AM34 Contract

[Belzebob]

but you are correct Matthews will never be as good as Lindros.

that is not the type of comparison I was making

 

[RedHot]

If you are getting paid close to 12m you had better be flirting with 95 points for the duration of that contract. Injuries be damned.

 

[Walter Sobchak]

I was referring to his injury history.

he did not play many full seasons and his last 3 were only about half a season.

another large player that was very injury prone

It's just not a good comparison.

The NHL circa 1992 vs the NHL now is a different game. When Lindros entered the league he had a target on his back, the league was at it's peak of rock em sock em hockey and physicality was, in my opinion, at an all time high. Lindros thrived when the game was at it's physical peak and he did not back down from ANYONE! But in the end, this was his downfall, and concussions ended his career.

Auston Matthews is big, in comparison to current NHL stars, but Lindros was a tank. He looked like an NFL player.

Matthews isn't overly physical, at all, which is OK because the current NHL is geared towards skill. His injury history is more luck than anything and I personally don't worry about it moving forward.

You can't compare a couple shoulder injuries from awkward hits to head injuries resulting from playing hockey like a runaway fright train.

 

[Belzebob]

It's just not a good comparison.

The NHL circa 1992 vs the NHL now is a different game. When Lindros entered the league he had a target on his back, the league was at it's peak of rock em sock em hockey and physicality was, in my opinion, at an all time high. Lindros thrived when the game was at it's physical peak and he did not back down from ANYONE! But in the end, this was his downfall, and concussions ended his career.

Auston Matthews is big, in comparison to current NHL stars, but Lindros was a tank. He looked like an NFL player.

Matthews isn't overly physical, at all, which is OK because the current NHL is geared towards skill. His injury history is more luck than anything and I personally don't worry about it moving forward.

You can't compare a couple shoulder injuries from awkward hits to head injuries resulting from playing hockey like a runaway fright train.

the comparison I was making was that whatever the injury, if a player cannot stay on the ice, he is not helping the team.

Lindros got his bell rung one too many times.

Matthews at 21 has had 2 shoulder injuries and a back injury.

when you get a joint or back injury it is a lot easier to injure that area again.

he is not durable enough to warrant anywhere near the salary he will be paid

 

[authentic]

He's the 2nd highest paid player in the league on a deal that is 80% RFA years. If you assume his UFA year is worth $17M (meaning that if he were to become a UFA in 4 years he could ask and receive a contract for $17M AAV, which seems about right given inflation), Matthews is getting paid $10.4M per year for his RFA years. If you generously assume McDavid's UFA years are worth the same as Matthews ($17M) , that would imply McDavid's RFA years are worth only $8M.

Under that assumption, Matthews' RFA years are being paid at a 30% premium over Connor ****ing McDavid

So realistically, he would need to be better than McDavid by a nontrivial margin. I would say Matthews needs to start putting up at least 55-65g 110-130p seasons while playing a solid 2 way game for this contract to not be a massive over-payment. So that would probably mean 2-3+ Hart trophies, 3-4 Richard trophies, 2-3 Art Ross trophies, and 3-4 Lindsay trophies in the 5 years of his deal. He'd have to be the undisputed best player in the world from 2020-2025.

Which is not going to happen.

HF never ceases to surprise me with their opinions on Matthews.

 

[Stamkos4life]

HF never ceases to surprise me with their opinions on Matthews.

Is he wrong though?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

HF never ceases to surprise me with their opinions on Matthews.

You are surprised to learn that Matthews is getting paid more for his RFA years than McDavid?

 

[authentic]

You are surprised to learn that Matthews is getting paid more for his RFA years than McDavid?

I'm surprised how many agree with the expectations. Their contracts were not given out in the same seasons and even a 55 goal 115 point season would be better than anything McDavid has shown so far. I think Matthews is overpaid, but if he stays healthy and gets around 50-100 consistently with very good playoff performances that should do it (literally no one in the NHL gets 50 goals AND 100 points).

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'm surprised how many agree with the expectations. Their contracts were not given out in the same seasons and even a 55 goal 115 point season would be better than anything McDavid has shown so far. I think Matthews is overpaid, but if he stays healthy and gets around 50-100 consistently with very good playoff performances that should do it (literally no one in the NHL gets 50 goals AND 100 points).

They were given out one season apart. Hardly enough to justify the premium Matthews got. Even if Matthews scored 50-100 he'd still be way overpaid compared to McDavid potting 40g 120p.

 

[Divine]

The term being low is the issue, because with such a short term being 11.5, a 8-year term contract would be ~13mil

Without ever hitting 70 points in a season, Matthews shouldn't have the ability to ask for such a contract considering that he doesn't have any negotiation high ground. That's how RFA works, and that's why RFA years can be bought for cheaper.

Go check his stats.

 

[Divine]

They were given out one season apart. Hardly enough to justify the premium Matthews got. Even if Matthews scored 50-100 he'd still be way overpaid compared to McDavid potting 40g 120p.

