All-purpose goaltending thread III - all Hutch/Pav talk here [Mod warning in OP]

[Tom ServoMST3K]

One thing that will never get old to me here is watching most of you clamour over the 'other' goalie.

I've said it since the Jets came back... the way this team cannot clear the net, every single goalie, including Grant Fuhr with a pound of Columbia's finest in front of him, won't maintain any star-like numbers for long.

Do I think Pavelec is the answer? Nope. Do I think Hutch will fair any better? Nope.

Flip a coin, then complain the next morning. Rinse and repeat.

And you can throw any stat, or chart at me you want. I see this unwavering 'grass is greener' opinion going back to Chris Mason to Montoya and now Hutch.

The way we play when we have a lead is a entire pile of goalie stat killing playstyle.... it's horrid.

Chris Mason? I don't think people wanted to see more of Mason to see more of Mason. Even Montoya.

People wanted our backups to take more of the load so Pavlec didn't have to lead the league in Games played and shots. With Hutch, we saw the potential of this team with a half decent tender.

Also, the Jets Team defense has been above average by all available metrics this year.

 

[Channelcat]

I hope Hutch can start one of the B2Bs. Pavelec's performance over the last 3 games hasn't earned him the right to start both, IMO.

That would be fabulous! I think we are due for another season turning event. Can't imagine that Hutch could have been any worse over these past three games. I would play him against MN.

I'm guessing Pavs will close out the season though, unfortunately.

 

[Koonta]

Pavelec was supposedly sick and missed practice the day before the game and he looked to me like he was still sick in the game. Slow moving, unsure, couldn't find his net. I felt sick watching him. If he wasn't 100% Hutch should've started, it couldn't have been any worse because the posts would've still been there for Hutch.

I too would start Hutch in Minny and see what he has. He's had a few games off and at the beginning of the season he had some games off and came in and played really well.

Imagine if we had a goalie like Cory Schneider, we would be fighting for the division lead right now.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

One thing that will never get old to me here is watching most of you clamour over the 'other' goalie.

I've said it since the Jets came back... the way this team cannot clear the net, every single goalie, including Grant Fuhr with a pound of Columbia's finest in front of him, won't maintain any star-like numbers for long.

Do I think Pavelec is the answer? Nope. Do I think Hutch will fair any better? Nope.

Flip a coin, then complain the next morning. Rinse and repeat.

And you can throw any stat, or chart at me you want. I see this unwavering 'grass is greener' opinion going back to Chris Mason to Montoya and now Hutch.

The way we play when we have a lead is a entire pile of goalie stat killing playstyle.... it's horrid.

So either you think:

1. We don't have a goaltender problem.
In which case you're wrong.

or

2. We do have a goaltender problem.
In which case your post is pretty much pointless, other than a feeble attempt at ridiculing others' opinions.

 

[pucka lucka]

Pavelec was supposedly sick and missed practice the day before the game and he looked to me like he was still sick in the game. Slow moving, unsure, couldn't find his net. I felt sick watching him. If he wasn't 100% Hutch should've started, it couldn't have been any worse because the posts would've still been there for Hutch.

I too would start Hutch in Minny and see what he has. He's had a few games off and at the beginning of the season he had some games off and came in and played really well.

Imagine if we had a goalie like Cory Schneider, we would be fighting for the division lead right now.

THis is fascinating to me. We have a career terrible goalie, yet the coaches think it's best to start him sick, even after his previous 2 performances. We aren't talking about Hasek slightly under the weather. Hutch was better for longer this year. It baffles me how incompetent the NHL is managing and evaluating goalies.

Fucale is garbage, but is appointed to the WJ club without a try out. Dubnyk almost gets run out of the league after 1 poor season. Pavelec gets nominated for the Masterton for overcoming his ****** talent level for 6 games. It's ****ing bizarre.

 

[SensibleGuy]

One thing that will never get old to me here is watching most of you clamour over the 'other' goalie.

I've said it since the Jets came back... the way this team cannot clear the net, every single goalie, including Grant Fuhr with a pound of Columbia's finest in front of him, won't maintain any star-like numbers for long.

Do I think Pavelec is the answer? Nope. Do I think Hutch will fair any better? Nope.

Flip a coin, then complain the next morning. Rinse and repeat.

And you can throw any stat, or chart at me you want. I see this unwavering 'grass is greener' opinion going back to Chris Mason to Montoya and now Hutch.

The way we play when we have a lead is a entire pile of goalie stat killing playstyle.... it's horrid.

