All-purpose goaltending thread III - all Hutch/Pav talk here [Mod warning in OP]

[FinJetster]

This is how all goaltending goes though. Even the best are very streaky.

I disagree with the streaky part. As I mentioned earlier, people here tend to weight way too much on goalies, especially on the games lost. I think that goalies seem "streaky" mostly just because the opposing team changes all the time. Simply put, some teams are better some are worse, some are easier to defend against and some are harder etc.

How well a goalie does in a game has everything to do with a) how good our defence is b) and how well opponents offence plays against it. From goalies perspective, that simply means, how many good goal making opportunities our team gives to opponent. And that means basically, how much time and space we give them to shoot, and how well we block the shots.

If a goalie, himself, is "streaky" on this level. Meaning, his performance changes significantly within a bunch of games. He is a ****** goalie, and has no reason to play on the NHL.

 

[Sweech]

I don't get it. You say you don't understand the argument then endorse it.

The OP was simply re-iterating that Hutch is still in the unproven category.

How is that endorsing it?

I'm saying get rid of Pavelec and try out the "unproven" tenders when they're saying we can't let go of Pavelec until we have someone "proven".

I can't see where I wrote that I endorse keeping Pavelec.

I'm saying "unproven" or "proven" doesn't mean crap to me when you're comparing to Pavelec.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I disagree with the streaky part. As I mentioned earlier, people here tend to weight way too much on goalies, especially on the games lost. I think that goalies seem "streaky" mostly just because the opposing team changes all the time. Simply put, some teams are better some are worse, some are easier to defend against and some are harder etc.

How well a goalie does in a game has everything to do with a) how good our defence is b) and how well opponents offence plays against it. From goalies perspective, that simply means, how many good goal making opportunities our team gives to opponent. And that means basically, how much time and space we give them to shoot, and how well we block the shots.

If a goalie, himself, is "streaky" on this level. Meaning, his performance changes significantly within a bunch of games. He is a ****** goalie, and has no reason to play on the NHL.

Even the best in the world, Price and Lunqvist incuded, go through bad "streaks" It happens to every goalie. It just happens less frequently with those guys and their bad streaks are usually shorter than mediocre goalie's like Pavelec.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How is that endorsing it?

I'm saying get rid of Pavelec and try out the "unproven" tenders when they're saying we can't let go of Pavelec until we have someone "proven".

I can't see where I wrote that I endorse keeping Pavelec.

I'm saying "unproven" or "proven" doesn't mean crap to me when you're comparing to Pavelec.

I see we are at cross purposes here.

The argument is that Pavelec is 'proven' inadequate. Hutch is not proven either adequate or inadequate. He is 'unproven'. That is what I understood you to say. Thus endorsing the 'unproven' argument. It is also what I understood the other poster to mean. That is why I said 'I don't get' your earlier post.

We are all in agreement here as far as I can see. (Not everyone on the board, just 3 in particular)

 

[Jets4Life]

Hutch hasn't really proven anything at the NHL level, and a buyout of Pavelec will not save you any real cap room towards re-signing those guys. The best option is a trade, but I don't think anyone is going to take him.

Hutch put up great numbers in the A playoffs and regular season last year and is putting up below avg NHL numbers now. Hellebuyck's great numbers in one pro season are fantastic but I don't think there's much wrong with having him in the A one more year. Not saying that Pavelec is the best option either but unless he can be traded, I think he's here one more season at least.

Hutch played at about a 0.935% average, for the first half of the season. It remains to be seen if he can bounce back, and repeat that success, but I honestly believe he can become a 0.915% career average goalie. In any case, I think he is better than Pavelec, who did the same thing in 2010-11. Hutch can improve on his game, as he has yet to peak. He only recently turned 25, and as a rookie, can work on his faults. It's too late for Pavelec, as he will be in his 7th full season.

It will all come down to training camp 2015, and I have no doubt Hellebuyck will impress, and win a spot on the jets team. What is even better is the Jets will save a great deal of money if they need to recall a goalie from the AHL, as there will be no travel expenses. The bottom line is Pavelec has never been a good goalie, and just by watching them both play this year, I am more confident with Hutch in het.

 

[tbcwpg]

Hutch played at about a 0.935% average, for the first half of the season. It remains to be seen if he can bounce back, and repeat that success, but I honestly believe he can become a 0.915% career average goalie. In any case, I think he is better than Pavelec, who did the same thing in 2010-11. Hutch can improve on his game, as he has yet to peak. He only recently turned 25, and as a rookie, can work on his faults. It's too late for Pavelec, as he will be in his 7th full season.

