Speculation: Alexander Radulov Thread | Successfully Swam The Atlantic | Where Will He Sign?

[cgf]

You're b****ing about a coach actually having the courage to make changes after a win, instead of falling into the trap most do?

 

[the_fan]

You dont change things if it works, what's the point?

 

[LieutenantDangle]

I don't know about that, there were times in the season where Roy changed lines even after a win, which would leave you puzzled as to why he would do that.

lets be realistic, you can't be feeding guys like marty and other crap bottom 6 guys top 6 minutes night in and night out. they wear out. you can have temporary fill ins... i could see that being one reason to shuffle lines. another reason would be suspensions/injuries, callups etc...

its easy to dump on Roy and fabricate things that aren't entirely true, but i think you're smarter than to actually believe everything that you say

 

[the_fan]

Roy has always talked about being a balanced team, so he experimented all those line combinations, putting bottom 6 forwards on top 6, moving MacKinnon down to 3rd line, and that experiment was one of the biggest reasons they didn't make the playoffs.

I know people don't want to admit that Roy screwed up because well, it's Roy, but let's not pretend he did a good job because he really didn't.

 

[cgf]

You dont change things if it works, what's the point?

The point is one (or even a couple) win(s) isn't proof that something works moving forward. A coach can make every wrong decision and still fluke out a win. Does that mean he shouldn't correct his mistakes before the next match? Just because it worked once?

Players get tired, players get banged up, while others recover, young players improve, while old ones fade, lines grow stale and need to sparked, opponents adjust & adapt to what you're doing...and when, on top of all that, you're also dealing with the kind of on-ice liabilities Patrick had to shuffle around last year; it becomes even more imperative that a coach stay ahead of the collapse and tweak things as you go.

The legitimate gripe with patrick was that he stuck with things for too long and that too often he fell into that "never make changes after wins" fallacy; not that he was too quick on the trigger.

 

[LieutenantDangle]

Roy has always talked about being a balanced team, so he experimented all those line combinations, putting bottom 6 forwards on top 6, moving MacKinnon down to 3rd line, and that experiment was one of the biggest reasons they didn't make the playoffs.

I know people don't want to admit that Roy screwed up because well, it's Roy, but let's not pretend he did a good job because he really didn't.

we will just have to agree to disagree, but getting back to my original point, this team could be lethal offensively if Rads joins and has chemistry with duchene. like really lethal. i think duchene could easily put up sequin numbers with Radulov on his wing full time

 

[Tweaky]

Let's see. Last year, Panarin scored 62 points in 52 games in the KHL That was good for 5th in points and 3rd in PPG, well behind league leader Radulov at 71p in 46g. This year, he comes in to the NHL and scores 77p in 80g. So he went from 1.15ppg to 0.963ppg. A bit of a drop. But he did have the benefit of playing with this years Art Ross winner...but so did Anisimov, who only had 42p in 77g. And last year with SKA, he played with Kovalchuk, who may be getting old, but was still 1.02ppg.

Now let's look at Radulov. Last year: 1.54ppg, this year: 1.23ppg. But this year, his highest scoring teammate had just 36p in 51g.

So by all accounts, Radulov is better than Panarin. And depending on how you look at it, you could say by quite a bit (I wont go that far, but some might). So why should we not expect Radulov to match Panarin's production? Not playing with Kane in a career year might hurt that effort a bit, but being better than AP will help. And it is not like we do not have a center that has come close to PPG before.

I woul not be at all surprised to see Radulov come close to PPG, regardless of where he plays. Because where ever it is, he will be the top line RW. The only teams that have a comparable or better RW are not in the running for him IMO.

My biggest concerns will be penalty and suspension issues possibly.

 

[the_fan]

The point is one (or even a couple) win(s) isn't proof that something works moving forward. A coach can make every wrong decision and still fluke out a win. Does that mean he shouldn't correct his mistakes before the next match? Just because it worked once?

Players get tired, players get banged up, while others recover, young players improve, while old ones fade, lines grow stale and need to sparked, opponents adjust & adapt to what you're doing...and when, on top of all that, you're also dealing with the kind of on-ice liabilities Patrick had to shuffle around last year; it becomes even more imperative that a coach stay ahead of the collapse and tweak things as you go.

The bigger gripe with patrick was that he stuck with things for too long, and too often fell into the "never make changes after wins" fallacy; rather than that he was too quick on the trigger.

All I know is that pretty much every team that made the playoffs has consistency as far as who's playing with who, specially their top 2 lines, because it's common sense, if you change things all the time there will be chemistry issue.

Roy did keep couple of players together for long time but it was mostly his bottom 6, he couldn't find the right combo for Duchene and MacKinnon, both have spent time playing wing and center, up and down the roster, and whole bunch of different line mates. And even when it looked like Duchene or MacKinnon may have found chemistry with someone on top 6, Roy would change things because maybe someone on the bottom 6 wasn't producing to his likings, so he felt like they need to be moved up the roster.