The Jets are far from the worst at "clearing the front of the net" during their time back in Winnipeg. Pav is NOT far from the worst goalie during that time though. In fact, he may be the statistically worst starter over the past 3 seasons prior to this one. As far as not being able to hold leads - we've had something like a dozen games this year where we gave up a goal with less than 5 minutes remaining when we were up by one or tied. Of those occasions, Pav was in net for a huge majority - like 10 or something.

 

[White Out 403*]

One thing that will never get old to me here is watching most of you clamour over the 'other' goalie.

I've said it since the Jets came back... the way this team cannot clear the net, every single goalie, including Grant Fuhr with a pound of Columbia's finest in front of him, won't maintain any star-like numbers for long.

Do I think Pavelec is the answer? Nope. Do I think Hutch will fair any better? Nope.

Flip a coin, then complain the next morning. Rinse and repeat.

And you can throw any stat, or chart at me you want. I see this unwavering 'grass is greener' opinion going back to Chris Mason to Montoya and now Hutch.

The way we play when we have a lead is a entire pile of goalie stat killing playstyle.... it's horrid.

I enjoy it when someone is willing to admit they don't care if they're wrong. "show me any data you want... I DONT CARE"

That's devotion to Pavelec if I've ever read it here. Bravo sir, but the point is you're still wrong. By the way, no one wanted Mason as our #1. That is a laughable assertion

By the way I realize you wrote that pavelec isn't the answer ... if that's the case why are you opposed, then, to Hutch getting even starts?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed on the coin toss. We desperately need a trick coin that has "hot streak" on both sides. Then I don't care who plays.

I used to have a coin like that. It was my lucky coin but I lost it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I hope Hutch can start one of the B2Bs. Pavelec's performance over the last 3 games hasn't earned him the right to start both, IMO.

No matter how he had played these last 3 there is no valid argument for starting him in both ends of a b2b. Well, maybe with the exception of Bob Essenza being the only available option, or in our case Wade Flaherty.

 

[Andy6]

As far as not being able to hold leads - we've had something like a dozen games this year where we gave up a goal with less than 5 minutes remaining when we were up by one or tied. Of those occasions, Pav was in net for a huge majority - like 10 or something.

But that just begs the question of who is responsible for that, even supposing a small sample size like that is anything more than just random. Here's an alternative explanation -- Again and again, the entire team comes out flying in the first period. Is it possible that over-exertion by the team, and too much focus on physical play, tends to lead to undesirable results late in the third that have little to nothing to do with goaltending and a lot to do with the skaters running out of gas?

 

[Jets4Life]

That's devotion to Pavelec if I've ever read it here. Bravo sir, but the point is you're still wrong. By the way, no one wanted Mason as our #1. That is a laughable assertion

By the way I realize you wrote that pavelec isn't the answer ... if that's the case why are you opposed, then, to Hutch getting even starts?

You pretty much nailed it.

I was doing some research today, and found an interesting stat. Here is the record for both goaltenders, when faced with playoff seeded teams this year:

Hutch: 10-5-4
Pavelec: 8-14-4

In other words, Hutch gives us a 52.6% chance of winning against playoff teams
Pavelec gives us a 30.8% chance of winning against playoff teams. It's not even close.

3 of our next 4 games are against playoff seeded teams. The fact that Pavelec has blown late leads against Chicago and New York, while coming within a goalpost of blowing a 2 goal lead with two minutes left in the game scares the hell out of me. It's vintage Pavelec.

We need to play the goalie who gives us the best chance at winning, and that is Hutchinson.

 

[KingBogo]

You pretty much nailed it.

I was doing some research today, and found an interesting stat. Here is the record for both goaltenders, when faced with playoff seeded teams this year:

Hutch: 10-5-4
Pavelec: 8-14-4

In other words, Hutch gives us a 52.6% chance of winning against playoff teams
Pavelec gives us a 30.8% chance of winning against playoff teams. It's not even close.

3 of our next 4 games are against playoff seeded teams. The fact that Pavelec has blown late leads against Chicago and New York, while coming within a goalpost of blowing a 2 goal lead with two minutes left in the game scares the hell out of me. It's vintage Pavelec.

We need to play the goalie who gives us the best chance at winning, and that is Hutchinson.

Sorry but you can't extrapolate That Hutch gives us a 52.6% chance of winning and Pavs gives us a 30.8% chance of winning. Way too many unknown variables in play and far down the list is past records against teams currently in a playoff position.

 

[Jets4Life]

Sorry but you can't extrapolate That Hutch gives us a 52.6% chance of winning and Pavs gives us a 30.8% chance of winning. Way too many unknown variables in play and far down the list is past records against teams currently in a playoff position.

