NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[Canada4Gold]

EDIT: I think my original post was originally supposed to read CIN win rather than loss due to it being a divisional game. My mistake.

But even then they don't clinch. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh would then tie division, common games, and conference record at 11-5, and it goes to strength of victory for the division. That will literally come down to whether Buffalo (CIN holds tiebreak) or Indianapolis (PIT holds tiebreak) has the better record. If they tie PIT will win overall strength of schedule easily.

I was thinking CIN held the common games tiebreak for some reason, but they both split their non-common games. (CIN beat Buffalo lost to Houston, PIT will have beat IND, lost to NE)

even if Cincinnati would win the division, and Pittsburgh come 2nd with a 11-5 record, if the Broncos drop to 11-5 to tie KC, and KC takes that tiebreaker, NE/DEN/PIT tiebreaker at 11-5 would have PIT 1st on 8-4 conference record, and then DEN beats NE on h2h

so I don't think any clinching scenario would exist with Cincinnati involved anymore since NE can't at this moment win all the tied with Pittsburgh scenarios

 

[misterchainsaw]

even if Cincinnati would win the division, and Pittsburgh come 2nd with a 11-5 record, if the Broncos drop to 11-5 to tie KC, and KC takes that tiebreaker, NE/DEN/PIT tiebreaker at 11-5 would have PIT 1st on 8-4 conference record, and then DEN beats NE on h2h

so I don't think any clinching scenario would exist with Cincinnati involved anymore since NE can't at this moment win all the tied with Pittsburgh scenarios

Hmm. I got all mixed up on the NE scenarios this week I guess. Big difference between beating Denver (last week) and beating Philadelphia (this week) in the scenarios

 

[Tuggy]

Just did a fresh run through the playoff machine. Got:

#1 - Patriots (14-2)
#2 - Bengals (13-3)
#3 - Denver (12-4)
#4 - Colts (9-7)
#5 - Chiefs (10-6)
#6 - Steelers (10-6)

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

I don't see Pitt going 10-6. 9-7 likely.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

I would say their best win was the absolute clowning of the Broncos in Denver.

I mean if you want. Denver has a good defense but their offense stinks. Without that defense they would be about a .500 team. They probably should have lost to Baltimore and at Oakland. Also at Cleveland. They've been bailed out a few times from poor play.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Went through the playoff machine:

1. Patriots 14-2
2. Broncos 13-3
3. Bengals 13-3
4. Texans 9-7
5. Chiefs 10-6
6. Steelers 10-6

---

Jets 10-6 (Steelers would have better common games record)
Bills 9-7
Colts 9-7
Raiders 8-8

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Don't see the Jets winning Sunday or at Buffalo. They still might lose again to NE as well. That machine is flawed and doesn't mean much.

 

[Stats01]

with a Buffalo win, a Raiders win and a Giants win, a Colts win the AFC will have 6 teams at 6-6, all bunched together for those last 2 playoff spots.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Realistically down to 4 teams for 2 WC spots (I just can't see both IND and HOU get in, especially since they face each other):

KC 7-5: vs SD, @ BAL, vs CLE, vs OAK
NYJ 7-5: vs TEN, @ DAL, vs NE, @ BUF
PIT 7-5: @ CIN, vs DEN, @ BAL, @ CLE
BUF 6-6: @ PHI, @ WSH, vs DAL, vs NYJ

KC is a mortal lock. Easy sched, own h2h tie-breaker with BUF, PIT and HOU. Only 2 conference losses puts them in a fantastic spot too in case there is some crazy 3 or 4 team tie that negates the h2h results.

Jets have 2 games they should win, but the last 2 will be tough. Pats will need it in their quest for a bye. They already lost to the Bills.

Steelers: For all their explosiveness, it's hard to feel confident about their chances with only 1 home game. Could be 7-7 in 2 weeks.

Bills must be pissed off that the Pats gave the Eagles a ton of life today. They only need to stay within a game of the Jets since they already beat them, but Bills at 9-7 probably do not get in. Must run the table unless DEN and CIN give them a huge hand by both beating PIT.

I see KC locking it up before week 17.

In week 17, we could have a scenario where PIT needs a win and for NYJ @ BUF to be a tie (in this scenario, all 3 teams are 8-7 or 9-6).

 

[dma0034]

KC 7-5: vs SD, @ BAL, vs CLE, vs OAK
NYJ 7-5: vs TEN, @ DAL, vs NE, @ BUF
PIT 7-5: @ CIN, vs DEN, @ BAL, @ CLE
BUF 6-6: @ PHI, @ WSH, vs DAL, vs NYJ


Looking at that I'd put KC as a lock honestly; no way with tie-breakers over the Steelers and Bills will they not get in with that weak schedule.

