NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[misterchainsaw]

We're likely to lose a chunk of teams from contention this week, and four AFC teams have clinching scenarios, although only two at a time can come to fruition, since Baltimore plays Buffalo and Kansas City plays New England...as always, this is not taking into account ties.

ENTERING WEEK 14:
1. Baltimore 10-2 (Owns H2H tiebreaker vs New England)
2. New England 10-2
3. Houston 8-4 (Owns H2H tiebreaker vs Kansas City)
4. Kansas City 8-4
-----------------------------------------------------
5. Buffalo 9-3
6. Pittsburgh 7-5 (Leads conference record tiebreaker vs. TEN)
___________________________________________
7. Tennessee 7-5
8. Oakland 6-6 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over IND)
9. Indianapolis 6-6
10. Cleveland 5-7
11. Jacksonville 4-8 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over DEN and NYJ)
12. Denver 4-8 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over LAC inside the division, Owns conference record tiebreaker over NYJ)
13. LA Chargers 4-8 (Leads conference record tiebreaker over NYJ)
14. NY Jets 4-8
ELIMINATED: Miami (3-9), Cincinnati (1-11)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Baltimore will clinch the AFC North with a win and a Pittsburgh loss
- Kansas City will clinch the AFC West with a win and an Oakland loss
- Baltimore will clinch a wild card spot with a win
- New England will clinch a wild card spot with a win
- Buffalo will clinch a wild card spot with a win, HOU loss, OAK loss, and IND loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- NY Jets are eliminated with a loss
- NY Jets are eliminated with a Pittsburgh win and a Tennessee win
- LA Chargers are eliminated with a loss
- LA Chargers are eliminated with a Pittsburgh win
- Jacksonville is eliminated with a loss
- Jacksonville is eliminated with a Tennessee win
- Denver is eliminated with a loss and a Pittsburgh win
- Denver is eliminated with a loss and a Tennessee win

Teams that control their own destiny for the #1 seed: Baltimore
Teams that control their own destiny for a first round bye: New England
Teams that control their own destiny for a division title: Houston, Kansas City, Tennessee
Teams that control their own destiny for a wild card spot: Buffalo, Pittsburgh

 

[Canada4Gold]

Here's what I have this week for scenarios. Even with ties it's more simple than usual

NYJ Eliminated:
- NYJ Loss
- NYJ Tie + PIT Win
- NYJ Tie + TEN Win/Tie
- PIT Win + TEN Win

DEN Eliminated :
- DEN Loss + PIT Win/Tie
- DEN Loss + TEN Win/Tie
- DEN Tie + PIT Win
- DEN Tie + TEN Win

LAC Eliminated:
- LAC Loss
- LAC Tie + PIT Tie
- LAC Tie + TEN Win
- PIT Win

JAC Eliminated:
- JAC Loss
- JAC Tie + PIT Win
- JAC Tie + TEN Tie
- TEN Win

BAL Clinch Division :
- BAL Win + PIT Loss/Tie
- BAL Tie + PIT Loss

BAL Clinch Playoff Spot :
- BAL Win
- BAL Tie + HOU Loss/Tie
- BAL Tie + TEN Loss/Tie
- OAK Tie + HOU Loss + IND Loss/Tie

BUF Clinch Playoff Spot:
- BUF Win + OAK Loss/Tie + HOU Loss + IND Loss/Tie

NE Clinch Playoff Spot:
- NE Win
- NE Tie + PIT Loss
- NE Tie + HOU Loss/Tie
- NE Tie + TEN Loss/Tie
- OAK Tie + HOU loss + IND Loss/Tie

KC Clinch Division:
- KC Win + OAK Loss

We're likely to lose a chunk of teams from contention this week, and four AFC teams have clinching scenarios, although only two at a time can come to fruition, since Baltimore plays Buffalo and Kansas City plays New England...as always, this is not taking into account ties.