Why not? This stat certainly suggests that Hutchinson elevates his level of play with the tougher competition.

Ps...What kind of unknown variables?

 

[jetkarma*]

Why not? This stat certainly suggests that Hutchinson elevates his level of play with the tougher competition.

Ps...What kind of unknown variables?

Who the teams were , what kind of trend they were on , up? down? was it a team at home? on the road? back to back or rested? were they healthy or not , were we? All kinds.

Hutch was given more than a fair chance , he responded as he did . Love for him to step in and step up and win his next start , maybe tomorrow.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

I think the Jets showed 4 things this year:

A: They do a good job of getting pucks to the net

B: They do a good job of limiting shots

C: They do an okay Job of putting pucks in the back of the net.

D: They do a terrible job of preventing pucks from going to the back of the net.

So I am going to see if my gut feelings are right with stats:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&sort=SF&sortdir=DESC

A: They do not do a good job of getting pucks on net (Rank 22)

B: They are ELITE at preventing shots (Rank 3)

Combining Hypothisis' B&A Jets are Rank 9 in Corsi

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20142015&sort=standingsGoalsFor&type=LEA

C: They are okay at Keeping putting pucks in the net (Rank 16)

D: They are okay at Keeping pucks out of the net (Rank 15)

Combining C&D the Jets rank 13th in Goal Differential.

Can we stop blaming our Defense for the Goalie's play? The Jets are the Best in the Western Conference at preventing shots, but apparently they suck and leave our goalies out to dry all the time.

Examining my Hypothesis, The reason I thought they were bad at keeping goals out is because they give up so few shots compared to the rest of the league. As for shots on net, I guess they outshoot teams so often I assumed they had more. I also didn't realize how good our Defense is.

 

[KingBogo]

Why not? This stat certainly suggests that Hutchinson elevates his level of play with the tougher competition.

Ps...What kind of unknown variables?

It would be akin to saying Hutch only has a 37.5% chance of winning any game after the all star break since he only has 6 wins in 16 starts since the break. It doesn't take into account a wide range of variables that could possibly impact the outcome.

 

[mcpw]

Tom,

it seems to me that you are comparing 5x5 Corsi in a) and b) with all situations goals in c) and d). Might want to fix that. 3rd in SA vs 15th in GA doesn't give the right picture. We are 9th in overall SA because we take too many penalties.

Edit: similarly, we're 6th in 5x5 GA, and 8th in 5x5 GA/60, because our goaltending is not awful this year.

 

[Jets4Life]

It would be akin to saying Hutch only has a 37.5% chance of winning any game after the all star break since he only has 6 wins in 16 starts since the break. It doesn't take into account a wide range of variables that could possibly impact the outcome.

You're cherry picking stats. While you're at it, you may as well only factor in Pavelec's recent 6 game hot streak. I'm trying to be as fair as possible, by factoring in a larger sample size (the entire 2014-15 season), as this is essentially Hutchinson's first year. I could make it look more lopsided, if I were to include Pavelec's stats since 2009.

At any rate, Hutch gives us the better chance of winning the next four games.

 

[KingBogo]

You're cherry picking stats. While you're at it, you may as well only factor in Pavelec's recent 6 game hot streak. I'm trying to be as fair as possible, by factoring in a larger sample size (the entire 2014-15 season), as this is essentially Hutchinson's first year. I could make it look more lopsided, if I were to include Pavelec's stats since 2009.

At any rate, Hutch gives us the better chance of winning the next four games.

Of course I was cherry picking stats. That was the point. If you only take one variable into account you can prove anything you like. While I haven't been overly impressed with Pavs over the last couple games, it has been a long while since Hutch has shown his early season form. I really wish we had a better option then Pavs or Hutch, but we don't. I truly look forward to the day when we have a dominant true #1 goalie. But for now I'd have to shade towards Pavs as a better option based on most recent play.

 

[mcpw]

So, here are the stats by situation. Everything needs to be normalized by TOI per situation!

