NFL: AFC playoff race

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Division leaders
1. PIT 8-0
2. KC 8-1
3. BUF 7-2
4. TEN 6-2

Wild Card teams
5. BAL 6-2
6. LV 5-3
7. MIA 5-3

IN THE HUNT
CLE 5-3
IND 5-3

Shaping up to be a great race. The TEN-BAL-LV-MIA-CLE-IND group plays each other quite a bit too.

Click to read more...

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

I think it comes down to the Raiders, Browns or Colts for that last wild card spot

Raiders have done great having to deal with a tough early schedule so I'm giving them an edge over the Browns (have to face Titans, Ravens, Steelers) and Colts (have to face Titans x2, Packers, Steelers).

 

[Blitzkrug]

Miami and the Colts gets the Raiders later in the season so i have to imagine that probably decides who stays alive in the race. Assuming Baltimore is penciled into one of the three wild card spots (i think they are) the schedules look like;

Cleveland: Houston, Philly, @Jacksonville, @ Tennessee, Baltimore, @Giants, Jets, @Steelers

Las Vegas: Denver, Kansas City, @Atlanta, @Jets, Indianapolis, Chargers, Dolphins, @Denver

Indianapolis: @Tennessee , Green Bay, Tennessee, @Houston, @ Las Vegas, Houston, @Pittsburgh, Jacksonville

Miami: Chargers, @Denver, Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Jets, @ Las Vegas, Buffalo

Looking at that you'd have to think the Raiders would be in the driver's seat. With that schedule they could deal pretty big blows to both the Dolphins and Colts by beating them and forcing the two of them and Browns to scrap for one spot. Putting themselves in a nearly untouchable second wild card due to tiebreakers. I don't even know how Cleveland factors in given they're bipolar as shit.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

I think Miami is better than Lv and Cleveland

think with The browns is their sched is a breeze

 

[misterchainsaw]

Bigger post coming after the NE-NYJ game (could the Jets actually have a scenario where they are officially eliminated in week 10?), but one thing I noticed is that the Colts are the only team in the conference that doesn't currently lead their division that still controls their destiny for their division's title. KC, Buffalo, and PIT could all lose their remaining matchup with the 2nd place teams in their division (LV, MIA, and BAL, respectively) and still lock them out by beating everyone else.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I should mention that these posts exclude the possibility of ties & assumes every game will be played and have a winner. This far out trying to include ties just creates a mess., and it would literally be impossible to include the possibility of cancellations.

AFTER WEEK 9:
1. Pittsburgh - 8-0
2. Kansas City - 8-1
3. Buffalo - 7-2
4. Tennessee - 6-2
5. Baltimore - 6-2
6. Las Vegas 5-3 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over MIA, CLE, and IND)
7. Miami - 5-3 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over IND and Strength of victory tiebreaker over CLE)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Cleveland - 5-3 (Owns H2H tiebreaker vs IND)
9. Indianapolis - 5-3
10. Denver - 3-5 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over NE)
11. New England - 3-5
12. Cincinnati - 2-5-1
13. LA Chargers - 2-6 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over HOU)
14. Houston - 2-6
15. Jacksonville - 1-7
16. NY Jets - 0-9 - Eliminated from AFC East contention

No Clinching or Elimination Scenarios (alas, the Jets don't play this week)

The following teams control their own destiny for a divisional title:: PIT, KC, BUF, TEN, IND
- Baltimore gains control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a win and a PIT loss
- Miami gains control of their own destiny in the AFC East with a win and a BUF loss
- Indianapolis gains control of their own destiny in the AFC South with a win

The following teams control their own destiny for at least a playoff spot: PIT, KC, BUF, TEN, BAL, LV, MIA, CLE, IND
-Miami loses control of their own destiny for a WC spot with a loss, CLE win, LV win, and a PIT OR BUF win
- Cleveland loses control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a loss, either a MIA win or a LV win, AND either a PIT or BUF win
-Indianapolis loses control of their own destiny with a loss combined with (1) a CLE win, (2)a LV and MIA win, or (3)a BAL, MIA, and PIT win

 

[VEGASKING]

The unexpected road win in KC and beating the Browns on the road put the Raiders in a great position after a brutal first half schedule. 5 home games remaining including against Indy and Miami. I fully expect them to blow it against the Jets or Falcons and one of the games against the Broncos or Chargers. I don't expect a sweep of KC so that would be a 6th loss. I don't think 9-7 is going to get a wild card spot for anyone this year. I wasn't expecting a 10 win season so if they get there and make the playoffs that'd be a good first year in Vegas. Too bad none of us got to witness it in person.

