NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[Canada4Gold]

1. (h)BAL 13-2
2. (y)NE 12-3
3. (y)KC 11-4
4. (y)HOU 10-5
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5. (x)BUF 10-5
6. TEN 8-7
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7. PIT 8-7
8. OAK 7-8
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9. IND 7-8
10. CLE 6-9
11. DEN 6-9
12. NYJ 6-9
13. LAC 5-10
14. JAC 5-10
15. MIA 4-11
16. CIN 1-14

(x)Clinched Playoff Spot
(y)Clinched Division
(z)Clinched Bye
(h)Clinched Home Field Advantage

Week 17 Scenarios:

Accurate Playoff Machine: NFL Playoff Predictor - 2019 - 2020 NFL Season - Playoff Predictors

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[Canada4Gold]

We have our first playoff elimination scenario next week. Cincinnati has already been eliminated from their division but I don't usually keep track of those unless it affects playoff eliminations. We might get a scenario in the NFC as well with Washington WC elimination. Seattle winning tomorrow night would help make that more likely I think.

CIN Eliminated from Playoffs:
- CIN Loss + BUF Win/Tie
- CIN Loss + PIT Win/Tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

In terms of who controls their own destiny:

New England is now the only team who controls their own destiny for the #1 seed
Baltimore and Houston both control their own destiny for a 1st round bye
Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Oakland control their own destiny for a division title
Buffalo and Pittsburgh control their own destiny for a wild card.

In addition, I seem to be getting a CIN Loss + DEN Win/Tie eliminates Cincinnati. We know two AFC South teams will finish with >6 wins due to divisional matchups. The Broncos winning or tying this week also guarantees that either the Bills or the 2nd place AFC West team will finish with 6.5 wins (6 wins and a tie) or more. (thanks to a lot of divisional games and the Bills playing the Broncos in week 12). I guess I can't 100% guarantee it, but I can't seem to come up with a scenario where Cincinnati gets in if Denver wins or ties this week. They need Denver to beat Buffalo next week and to beat a couple of AFC West/South teams after that.

 

[Canada4Gold]

In terms of who controls their own destiny:

New England is now the only team who controls their own destiny for the #1 seed
Baltimore and Houston both control their own destiny for a 1st round bye
Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Oakland control their own destiny for a division title
Buffalo and Pittsburgh control their own destiny for a wild card.

In addition, I seem to be getting a CIN Loss + DEN Win/Tie eliminates Cincinnati. We know two AFC South teams will finish with >6 wins due to divisional matchups. The Broncos winning or tying this week also guarantees that either the Bills or the 2nd place AFC West team will finish with 6.5 wins (6 wins and a tie) or more. (thanks to a lot of divisional games and the Bills playing the Broncos in week 12). I guess I can't 100% guarantee it, but I can't seem to come up with a scenario where Cincinnati gets in if Denver wins or ties this week. They need Denver to beat Buffalo next week and to beat a couple of AFC West/South teams after that.

2 South teams don’t have to get to 6.5 or more wins. You can get JAX, IND, and TEN all at 6. However 3 South/West teams or Buffalo have to due to future h2h games(taking 1 WC spot). If you make those 3 HOU, OAK, KC you can get everyone else at 6 or less even if DEN and LAC both win this week. It involves using MIA with a 6-6 conference record to block the JAX h2h over CIN. Cincinnati can still win that 3 way on SOV(with the West team dropping out on inferior conference record)

NFL Playoff Predictor - 2019 - 2020 NFL Season - Playoff Predictors

 

[misterchainsaw]

2 South teams don’t have to get to 6.5 or more wins. You can get JAX, IND, and TEN all at 6. However 3 South/West teams or Buffalo have to due to future h2h games(taking 1 WC spot). If you make those 3 HOU, OAK, KC you can get everyone else at 6 or less even if DEN and LAC both win this week. It involves using MIA with a 6-6 conference record to block the JAX h2h over CIN. Cincinnati can still win that 3 way on SOV(with the West team dropping out on inferior conference record)

