NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
42,999
9,191
And finally got Miami's mess sorted, it's an mess

Miami Eliminated from Playoffs:
- MIA Loss/Tie
- PIT Win
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + HOU Win
- OAK Tie + TEN Win + HOU Win/Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + HOU Tie + GB Win/Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + HOU Tie + JAC Win/Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + HOU Tie + MIN Win/Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + HOU Tie + (BAL Win/Tie)
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + HOU Tie + BAL Win/Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + HOU Tie + DET Win/Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Win/Tie + HOU Tie + NYJ Win/Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Win + HOU Tie + DAL Win
- OAK Win + TEN Win + HOU Tie + DAL Tie + CAR Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Win + HOU Tie + CAR Win
- OAK Win + TEN Win + HOU Tie + DEN Win + DAL Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Win + HOU Tie + DEN Win + CAR Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Tie + HOU Tie + DAL Win + CAR Win/Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Tie + HOU Tie + DAL Tie + CAR Win
- OAK Win + TEN Tie + HOU Tie + DEN Win + DAL Win
- OAK Win + TEN Tie + HOU Tie + DEN Win + DAL Tie + CAR Tie
- OAK Win + TEN Tie + HOU Tie + DEN Win + CAR Win
 

misterchainsaw

Preparing PHASE TWO!
Nov 3, 2005
31,885
3,684
Rochester, NY
Hard to imagine the Bills missing at this point. Realistically one more win gives them >95% from most playoff predictor engines, and even with Baltimore and @New England at the schedule, it's hard to imagine them losing to both the Jets and Steelers too. Even losing out puts them around 50-50 on NYT's upshot model. They could even have clinching scenarios next week, depending on how Sunday goes.
 

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
26,249
9,785
9-7 is probably going to be good enough in the AFC this year.
9-7 will depend on tie breaker situations. 10-6 should get you in.

Buffalo/one of Indy/Houston, Pittsburgh and Oakland battling.

Buffalo can virtually eliminate Pittsburgh by beating the Steelers. Caps them to 9 wins maximum.
 

justafan22

Registered User
Jun 22, 2014
11,629
6,249
10-6 gets you in the AFC due to the Texans/Colts/Titans playing each other 3 times.
 

Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
42,999
9,191
9-7 will depend on tie breaker situations. 10-6 should get you in.

Buffalo/one of Indy/Houston, Pittsburgh and Oakland battling.

Buffalo can virtually eliminate Pittsburgh by beating the Steelers. Caps them to 9 wins maximum.

? Steelers only have 5 losses. Even if they lose to Buffalo they can still go 10-6. The Baltimore week 17 game won't be easy mind you, but Baltimore may already be locked into 2nd by then who knows.
 

pockets

Thank you, Bill!
Aug 12, 2003
3,659
1,479
Green Mountain
I think it's very hard to imagine. Things will need to go just right for the Bills, and the Pats still have several cupcakes left on their schedule.
I guess anything is possible but I agree it’s not that easy to imagine. I certainly wouldn’t bet on the Pats going 2-3 (or worse) to finish the season AND the Bills running the table including wins against the Ravens and the Pats in Foxboro.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
187,381
39,376
Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Oakland (and Buffalo, obviously) could still end up with 10 wins each, that would leave 2 10 win teams out.
I gotta think one of those 5- or 6-win teams gets to 9-7. There's just too many of them, and the Browns schedule is easy which probably means they win the next 4 and lose to the 0-15 Bengals.
 

misterchainsaw

Preparing PHASE TWO!
Nov 3, 2005
31,885
3,684
Rochester, NY
Good day for Buffalo and they aren't even playing.

According to the NYT Upshot calculator, the Bills have are now at a 55% chance to make the playoffs in the specific case where they lose out and finish 9-7, if the current results hold (it was 43% coming into the day). If NE beats Houston it goes up to 58%, and if Houston beats NE it goes down to 50% but the division is still in sight.
 

Marc the Habs Fan

Moderator
Nov 30, 2002
98,522
10,566
Longueuil
At this point I think it's a PIT-HOU-TEN battle for 2 spots.

With the interesting wrinkle thrown in that HOU and TEN have yet to play each other...

The Raiders had an amazing opportunity and they took a giant dump.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
187,381
39,376
At this point I think it's a PIT-HOU-TEN battle for 2 spots.

With the interesting wrinkle thrown in that HOU and TEN have yet to play each other...

The Raiders had an amazing opportunity and they took a giant dump.
Houston and Tennesse play each other in Week 17 which is almost definitely going to be Sunday night with the likelihood that the division is on the line.
 

misterchainsaw

Preparing PHASE TWO!
Nov 3, 2005
31,885
3,684
Rochester, NY
I'd wager that SF/SEA will be the SNF Week 17 game.

Certainly possible, but there's a lot of football to play. If, for example, SEA wins out and SF loses to NO but otherwise wins out, Seattle will have the division locked up and SF would likely be locked into the 5 seed. (E: Actually the potential tiebreaker would go to strength of victory - but there still would be a risk of a meaningless game by the time you got to the prime time slot). You probably wouldn't move that game in that case.

Hard to tell which game will be more important this far out.
 

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