Again, you can defend Roy all you want, but I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who was scratching his head being puzzled at some of Roy's line combos

 

[cgf]

[snip]

It just doesn't work that way.

I agree with your conclusion, but you just can't use other players' NHL & KHL numbers like that. Even if you try to normalize for the teams around the players in both leagues...which is especially impossible when looking at guys playing on a line with Patrick Kane in full [MOD] mode.

 

[cgf]

All I know is that pretty much every team that made the playoffs has consistency as far as who's playing with who, specially their top 2 lines, because it's common sense, if you change things all the time there will be chemistry issue.

Roy did keep couple of players together for long time but it was mostly his bottom 6, he couldn't find the right combo for Duchene and MacKinnon, both have spent time playing wing and center, up and down the roster, and whole bunch of different line mates. And even when it looked like Duchene or MacKinnon may have found chemistry with someone on top 6, Roy would change things because maybe someone on the bottom 6 wasn't producing to his likings, so he felt like they need to be moved up the roster.

Do you think that maybe these two things are connected to the fact that those teams didn't start the season with Iginla & Tanguay's corpses in their top 6? We had 4 actual top 6 players when the season began, and 3 of them are centers. (Duchene, MacKinnon, Soderberg, and Landeskog)

Once Greg was ready for top 6 minutes; he found chemistry with both MacK and Dutchy, and played with Duchene consistently down the stretch. Once Boedker arrived on the scene he was attached to MacKinnon's hip until Mack's season ended. Just about the only times Landeskog wasn't on MacKinnon's line was when he was on the Soderberg line; which had tremendous chemistry to, and did a lot of heavy lifting for us.

[...]I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who was scratching his head being puzzled at some of Roy's line combos

You're right, you weren't. So was I. I couldn't believe how long it took him to change things that obviously weren't working, even if they hadn't cost us the W in our previous game.

 

[AMDZen]

Jason Demers is flipping awesome. He would totally improve this team. Love that play he just made

 

[the_fan]

Do you think that maybe these two things are connected to the fact that those teams didn't start the season with Iginla & Tanguay's corpses in their top 6? We had 4 actual top 6 players when the season began, and 3 of them are centers.

Once Greg was ready for top 6 minutes; he found chemistry with both MacK and Dutchy, and played with Duchene consistently down the stretch. Once Boedker arrived on the scene he was attached to MacKinnon's hip until Mack's season ended. Just about the only times Landeskog wasn't on MacKinnon's line was when he was on the Soderberg line; which had tremendous chemistry to, and did a lot of heavy lifting for us.



You're right, you weren't. So was I. I couldn't believe how long he took to change things that obviously weren't working, even if they hadn't cost us the W in our previous game.

MacKinnon with Duchene on his wing was working just fine, and those 2 were actually starting to get recognized as one of the top duos in the league. I get that Roy may have changed it because Duchene is a center and that's where he wanted him to be, but why start the experiment of putting Duchene on the wing in the 1st place if eventually you gonna put him back at center? All that does is screws up the chemistry and the player production. The reason Duchene scored 30 goals is because he played wing for a while, the reason his assists and total point production was low is because he was moved from center to wing

My point is, if Roy kept Duchene at one position he'd get more out of him, he should of stayed at wing because Duchene is a better shooter than a play maker.

 

[cgf]

Jason Demers is flipping awesome. He would totally improve this team. Love that play he just made

The question isn't would you love to add Demers to our roster, the question is do you 5.5-6.0M a year, or more, love him? Particularly if that cap-hit cost us the opportunity to add a top 6 forward without trading Barrie or Varlamov?

Me, I just don't 5.5+ per love Demers, not with the young talent we have on D, or the holes we have up front. If we could move Beauch and give Demers that money, I'd be totally down, but unless everything goes our way cap-wise; I'd rather go after the top 6er we need and then pursue a lesser option who could do well as a third pairing RHD, like Gudas/Gryba/Polak/etc., if we can afford it.

 

[cgf]

MacKinnon with Duchene on his wing was working just fine, and those 2 were actually starting to get recognized as one of the top duos in the league. I get that Roy may have changed it because Duchene is a center and that's where he wanted him to be, but why start the experiment of putting Duchene on the wing in the 1st place if eventually you gonna put him back at center? All that does is screws up the chemistry and the player production. The reason Duchene scored 30 goals is because he played wing for a while, the reason his assists and total point production was low is because he was moved from center to wing

My point is, if Roy kept Duchene at one position he'd get more out of him, he should of stayed at wing because Duchene is a better shooter than a play maker.

That line was stale, and teams were focusing in on it too easily to neutralize our whole offense when they didn't deliver. I was calling for it to be broken up well before it actually was; and I don't think I was the first one to do so. That line is an example of Roy taking too long to make changes, not Roy being too hasty to pul the trigger.