If Pittsburgh beats Cincy or Denver I see them as the #6 seed.

I think Buffalo goes 3-1 and finishes at 9-7, Jets will finish at 8-8.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

How did the Bills end up playing 5 out of 6 games on the road? That's bizarre. Was their stadium unavailable or something?

 

[dma0034]

How did the Bills end up playing 5 out of 6 game son the road? That's bizarre. Was their stadium unavailable or something?

No; their first two games and last two games are at home.... so 8 away games in 12 weeks (excluding the bye week). Stadium was 100% available.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

KC 7-5: vs SD, @ BAL, vs CLE, vs OAK
NYJ 7-5: vs TEN, @ DAL, vs NE, @ BUF
PIT 7-5: @ CIN, vs DEN, @ BAL, @ CLE
BUF 6-6: @ PHI, @ WSH, vs DAL, vs NYJ


Looking at that I'd put KC as a lock honestly; no way with tie-breakers over the Steelers and Bills will they not get in with that weak schedule.

If Pittsburgh beats Cincy or Denver I see them as the #6 seed.

I think Buffalo goes 3-1 and finishes at 9-7, Jets will finish at 8-8.

I actually see the Jets finishing 9-7. I can't see them losing to the Titans or the Cowboys, even though that's in Dallas. I also give them a decent chance at beating the Pats. They gave the Pats a real battle in Foxborough when the Pats were fully healthy, so now, coming back to Met Life (where an inferior Giants team almost beat the Pats) I think the Jets stand a good chance of winning. I see the Jets finishing 9-7 at worse but quite possibly 10-6. The road game against the Bills will be the toughest I think, but also may not matter.

 

[dma0034]

I actually see the Jets finishing 9-7. I can't see them losing to the Titans or the Cowboys, even though that's in Dallas. I also give them a decent chance at beating the Pats. They gave the Pats a real battle in Foxborough when the Pats were fully healthy, so now, coming back to Met Life (where an inferior Giants team almost beat the Pats) I think the Jets stand a good chance of winning. I see the Jets finishing 9-7 at worse but quite possibly 10-6. The road game against the Bills will be the toughest I think, but also may not matter.

New York hasn't experienced cold weather this year.... once it gets colder Fitzpatrick will show everyone why he is a good backup not starter in the league

 

[Fish on The Sand]

New York hasn't experienced cold weather this year.... once it gets colder Fitzpatrick will show everyone why he is a good backup not starter in the league

Fair enough, but even if they lose both the Pats game and the Bills game I really can't see them dropping the next two.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

I can see them losing at Dallas because it's the Jets. Fitz is going to do his normal thing at some point. Dallas has a good enough D to hang around. It really comes down to whether Cassel can make a play. Don't think Tennessee can beat them. If it were at Tennessee I'd say its possible. Mariota getting better though.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

I can see Pittsburgh losing their next 3. Well the Denver game to me is tough. Who will be the QB? I can see Baltimore beating them because those game are always close and at home they could find a way.

If Buffalo loses to an NFC East team they'd have the tiebreaker over PIT I believe. They'd have it over the Jets if they beat them twice. The picture really didn't clear up outside of an overachieving KC team has the easiest December schedule ever for a team fighting for a playoff spot. I don't look at them and think they are one of the 6 best teams in the AFC but somehow unfortunately they will get in. One and done team.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I mistakenly said that a BUF win and a NYJ win would eliminate San Diego if they had lost, but I was mistaken in the tiebreaker result between KC and SD at 7-9. SD and KC would actually tie the conference record tiebreak, and SD could win a strength of victory tiebreak and win the #6 seed overall.

This week it's the Jets that do not control their own destiny despite currently sitting in a playoff position. They would lose a potential KC/PIT/NYJ tiebreaker at 11-5, first on conference games to KC, then on common games to PIT.

AFTER WEEK 13 (non-playoff teams that control own destiny are marked with an *)

1. CIN 10-2 (Wins conference record tiebreaker vs NE and DEN)
2. DEN 10-2 (Wins H2H tiebreaker vs NE)
3. NE 10-2
4. IND 6-6 (Wins H2H tiebreaker vs HOU)
5. KC 7-5 (Wins conference record tiebreaker vs NYJ and PIT)
6. NYJ 7-5 (Wins conference record tiebreaker vs PIT) ***Do not control own destiny
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. PIT* 7-5
8. BUF 6-6 (Wins H2H tiebreaker over HOU)
9. HOU* 6-6
10. OAK 5-7 (Wins conference record tiebreaker over MIA)
11. MIA 5-7
12. JAX 4-8 (Wins H2H tiebreaker over BAL)
13. BAL 4-8
14. SD 3-9 (Wins conference record tiebreaker over TEN)
15. TEN 3-9

