NFL: AFC playoff race

[member 157595]

I don't care what their record is, if the Dolphins cannot beat both the Jets and Burrow-less Bengals they flat out don't deserve a playoff berth in the first place.

I'm hoping that the Burrow injury happened for a reason and that Sewell falls to us on draft day and he becomes the second-coming of Anthony Munoz and we go 19-0 for each of the remaining Joe Burrow rookie contract years. That's how this football thing works, right?

 

[Blitzkrug]

If they can't beat the Jets they should be forced to relegate to the CFL or XFL.

I've put up with a lot of bullshit as a Dolphins fan but that would be the ultimate piss off, especially after the promising turn this season has taken. It would just be enforcement that the Dolphins are a sadsack franchise.

I feel like their best way in is hoping the Ravens continue to self destruct. I can't see them beating the Raiders with how bad their run defense is and they're sure as hell not beating the Chiefs considering barely anyone has been able to.

Buffalo is a more interesting matchup given they've been prone to some consistency issues but I'd still probably pick them to win

 

[misterchainsaw]

So I did some research. Exactly 1 team since the conference's went to 16 teams in 2002 have placed 8th in the conference at 10-6 or better, and that's either the 2010 Giants or Bucs (whoever lost their tiebreaker). However, that year also had Seattle winning their division at 7-9. 2012 is the last time that 7 teams in the same conference finished 10-6 or better. There's never been 8 (thanks to bad division winners). Here's the entire list of teams that missed at 10-6 or better since 2002:

2015 Jets (Division winning Houston made it in at 9-7)
2014 Eagles (Division winning Panthers made it in at 7-8-1)
2013 Cardinals (Division winning Packers made it in at 8-7-1)
2012 Bears
2010 Giants (Division winning Seattle made it in at 7-9)
2010 Buccaneers (See above)
2008 Patriots* (actually 11-5) (Division winning San Diego made it in at 8-8)
2006 Browns
2005 Chiefs
2003 Dolphins

Basically out of 36 opportunities (2 per year), the 8th placed team has been 10-6 exactly once. And that was in a season where a division winner was 7-9. It could happen again without the poor division winner this year, meaning the AFC has a chance to be the first conference to field 8 teams 10-6 or better in a season. A conference has fielded 7 10-6 or better teams 5 times out of a possible 36, the AFC seems likely here to make that 6, although it would (obviously) be the 1st time all 7 make the playoffs.

 

[misterchainsaw]

And now your regularly scheduled update. A comment regarding the verbiage I use in the tiebreakers. If I use "owns" it means the tiebreaker WILL end the season in favor of the team who currently holds it. If I use "holds" it means that the winner of that tiebreaker could change, either because a higher level tiebreaker such as H2H could come into play later or because the current tiebreaker being used could flip)

Also I missed Cincinnati being eliminated from AFC North contention with either a loss or PIT win last week, and I feel shame.

AFTER WEEK 11
1. Pittsburgh - 10-0
2. Kansas City - 9-1
3. Buffalo - 7-3 (Owns Conference Record tiebreaker over IND)
4. Indianapolis - 7-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over TEN)
5. Tennessee - 7-3 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over CLE)
6. Cleveland - 7-3
7. Las Vegas - 6-4 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over BAL and MIA)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Baltimore - 6-4 (Holds Strength of Victory tiebreaker over MIA)
9. Miami - 6-4
10. Denver - 4-6 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over NE)
11. New England - 4-6
12. LA Chargers - 3-7 (Holds Conference record tiebreaker over HOU)
13. Houston - 3-7
14. Cincinatti - 2-7-1 (Eliminated from AFC North contention)
15. Jacksonville - 1-9 (Eliminated from AFC South contention)
ELIMINATED: NY Jets (0-10)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with a win, LV loss, and MIA loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS
- Jacksonville is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss
- LA Chargers are eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss or a KC win
- Denver is eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss and a KC win

The following teams control their own destiny for a division title: PIT, KC, BUF, IND, TEN
- The loser of the IND/TEN game will lose control of their own destiny for the AFC South title.