ENTERING WEEK 14:
1. Baltimore 10-2 (Owns H2H tiebreaker vs New England)
2. New England 10-2
3. Houston 8-4 (Owns H2H tiebreaker vs Kansas City)
4. Kansas City 8-4
-----------------------------------------------------
5. Buffalo 9-3
6. Pittsburgh 7-5 (Leads conference record tiebreaker vs. TEN)
___________________________________________
7. Tennessee 7-5
8. Oakland 6-6 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over IND)
9. Indianapolis 6-6
10. Cleveland 5-7
11. Jacksonville 4-8 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over DEN and NYJ)
12. Denver 4-8 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over LAC inside the division, Owns conference record tiebreaker over NYJ)
13. LA Chargers 4-8 (Leads conference record tiebreaker over NYJ)
14. NY Jets 4-8
ELIMINATED: Miami (3-9), Cincinnati (1-11)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Baltimore will clinch the AFC North with a win and a Pittsburgh loss
- Kansas City will clinch the AFC West with a win and an Oakland loss
- Baltimore will clinch a wild card spot with a win
- New England will clinch a wild card spot with a win
- Buffalo will clinch a wild card spot with a win, HOU loss, OAK loss, and IND loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- NY Jets are eliminated with a loss
- NY Jets are eliminated with a Pittsburgh win
- LA Chargers are eliminated with a loss
- LA Chargers are eliminated with a Pittsburgh win
- Jacksonville is eliminated with a loss
- Jacksonville is eliminated with a Tennessee win
- Denver is eliminated with a loss and a Pittsburgh win
- Denver is eliminated with a loss and a Tennessee win

Teams that control their own destiny for the #1 seed: Baltimore
Teams that control their own destiny for a first round bye: New England
Teams that control their own destiny for a division title: Houston, Kansas City, Tennessee
Teams that control their own destiny for a wild card spot: Buffalo, Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh win alone doesn't eliminate the Jets as they could beat the Steelers to have the h2h. Need a PIT win and a TEN win to force TEN(or another south team) to block the h2h.

NFL Playoff Predictor - 2019 - 2020 NFL Season - Playoff Predictors

 

[misterchainsaw]

Pittsburgh win alone doesn't eliminate the Jets as they could beat the Steelers to have the h2h. Need a PIT win and a TEN win to force TEN(or another south team) to block the h2h.

NFL Playoff Predictor - 2019 - 2020 NFL Season - Playoff Predictors

Yeesh, dunno what I was thinking there. I know I got a mess of 7-9 teams in the NYJ loses case and realized that the Jets couldn't get past the Steelers at 7-9 (because there would be so many other teams at that same record - including at least one AFC South team that the Jets would not have beaten) but for some reason mentally pushed that out to the 8-8 tiebreak, even though no one else has to get to 8-8 unless Tennessee wins...

 

[TheAngryHank]

A buffalo win coupled with a KC win would put Buffalo in control of the AFC?

 

[misterchainsaw]

A buffalo win coupled with a KC win would put Buffalo in control of the AFC?

Depends on what you mean. Technically New England would continue to lead the AFC East and would stay at #2 overall. However, Buffalo would be the only team in the conference to control their own destiny for the #1 seed (New England would still be at the mercy of Baltimore, and Baltimore would be at the mercy of Buffalo).

New England would also continue to control their own destiny for the AFC East crown - I suspect people would say New England was still in control in the AFC East because they have home field advantage for the upcoming BUF-NE game (and technically would still lead the division)

 

[TheAngryHank]

Depends on what you mean. Technically New England would continue to lead the AFC East and would stay at #2 overall. However, Buffalo would be the only team in the conference to control their own destiny for the #1 seed (New England would still be at the mercy of Baltimore, and Baltimore would be at the mercy of Buffalo).

New England would also continue to control their own destiny for the AFC East crown - I suspect people would say New England was still in control in the AFC East because they have home field advantage for the upcoming BUF-NE game (and technically would still lead the division)

Makes me giddy to think about.