It will all come down to training camp 2015, and I have no doubt Hellebuyck will impress, and win a spot on the jets team. What is even better is the Jets will save a great deal of money if they need to recall a goalie from the AHL, as there will be no travel expenses. The bottom line is Pavelec has never been a good goalie, and just by watching them both play this year, I am more confident with Hutch in het.

I'm not as confident with Hutch LATELY, and I don't think we have time to let him play out of his issues. At this point, with 5 games remaining, I'm no more confident with one over the other right now. Not endorsing Pavelec, just looking short term here.

Pavelec's contract makes it much more difficult to just say we'll leave it up to training camp.

 

[Le Golie]

Hutch played at about a 0.935% average, for the first half of the season. It remains to be seen if he can bounce back, and repeat that success, but I honestly believe he can become a 0.915% career average goalie. In any case, I think he is better than Pavelec, who did the same thing in 2010-11. Hutch can improve on his game, as he has yet to peak. He only recently turned 25, and as a rookie, can work on his faults. It's too late for Pavelec, as he will be in his 7th full season.

It will all come down to training camp 2015, and I have no doubt Hellebuyck will impress, and win a spot on the jets team. What is even better is the Jets will save a great deal of money if they need to recall a goalie from the AHL, as there will be no travel expenses. The bottom line is Pavelec has never been a good goalie, and just by watching them both play this year, I am more confident with Hutch in het.

It's good that you "think" Hutch can become an average goalie but with five games left how can you go with the worst goalie in the NHL since January over anyone?

Face it, Hutch has worse numbers than Pavs this season and his tank job over the last two months likely sunk the season. How could the coaches go back to him now?

Five games left and every point is crucial. One goalie has rendered himself unstartable due to his abysmal play. The other guy hasn't. That's why Pavs will play this out.

I'm sure Maurice wishes he had a better option but right now he's just got Hutch, who has been beyond terrible despite his small but devout cult following.

 

[garret9]

No recency bias is more prevalent in hockey then looking at past streaks as luck and most recent streaks as talent.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

No recency bias is more prevalent in hockey then looking at past streaks as luck and most recent streaks as talent.

Given that streaks are a real thing, and Pavs seems to be on a better one than Hutch, would you start Pavs right now? Or would you go with the lifetime stats and start Hutch?

Granted, enough time has gone by since Hutch played that maybe he's over whatever bad streak he was on.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Given that streaks are a real thing, and Pavs seems to be on a better one than Hutch, would you start Pavs right now? Or would you go with the lifetime stats and start Hutch?

Granted, enough time has gone by since Hutch played that maybe he's over whatever bad streak he was on.

That plus Pav's hot streak is over. I'd go back to Hutch today but really it is a coin toss and neither possibility is very attractive right now.

 

[angrymnky]

Anybody ever doubt their certainty? I can only imagine the flak someone would have gotten at the beginning of the year who said in a close playoff race at the end of the year Hutchinson would deliver .850 games and be benched for Pavs who goes on a hot streak for many games. Yet it happens.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

That plus Pav's hot streak is over. I'd go back to Hutch today but really it is a coin toss and neither possibility is very attractive right now.

Agreed on the coin toss. We desperately need a trick coin that has "hot streak" on both sides. Then I don't care who plays.

 

[pucka lucka]

So is this still the new Pavs?

 

[Hank Chinaski]

It's good that you "think" Hutch can become an average goalie but with five games left how can you go with the worst goalie in the NHL since January over anyone?

Face it, Hutch has worse numbers than Pavs this season and his tank job over the last two months likely sunk the season. How could the coaches go back to him now?

Five games left and every point is crucial. One goalie has rendered himself unstartable due to his abysmal play. The other guy hasn't. That's why Pavs will play this out.

I'm sure Maurice wishes he had a better option but right now he's just got Hutch, who has been beyond terrible despite his small but devout cult following.

As a card-carrying member of Hutch's "cult following", I'll say it right now: I don't think Hutchinson is going to be a great netminder. I'm thinking he's probably going to end up like Karri Ramo, in other words a decent 1B option.

Whatever Hutchinson does in the NHL won't change the fact that Pavelec sucks. It comes down to picking the guy who might suck over the guy who flat-out does suck.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

So is this still the new Pavs?

He served his purpose, and timed his semi-annual hot streak quite nicely.

