NFL: AFC playoff race

[Tuggy]

I've gone through the playoff predictor a bunch of times and 10-6 is really the only path for the Pats to get in.

There is a chance at 9-7 but very unlikely. If they go 10-6, then I like their chances based on other teams having to play each other and the Pats having tiebreakers.

Really tough schedule to run the table though...

 

[member 157595]

The fact that the Patriots are even in the playoff conversation considering how extraordinarily depleted they are from a roster standpoint is yet another testament to how incredibly good a head coach they have.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Patriots defense is hitting their stride at the right time like they do every year.

If the Patriots had a QB that can throw the football without turning it over they would be in a good spot, but that's clearly not the case.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Miami's path is pretty simple from what I gathered out of fiddling with the playoff machine; beat Vegas in week 16 and you're in.

If not, they need to find a way to beat one of the Chiefs or Bills and hope the Colts flame out.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Fun scenario this week: the 2nd place team has clinched a playoff spot but the 1st place team has not (and it's not because of clinching their division, either)

AFTER WEEK 13 (x-Clinched playoff spot)
1. Pittsburgh - 11-1 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over KC)
2. x-Kansas City - 11-1
3. Buffalo - 9-3
4. Tennessee - 8-4 (Holds Divisional Record tiebreaker over IND)
5. Cleveland - 9-3
6. Miami - 8-4 (Owns Conference Record tiebreaker over IND)
7. Indianapolis - 8-4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Las Vegas - 7-5 (Owns Conference Record tiebreaker over BAL)
9. Baltimore - 7-5 (Eliminated from AFC North contention)
10. New England - 6-6
11. Denver - 4-8 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over HOU) (Eliminated from AFC West contention)
12. Houston - 4-8
ELIMINATED: NY Jets (0-11), Jacksonville (1-10), Cincinnati (2-9-1), LA Chargers (3-9)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Pittsburgh clinches the AFC North with a win and a CLE loss
- Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with a win, TEN loss, MIA loss, or LV loss
- Kansas City clinches the AFC West with a win or a LV loss
- Buffalo clinches a playoff spot with a win, MIA loss, BAL loss, LV loss, and NE loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS
- Houston is eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss, TEN win, or IND win
- Houston is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss OR a TEN win, and either an IND or MIA win
- Denver is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss OR a IND win, TEN win, and MIA win.

The following teams control their own destiny for a division title: PIT, KC, TEN, BUF
- Tennessee will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a loss
- Miami will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC East with a win and a BUF loss
- Indianapolis will gain control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a TEN loss

The following teams control their own destiny for a playoff spot: PIT, KC, TEN, BUF, CLE, MIA, IND, LV
- Tennessee will lose control of their own destiny for the playoffs with a loss, LV win, and MIA win
- Indianapolis will lose control of their own destiny for the playoffs with a loss, TEN win and either a BAL win or a MIA+LV win (if TEN doesn't win, IND will at least control their own destiny in the AFC South)
- Las Vegas will lose control of their own destiny for the playoffs with a loss and a NE or MIA win
- New England will gain control of their own destiny for the playoffs with a win, BAL loss, LV loss, and a BUF OR MIA loss

 

[PanthersPens62]

Miami's path is pretty simple from what I gathered out of fiddling with the playoff machine; beat Vegas in week 16 and you're in.

If not, they need to find a way to beat one of the Chiefs or Bills and hope the Colts flame out.

I'm getting increasingly concerned about the Pats game, considering that now The Belly is 21-5 against rookie QB's. Trouble is Fitz also wet the bed against them in week 1, so I don't see a real advantage with either QB. Hopefully Chan will stick to the uptempo offense that worked so well in the 2nd half against Cincy. Tua really did well with it.