5x5
Icetime - 30th (we are a special team special teams team)
Shots For per 60min - 17th; (Shots For - 23rd)
Goals For per 60min - 15th; (Goals For - 20th)
Shots Against per 60min - 7th; (Shots Against - 3rd)
Goals Against per 60min - 8th; (Goals Against - 6th)
Goal Differential - 9th

All situations
SF/60 - 17th (5x5: 17th)
GF/60 - 15th (5x5: 15th)
SA/60 - 10th (5x5: 7th)
GA/60 - 16th (5x5: 8th)

5x4 Power Play
TOI - 12th
SF/60 - 21st; (SF - 18th)
GF/60 - 7th; (GF - 8th)

4x5 Shorthanded
TOI - 1st (that's a bad thing)
SA/60 - 9th; (SA - 27th; too much TOI)
GA/60 - 11th; (GA - 26th; too much TOI)

Goaltending is the difference between SA/60 and GA/60.
5x5: our goaltending drops us from 7th place to 8th place.
4x5 SH: our goaltending drops us from 9th place to 11th place.
All situations: our goaltending drops us from 10th place to 16th place.
How does this compute?
We hang the goalie out to dry. Not all shots are created equal: every goalie's shorthanded SV% is worse than his 5x5 SV%.

Our 5x5 offense is roughly league average.
Our 5x5 defense is top10. This includes goaltending.
Our PP doesn't need a lot of shots to succeed, but then again we don't shoot a lot.
Our PK is close to top10. This includes goaltending.
We spend too much time on the PK. This is the sole reason why we haven't clinched a playoff spot yet.

 

[Andy6]

You're cherry picking stats. While you're at it, you may as well only factor in Pavelec's recent 6 game hot streak. I'm trying to be as fair as possible, by factoring in a larger sample size (the entire 2014-15 season), as this is essentially Hutchinson's first year. I could make it look more lopsided, if I were to include Pavelec's stats since 2009.

At any rate, Hutch gives us the better chance of winning the next four games.

Surely play that is recent is more significant than play 6 months ago, though -- particularly in the case of a raw rookie. A goalie (or baseball pitcher, etc.) doing well the first time around the league and then much less well thereafter (as teams take him more seriously and scout him better) is not an unheard of phenomenon.

 

[Jets4Life]

Surely play that is recent is more significant than play 6 months ago, though -- particularly in the case of a raw rookie. A goalie (or baseball pitcher, etc.) doing well the first time around the league and then much less well thereafter (as teams take him more seriously and scout him better) is not an unheard of phenomenon.

Well if you are correct, then we should just be content with Pavelec's post-streak play of 0.880% With Pavelec, we know exactly what we are getting into. He has one or two hot streaks in a season, usually at the start of the year, posting 0.930 for a sample of games, then fizzles out, and plays at sub 0.900% more often than not.

Hutch carried the Jets through December and January. He did not play too bad against Vancouver on the 24th. He has only played once in the last 4 weeks. May as well go with the tandem. What do we have to lose? With Pavelec, we have bad goaltending. If Hutch starts for 2 of 4 games, and plays sub 0.900% there is no difference.

 

[sipowicz]

Well if you are correct, then we should just be content with Pavelec's post-streak play of 0.880% With Pavelec, we know exactly what we are getting into. He has one or two hot streaks in a season, usually at the start of the year, posting 0.930 for a sample of games, then fizzles out, and plays at sub 0.900% more often than not.

Hutch carried the Jets through December and January. He did not play too bad against Vancouver on the 24th. He has only played once in the last 4 weeks. May as well go with the tandem. What do we have to lose? With Pavelec, we have bad goaltending. If Hutch starts for 2 of 4 games, and plays sub 0.900% there is no difference.

I'm no Pavs fanboy but the ship sailed on Hutch being a legit starter, he is not a goaltender to build on or will he be here long, Hutch simply holding a spot until Helly is ready and Chevy gets serious about the goaltending and trades for one or signs a reliable FA (like the Flames did). Hutch's play post All-Star break sealed his fate as not trustworthy or even as an adequate back-up.

 

[pucka lucka]

I'm no Pavs fanboy but the ship sailed on Hutch being a legit starter, he is not a goaltender to build on or will he be here long, Hutch simply holding a spot until Helly is ready and Chevy gets serious about the goaltending and trades for one or signs a reliable FA (like the Flames did). Hutch's play post All-Star break sealed his fate as not trustworthy or even as an adequate back-up.

HAH! He has better career numbers than Pavelec. Seriously I sometimes like to think you aren't a real person posting.

 

[Grind]

But that just begs the question of who is responsible for that, even supposing a small sample size like that is anything more than just random. Here's an alternative explanation -- Again and again, the entire team comes out flying in the first period. Is it possible that over-exertion by the team, and too much focus on physical play, tends to lead to undesirable results late in the third that have little to nothing to do with goaltending and a lot to do with the skaters running out of gas?

Well the sample size presented IS random. You can't ignore that. That is crucial information. 10 games of anything doesn't correlate/predict anything.

Thought experiment.


Check out these games. Load the charts for them. See who was controlling the play statistically over the third period. If its constantly the other team you MAY be onto something. If its not, you know the goalie s the issue.