American Prospect Update Thread - Part 4

[57special]

Yes, but some players simply aren't cut out for college. No interest, or aptitude. Hockey isn't nearly as bad as football and basketball, but let's not kid ourselves that many high end college athletes are taking difficult courses( if any), and burning the midnight oil up studying for their Linear Algebra test. The " college education" that they get is in many cases nothing like what a normal student gets.

 

[DatDude44]

It's usually the more talented Americans that commit to the OHL so they are thinking they have good chance at being 1st round picks. I don't think college route is way more beneficial, some of these talented kids commit to high end college programs and play on the 4th line or are healthy scratches where they could easily be getting top 6 minutes in the CHL.

That’s not the point tho....getting a degree, not having their pro career forced at 20 yrs old where if they don’t “make it” they basically have nothing. If they’re good enough to have professional careers, they wouldn’t be riding the pine in college anyway.

On top of games being weekends and being able to practice and weight train in a more structured environment

 

[JiggsNY]

idk about this, maybe it'll be cool, feels like a haves vs the have nots.
Might not always be super competitive in many years, but it depends if it's NTDP vs only USHL America kids, or all draft eligible American kids (USHL, CHL, Prep, HS, etc.)

 

[William H Bonney]

idk about this, maybe it'll be cool, feels like a haves vs the have nots.
Might not always be super competitive in many years, but it depends if it's NTDP vs only USHL America kids, or all draft eligible American kids (USHL, CHL, Prep, HS, etc.)

I think it will up the intensity of the game. You'll have a bunch of guys that didn't make the NTDP playing against those who did, so they'll want to prove a point beyond just their draft prospects.

I'm not a fan of basically all the NTDP kids getting an invite though by default, which would be even more of a reality with this format.

 

[JiggsNY]

This years team would have been good if they got everyone from all leagues, but they would have been up against the 01 NTDPs.

F: Kaliyev, Brink, Robertson, Mastrosimone, Pinto, Donovan, Farinacci, Toporowski, Silianoff, Huglen, Nodler

D: Johnson, Attard, Brinkman?, Jones, Koster, Webber, idk

G: Wolff, Saville

I'm sure im missing guys, just quickly thinking it out
This is probably the best non-NTDP American year in a long while, wouldnt expect to see teams like that regularly. It's basically gonna be NTDP vs Hlinka squads.

 

[OldScool]

This years team would have been good if they got everyone from all leagues, but they would have been up against the 01 NTDPs.

F: Kaliyev, Brink, Robertson, Mastrosimone, Pinto, Donovan, Farinacci, Toporowski, Silianoff, Huglen, Nodler

D: Johnson, Attard, Brinkman?, Jones, Koster, Webber, idk

G: Wolff, Saville

I'm sure im missing guys, just quickly thinking it out
This is probably the best non-NTDP American year in a long while, wouldnt expect to see teams like that regularly. It's basically gonna be NTDP vs Hlinka squads.

And the 01 NDTPs would win by 5+ goals....

 

[ForumNamePending]

Mother of god... This has got to be the most absurd collection of names this side of college lacrosse.

 

[USHOCKEYUS]

And the 01 NDTPs would win by 5+ goals....

That team LESS a few names beat the same Russia team 2-0 (at the wjac) that beat the u18'a multiple times this year.................
oops

 

[razor ray]

It looks like 2020 is going to be a big year for international/Canadians players and a modicum year for Americans:

 

[sasha barkov]

It looks like 2020 is going to be a big year for international/Canadians players and a light year for Americans:

View attachment 233699

Seems like a lot of ushow, although they aren’t american

 

[William H Bonney]

While 2020 won't be a good draft for us, it would still be surprising if only 2 Americans go in the first round. That list has 3 as they're counting Perrault for USA as he's a dual but he has shown no interest in representing Team USA so he should be listed for Canada here. I doubt we'll have many but it's more likely we get 3+ than 2 in my opinion.

 

[OldScool]

While 2020 won't be a good draft for us, it would still be surprising if only 2 Americans go in the first round. That list has 3 as they're counting Perrault for USA as he's a dual but he has shown no interest in representing Team USA so he should be listed for Canada here. I doubt we'll have many but it's more likely we get 3+ than 2 in my opinion.

Totally agree. Everyone has their own opinions and "lists" but this TPE one is way off in my opinion. There are a few more high end international talents in the 2020 draft but there are also a few American players left off this list that absolutely belong. I get that the 01 USA class is impressive but writing off the 02 USA class is a total swing and miss the other way. Many people underestimate how hard the NTDP 1st season is as they are all 16 playing AGAINST 20 year olds and other nations 16 year olds are playing WITH 20 year olds. Huge difference.


