6-8 weeks from full quarantine to flatten the contamination curve and then another 6-8 weeks to clean out the population. Yes this is not going to be "over" best case until July 4th. That's why the while global economy is going on lockdown. It's not the media or stupid politicians, it's the alternative of a "corona winter" in 2020-2021. Think about this. Northern Italy has some of the best health care in Europe. Sorry but one average better than the US or APJ. They are crashing in less than 3 weeks from cases at circa 200 end Feb to today with 30000 of which 22K in northern Italy. 3-4K deaths a week -that's nearly twice as bad as the worst week during the Vietnam War for the US - and this is only Italy we're talking about.... about 20% of the US population.
@1,800 new cases and 23 deaths today, that curve will need more than just fattening.
Based on the prior track record on this virus, you only start to flatten the curve from the time there is a lockdown and you restrict contact. Aka China, Italy, France, Spain. The US actions in SF, NYC, LA and other locales will help but not with 30k muppets in the street drinking beer on St Patricks day. The unfortunate thing in all this is it would be easier to lock down the whole global market / supply chain for 4 weeks and be done with this, as opposed to the rolling thunder approach which is more damaging both in terms of health and economy given how everything is intertwined these days.
No, it needs testing so the cases can be detected at the earliest possible, which wont require medical assistance which would help flatten the curve. Then it needs a lot more social distancing to help reduce the spreading.