The Fins need to find 2 wins in the final 4, one of which must come in LV. Looking at the Colts remaining schedule, I don't see them finishing worse than 10-6.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

I'm getting increasingly concerned about the Pats game, considering that now The Belly is 21-5 against rookie QB's. Trouble is Fitz also wet the bed against them in week 1, so I don't see a real advantage with either QB. Hopefully Chan will stick to the uptempo offense that worked so well in the 2nd half against Cincy. Tua really did well with it.

The Fins need to find 2 wins in the final 4, one of which must come in LV. Looking at the Colts remaining schedule, I don't see them finishing worse than 10-6.

The Patriots also like to party in Miami and subsequently lay a massive egg when they play the fins on the road.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I could still see New England finishing ahead of Miami if they win out (Miami would have to beat one of the Bills or Chiefs to finish ahead of NE if NE wins out). The problem is the Ravens are likely to take that final playoff spot if they do. It's gonna take upsets for the 7th seed in the AFC to be 9-7.

 

[TheAngryHank]

I could still see New England finishing ahead of Miami if they win out (Miami would have to beat one of the Bills or Chiefs to finish ahead of NE if NE wins out). The problem is the Ravens are likely to take that final playoff spot if they do. It's gonna take upsets for the 7th seed in the AFC to be 9-7.

Ill join you as the first to dance on thier grave (so to speak)

 

[StreetHawk]

Ill join you as the first to dance on thier grave (so to speak)

Browns need 1 win to get to 10. Indy needs to go 2-2 to get to 10.

LV needs to split Indy and Miami. And take care of Denver and chargers to get to 10.

so a lot needs to go right for NE to be the final WC at 9-7 as Bal and Miami are still in the mix to get to 10 wins as well.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd the Pats are done. I got enthusiastic too soon

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd the Pats are done. I got enthusiastic too soon

So who's the next team you will became fan of my brother?

lol j/k.

Its gonna be a long rebuild for you and other Patriots fans. I don't think patriots will ever be so bad under Bill they get the first overall pick. Or top 3.

But Bill is almost at the end of his career.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

So who's the next team you will became fan of my brother?

lol j/k.

Its gonna be a long rebuild for you and other Patriots fans. I don't think patriots will ever be so bad under Bill they get the first overall pick. Or top 3.

But Bill is almost at the end of his career.

I have been a Pats fan since I started watching football in 1996 (we got all the games on TV, that's the reason why). Not switching any time soon.

Rebuild could be pretty quick depending on our ability to grab a QB. We have a lot of cap space and some good young pieces.

I mean, we won't dominate the league for another 20 years, but making the playoffs in a year or two is not out of the question. We are having a respectable season despite a depleted roster and a QB who cannot pass.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

I have been a Pats fan since I started watching football in 1996 (we got all the games on TV, that's the reason why). Not switching any time soon.

Rebuild could be pretty quick depending on our ability to grab a QB. We have a lot of cap space and some good young pieces.

I mean, we won't dominate the league for another 20 years, but making the playoffs in a year or two is not out of the question. We are having a respectable season despite a depleted roster and a QB who cannot pass.

We are one forward passing QB away from a playoff spot.

 

[DangleCity]

I have been a Pats fan since I started watching football in 1996 (we got all the games on TV, that's the reason why). Not switching any time soon.

Rebuild could be pretty quick depending on our ability to grab a QB. We have a lot of cap space and some good young pieces.

I mean, we won't dominate the league for another 20 years, but making the playoffs in a year or two is not out of the question. We are having a respectable season despite a depleted roster and a QB who cannot pass.

They need to do a minimum of two of the following, draft a QB with their first pick (as long as they like the player. Dont draft a QB just to draft one), bring in a vet like Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Taylor, etc., and bring in a reclamation project like Jimmy G or Darnold.

 

[DueDiligence]

They need to do a minimum of two of the following, draft a QB with their first pick (as long as they like the player. Dont draft a QB just to draft one), bring in a vet like Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Taylor, etc., and bring in a reclamation project like Jimmy G or Darnold.

Jimmy G is a very expensive reclamation project so I doubt the Pats are getting him.