 

[MMC]

Ravens clinch

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Tomlin gets a ton of heat and deservingly so, but this is his best coaching job since he came to Pittsburgh and deserves a ton of credit. even if the Steelers miss the playoffs

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

UPDATED:

1. x-BAL 11-2 (owns H2H tie-breaker over NE so basically it's a 2 game lead)
2. NE 10-3
3. z-KC 9-4 (clinched division)
4. HOU 8-5 (ahead of TEN due to 3-1 divisional record vs 2-2)
--------------------
5. BUF 9-4 (They beat TEN so that is a huge tie-breaker potentially)
6. PIT 8-5
--------------------
7. TEN 8-5
8. CLE 6-7
9. OAK 6-7
10. IND 6-7

 

[Trap Jesus]

4. HOU 8-5 (ahead of TEN due to 3-1 divisional record vs 2-2)
--------------------
5. BUF 9-4 (They beat TEN so that is a huge tie-breaker potentially)
6. PIT 8-5
--------------------
7. TEN 8-5

Huge for the Steelers that the Titans/Texans play each other twice.

 

[Canada4Gold]

This is what I have for the coming week. Not yet 100% confirmed. Some weirdly simple ones and then there's Oakland who's half a result away from not being able to beat TEN in SOV which adds a bunch of scenarios there.

BAL Clinches Division with:
- BAL Win/Tie
- PIT Loss/Tie

BAL Clinches Bye with:
- BAL Win + NE Loss
- BAL Win + KC Loss/Tie
- BAL Tie + KC Loss

BAL Clinches Home Field with:
- BAL Win + NE Loss + KC Loss/Tie

NE Clinches Playoff Spot with:
- NE Win/Tie

BUF Clinches Playoff Spot with:
- BUF Win

DEN Eliminated from Playoffs with:
- DEN Loss/Tie
- PIT Win/Tie
- HOU Tie

IND Eliminated from Playoffs with:
- IND Loss
- IND Tie + PIT Win/Tie

CLE Eliminated from Playoffs with:
- CLE Loss + PIT Win/Tie
- CLE Loss + HOU Tie
- CLE Tie + PIT Win

OAK Eliminated from Playoffs with:
- OAK Loss + PIT Win/Tie
- OAK Loss + HOU Tie
- OAK Tie + PIT Win
- OAK Tie + HOU Tie + IND Loss + KC Win/Tie
- OAK Tie + HOU Tie + IND Loss + TB Win/Tie
- OAK Tie + HOU Tie + IND Loss + GB Win/Tie
- OAK Tie + HOU Tie + IND Loss + MIN Win/Tie
- OAK Tie + HOU Tie + IND Loss + NE Win/Tie
- OAK Tie + HOU Tie + IND Loss + CLE Win/Tie
- OAK Tie + HOU Tie + IND Loss + ATL Win/Tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

Yeah, fairly simply week, especially if you exclude ties. And, as always, this list excludes the possibilty of ties. (x-Clinched playoff spot, y-Clinched division, z-Clinched bye, *-Clinched #1 seed)

Entering Week 15:
1. x-Baltimore 11-2
2. New England 10-3
3. y-Kansas City 9-4
4. Houston 8-5
-------------------------------------
5. Buffalo 9-4
6. Pittsburgh 8-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Tennessee)
__________________________________
7. Tennessee 8-5
8. Cleveland 6-7 (Owns conference record tiebreaker over Oakland, Holds conference record tiebreaker over Indianapolis)
9. Oakland 6-7 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over Indianapolis)
10. Indianapolis 6-7
11. Denver 5-8 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over LA Chargers, Owns conference record tiebreaker over NY Jets)
ELIMINATED: LA Chargers (5-8), NY Jets (5-8), Jacksonville (4-9), Miami (3-10), Cincinnati (1-12)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Baltimore clinches #1 seed with a win, NE loss, and KC loss
- Baltimore clinches a 1st round bye with a win and a NE loss
- Baltimore clinches a 1st round bye with a win and a KC loss
- Baltimore clinches the AFC North with a win or a PIT loss
- New England clinches a playoff birth with a win
- Buffalo clinches a playoff birth with a win