Turcotte in U17 season:
58 games - 18 goals - 45 assists =63 points

Turcotte in U18 season:
37 games - 27 goals - 35 assists = 62 points

Basically same amount of points in 21 less games.

Huge strides are made from NDTP from U17 to U18.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Totally agree. Everyone has their own opinions and "lists" but this TPE one is way off in my opinion. There are a few more high end international talents in the 2020 draft but there are also a few American players left off this list that absolutely belong. I get that the 01 USA class is impressive but writing off the 02 USA class is a total swing and miss the other way. Many people underestimate how hard the NTDP 1st season is as they are all 16 playing AGAINST 20 year olds and other nations 16 year olds are playing WITH 20 year olds. Huge difference.


Turcotte in U17 season:
58 games - 18 goals - 45 assists =63 points

Turcotte in U18 season:
37 games - 27 goals - 35 assists = 62 points

Basically same amount of points in 21 less games.

Huge strides are made from NDTP from U17 to U18.

I think you are putting emphasis on the wrong thing. I don't think anyone is making much of point totals. I think the consensus is that the players in the NTDP for the 2020 draft are not top 10-15 level talents.

 

[OldScool]

I think you are putting emphasis on the wrong thing. I don't think anyone is making much of point totals. I think the consensus is that the players in the NTDP for the 2020 draft are not top 10-15 level talents.

My point is its too early to tell. One crop is playing 16 year olds verse 20 year olds and one crop is playing 16 year olds with 20 year olds. Huge difference.

Case in point - Beniers played U17 and averaged .54 pts per game with the U17s was a 2nd liner with no buzz...called up to and averaged a 1pt per game with U18s. Goes from no one discussing him to a top 10 prospect in 2021 in a few months because he was playing with older players and better players.

From your post earlier in year - "I was very surprised by this call up. I wasn't sure any of them would be called up, but I didn't think Beniers would be a consideration. Kleven, Sanderson, Bordeleau and Smilanic at the very least have played better than Beniers, and I think a few others have also been better. From what I've seen, Beniers works hard, has some skill, and is great in front of the net. He hasn't stood out much though in the games I've seen, so I'm not focusing on his play when I watch the 17's. I wouldn't initially think he looks like a player who will be a lottery pick, but maybe I'm wrong. My initial assessment was that he looks like a late first/second round pick."

 

[OldScool]

My point is its too early to tell. One crop is playing 16 year olds verse 20 year olds and one crop is playing 16 year olds with 20 year olds. Huge difference.

Case in point - Beniers played U17 and averaged .54 pts per game with the U17s was a 2nd liner with no buzz...called up to and averaged a 1pt per game with U18s. Goes from no one discussing him to a top 10 prospect in 2021 in a few months because he was playing with older players and better players.

From your post earlier in year - "I was very surprised by this call up. I wasn't sure any of them would be called up, but I didn't think Beniers would be a consideration. Kleven, Sanderson, Bordeleau and Smilanic at the very least have played better than Beniers, and I think a few others have also been better. From what I've seen, Beniers works hard, has some skill, and is great in front of the net. He hasn't stood out much though in the games I've seen, so I'm not focusing on his play when I watch the 17's. I wouldn't initially think he looks like a player who will be a lottery pick, but maybe I'm wrong. My initial assessment was that he looks like a late first/second round pick."

If Beniers made a huge jump playing with older players and was probably 5th best or so on U17s I am confident Bordeleau/Smilanic/etc would have been just as productive and increased their buzz as well.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

My point is its too early to tell. One crop is playing 16 year olds verse 20 year olds and one crop is playing 16 year olds with 20 year olds. Huge difference.

Case in point - Beniers played U17 and averaged .54 pts per game with the U17s was a 2nd liner with no buzz...called up to and averaged a 1pt per game with U18s. Goes from no one discussing him to a top 10 prospect in 2021 in a few months because he was playing with older players and better players.

From your post earlier in year - "I was very surprised by this call up. I wasn't sure any of them would be called up, but I didn't think Beniers would be a consideration. Kleven, Sanderson, Bordeleau and Smilanic at the very least have played better than Beniers, and I think a few others have also been better. From what I've seen, Beniers works hard, has some skill, and is great in front of the net. He hasn't stood out much though in the games I've seen, so I'm not focusing on his play when I watch the 17's. I wouldn't initially think he looks like a player who will be a lottery pick, but maybe I'm wrong. My initial assessment was that he looks like a late first/second round pick."

I think one can acknowledge your point about the point totals improving from one team to the next, acknowledge that there will be changes in the draft rankings in the next year and also acknowledge that right now we don't have a prospect who is considered a top 10 talent and maybe none in the top 15 either. I think all of us would like some players to emerge to become high picks.