 

[StreetHawk]

The unexpected road win in KC and beating the Browns on the road put the Raiders in a great position after a brutal first half schedule. 5 home games remaining including against Indy and Miami. I fully expect them to blow it against the Jets or Falcons and one of the games against the Broncos or Chargers. I don't expect a sweep of KC so that would be a 6th loss. I don't think 9-7 is going to get a wild card spot for anyone this year. I wasn't expecting a 10 win season so if they get there and make the playoffs that'd be a good first year in Vegas. Too bad none of us got to witness it in person.

Raiders have a better chance of sweeping the Broncos than they do the Chargers. Herbert has look excellent and has weapons. But LAC just find a way to lose games late.

Raiders need to take down Den/LAC/Den/Jets/Falcons. Get 4 of those and they are 9-4. Lose to KC gets them to 9-5. If they can split Indy/Miami they get to 10-6 and a WC. If they can't beat one of Indy or Miami with their playoff lives on the line, then they don't deserve to be a playoff team. If they sweep Den and LAC, and take care of the Jets and rising Falcons, then those 2 games won't mean that much.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

We've got 6 teams at 6-3!

Division leaders
1. PIT 9-0
2. KC 8-1
3. BUF 7-3
4. IND 6-3

Wild Card teams
5. LV 6-3
6. MIA 6-3
7. BAL 6-3

IN THE HUNT
CLE 6-3
TEN 6-3

TEN @ BAL next week is gargantuan. The loser will be in trouble.

If the Raiders can somehow beat the Chiefs on SNF, they'll be 1 game back with the tie-break.

 

[StreetHawk]

We've got 6 teams at 6-3!

Division leaders
1. PIT 9-0
2. KC 8-1
3. BUF 7-3
4. IND 6-3

Wild Card teams
5. LV 6-3
6. MIA 6-3
7. BAL 6-3

IN THE HUNT
CLE 6-3
TEN 6-3

TEN @ BAL next week is gargantuan. The loser will be in trouble.

If the Raiders can somehow beat the Chiefs on SNF, they'll be 1 game back with the tie-break.

Raiders are in good shape. Still have very winnable games vs Jets/Falcons/Chargers/Broncos along with KC and the 2 head to head vs other WC contending teams in Colts and Dolphins. Sweeping KC would be huge. KC needs to win to keep pace with Pitt for a shot at the only Bye in the AFC

 

[Fenway]

WBZ-TV in Boston is owned by CBS which in turn has a major relationship with the Kraft family's mall next to the stadium

CBS Sporting Club | Patriot Place, Foxborough, MA

That said this was pathetic to watch and I am a Pats fan



Networks make their money on local advertising and 5 years ago FOX traded the station they owned in Boston for one in San Francisco because they would make more money with the 49ers than the Patriots.

The Patriots at 4-5 should be out of it BUT

Rank	Designated Market Area (DMA)	TV Homes	% of US
1	New York FOX CBS	6,824,120	6.377
2	Los Angeles FOX CBS	5,145,350	4.808
3	Chicago FOX	3,256,400	3.043
4	Philadelphia FOX	2,758,330	2.578
5	Dallas-Ft. Worth FOX	2,563,320	2.395
6	San Francisco-Oak-San Jose FOX	2,364,740	2.210
7	Washington, DC (Hagerstown) FOX	2,351,930	2.198
8	Houston CBS	2,330,180	2.178
9	Boston (Manchester) CBS	2,302,680	2.152
10	Atlanta FOX	2,269,270	2.121
11	Phoenix (Prescott) FOX	1,879,780	1.757
12	Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) FOX	1,800,600	1.683
13	Seattle-Tacoma FOX	1,764,680	1.649
14	Detroit FOX	1,737,170	1.623
15	Minneapolis-St. Paul FOX	1,697,370	1.586
16	Miami-Ft. Lauderdale CBS	1,642,220	1.535
17	Denver CBS	1,532,320	1.432