McDavid signed his contract July 7, 2017.
Matthews signed his contract February 5th, 2019.

I don't know how long you think one season is... but it's not 17 months. In the meantime, a 500M expansion team entered the league, went to the Cup Final, and significantly increased the cap. A second expansion team was also announced before Matthews signed the contract. Matthews cap hit % is lower than McDavid's.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

They were given out one season apart. Hardly enough to justify the premium Matthews got. Even if Matthews scored 50-100 he'd still be way overpaid compared to McDavid potting 40g 120p.

To be fair, there will have been two cap raises from when Mcdavid signed and Matthews' contract starts.

From 75M to 83M.

12.5/75M = 16.7%
11.64/83M = 14%

The equivalent if they signed at the same time would have been 10.5M for Matty.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

To be fair, there will have been two cap raises from when Mcdavid signed and Matthews' contract starts.

From 75M to 83M.

12.5/75M = 16.7%
11.64/83M = 14%

The equivalent if they signed at the same time would have been 10.5M for Matty.

First of all, the contracts go into effect 1 season apart, not 2. So adding in 2 years of cap inflation is inaccurate and disingenuous.

I also noticed that you have completely ignored the fact that McDavid's deal includes 4 UFA years vs Matthews 1?

McDavid signed his contract July 7, 2017.
Matthews signed his contract February 5th, 2019.

I don't know how long you think one season is... but it's not 17 months. In the meantime, a 500M expansion team entered the league, went to the Cup Final, and significantly increased the cap. A second expansion team was also announced before Matthews signed the contract. Matthews cap hit % is lower than McDavid's.

17 months is closer to 1 season than it is to 2, and the deals go into effect 1 season apart. But good job focusing on the semantics.

I would hope to God Matthews cap hit was lower than McDavid's, considering how he only signed a 5 year deal and is the inferior player.

 

[Sky04]

McDavid signed his contract July 7, 2017.
Matthews signed his contract February 5th, 2019.

I don't know how long you think one season is... but it's not 17 months. In the meantime, a 500M expansion team entered the league, went to the Cup Final, and significantly increased the cap. A second expansion team was also announced before Matthews signed the contract. Matthews cap hit % is lower than McDavid's.[/QUOTE]

Not as much as the annual 40 point differential between them. The difference between McDavid (12.5m) and Matthews (11.634m) is an extra 40 point player on his ELC

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Go check his stats.

Reading comprehension seems to lacking here. The poster posted he signed his contract without having 70 pts in a season. This was factually correct. Not that 70 pts players are worth 11.634M x 5 years out of their entry level deals.

 

[Divine]

Reading comprehension seems to lacking here. The poster posted he signed his contract without having 70 pts in a season. This was factually correct. Not that 70 pts players are worth 11.634M x 5 years out of their entry level deals.

Maybe the Leafs should have waited for him to hit 70 points to make ijuka happy?

 

[McFlyingV]

Well, you've obviously not been watching him play. Seeing him twice a year doesn't do it justice. He hasn't been the same after the injury, at times he looks like he's been avoiding contact possibly due to being afraid to injure his shoulder again.

I think Matthews should step his game up in the playoffs, and surely by next season when he feels comfortable in taking hits and his shoulder not getting injured. There's always that mental barrier that needs to be overcome when returning from an injury.

When Matthews put up 16 points in the first 7 games of the season, he was dominating. Anyway, his contract begins next year, so let's at least wait until then to see if 'he lives up to it'. Right now, on his ELC, he's one of the biggest bargains in the league.

It's becoming clear though that Matthews hot starts to seasons are not a reflection of his actual capability because he always tails off after it. He's started the past 3 seasons at:
10P in 6GP - 16/17
12P in 8 GP - 17/18
16P in 7 GP - 18/19

In all of these seasons his ppg has dropped off significantly after the hot start. So while it's cool that he starts seasons hot when team defensive structure and goaltenders are still rounding into shape, its quite obvious this is not a good representation of his actual ability.

 

[Divine]

It's becoming clear though that Matthews hot starts to seasons are not a reflection of his actual capability because he always tails off after it. He's started the past 3 seasons at:
10P in 6GP - 16/17
12P in 8 GP - 17/18
16P in 7 GP - 18/19

In all of these seasons his ppg has dropped off significantly after the hot start. So while it's cool that he starts seasons hot when team defensive structure and goaltenders are still rounding into shape, its quite obvious this is not a good representation of his actual ability.

How can you argue a hot start is 'not a reflection of his actual capability' when it consistently happens? Just as you're hypothesizing to undermine Matthews abilities, someone else could make the argument that when rested, Matthews is the best player in the league and after continued stamina and physical maturity he would be able to sustain the 'hot streak' for longer.

By the way, Matthews always lights it up when coming back from injury also. He put up 10 points in 5 games after returning from injury, or 11 in 6, or 7 in 3. However you want to take it.

If it's easy to pick up points in the beginning of the season, why doesn't every player do it?