There isn't any case for starting Pavelec at this point, although I'm sure someone will dig their heels in and let us know how bad Hutchinson is. Heck, I remember when people were writing Hutchinson off as trash after the preseason and his first start vs. LA. Oops.

 

[cbcwpg]

. It comes down to picking the guy who might suck over the guy who flat-out does suck.

Must be nice to be an NHL coach when your GM decides to let you decide each game, who has less suck-age.

 

[tacogeoff]

It's good that you "think" Hutch can become an average goalie but with five games left how can you go with the worst goalie in the NHL since January over anyone?

Face it, Hutch has worse numbers than Pavs this season and his tank job over the last two months likely sunk the season. How could the coaches go back to him now?

Five games left and every point is crucial. One goalie has rendered himself unstartable due to his abysmal play. The other guy hasn't. That's why Pavs will play this out.

I'm sure Maurice wishes he had a better option but right now he's just got Hutch, who has been beyond terrible despite his small but devout cult following.

But his stellar play in the first half is part of the major reason we are in the hunt for a wildcard. kind of a double edged sword if you ask me.

regardless...Go Jets Go. I could care less who starts at this point, just win!!

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Question: Does the Jets Goaltending Suck?

Answer: Yes. Yes it does.

 

[mcpw]

Question: Does the Jets Goaltending Suck?

Answer: Yes. Yes it does.

Answer: Not this year.

 

[knorthern knight]

Pavelec's 3rd sub-par game in row, but we won this one. It brings his season SV% down to .915. Here is the running total season SV% graph

Since his start-of-season hot-streak, he's now at .908 SV%

And here's the goals-allowed-per-appearance percentage histogram

 

[Hollywood3]

Pav has turned into a pumpkin.

Pav's "best before" date was March 27, 2015.

Just when the Jets were about to get off the island, Pavilligan fell down and smashed everything all to he££.

 

[Jets4Life]

It's good that you "think" Hutch can become an average goalie but with five games left how can you go with the worst goalie in the NHL since January over anyone?

Hutch was the best goalie in the league up until All Star break. I see the glass as being half full.

Face it, Hutch has worse numbers than Pavs this season and his tank job over the last two months likely sunk the season. How could the coaches go back to him now?

Hutch has arguably better numbers than Pavelec. They are nearly identical in terms of save percentage, but Hutch is 20-10-5, while Pavelec is 20-16-7. In addition, Hutch has a much better record playing tougher competition.

Five games left and every point is crucial. One goalie has rendered himself unstartable due to his abysmal play. The other guy hasn't. That's why Pavs will play this out.

That's also why we lost against Chicago and the Rangers. Pavelec has been an abysmal 0.859% in the last 3 games. If you took away his 6 game hot streak, this would not even be close.

I'm sure Maurice wishes he had a better option but right now he's just got Hutch, who has been beyond terrible despite his small but devout cult following.

Small but devout following? What on earth are you talking about? You may want to replace "Hutch" with "Pavelec" and that statement would be more accurate.

 

[Jets4Life]

That plus Pav's hot streak is over. I'd go back to Hutch today but really it is a coin toss and neither possibility is very attractive right now.

Yup. It's a coin toss at this point. May as well see what Hutch can do, as he has caused trouble for the Wild this season:

Vs Minnesota:

Nov.16 (Pavelec pulled in 4-3 OT loss) 16 saves, 0.938%
Dec 27: 4-3 OT win, 22 saves, 0.880%
Dec 29: 3-2 loss, 28 saves, 0.903%
Feb 10: 2-1 OT win, 29 saves, 0.967%

Total: 2-1-1, 95 saves, 0.922% vs Minnesota.

 

[wpgallday1960]

I hope Hutch can start one of the B2Bs. Pavelec's performance over the last 3 games hasn't earned him the right to start both, IMO.

 

[Prot]

One thing that will never get old to me here is watching most of you clamour over the 'other' goalie.

I've said it since the Jets came back... the way this team cannot clear the net, every single goalie, including Grant Fuhr with a pound of Columbia's finest in front of him, won't maintain any star-like numbers for long.

Do I think Pavelec is the answer? Nope. Do I think Hutch will fair any better? Nope.

Flip a coin, then complain the next morning. Rinse and repeat.

And you can throw any stat, or chart at me you want. I see this unwavering 'grass is greener' opinion going back to Chris Mason to Montoya and now Hutch.

The way we play when we have a lead is a entire pile of goalie stat killing playstyle.... it's horrid.