Like with all the supporting cast this year on that U18 team, I think the point totals overrate almost all of them. When you play on a line with Hughes, Caufield, Turcotte, Zegras, Boldy that are putting up so many goals, players such as Beniers, Moynihan, Gildon are going to get their point totals inflated. Once Beniers was put on a lower line at the WJC18, he didn't add much offense, similar to how he played with the U17 team. I never regarded him as a potential top 5 pick in 2021, like some are doing. I don't know the 2021 draft well, but I know the level of talent that goes top 5 in most drafts, and I don't think Beniers has that talent. He has a chance to be a first round pick, but I never subscribed to the big hype towards Beniers. I definitely see the point about Beniers, but I don't think point totals effect draft rankings that much. I think what will get those players moved up in the rankings is improving their NHL projection.

 

[Luc Poitras]

I think one can acknowledge your point about the point totals improving from one team to the next, acknowledge that there will be changes in the draft rankings in the next year and also acknowledge that right now we don't have a prospect who is considered a top 10 talent and maybe none in the top 15 either. I think all of us would like some players to emerge to become high picks.

Like with all the supporting cast this year on that U18 team, I think the point totals overrate almost all of them. When you play on a line with Hughes, Caufield, Turcotte, Zegras, Boldy that are putting up so many goals, players such as Beniers, Moynihan, Gildon are going to get their point totals inflated. Once Beniers was put on a lower line at the WJC18, he didn't add much offense, similar to how he played with the U17 team. I never regarded him as a potential top 5 pick in 2021, like some are doing. I don't know the 2021 draft well, but I know the level of talent that goes top 5 in most drafts, and I don't think Beniers has that talent. He has a chance to be a first round pick, but I never subscribed to the big hype towards Beniers. I definitely see the point about Beniers, but I don't think point totals effect draft rankings that much. I think what will get those players moved up in the rankings is improving their NHL projection.

So this is an interesting conversation. I was speaking to a few people about a few '03 prospects recently. Both great players. One is definitely producing more right now. However both agreed that the other has more untapped potential and definitely plays a more NHL ready game. Who goes higher in the draft? The one who is probably "better" now or the one that projects better?

 

[OldScool]

I think one can acknowledge your point about the point totals improving from one team to the next, acknowledge that there will be changes in the draft rankings in the next year and also acknowledge that right now we don't have a prospect who is considered a top 10 talent and maybe none in the top 15 either. I think all of us would like some players to emerge to become high picks.

Like with all the supporting cast this year on that U18 team, I think the point totals overrate almost all of them. When you play on a line with Hughes, Caufield, Turcotte, Zegras, Boldy that are putting up so many goals, players such as Beniers, Moynihan, Gildon are going to get their point totals inflated. Once Beniers was put on a lower line at the WJC18, he didn't add much offense, similar to how he played with the U17 team. I never regarded him as a potential top 5 pick in 2021, like some are doing. I don't know the 2021 draft well, but I know the level of talent that goes top 5 in most drafts, and I don't think Beniers has that talent. He has a chance to be a first round pick, but I never subscribed to the big hype towards Beniers. I definitely see the point about Beniers, but I don't think point totals effect draft rankings that much. I think what will get those players moved up in the rankings is improving their NHL projection.

I get it but there is an example of playing with older players and how it can inflate draft projections. Put Perfetti on an all 16 year old team vs 20 year olds and he takes a huge step back in production and in the eyes of many his draft stock would decline. Its perception. The best canadian 16 year olds are role players on older teams and thats compared to US players who are on a young team facing 20 year olds. Much easier for international players to jump up draft rankings that U17 year as the NTDP are in a tougher spot. Goes for defenseman and goalies as well. Much tougher defending on a team full of 16 year olds vs a team full of 20 year old veteran players. The early rankings not showing an American going in the top 25 is part of this. A lot will change over the next 12 months thats for sure.

 

[OldScool]

So this is an interesting conversation. I was speaking to a few people about a few '03 prospects recently. Both great players. One is definitely producing more right now. However both agreed that the other has more untapped potential and definitely plays a more NHL ready game. Who goes higher in the draft? The one who is probably "better" now or the one that projects better?

Its kind of like the Hughes/Kakko debate. Kakko probably has more NHL ready size/game right now but Hughes projects higher.

 

[JLT]

Here are Stranges's highlights from the 2018-19 season with London...