The following teams control their own destiny for a playoff spot: PIT, KC, BUF, IND, TEN, CLE, LV, BAL, MIA
- Baltimore loses control of their own destiny for a playoff spot with a loss and either of the following: (1)MIA, CLE, and LV win OR (2) IND win, CLE win AND either LV or MIA win
- Miami loses control of their own destiny for a playoff spot with a loss, CLE win, and any of the following: (1)LV and BAL win, (2)IND and LV win, (3)TEN and BAL win

*The Miami scenarios where they miss out at 11-5 after losing to the Jets and then run the table are fun. They require the Browns to win the AFC North and then losing a 3 way tiebreaker with the Steelers and Raiders for the 6/7/8 spots (where the Raiders win the 6 spot via strength of victory and PIT does the same for the #7 over Miami). Realistically speaking, the Dolphins will still control their own destiny even with a loss this week.

It still very much remains a 7 team race for 5 spots. Denver and New England have outside shots, but New England in particular could still very easily miss out at 10-6. Both have difficult matchups this week as well while Miami and Cleveland have absolute cupcakes (and Buffalo and Las Vegas play 3-7 teams) so the stratification could be even more obvious at this point next week.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I will rage if a 10-6 Dolphins team misses the playoffs in a year when 7 teams make the playoffs. But their conference record will be an issue if they finish 10-6 as they would finish 7-5 in the AFC. Bottom line, they absolutely MUST win their next 2 games against the pathetic Jets & a Burrow-less Bungles team. Lose either of them & they don't even deserve a playoff spot. The Raiders game is now an absolute must win as well as they will need some sort of head to head advantage in a tie break situation. Assuming they can beat the Pats at home, I agree with what Marc said, they are going to need to steal 1 from either KC or Buffalo.

Bottom line, as a Dolphins fan I have to focus on the fact that they are ahead of schedule. Hardly anyone realistically expected them to compete for a playoff spot this year. And it was so much easier when I was emotionally detached from them the past few years!

Believe it or not the Dolphins conference record may not actually be much of an issue. They're almost certainly going to lose any tiebreaker to Buffalo on common games if not divisional record, but ALL of the other AFC wild card contenders have played quite well against the NFC (resulting in a worse than normal record against the NFC. Here's the records against NFC teams (remember, a better record here means you lose the conference record tiebreaker)
IND: 4-0
TEN: 2-0 (DET and GB remaining)
CLE: 3-0 (NYG remaining)
OAK: 2-1 (ATL remaining)
BAL: 2-0 (DAL and NYG remaining)
MIA: 3-1

I'd be surprised if ANY AFC team lost twice to the NFC, meaning Miami won't lose conference record tiebreakers against any of them (and they'll win conference record tiebreakers against IND and likely BAL and CLE).

What I would be worried about is every playoff team in the AFC ending at 11-5, meaning you'd have to either beat the Chiefs or the Bills. No one has a particularly tough schedule coming down the stretch and you need two teams to drop to 6 losses if you can't beat BUF or KC. Losing to Vegas instead of the Bills or Chiefs could be even more disastrous because of the tiebreaker implications.

 

[PanthersPens62]

Believe it or not the Dolphins conference record may not actually be much of an issue. They're almost certainly going to lose any tiebreaker to Buffalo on common games if not divisional record, but ALL of the other AFC wild card contenders have played quite well against the NFC (resulting in a worse than normal record against the NFC. Here's the records against NFC teams (remember, a better record here means you lose the conference record tiebreaker)
IND: 4-0
TEN: 2-0 (DET and GB remaining)
CLE: 3-0 (NYG remaining)
OAK: 2-1 (ATL remaining)
BAL: 2-0 (DAL and NYG remaining)
MIA: 3-1

I'd be surprised if ANY AFC team lost twice to the NFC, meaning Miami won't lose conference record tiebreakers against any of them (and they'll win conference record tiebreakers against IND and likely BAL and CLE).

What I would be worried about is every playoff team in the AFC ending at 11-5, meaning you'd have to either beat the Chiefs or the Bills. No one has a particularly tough schedule coming down the stretch and you need two teams to drop to 6 losses if you can't beat BUF or KC. Losing to Vegas instead of the Bills or Chiefs could be even more disastrous because of the tiebreaker implications.