NFL Playoff Predictor - 2019 - 2020 NFL Season - Playoff Predictors

Ah that was the problem, I was trying to force the AFC West 2nd place team to 6 or less wins and I couldn't get there without getting Buffalo and an AFC South team over 6. It's too early for this shit

 

[Canada4Gold]

Cincinnati the first team to officially be eliminated from the playoffs

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Its nice to see Raiders in playoff fight

 

[Canada4Gold]

Doesn't look like anyone can clinch or be eliminated next week regardless of the outcome between KC/LAC tomorrow night. Miami was close to an elimination scenario, but I can manage to get them in even in a worst case scenario next week.

 

[StreetHawk]

In the West, it's KC and the OAK still in it.
In the South, IND and HOU still in it
In the East, NE should get a bye, and BUF is in the mix
In the North, BAL should get a bye. PIT/CLE can't afford anymore losses. 10-6 should be the bar to make the playoffs as a WC.

Raiders are 6-4, still have Jets, Broncos, Jags, Chargers, Chiefs, & Titans (Have to beat 4 of Jets, Den, LAC, Jags, Titans to make the WC. Need to beat KC to have a shot at the division, which I don't think they can win) Go 4-2 and they should get in.
Bills are 7-3, still have Broncos, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, Patriots, Jets. (Have to beat Den & Jets. Split Dallas/Pitt and that gets them to 10 wins). Go 3-3 and they should get in.

Indy/Houston both 6-4.
Indy has Hou, Ten, TB, NO, CAR, Jax
Hou has Ind, NE, Den, Ten, TB, Ten
head to head should decide the division. For the team that loses on thursday night, they can still afford a loss to their toughest remaining opponent, either NO or NE to get to 10-6. Then comes down to tie breakers in a 3 way situation. If it's a head to head with OAK, if Buffalo wins 11 games, then Indy loses the head to head while Houston wins it against OAK. So, OAK hoping for a Houston win on Thursday.

Pit (4-6) have Bengals, Browns, Cardinals, Bills, Jets, Ravens.
CLE (4-6) have Dolphins, Steelers, Bengals, Cardinals, Ravens, Bengals.
With a head to head left, one of them is going to end up with 7 losses. Both have the Ravens as their toughest opponent left. Next toughest for Pitt would be Buff, while for CLE would be Cardinals.

 

[Dr Pepper]

In the West, it's KC and the OAK still in it.
In the South, IND and HOU still in it
In the East, NE should get a bye, and BUF is in the mix
In the North, BAL should get a bye. PIT/CLE can't afford anymore losses. 10-6 should be the bar to make the playoffs as a WC.

Raiders are 6-4, still have Jets, Broncos, Jags, Chargers, Chiefs, & Titans (Have to beat 4 of Jets, Den, LAC, Jags, Titans to make the WC. Need to beat KC to have a shot at the division, which I don't think they can win) Go 4-2 and they should get in.
Bills are 7-3, still have Broncos, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, Patriots, Jets. (Have to beat Den & Jets. Split Dallas/Pitt and that gets them to 10 wins). Go 3-3 and they should get in.

Indy/Houston both 6-4.
Indy has Hou, Ten, TB, NO, CAR, Jax
Hou has Ind, NE, Den, Ten, TB, Ten
head to head should decide the division. For the team that loses on thursday night, they can still afford a loss to their toughest remaining opponent, either NO or NE to get to 10-6. Then comes down to tie breakers in a 3 way situation. If it's a head to head with OAK, if Buffalo wins 11 games, then Indy loses the head to head while Houston wins it against OAK. So, OAK hoping for a Houston win on Thursday.

Pit (4-6) have Bengals, Browns, Cardinals, Bills, Jets, Ravens.
CLE (4-6) have Dolphins, Steelers, Bengals, Cardinals, Ravens, Bengals.
With a head to head left, one of them is going to end up with 7 losses. Both have the Ravens as their toughest opponent left. Next toughest for Pitt would be Buff, while for CLE would be Cardinals.