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS
- Denver is eliminated with a loss
- Denver is eliminated with a Pittsburgh win
- Indianapolis is eliminated with a loss
- Oakland is eliminated with a loss and a Pittsburgh win
- Cleveland is eliminated with a loss and a Pittsburgh win

Teams that control their own destiny for the #1 seed: Baltimore
Teams that control their own destiny for a 1st round bye: New England
Teams that control their own destiny for their division: Kansas City* (already clinched), Houston, Tennessee
Teams that control their own destiny for a wild card: Buffalo, Pittsburgh

 

[misterchainsaw]

Oakland and Cleveland technically stay alive, but we're essentially 4 teams for 3 spots now between HOU, TEN, IND, and PIT.

 

[IceColdOx]

Go ahead and put that X next to Buffalo.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Go ahead and put that X next to Buffalo.

With pleasure.

They actually clinched nothing worse than the 5 seed.

This is a little early, but Indy is all but out and has very easy scenarios despite the extra game, so I'll update this post tomorrow after tonight's game for the final scenarios. As always, this exercise excludes ties. (x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched division, z-clinched bye, *-clinched home field advantage )

ENTERING WEEK 16:
1. y-Baltimore - 12-2
2. x-New England - 11-3
3. y-Kansas City - 10-4
4. Houston - 9-5
--------------------------------------
5. x-Buffalo - 10-4
6. Pittsburgh 8-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Tennessee)
________________________
7. Tennessee - 8-6
8. Cleveland - 6-8 (Owns conference record tiebreaker over Oakland and Indianapolis)
9. Oakland - 6-8 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over Indianapolis
ELIMINATED: Indianapolis (6-8), Denver (5-9), LA Chargers (5-9), NY Jets (5-9), Jacksonville (5-9), Miami (3-11), Cincinnati (1-13)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Baltimore clinches home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win
- Baltimore clinches home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a New England loss and a Kansas City loss
- Baltimore clinches a bye with a Kansas City loss
- Baltimore clinches a bye with a New England loss
- New England clinches a bye with a win and a Kansas City loss
- New England clinches the AFC East with a win
- Houston clinches the AFC South with a win
- Houston clinches the AFC South with a Tennessee loss
- Houston clinches a playoff spot with a Pittsburgh loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Oakland is eliminated with a loss
- Oakland is eliminated with a Pittsburgh win
- Oakland is eliminated with a Tennessee win
- Oakland is eliminated with an Indianapolis loss
- Cleveland is eliminated with a loss
- Cleveland is eliminated with a Pittsburgh win
- Cleveland is eliminated with a Tennessee win
- Cleveland is eliminated with an Indianapolis loss


TEAMS THAT CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY FOR HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE: Baltimore
TEAMS THAT CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY FOR A BYE: New England
TEAMS THAT CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY FOR THE DIVISION: Houston, Kansas City*(already clinched)
TEAMS THAT CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY FOR A WILD CARD: Buffalo*(already clinched), Pittsburgh

 

[Canada4Gold]

Here's what I have for this week on a quick glance, I've been busy. The 2 SOV clinches I'm not even sure if they apply I haven't gotten a chance to check. Looks like the TEN one is almost certainly already clinched, the PIT one may be possible not sure. Will fix when I get through it

OAK Eliminated from Playoffs with:
- OAK Loss/Tie
- PIT Win/Tie
- TEN Win/Tie
- IND Loss/Tie + TEN Clinches SOV over OAK
- PIT Clinches SOV over OAK

CLE Eliminated from Playoffs with:
- CLE Loss/Tie
- PIT Win/Tie
- TEN Win/Tie
- IND Loss/Tie