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Scandale du Jour]

WBZ-TV in Boston is owned by CBS which in turn has a major relationship with the Kraft family's mall next to the stadium

CBS Sporting Club | Patriot Place, Foxborough, MA

That said this was pathetic to watch and I am a Pats fan



Networks make their money on local advertising and 5 years ago FOX traded the station they owned in Boston for one in San Francisco because they would make more money with the 49ers than the Patriots.

The Patriots at 4-5 should be out of it BUT

Rank	Designated Market Area (DMA)	TV Homes	% of US
1	New York FOX CBS	6,824,120	6.377
2	Los Angeles FOX CBS	5,145,350	4.808
3	Chicago FOX	3,256,400	3.043
4	Philadelphia FOX	2,758,330	2.578
5	Dallas-Ft. Worth FOX	2,563,320	2.395
6	San Francisco-Oak-San Jose FOX	2,364,740	2.210
7	Washington, DC (Hagerstown) FOX	2,351,930	2.198
8	Houston CBS	2,330,180	2.178
9	Boston (Manchester) CBS	2,302,680	2.152
10	Atlanta FOX	2,269,270	2.121
11	Phoenix (Prescott) FOX	1,879,780	1.757
12	Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) FOX	1,800,600	1.683
13	Seattle-Tacoma FOX	1,764,680	1.649
14	Detroit FOX	1,737,170	1.623
15	Minneapolis-St. Paul FOX	1,697,370	1.586
16	Miami-Ft. Lauderdale CBS	1,642,220	1.535
17	Denver CBS	1,532,320	1.432

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Come on, we are running the table and you know it

 

[misterchainsaw]

It would be insane if a 10-6 team missed the playoffs in the first year of 7 teams in. Also I'm still hurting over the ending of yesterday's game.

AFTER WEEK 10
1. Pittsburgh - 9-0
2. Kansas City - 8-1
3. Buffalo - 7-3
4. Indianapolis - 6-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over TEN)
5. Las Vegas - 6-3 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over MIA, BAL, and TEN)
6. Miami - 6-3 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over BAL and TEN)
7. Baltimore - 6-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over CLE and Common Opponents tiebreaker over TEN)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Cleveland - 6-3 (Holds Common Opponents tiebreaker over TEN)
9. Tennessee - 6-3
10. New England - 4-5
11. Denver - 3-6
12. Cincinnati - 2-6-1
13. Los Angeles - 2-7 (Holds Conference record tiebreaker over HOU)
14. Houston - 2-7
15. Jacksonville - 1-8
16. NY Jets - 0-9 (Eliminated from contention in the AFC East)

No clinching scenarios

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS
- The NY Jets are eliminated from the playoffs with a loss.
- Jacksonville is eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss, TEN win, and IND win.

The following teams control their own destiny for a division title:: PIT, KC, BUF, IND, MIA, TEN
- Miami loses control of their own destiny for the AFC East title with a loss.

The following teams control their own destiny for a playoff spot:: PIT, KC, BUF, IND, LV, MIA, BAL, CLE, TEN
- Cleveland loses control of their own destiny with a loss, BAL win, and if 2 of PIT, MIA, and LV win.
- New England gains control of their own destiny with a win, CLE loss, and either (1)a BAL and IND loss or (2) a TEN, LV, and PIT loss

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Hard to believe a 10-6 team would miss with 7 of 16 getting in, but looking at the schedules of all the teams in contention it is actually quite possible. Every one of those teams has a reasonable path to 10 wins, even knowing that they all might hand each other a couple losses. Given how sports tend to work, expect Cleveland to be the 10-6 team that misses the playoffs.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

It may not just be 1 team missing out at 10-6. It could be a pair of 10-6 teams missing.