 

[TheAngryHank]

Jimmy G is a very expensive reclamation project so I doubt the Pats are getting him.

Denver would probably trade Lock for a ham sandwich.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

I have been a Pats fan since I started watching football in 1996 (we got all the games on TV, that's the reason why). Not switching any time soon.

At least you aren't a Cowboys fan.

 

[StreetHawk]

Jimmy G is a very expensive reclamation project so I doubt the Pats are getting him.

Jimmy may get cut depending on what SF does or if he is traded may redo his contract which also works for Jimmy as he has no more guaranteed money moving forward.

I don’t like the idea of drafting a an just to get one. Best to not waste a pick unless you truly believe in the guy. What good did it do the Jets to spend 2nds of geno smith and Hackenberg? Either get someone you will commit 2-3 seasons to or grab a veteran. Not like the rest of the team if SB worthy right now.

not talking about the Bears D from 2018 season who needed a QB to be solid

 

[Hockeyholic]

I don't see a scenario that any AFC team beats KC. Thus, it's irrelevant who else makes it.

I'll go a step further:

On paper there's no case to be made that KC loses to anyone the rest of the year (Postseason included).

Anything can happen. The 07 Patriots say hi. But again, there's just nobody else on their level.

 

[Ace]

The fact that the Patriots are even in the playoff conversation considering how extraordinarily depleted they are from a roster standpoint is yet another testament to how incredibly good a head coach they have.

even before Thursday the Patriots were “in the playoff conversation” the way the Bills were “in the playoff conversation” for two decades. Two games out with four to play...needing to jump over multiple teams...not eliminated but not bad enough to pull a high enough pick to get the game changer they need.

At the bottom of “in the hunt” in December is the worst place to be.

 

[StreetHawk]

Raiders now have to win out to get to 10-6.

Beat Chargers at home on TNF, then Miami at home, the finish on the road at Denver.

Raiders need to finish in the red zone as their Defence is not holding teams off the board and giving up chunk plays against.

 

[Blitzkrug]

I feel like the shitstorm we're seeing unfold ends up with Baltimore stealing the final wild card spot.

It would take the Dolphins essentially losing out (not impossible but not super likely) and then for the Raiders to piss away any momentum they might get from beating Miami by losing to Denver and then for the Ravens to play passable down the stretch to get them in 9-7.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

The situation now is:

Division leaders
1. KC 12-1 (clinched AFC West)
2. PIT 11-2 (clinched playoff spot)
3. BUF 10-3
4. TEN 9-4

Wild Cards
5. CLE 9-4
6. IND 9-4
7. MIA 8-5

IN THE HUNT
BAL 8-5
LV 7-6

The Dolphins being 5-4 in the AFC and the Ravens now 5-5 in the AFC is something to pay close attention to.

Browns go from being a virtual lock to now probably needing 2 wins since the Ravens swept them.

Raiders no longer control their destiny. Winning out gets them to 10-6 and puts Miami at 10-6 at best (with LV having the h-2-h tiebreak) but that's not enough now. In fact, the Raiders need some serious help now like 1 of the Jags/Giants/Bengals beating the Ravens or 1 of the Browns/Colts/Titans totally collapsing.

Also, keep in mind Baltimore beat the Colts and the Browns beat the Colts too. Indy has to keep winning and avoid being in a 2-way tie scenario with BAL or CLE for the last spot.

If you are wondering what happens if IND-TEN-MIA-CLE-BAL all end up 11-5 with CLE and IND each losing to PIT and TEN losing to GB, it's the Colts who would be OUT in that scenario. They lose the division to Titans. In the WC pool, the Dolphins beat them out on Conference record (8-4 vs 7-5). Ravens and Browns beat them out because the Colts lost to both.

 

[PanthersPens62]

I have this sickening feeling the Dolphins are going to miss out even by going 10-6. Ravens are going to win out. That means one of the Colts or Browns or Titans will need to lose 2 more games.

That loss to Denver is going to really bite them in the butt.