Thanks for breaking this down this way.....BIG help in understanding the state of things. Good to see this many AFC teams still have a chance to go 4-0 against the NFC, thus helping Miami in tiebreak situations. And I remember 2003 when they missed out going 10-6. Miami has a history of doing so well against the NFC that it comes back to bite them come tiebreak time.

 

[PanthersPens62]

If they can't beat the Jets they should be forced to relegate to the CFL or XFL.

I've put up with a lot of bullshit as a Dolphins fan but that would be the ultimate piss off, especially after the promising turn this season has taken. It would just be enforcement that the Dolphins are a sadsack franchise.

I feel like their best way in is hoping the Ravens continue to self destruct. I can't see them beating the Raiders with how bad their run defense is and they're sure as hell not beating the Chiefs considering barely anyone has been able to.

Buffalo is a more interesting matchup given they've been prone to some consistency issues but I'd still probably pick them to win

The most alarming thing to me about yesterday was how much the OL regressed. If the OL plays like that in any other game including against the Jets, they are in huge trouble. The OL is the reason Tua looked horrible yesterday, just as the OL was the reason Tanny never had a chance here, and yet has blossomed in Tenn. Tua will only be as good as the OL allows him to be.

 

[Blitzkrug]

The most alarming thing to me about yesterday was how much the OL regressed. If the OL plays like that in any other game including against the Jets, they are in huge trouble. The OL is the reason Tua looked horrible yesterday, just as the OL was the reason Tanny never had a chance here, and yet has blossomed in Tenn. Tua will only be as good as the OL allows him to be.

If we're being real about it...on this winning streak the Dolphins hardly played anyone who can generate pressure worth a damn.

The Cardinals have no defense, let alone a pass rush. The Jets are a joke. The Jags traded their best two pass rushers before the season started. The Chargers can but their best pass rusher in Bosa is done for the year. The Rams made life hell for Tua but a lot of that was lost in the other story of the QB opposing him imploding. Denver's defense unlike those can generate heat with Fangio's aggressive scheme.

They were a better team than people gave them credit for but the winning streak masked a lot of issues the Dolphins are still working on. Rush defense and o-line in particular.

 

[PanthersPens62]

If we're being real about it...on this winning streak the Dolphins hardly played anyone who can generate pressure worth a damn.

The Cardinals have no defense, let alone a pass rush. The Jets are a joke. The Jags traded their best two pass rushers before the season started. The Chargers can but their best pass rusher in Bosa is done for the year. The Rams made life hell for Tua but a lot of that was lost in the other story of the QB opposing him imploding. Denver's defense unlike those can generate heat with Fangio's aggressive scheme.

They were a better team than people gave them credit for but the winning streak masked a lot of issues the Dolphins are still working on. Rush defense and o-line in particular.

Yeah, can't really find fault with any of what you said. As I said in a previous post, they are ahead of schedule now. I had them pegged at between 6 & 8 wins prior to the season, especially with what appeared to be a brutal schedule. Making the playoffs, if it happens, will be gravy. Its just frustrating when you seem to be getting so close & come up with a poor effort such as yesterday against a team they really should have beaten.

 

[misterchainsaw]

If we're being real about it...on this winning streak the Dolphins hardly played anyone who can generate pressure worth a damn.

The Cardinals have no defense, let alone a pass rush. The Jets are a joke. The Jags traded their best two pass rushers before the season started. The Chargers can but their best pass rusher in Bosa is done for the year. The Rams made life hell for Tua but a lot of that was lost in the other story of the QB opposing him imploding. Denver's defense unlike those can generate heat with Fangio's aggressive scheme.

They were a better team than people gave them credit for but the winning streak masked a lot of issues the Dolphins are still working on. Rush defense and o-line in particular.