All these 6 win teams have at least 3 extremely winnable games left and a lot of them play each other.

 

[PanthersPens62]

Assuming The Dolphins lose in Buffalo in week 17, that week 16 matchup with LV in LV will likely determine the Dolphins playoff fate (I still have them finishing 10-6). It is imperative that they win these next 3 (at Den At Jets home vs Bengals) to give themselves some breathing room. Remaining schedule:

at Broncos
at Jets
Bengals
Chiefs
Pats
at Raiders
at Bills

I see losses to Chiefs, Raiders, Bills with the hope that the Raiders loss will not cause them to be a 10-6 team on the outside looking in.

 

[StreetHawk]

Assuming The Dolphins lose in Buffalo in week 17, that week 16 matchup with LV in LV will likely determine the Dolphins playoff fate (I still have them finishing 10-6). It is imperative that they win these next 3 (at Den At Jets home vs Bengals) to give themselves some breathing room. Remaining schedule:

at Broncos
at Jets
Bengals
Chiefs
Pats
at Raiders
at Bills

I see losses to Chiefs, Raiders, Bills with the hope that the Raiders loss will not cause them to be a 10-6 team on the outside looking in.

First tie breaker is head to head if it’s just them and LV. But if it is a 3 way tie then it goes to common opponents between them.

can say the same thing for the raiders. Have the Jets, chargers, Broncos, Falcons. If they take care of these teams they get to 10 wins. Host KC this Sunday night and have games vs Indy and Miami. If they can beat who they are supposed to beat and split Indy and Miami they can get to 11-5 assuming they lose to KC.

 

[John Price]

 

[Blitzkrug]

Assuming The Dolphins lose in Buffalo in week 17, that week 16 matchup with LV in LV will likely determine the Dolphins playoff fate (I still have them finishing 10-6). It is imperative that they win these next 3 (at Den At Jets home vs Bengals) to give themselves some breathing room. Remaining schedule:

at Broncos
at Jets
Bengals
Chiefs
Pats
at Raiders
at Bills

I see losses to Chiefs, Raiders, Bills with the hope that the Raiders loss will not cause them to be a 10-6 team on the outside looking in.

That Denver loss today hurts big time. If both the Raiders and Colts (already did) come out with Ws this week that puts them behind the eight ball. They would need to either;

1) Beat the Raiders and Colts (they absolutely need to) and then at minimum finish with the same record as they do

2) Hope whoever loses the Raiders/Colts game later in the year falls off the map

3) Hope Baltimore falls apart enough where you can just steal their spot.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

The Dolphins don't play the Colts. They will likely have to beat KC or BUF now though.

 

[Shockmaster]

What's the magic number for the Steelers to clinch?

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

What's the magic number for the Steelers to clinch?

To clinch a playoff spot, it's 3. To clinch the division, it's 4.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Raiders currently hold the tie-breaker for the 3rd WC due to a better Conference record than BAL and MIA.

 

[StreetHawk]

Raiders have the Falcons and Jets on deck so they need to take care of business. KC was going to be tough. But they have 4 winnable games if you include Denver and the chargers. Take care of that and they can get to 10 wins.

 

[PanthersPens62]

I will rage if a 10-6 Dolphins team misses the playoffs in a year when 7 teams make the playoffs. But their conference record will be an issue if they finish 10-6 as they would finish 7-5 in the AFC. Bottom line, they absolutely MUST win their next 2 games against the pathetic Jets & a Burrow-less Bungles team. Lose either of them & they don't even deserve a playoff spot. The Raiders game is now an absolute must win as well as they will need some sort of head to head advantage in a tie break situation. Assuming they can beat the Pats at home, I agree with what Marc said, they are going to need to steal 1 from either KC or Buffalo.

Bottom line, as a Dolphins fan I have to focus on the fact that they are ahead of schedule. Hardly anyone realistically expected them to compete for a playoff spot this year. And it was so much easier when I was emotionally detached from them the past few years!