 

[Daneurism]

Perfetti is a real bad example to make your point. Not only has he put up huge stats every year of his minor hockey, but he's also done it against older players every year. Guy's IQ is off the charts. He'd produce against 20 year olds on an all 16 year old team, I've got no doubt.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Perfetti is a real bad example to make your point. Not only has he put up huge stats every year of his minor hockey, but he's also done it against older players every year. Guy's IQ is off the charts. He'd produce against 20 year olds on an all 16 year old team, I've got no doubt.

I don’t think the point he’s making is that he wouldn’t produce good stats elsewhere. I think he’s saying that playing for a very good offensive team could see stats elevated and therefore draft slot elevated.

 

[William H Bonney]

I think both sides on this conversation are pretty spot-on and just taking different angles to similar conclusions. There seems to be two consensuses at play when it comes to the 2020 draft for USAH:

• Draft rankings (i.e. TPEHockey's) and/or mock drafts thus far are almost assuredly too pessimistic on American players.
• The draft likely doesn't have many American hopefuls, regardless of 2019-2020 development, that are going to get themselves in contention for the top 10-15 picks.

That's not to say both of those consensuses will remain throughout next season because as has been pointed out, things can change drastically when you're talking about the development between the U17 and U18 seasons, but it also could change for the better or worse.

On the first consensus, I think the rankings/mock drafts are too pessimistic but the increased numbers I'd expect here are more likely to fall in the 20-30 range, unless the depth of the draft isn't great come this time next year or some guys really come on. And I think we're hoping we may get 4-5 first rounders, so nothing earth shattering. But guys like Smilanic, Bordeleau, Tuch, Slaggert, Sanderson, Powell, etc. all have the makeup and potential to be guys that go in the latter half of the first without huge development curves next year. One thing that hurts USAH too is that the none of the late '01 birthdays (Rolston, Svejkovsky, Farrell, Miller, Reid, etc.) appear to be guys with first-round potential, which is usually something that helps contribute to the depth of each draft class for each nation.

On the second consensus, I'd say Stranges is the only guy realistically in that arena right now and his position is tenuous at best. Does he get enough ice time with London to prove himself as a high draft pick? Or does the increased ice time prove otherwise and he loses the "well, if wasn't on the 4th line..." argument? Prime ice time will be critical for him, especially since he looks to not be at the Hlinka over the summer as he was at the Michigan Select 17 Camp but not among the final selections for the USAH Select 17 Player Development Camp, where USAH chooses the Hlinka roster. It's certainly possible he ended up not participating in the Michigan camp, but if he did, it's pretty clear that USAH is still holding a grudge after his shenanigans with the NTDP. Stranges and his family certainly deserve a lot of admonishment for their handling of the situation, but USAH can't boycot top prospects -- if we had Canada's depth, sure, but for us, it's too short-sighted and doesn't really serve a purpose other than to protect the NTDP. Our '02 Hlinka team is probably going to get wrecked - with or without Stranges - but it's a huge missed opportunity for him to play a top role on a big scouting stage. Outside of Stranges, a guy like Kleven once seemed promising as a high-end guy but without some significant progress offensively, he shouldn't touch the first round as he looks more like a prospect in the Joel Edmunson mold -- valuable no doubt but someone that's likely to go in the second round.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think Sanderson could find his way into the 10-15 range without a huge development in his game. He missed a lot of the second half of the season, but there were some experts who liked his game, and he did well when he played. He might not have the high-end potential to go 10-15 range, but I wouldn't be surprised if he moves his way up some draft boards because he does almost everything at an average or better level. Cam York might go in the 10-15 range this year, and I'm not sure he's a better prospect than Sanderson, although its not the same draft and comparing the two as of now might not be a good comparison.

 

[OldScool]

I think Sanderson could find his way into the 10-15 range without a huge development in his game. He missed a lot of the second half of the season, but there were some experts who liked his game, and he did well when he played. He might not have the high-end potential to go 10-15 range, but I wouldn't be surprised if he moves his way up some draft boards because he does almost everything at an average or better level. Cam York might go in the 10-15 range this year, and I'm not sure he's a better prospect than Sanderson, although its not the same draft and comparing the two as of now might not be a good comparison.

I think several players at the NTDP could break into mid-late 1st with good seasons....Smilanic, Bordeleau, Sanderson, Kleven, Commesso all could be in that conversation. Dont write off Peterson/Tuch either as power forward type players can prosper in their U18 seasons after that tough U17 season. Slaggert is also a player to watch...works hard and creates.

My point is the year prior to their draft year the U17 NTDP crop plays in a more difficult situation than Canadian/International players. A team of all 16 year olds vs 20 year olds is a MASSIVE difference when scouting vs a 16 year old playing with 20 year olds. Therefore, the USA players arent a hyped as their international counterparts and therefore ranked lower. Its not apple to apples.