 

[McFlyingV]

How can you argue a hot start is 'not a reflection of his actual capability' when it consistently happens? Just as you're hypothesizing to undermine Matthews abilities. Someone else could make the argument that when rested, Matthews is the best player in the league. Therefore, continued stamina and physical development should help him to sustain the 'hot streak' for longer.

Because if you can't maintain it over an actual reasonable sample size then it means very little. Especially when you consider how poor goaltenders and team defensive structures usually look at the start of the year.

You can't be serious with that stamina comment can you? He's an elite athlete, he's already at an elite level in terms of stamina and physical development. The diminishing returns in elite athlete training is a real thing to the point where any gains he makes going forward will be moderate at best. If anything it shows that he couldn't handle the increased minutes that Leafs fans are always crying for to justify his lack of production. If he's tailing off playing 18 minutes a night, then he sure as hell won't be able to handle 22 minutes.

 

[Divine]

Because if you can't maintain it over an actual reasonable sample size then it means very little. Especially when you consider how poor goaltenders and team defensive structures usually look at the start of the year.

You can't be serious with that stamina comment can you? He's an elite athlete, he's already at an elite level in terms of stamina and physical development. The diminish returns in elite athlete training is a real thing. If anything it shows that he couldn't handle the increased minutes that Leafs fans are always crying for to justify his lack of production. If he's tailing off playing 18 minutes a night, then he sure as hell won't be able to handle 22 minutes.

I said my comment is just as outrageous as yours. It doesn't hold any more merit than yours. He put up 10 points in 5 games returning from injury.

Anyway, when the sample size is 60+ games, you can't just take away his best stretch. It's included in the sample, just as his worst is. He's been steadily improving every year, with a better PPG per season. The notion that he's hit his peak is ridiculous.

Also, do you think points at the beginning of the season are worth less than those at the end? If a player helps you win 10 games in the first 10 games of the season, they're just as valuable as the last 10. Maybe other players should take note and score more points when it's easy instead of waiting for it to get more difficult.

 

[McFlyingV]

I said my comment is just as outrageous as yours. It doesn't hold any more merit than yours. He put up 10 points in 5 games returning from injury.

Anyway, when the sample size is 60+ games, you can't just take away his best stretch. It's included in the sample, just as his worst is.

That's the thing though, I wasn't removing his best stretch. I said his best stretch is not reflective of his ability because he has never been able to maintain it. His season stats are reflective of his ability, which to this point has him in the top 20 for ppg. Unless he's a top 5 point producer next season then his contract is a considerable overpay when you consider that it bought only 1 UFA year.

 

[Divine]

That's the thing though, I wasn't removing his best stretch. I said his best stretch is not reflective of his ability because he has never been able to maintain it. His season stats are reflective of his ability, which to this point has him in the top 20 for ppg. Unless he's a top 5 point producer next season then his contract is a considerable overpay when you consider that it bought only 1 UFA year.

We won't know that until next season, though. Besides, Matthews has been unfortunate with injury. He hasn't played over 70 games since his rookie season (and won't again this year). Also, coming back from an injury puts you behind the eight ball to some degree because you need to get back into the pace of the game, especially in Matthews situation when he's missing more than a month. Hopefully he'll play 80+ games next season and we can judge him when that contract actually takes effect.

 

[McFlyingV]

We won't know that until next season, though. Besides, Matthews has been unfortunate with injury. He hasn't played over 70 games since his rookie season (and won't again this year). Also, coming back from an injury puts you behind the 8-ball to some degree because you need to get back into the pace of the game, especially in Matthews situation when he's missing more than a month. Hopefully he'll play 80+ games next season and we can judge him when that contract actually takes effect.

Hard to say what he is aside from an ~ppg player at this point. The injury situation goes both ways. Yeah it sucks missing time, but it also skews his point totals more heavily with his hot starts because he plays fewer games, and he goes through less of the accumulated fatigue and wear and tear that players face through a full season grind. There's plenty of examples of players who don't miss a beat when returning from month+ long injuries, so I really don't think it's a valid excuse.

I agree though we will have to wait and see, and I have reserved my judgement on the contract until it actually starts. However, given the information we currently have it does not look like Dubas did a very good job on this contract.

 

[VainGretzky]

It's an overpayment right now everyone is having their kicks dogging on him for the time being , but he will be a top 5 producer soon enough if he stays healthy , but with back issues so early in his career is worrisome . On the Other hand even before Marner was drafted I said he would be a better producer than Eichel so far I called that one right

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

You never regret signing high end players like Matthews, even if they're overpaid. Marner deserves a similar amount of money, whether he gets it or not, and again you won't regret it either.

However, if Matthews only has 80 points next year, it ain't enough to justify his dollars as being the second (?) highest paid player. He also needs to perform infinitely better than he did last year. He's really got no excuse this time.

Improved playoff performance isn't enough to justify, neither is the 80 points. He needs to better this year and be getting close to that 100 mark.