I'd say it's a pretty safe bet BOTH teams end up with at least seven losses.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Steelers are 5-5 not 4-6

 

[misterchainsaw]

ENTERING WEEK 12:
1. New England - 9-1
2. Baltimore - 8-2
3. Kansas City - 7-4
4. Indianapolis - 6-4 (Owns head to head tiebreaker for division over Houston)
--------------------------------------------------------
5. Buffalo 7-3
6. Houston 6-4 (Owns head to head tiebreaker over Oakland)
_________________________________
7. Oakland 6-4
8. Pittsburgh 5-5 (Owns conference record tiebreaker over Tennessee)
9. Tennessee 5-5
10. Cleveland 4-6 (Owns Conference record tiebreaker over Jacksonville)
11. Jacksonville 4-6
12. LA Chargers 4-7
13. Denver 3-7 (Owns Conference record tiebreaker over NY Jets)
14. NY Jets 3-7
15. Miami 2-8

ELIMINATED: Cincinnati

Controls own destiny for #1 seed: New England
Controls own destiny for first round bye: Baltimore
Controls own destiny for division title: Kansas City, Indianapolis, Houston, Oakland
Controls own destiny for wild card birth: Buffalo

 

[NeverForget06]

Oakland will regret not closing out that game against the Texans... Watson did have that amazing play after getting kicked in the face.. but it never should have gotten to that point.

Need to beat the Jets next, and then close out against the weaker of the 2 AFC south teams. My hope is that they finish at least 3-3, leaving them at 9-7. That should at least give them a shot.

 

[StreetHawk]

Oakland will regret not closing out that game against the Texans... Watson did have that amazing play after getting kicked in the face.. but it never should have gotten to that point.

Need to beat the Jets next, and then close out against the weaker of the 2 AFC south teams. My hope is that they finish at least 3-3, leaving them at 9-7. That should at least give them a shot.

They need to hit 10 wins at minimum.

My mistake on the steelers who are 5-5. Toughest test for them left is Balt and Buff. So, they can hit 10-6.

Right now Indy and Hou are tied but Indy won their first matchup. So, Oak needs Houston to win the division to advance over Indy in a tie breaker.

May 6-4, raiders need to beat the Jets and 3 the other 4 teams aside from KC. Denver with a young starter in either Allen or Lock. Have LAC again on the road but will see a lot of silver and black fans. Titans and Jags at home. Get to 10-6 and they are in good shape. Buffalo should hit 10 wins with a legit chance for 11.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Elimination scenarios starting to come a little faster, and New England picks up some clinching scenarios. Little bit of a strange scenario in the wild card chase, as Pittsburgh - the current 6th seed, could still win out and miss the playoffs. Tonight's game won't have any bearing on the standings, and seemingly no bearing on clinching/elimination scenarios either, so might as well get a jump start:

WEEK 13:
1. New England - 10-1
2. Baltimore - 9-2
3. Houston - 7-4 (Owns H2H tiebreaker vs KC)
4. Kansas City - 7-4
----------------------------------------------
5. Buffalo - 8-3
6. Pittsburgh - 6-5 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over OAK and IND)
___________________________________________
7. Oakland - 6-5 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over IND)
8. Indianapolis - 6-5 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over TEN)
9. Tennessee 6-5
10. Cleveland 5-6
11. Jacksonville 4-7 (Owns Conference Record tiebreaker over LAC and NYJ)
12. LA Chargers 4-7 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over NYJ)
13. NY Jets 4-7
14. Denver 3-8
15. Miami 2-9
ELIMINATED: Cincinnati (0-11)

Controls own destiny for home field advantage: New England
Controls own destiny for #1 seed: Baltimore (regardless of results tonight)
Controls own destiny for division title: Kansas City, Houston, Oakland, Tennessee
Controls own destiny for wild card: Buffalo

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- New England clinches a wild card spot with a win and an Oakland loss
- New England clinches a wild card spot with a win and a Pittsburgh loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Miami is eliminated with a loss
- Miami is eliminated with a Pittsburgh win
- Miami is eliminated with a Tennessee, Oakland, and Houston win

 

[Trap Jesus]

I think it'll be one of those lambs led to the slaughter things against one of the top 3 AFC teams (assuming KC picks it up and separates from the Texans), but the race for the 6 seed is a really interesting mix of teams.

