independant of base prices.