Honestly from an outsider's perspective, 8-8 or 9-7 and just on the outside looking in puts you guys right on track on your rebuild, especially switching from an effective Fitzpatrick to a rookie Tua halfway through the year. Obviously frustrating though. We'll see if New England's defense bounces back next year when the opt outs come back, but the division is setting up to be a Buffalo/Miami battle for the next little while. Makes me nostalgic for the early 90's

 

[Blitzkrug]

Honestly from an outsider's perspective, 8-8 or 9-7 and just on the outside looking in puts you guys right on track on your rebuild, especially switching from an effective Fitzpatrick to a rookie Tua halfway through the year. Obviously frustrating though. We'll see if New England's defense bounces back next year when the opt outs come back, but the division is setting up to be a Buffalo/Miami battle for the next little while. Makes me nostalgic for the early 90's

I think us fans got a little bit too excited (i'm definitely guilty) with the sudden progression as pens said when in reality, this by all accounts is still a rebuilding team.

You can definitely tell the vibe is different when Dolphins fans are happy to see 8-8 or 9-7 and don't give a shit about their draft position though lol (thank you, Mr. O'Brien for the free top 5 pick)

 

[member 157595]

Miami is in good hands going forward. They're young, well-coached, and not in the toughest division.

I don't think they are as good as the Raiders this year but the expectations for the Raiders were higher.

 

[misterchainsaw]

This is kind of incredible this late in the year, but it's still possible for a 12-4 Browns team to miss the playoffs....at least until the Ravens lose tomorrow to Pittsburgh

I only specifically point out the Browns because they are the only team that can miss at 12-4...they end up on the wrong end of this cluster of a tiebreaker.

 

[StreetHawk]

Miami is in good hands going forward. They're young, well-coached, and not in the toughest division.

I don't think they are as good as the Raiders this year but the expectations for the Raiders were higher.

Raiders always seem to blow a game that they should win and it costs them. Last year it was to the Jets and they finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. This year they drop a game to Atlanta and now need to beat one of Indy or Miami and take care of busiensss elsewhere just to get to 10-6. And that infamous tuck rule year they lost late in NYJ and thus had to go in the road otherwise they host playoff games.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Vegas is actually in good shape since they can still get in with both losing to Miami and Indy. This requires the Ravens going 10-6 as well but it's certainly a possibility considering they're going into that Pittsburgh game tomorrow limping as is and still have the Browns on the schedule.

As more time passes, it looks more like that Denver loss is going to end up killing Miami

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Man, in the AFC, I see two teams that are much worse than their record indicates - Cleveland and Pittsburgh. I would fear KC, Buffalo, Tennessee and possibly Vegas more than I would any of those teams.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Division leaders
1. PIT 11-0
2. KC 10-1
3. TEN 8-3
4. BUF 8-3

Wild Cards
5. CLE 8-3
6. MIA 7-4
7. IND 7-4

IN THE HUNT
LV 6-5
BAL 6-5

 

[misterchainsaw]

AFTER WEEK 12
1. Pittsburgh - 11-0
2. Kansas City - 10-1
3. Tennessee - 8-3 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over BUF)
4. Buffalo - 8-3
5. Cleveland - 8-3
6. Miami - 7-4 (Owns Conference Record tiebreaker over IND)
7. Indianapolis - 7-4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Las Vegas - 6-5 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over BAL)
9. Baltimore - 6-5
10. New England - 5-6
11. Denver - 4-7 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over HOU) (Eliminated from AFC West contention)
12. Houston - 4-7
13. LA Chargers - 3-8 (Eliminated from AFC West contention)
14. Cincinnati - 2-8-1 (Eliminated from AFC North contention)
ELIMINATED: NY Jets (0-11), Jacksonville (1-10)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Pittsburgh clinches the AFC North with a win, a CLE loss, a DEN win, a BAL win, a CIN loss, an IND loss, and a NYJ loss (Clinches SoV for PIT over CLE in the event they both end 12-4)
- Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with a win, MIA loss, IND loss, or LV loss.
- Kansas City clinches the AFC West with a win and an OAK loss
- Kansas City clinches a playoff spot with a win

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS
- Houston is eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss and a TEN win.
- Cincinnati is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss OR a IND+LV win.
- The LA Chargers are eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and one of the following: (1) an IND win, or (2)a LV win and a MIA win