 

[the_fan]

That line was stale, and teams were focusing in on it too easily to neutralize our whole offense when they didn't deliver. I was calling for it to be broken up well before it actually was; and I don't think I was the first one to do so. That line is an example of Roy taking too long to make changes, not Roy being too hasty to pul the trigger.

Ok well, to not derail further more from Radulov topic, if Avs do get him, I hope Roy doesn't move him around too much and finds line chemistry and sticks with it, I'm more of a fan of sticking with same lines than shuffling em.

 

[Freudian]

The question isn't would you love to add Demers to our roster, the question is do you 5.5-6.0M a year, or more, love him? Particularly if that cap-hit cost us the opportunity to add a top 6 forward without trading Barrie or Varlamov?

Me, I just don't 5.5+ per love Demers, not with the young talent we have on D, or the holes we have up front. If we could move Beauch and give Demers that money, I'd be totally down, but unless everything goes our way cap-wise; I'd rather go after the top 6er we need and then pursue a lesser option who could do well as a third pairing RHD, like Gudas/Gryba/Polak/etc., if we can afford it.

It's also another defender that would have to be protected in an expansion draft.

 

[AslanRH]

Why are we sure Radulov is going to sign for 1 year as a UFA, but the other UFAs wont or vice versa? Everyone gets the expansion complications but everyone also understands the security of term.

 

[Tweaky]

Because Radulov knows that he can make more by signing a one year deal. He has to play one season and prove to the world that he can produce in the NHL before he gets the crazy $8M per year contract he probably wants. Nobody will give that to him this year. But if he plays one year and goes PPG, he will get that, or more. So he plays one at $5M, then 4 at $8M, makes $37M. If he signs a 5 year contract right away, I doubt he gets better then that same $5M given the perceived risk.


cgf - Obviously you cant generalize based on one player. But you can say that one player is better than another based on play in one league, then predict with some confidence that they will produce better in another league. Kane's performance is a caveat to predicting PPG for Radulov, yes. But as AR is better than AP, it should still be close. Basically, I am betting that Panarin+Kane ~= Rads+Duchene next year (if that is the combo). I could be wrong, but I don't think so. (Funny enough, I never think I am wrong , at least not until proven otherwise...like most of us here.)

 

[CalderKing21]

Why are we sure Radulov is going to sign for 1 year as a UFA, but the other UFAs wont or vice versa? Everyone gets the expansion complications but everyone also understands the security of term.

Makes more sense for him from a monetary standpoint.
He can also bolt for the KHL without a fuss should it not work out well where he signs.

 

[cgf]

@Tweak[MOD]

Again I hear what you're saying but it just doesn't work like that when it comes to predicting production; predicting impact on the ice maybe, but not predicting #s. If the hawks as a team are better at moving the puck, creating offensive chances and drawing PPs, then even if Rads+Dutchy/MacK ~= Panarain+Kane's impact, they won't produce the same kind of numbers; ya know?

Plus Patrick Kane was in such unreal form this year, that it would take damn near career years from Rads and Dutchy to match what Kane did with the Breadman riding shotgun. He was just that filthy this season. I know the #s say you take Seguin&Benn, but with Kane at the level he was at I take him and Panarin over the Dallas duo.

...though if everything clicks, Rads does have the talent to unlock that level of Duchene that we've only ever seen the first glimpses of during that season next to ROR, if he does that while being able to thrive himself we could certainly have a Seguin-Benn of our own.

 

[AslanRH]

but he's easily a premier player in the world. That's why we want him so bad right? you mean GMs think there may be risk he isn't as premier against NHL competition?

Then the question is, if he proves himself with the Avs, will the Avs be able to afford to keep him.

 

[LieutenantDangle]

but he's easily a premier player in the world. That's why we want him so bad right? you mean GMs think there may be risk he isn't as premier against NHL competition?

Then the question is, if he proves himself with the Avs, will the Avs be able to afford to keep him.

the cap situation should be much better that following season. but this is a very good question. will he be worth what he demands on the following contract? he probably isn't a long term solution, but having him next season would be huge

 

[The Merchant]

Been busy at work all day. Any news? Inklings?

 

[Tweaky]

cgf- I am not predicting that Rads will match Kane. I am saying that he will match Panarin. I worded that wrong...nobody is cracking 100pts as an Av next year, sorry it came across like that. I think he is good enough to drag Duchene up enough for both of them to be PPG, but 0.95ppg (78pts) for Rads and 0.85ppg (70pts) for Matty is more realistic. And if MacK ends up on the other wing somehow....then 250pts between the 3 of them would not be a surprise to me....would not expect it, but would not be shocked either. Not sure how likely that line combo would be though.


And yes, I need caffeine. Well, sleep anyhow. Have not slept yet, going to fix that now

 

[BoxOfChocolates]

Been busy at work all day. Any news? Inklings?

Nothing. I suspect we'll hear something tomorrow though