AM34 Contract

[Walter Sobchak]

What does Matthews have to do, in the eyes of HFB, to earn his AAV of 11.634?

* no trolling here, I am genuinely curious as to what people think. Matthews has already proven himself to be an elite goal scorer in the league at age 21 but there are some genuine red flags with his injury history and his performance last year in the playoffs.

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[bobholly39]

Option B

Not an exact science really but AM alone cant make them win 2 rounds so option 1 doesnt make sense

 

[elmaco]

Option C, you're the 2nd most paid player in the league so you better perform in the playoffs.

 

[Walter Sobchak]

Option B

Not an exact science really but AM alone cant make them win 2 rounds so option 1 doesnt make sense

Marner was very good in the Bruins series last year. My thinking is, if Matthews plays well against the Bruins, the Leafs win that series last year. I believe the same holds true for this year.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Leafs shouldn’t overpay for wingers when they are deep on the wing.

 

[SotasicA]

A and B, and may not be enough. He is paid as if he already brought home the Cup.

This core is expected to end the drought. Anything less is a failure. May not happen next year, but the window is not necessarily huge due to the salary cap.

 

[GoldiFox]

Matthews is a top-5 C in the NHL. It is evident if you watch him play. He's already earned that contract. Success will determine whether Leafs fans are happy or not and that doesn't hinge on one player.

If Matthews has a great Playoffs but the Leafs get ousted in the first couple rounds, Leafs fans will be mad. If Matthews has a bad Playoffs and the Leafs get ousted in the first couple rounds, Leafs fans will be madder.
If Matthews has a great Playoffs and the Leafs go to the ECF/SCF, Leafs fans will be very happy. If Matthews has a bad Playoffs and the Leafs go to the ECF/SCF, Leafs fans will still be happy.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

I wouldn't wanna pay that much for one player.

 

[The Red Line]

I don't like the contract, but it is what it is. What were they gonna do, let him walk? All he has to do is keep performing at a high level to make the contract worth it. People will always find a reason to nitpick "You don't pay a guy X dollars for Y production even if he might have XY potential!".

But as long as he plays hard and performs well then the contract is worth it to the Leafs organization. There is no quantifiable metric to prove a player is worth EXACTLY a certain dollar amount. Its all about age, team situation, when the contract was signed, etc. These contracts aren't signed in a vacuum.

 

[The Macho King]

When you're the second-highest paid player in the league with what is probably *the* best contract in the league (from the player's perspective)...

I mean, you better play like you're the second best player in the league.

 

[Pia8988]

Leafs shouldn’t overpay for wingers when they are deep on the wing.

How about when that winger is the best forward on the team?

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

How about when that winger is the best forward on the team?

That would be a good question if he was the best on the team

 

[The Moose is Loose]

He needs to be neck and neck with McDavid the next 5 years to earn that contract. McDavid doesn't even make a million more and he is signed for 3 more years.

I'm talking winning multiple major trophies to be worth it.

 

[Iceman]

Next year? Probably the year after that as well then sure, why not... but to be honest, even if the contract might be a bit excessive, I highly doubt they will regret it, assuming that there will be no noteworthy cap casualties.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He's the 2nd highest paid player in the league on a deal that is 80% RFA years. If you assume his UFA year is worth $17M (meaning that if he were to become a UFA in 4 years he could ask and receive a contract for $17M AAV, which seems about right given inflation), Matthews is getting paid $10.4M per year for his RFA years. If you generously assume McDavid's UFA years are worth the same as Matthews ($17M) , that would imply McDavid's RFA years are worth only $8M.

Under that assumption, Matthews' RFA years are being paid at a 30% premium over Connor ****ing McDavid

So realistically, he would need to be better than McDavid by a nontrivial margin. I would say Matthews needs to start putting up at least 55-65g 110-130p seasons while playing a solid 2 way game for this contract to not be a massive over-payment. So that would probably mean 2-3+ Hart trophies, 3-4 Richard trophies, 2-3 Art Ross trophies, and 3-4 Lindsay trophies in the 5 years of his deal. He'd have to be the undisputed best player in the world from 2020-2025.

Which is not going to happen.

 

[The Nuge]

Voted option B because it’s closest to what I think. He’s gotta hit 100 points, or at least have a 1.25 PPG, imo. The 1.07 PPG he’s had over the last 2 years just isn’t good enough when he’s arguably the highest paid player in the league.

 

[Snippit]

95 points

 

[Volica]

That dude's gotta get the playoff monkey off his back.

The guy's been a dud in the playoffs; he has to prove he can do damage out there; and be one of the main reasons the Leafs move a round or two.

Then he's got to be one of the best 5 players on the planet next year; he's paid as the second best player on the planet; he's clearly not. He has to play 75-80 games next season and score near that 100 point mark; and legit be a 1C. Not just a dude who scores a bunch of goals, but a guy who makes playing him nightly a chore. You watch him out there and you forget he's on the ice 80% of the game until he rips a shot into the back of the net. Like, you know when McDavid's on the ice, because the Dmen are shitting themselves. You know when Patrick Kane's on the ice, you know when Sidney's on the ice... Matthews doesn't do that yet; it's yet to be seen if he has that gear, but you f***ing hope so if he's being paid that handsomely.

 

[biotk]

The only way Matthews earns his contract is if the coach gives him the same opportunities every other star player gets, which will never happen under Babcock.

 

[Kamiccolo]

These options are terrible IMO. You can only pick one but there are multiple things. He needs to be an impact player all the time. I the regular season, we need him to be a 90 point player at minimum with his all around game he was so known for. In the playoffs, he needs to be near PPG and bring intensity and force coaches to game plan for him.

For the past few months, none of these things have been done. Matthews is coasting and if this continues, the Bruins will just try to shutdown JT and Marner while Matthews is a ghost again.

Terrible f***ing contract. He needs a major attitude adjustment.

 

[biotk]

That dude's gotta get the playoff monkey off his back.

The guy's been a dud in the playoffs

4 goals in the first round of 2017. Only Guentzel scored more (5). All 4 were at 5v5.

 

[DomBarr]

He is worth exactly what the Leafs are willing to pay him so he already is worth the contract to them and they are really the only thing that counts...personally that contract is ugly and shortsighted but I don't have to pay it.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

$11.5M (second highest paid player in the league), while only eating up your RFA years and not on a long-term deal?

Conference Finals, point per game in the playoffs, 40-50 goals during the regular season.

 

[Volica]

4 goals in the first round of 2017. Only Guentzel scored more (5). All 4 were at 5v5.

1 goal in the next series. 2 points, was invisible and dominated by the Bruins over 7 games.

 

[biotk]

1 goal in the next series. 2 points, was invisible and dominated by the Bruins over 7 games.

How does an invisible player lead the playoffs in shots in goal in the first round? He had bad luck over a 7 game stretch happens to every player. His PDO was 0.925. If his PDO is high over a stretch then that is the only thing that matters to people like you. If you PDO is low it is because he sucks.