 

[Canada4Gold]

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- New England clinches a wild card spot with a win and an Oakland loss
- New England clinches a wild card spot with a win and a Pittsburgh loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Miami is eliminated with a loss
- Miami is eliminated with a PIT win
- Miami is eliminated with a HOU, TEN, AND OAK win

I have something different, though I've only gone through it once and don't have the Miami SOS clinch figured out yet. Baltimore tonight does impact a little bit as is illustrated by (BAL Result) in brackets. BAL not in brackets is next week. Not sure if you disregard ties or not but there are ones missing without ties as well

NE Clinches Playoff Spot:
- NE Win + PIT Loss/Tie
- NE Win + OAK Loss/Tie
- NE Win + (BAL Loss) + BAL Loss + BUF Loss/Tie
- NE Win + (BAL Loss) + BAL Tie + BUF Loss
- NE Win + (BAL Tie) + BAL Loss + BUF Loss
- NE Tie + PIT Loss + OAK Loss
- NE Tie + PIT Loss + IND Loss
- NE Tie + OAK Loss + IND Loss

DEN Eliminated from Playoffs:
- DEN Loss + TEN Win + HOU Win/Tie + KC Tie

MIA Eliminated from Playoffs:
- MIA Loss/Tie
- PIT Win
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + KC Clinches SOV over MIA: 1 Win from [(BAL), JAC, BAL, DET, MIN, NYJ, GB, HOU]
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + 1 Tie from [(BAL), JAC, BAL, DET, MIN, NYJ, GB, HOU] + KC Clinches SOS over MIA

 

[misterchainsaw]

I have something different, though I've only gone through it once and don't have the Miami SOS clinch figured out yet. Baltimore tonight does impact a little bit as is illustrated by (BAL Result) in brackets. BAL not in brackets is next week. Not sure if you disregard ties or not but there are ones missing without ties as well

NE Clinches Playoff Spot:
- NE Win + PIT Loss/Tie
- NE Win + OAK Loss/Tie
- NE Win + (BAL Loss) + BAL Loss + BUF Loss/Tie
- NE Win + (BAL Loss) + BAL Tie + BUF Loss
- NE Win + (BAL Tie) + BAL Loss + BUF Loss
- NE Tie + PIT Loss + OAK Loss
- NE Tie + PIT Loss + IND Loss
- NE Tie + OAK Loss + IND Loss

DEN Eliminated from Playoffs:
- DEN Loss + TEN Win + HOU Win/Tie + KC Tie

MIA Eliminated from Playoffs:
- MIA Loss/Tie
- PIT Win
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + KC Clinches SOV over MIA: 1 Win from [(BAL), JAC, BAL, DET, MIN, NYJ, GB, HOU]
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + 1 Tie from [(BAL), JAC, BAL, DET, MIN, NYJ, GB, HOU] + KC Clinches SOS over MIA

Yeah, I'm ignoring scenarios that include ties....looks like I missed the double BAL loss + BUF loss though.

Didn't want to bother with SOS yet (especially with BAL playing 1 less game), and I think that and the one I mentioned above is the only ones I'm missing without ties.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Yeah, I'm ignoring scenarios that include ties....looks like I missed the double BAL loss + BUF loss though.

Didn't want to bother with SOS yet (especially with BAL playing 1 less game), and I think that and the one I mentioned above is the only ones I'm missing without ties.

Yeah it's just the double BAL loss/BUF loss and the SOV. I was intrigued though, you had a the OAK, TEN, HOU scenario. What made you get to HOU specifically? That is a valid scenario but the logic behind it is because it clinches SOV for KC which there are 7 other teams that could go in the same place. Just curious how you arrived at HOU without going through SOV.