The following teams control their own destiny for a division title: PIT, KC, TEN, BUF
- Miami gains control of their own destiny in the AFC East with a win and a BUF loss

The following teams control their own destiny for a playoff spot: PIT, KC, TEN, BUF, CLE, MIA, IND, LV
- Indianapolis loses control of their own destiny for the playoffs with a loss and a BAL win
- Las Vegas loses control of their own destiny for the playoffs with a loss, IND win, and MIA win
- Baltimore gains control of their own destiny with a win and either (1)a CLE loss, (2)MIA and IND loss, or (3) a IND+LV loss and a PIT win (pittsburgh has to get out of the way of tiebreakers in this scenario)
- New England gains control of their own destiny for the playoffs with (1)a win, (2)a BUF or MIA loss, (3)a BAL loss, and (4) Two of the following three results: (a)a LV loss, (b)an IND loss, and (c)a KC win (again, getting out of the way of tiebreakers)

EDIT - Added PIT winning the AFC North scenario.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Division leaders
1. PIT 11-1
2. KC 11-1
3. BUF 9-3
4. TEN 8-4

Wild Cards
5. CLE 9-3
6. MIA 8-4
7. IND 8-4

IN THE HUNT
LV 7-5
BAL 7-5

So many fascinating games in week 14 as these teams meet each other:

KC @ MIA
IND @ LV
PIT @ BUF
BAL @ CLE

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Division leaders
1. PIT 11-1
2. KC 11-1
3. BUF 9-3
4. TEN 8-4

Wild Cards
5. CLE 9-3
6. MIA 8-4
7. IND 8-4

IN THE HUNT
LV 7-5
BAL 7-5

So many fascinating games in week 14 as these teams meet each other:

KC @ MIA
IND @ LV
PIT @ BUF
BAL @ CLE

Why are the Pats not "in the hunt" at 6-6 and holding tie-breakers against both the Ravens and Raiders? I know it is a long shot, but they are very much alive at this point.

 

[Barnum]

Why are the Pats not "in the hunt" at 6-6 and holding tie-breakers against both the Ravens and Raiders? I know it is a long shot, but they are very much alive at this point.

Lifelong Pats fan here and I mean going back to the early 70s. We don’t really have a true chance. So, many things need to happened that they have a 15% chance of making the post season. With Vegas and the Ravens winning and 4 games to go, I just don’t see it happening.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Lifelong Pats fan here and I mean going back to the early 70s. We don’t really have a true chance. So, many things need to happened that they have a 15% chance of making the post season. With Vegas and the Ravens winning and 4 games to go, I just don’t see it happening.

Me neither, but I think we are still alive. I mean, we basically have to win out and I do not think it will happen (we will lose AT LEAST one of Rams/Dolphins/Bills), but we are technically still in the hunt. Baltimore and LV only have to lose once. Miami would have to lose twice, but one of those would be against the Pats. Long shot, but doable. I would still consider them realistically in the hunt for at least this week.

But, yeah, it is just me nitpicking as a fan of the Pats and clinging to the faint hope of us making the playoffs

 

[DangleCity]

Was

Me neither, but I think we are still alive. I mean, we basically have to win out and I do not think it will happen (we will lose AT LEAST one of Rams/Dolphins/Bills), but we are technically still in the hunt. Baltimore and LV only have to lose once. Miami would have to lose twice, but one of those would be against the Pats. Long shot, but doable. I would still consider them realistically in the hunt for at least this week.

But, yeah, it is just me nitpicking as a fan of the Pats and clinging to the faint hope of us making the playoffs

If they lose the Rams game then win out and finish 9-7, they can still make the playoffs if a couple games fall their way. I believe its around 50/50 if they go 9-7.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Was

If they lose the Rams game then win out and finish 9-7, they can still make the playoffs if a couple games fall their way. I believe its around 50/50 if they go 9-7.

It would need a LOT of stuff going the Pats way to qualify at 9-7. I mean, we pretty much have to win out.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

If they get to within 1 game out, they will go on the table.

2 games out with 4 to play, needing to overtake 3 teams ahead of them and having to play 3 teams who have 8-9 wins is a daunting task.