HOU Clinches Division with:
- HOU Win
- HOU Tie + TEN Tie
- TEN Loss

HOU Clinches Playoff spot with:
- HOU Tie + PIT Tie
- PIT Loss

NE Clinches Division with:
- NE Win/Tie

NE Clinches Bye with:
- NE Win + KC Loss/Tie
- NE Tie + KC Loss

BAL Clinches Bye with:
- BAL Win/Tie
- KC Loss/Tie
- NE Loss

BAL Clinches Home Field Advantage with:
- BAL Win
- BAL Tie + NE Loss/Tie
- NE Loss + KC Loss/Tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

Tennessee's SOV is indeed clinched over Oakland, by a large mardgin - OAK and TEN have 6 distinct wins, Oakland's wins can only get to 34.5 wins, while TEN's wins must hit at least 43. I really gotta stop doing these ahead of time - I didn't look at multiple Indy losses (last night and this week) as it pertains to them dropping out of the tiebreakers with Oakland. Cleveland seems more insulated thanks to conference record, but Tennessee has beaten both Oakland and Cleveland and thus Indy leapfrogging Tennessee is needed in that tiebreaker too for Cleveland to get in.

Pittsburgh cannot clinch SOV over Oakland this week - I have them coming up 3 wins short among 5 distinct victories in the best case scenario for them. Oakland certainly could clinch SOV against Pittsburgh and not have to worry about that particular piece of the puzzle coming into next week - they obviously still need a whole crap ton of things to go right to get in.

EDIT: And holy crap I don't know what I was thinking with Baltimore's clinching scenarios lol.

 

[Habsawce]

A buffalo win coupled with a KC win would put Buffalo in control of the AFC?

If Buffalo and KC win out, KC is the #2 seed. Both have same inter conference record but KC beat Baltimore and New England and Buffalo did not. Buffalo did beat TEN but that would be 3-1 KC and 2-2 for BUF in common games (min of 4).

 

[misterchainsaw]

If Buffalo and KC win out, KC is the #2 seed. Both have same inter conference record but KC beat Baltimore and New England and Buffalo did not. Buffalo did beat TEN but that would be 3-1 KC and 2-2 for BUF in common games (min of 4).

You're responding to a post that was from before the Bills lost to Baltimore. At that point the Bills would have had a better record than KC (and New England, once KC beat them) if both teams won out. Now, yes, KC would have a 4-1 to 3-2 advantage in common games should they end up tied at 12-4 (of course, NE also has to lose to MIA for this tiebreaker to even come into play)

 

[Habsawce]

You're responding to a post that was from before the Bills lost to Baltimore. At that point the Bills would have had a better record than KC (and New England, once KC beat them) if both teams won out. Now, yes, KC would have a 4-1 to 3-2 advantage in common games should they end up tied at 12-4 (of course, NE also has to lose to MIA for this tiebreaker to even come into play)

Didn't realize how old the post was, my bad.

 

[Voight]

Pats & Houston clinched their division titles today.

 

[GKJ]

With Houston winning, today’s game between the Titans and Saints means nothing to the Titans. But they still have to try to win next week even though Houston already won the division.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

There is apparently a scenario where if it's a 3-way 8-8 tie with the Steelers, Titans and Colts, the Titans are screwed as the Colts finish ahead of them in the division and the Steelers go to the playoffs as a result. And when you look at who these 3 teams are playing, this very specific scenario can't be completely discounted.

 

[GKJ]

There is apparently a scenario where if it's a 3-way 8-8 tie with the Steelers, Titans and Colts, the Titans are screwed as the Colts finish ahead of them in the division and the Steelers go to the playoffs as a result. And when you look at who these 3 teams are playing, this very specific scenario can't be completely discounted.

I like chaos. The Titans don’t win any tie breaker against just the Steelers right?

 

[N o o d l e s]

With Houston winning, today’s game between the Titans and Saints means nothing to the Titans. But they still have to try to win next week even though Houston already won the division.

They can still get a wild card, no?