It’s tough to even say if this will cost him re-election or not. I have lost faith in my fellow Americans who don’t see through what we have as our “leaders” currently.
The record of incompetence in dealing with this crisis is irrefutable, there were repeated warnings, from the transition team, to the "war games" of the deep state (i.e. the bureaucrats who actually have expertise), the intelligence community, all were ignored because it wasn't politically convenient and this administration simply lacks the intellectual capacity to understand the threat and made loyalty to the POTUS, not competence, the lodestone for political appointees.
As the bodies pile up (I expect we'll pass a thousand dead by next weekend, and 10,000 by May as the virus continues to spread exponentially, it will be impossible for the Administration to avoid blame - videotape doesn't disappear - and the comments made in February (nothing to see here, move on) and early March will grate forever (and Hannity can claim he didn't call it a hoax, but this isn't China, you can't scrub the internet clean).
Is This Timeline of Trump's Coronavirus Responses Accurate?
Hannity claims he’s "never called the virus a hoax" 9 days after decrying Democrats’ "new hoax"
Most people don't get exponential growth, but it's real simple, if an infected person gives the disease to one other person per day, 1 infects 1, 2 infect 2, 4 infect 4, 8 infect 8 and so on. At the end of the week the initial person is now 64 carriers.
While the initial disease vectors drop out after a week or so, by then there are numerous more spreading the virus.
So the next week 64 to 128 (minus 1), 254 (minus 2), 504 (minus 4), 1000 (minus 8), 1984 (minus 16) and so on . . .
Since we're only testing those with serious symptoms, 10? 50? go untested for every test and continue to spread the virus.