 

[tardigrade81]

Thank god I didn’t put my life savings on Cinci winning out and making playoffs at 7-9 a couple weeks ago.

I was close..... but I’m smarter than the average bear.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Yeah it's just the double BAL loss/BUF loss and the SOV. I was intrigued though, you had a the OAK, TEN, HOU scenario. What made you get to HOU specifically? That is a valid scenario but the logic behind it is because it clinches SOV for KC which there are 7 other teams that could go in the same place. Just curious how you arrived at HOU without going through SOV.

I'm not sure, it may have just been a happy mistake lol. Acutally I think I know what it is. That series of games forces Tennessee to be above Miami via common games in their 2 team tiebreaker, but I forgot that with KC also in the tiebreaker it goes to strength of victory first.

FWIW I'm trying to figure out strength of victory for your OAK win + TEN win scenario, and I can't seem to get a scenario where KC loses to MIA in that tiebreaker. Miami's SOV maxes out at .446 (50 wins among their 7 victories), and you can get KC's strength of victory a half game beneath that, but in doing so you push another team to 7 wins that has a flat out better conference record than Miami and so strength of record doesn't come into play for a playoff spot. I can't actually force Miami into that spot. This might be a consequence of not using ties? In which case, I'm totally using the more general TEN+OAK scenario as an elimination

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm not sure, it may have just been a happy mistake lol. Acutally I think I know what it is. That series of games forces Tennessee to be above Miami via common games in their 2 team tiebreaker, but I forgot that with KC also in the tiebreaker it goes to strength of victory first.

FWIW I'm trying to figure out strength of victory for your OAK win + TEN win scenario, and I can't seem to get a scenario where KC loses to MIA in that tiebreaker. Miami's SOV maxes out at .446 (50 wins among their 7 victories), and you can get KC's strength of victory a half game beneath that, but in doing so you push another team to 7 wins that has a flat out better conference record than Miami and so strength of record doesn't come into play for a playoff spot. I can't actually force Miami into that spot. This might be a consequence of not using ties? In which case, I'm totally using the more general TEN+OAK scenario as an elimination

Just got some advice from the experts. You were correct, HOU win/tie has to be in there otherwise you can use IND to block HOU and MIA wins the IND/MIA/OAK 3 way.

Not sure if the SOV even matters anymore now that you have to toss HOU win/tie in there but it was possible to get MIA up by half a game. Likely involved tie(s) somewhere

 

[End of Line]

Blows my mind the Steelers are still in it

 

[misterchainsaw]

Just got some advice from the experts. You were correct, HOU win/tie has to be in there otherwise you can use IND to block HOU and MIA wins the IND/MIA/OAK 3 way.

Not sure if the SOV even matters anymore now that you have to toss HOU win/tie in there but it was possible to get MIA up by half a game. Likely involved tie(s) somewhere

Ah yes. I got so fixated on keeping Oakland in 1st and KC in that tiebreaker after working on the SOV thing I completely overlooked that when I went back lol.

I could definitely see how you could swing the SOV with ties. Instead of knocking a team up from 6-10 to 7-9, causing a team to leap frog Miami on conference reocrd, you can give a couple of them a half game each and keep them below Miami at 6-9-1...but like you said, doesn't matter since Indy can block Houston with TEN winning the division.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Ah yes. I got so fixated on keeping Oakland in 1st and KC in that tiebreaker after working on the SOV thing I completely overlooked that when I went back lol.

I could definitely see how you could swing the SOV with ties. Instead of knocking a team up from 6-10 to 7-9, causing a team to leap frog Miami on conference reocrd, you can give a couple of them a half game each and keep them below Miami at 6-9-1...but like you said, doesn't matter since Indy can block Houston with TEN winning the division.

The SOV is clinched in the HOU win case, if HOU ties it could still happen. SOV would be tied SOS required to be clinched. 4 additional ties in the scenario I have on top of the HOU tied required to get there.