ELIMINATED: CLE

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
NE - Wins division with win and NYJ loss
NE - Wins division with win, plus two of the following: PIT win, BUF win, CLE loss, or MIA loss (one of these results means New England is guaranteed to at least tie strength of victory with NYJ and they win the strength of schedule tiebreaker since they played PIT + DEN instead of CLE + OAK)
NE - Wins division with NYJ loss and two of the following: BUF win, PIT win, CLE loss, MIA loss. (Same concept as above)
NE - Clinches playoff spot with win. (In order to lose the division to NYJ at 11-5, Pittsburgh can't win more than two games. Nine wins means New England clinches a spot.
NE - Clinches playoff spot with PIT loss (would win H2H tiebreaker vs PIT for #6 if KC won out, and guarantee that the worst NE could do would be a 3 way tie between DEN or KC/PIT/NE for the #5 spot. NE would win a DEN/PIT/NE tiebreak and finish 2nd in a KC/PIT/NE tiebreak (KC would win conference record tiebreak for #5, NE beats PIT H2H for #6. BUF can't get up to 10-6 without handing the Patriots the division, and Cincy wins their 11th by beating Pittsburgh, removing them from tiebreaker discussion at 10-6).
NE - Clinches playoff spot with NYJ loss (Can't both lose division via strength of victory tiebreak and have Pittsburgh get up to 10 wins).

CIN - clinches division with win
CIN - clinches wild card with KC loss (If Cincy beats Denver later in year, they clinch the divison on conference record over PIT, if Denver beats Cincy, Denver will have 11 wins and can not interrupt a KC-CIN tiebreaker since a KC loss would be their 6th. So, AFC East team/CIN/KC is the only 3 way ties at 10-6 possible for Cincinnati to be a part of, and they finish at worst the #6 seed in all scenarios (with KC winning the 3 way tiebreaker). CIN would win a BUF/CIN/KC 3 way tiebreak for the #5 seed. One AFC East Wild card team could get to 11 wins, but CIN would then win a head to head tiebreak at worst vs KC. Note that any scenario in which Cincinnati does not win the division, New England cannot lose their divisional tiebreaker to the Jets due to wins accumulated by PIT.
CIN - Clinches wild card with NYJ loss. (Too much tiebreaker: Only Kansas City can finish ahead of them for the wild card race).

DEN - Clinches division with win and KC loss
DEN - Clinches wild card with win and NYJ or PIT loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- SD with a loss, PIT win, or OAK win (A PIT win guarantees AFC North 2nd place finishes ahead of them and one of Buffalo or NYJ will finish ahead of them, while a SD loss or OAK win means SD can not finish better than 3rd in the AFC West).
- SD with 3 of the following 4 events: BUF win, HOU win, CLE loss, and JAX loss (This will clinch KC's strength of victory tiebreaker vs SD - remember that Miami can't win more than 7 games or they will take a wild card spot).

- TEN with a loss, IND win, or HOU win (An Indy win means TEN can't beat IND for the division, a HOU win means either HOU will have 8 wins or Indy will have 7 wins with 4 divisional wins. Either will beat TEN for the divison and they can't win a wild card).

- BAL is eliminated with a loss and a KC win or a PIT win (Would be win #8, and either one of the AFC East teams finishes ahead of them or the Bills come out of the tiebreak at 7-9 and win the tiebreak vs Baltimore).

- JAX is eliminated with a loss and a PIT, BUF, or NYJ win (Either PIT or 2nd in the AFC East would finish ahead of them and any of KC/OAK/SD would win conference record tiebreakers, and SD is the only one who played them (and they beat them), so 2nd in the AFC West will also finish ahead of them.)
- JAX is eliminated with a loss and a HOU win (This locks them into at best 3rd place in the AFC South - Houston can not lose (or tie) strength of victory tiebreak without sending other AFC teams over 7 wins)

- MIA is eliminated with a loss, BUF or NYJ win, and KC win (A BUF win means either they or NYJ will get to 8 wins, while a NYJ win gets them to 8 right now, and Miami will lose all divisional tiebreakers. KC winning means either they or OAK will beat all AFC East teams in tiebreakers at 8-8 or finish ahead of them.

- OAK is eliminated with an OAK loss, KC win, BUF win, NYJ win, MIA win, IND win, HOU win, BAL loss, CLE loss, and GB loss.


TEAMS THAT CAN LOSE CONTROL OF OWN DESTINY THIS WEEK:
- KC with a loss, PIT win, and NYJ win

- PIT with a loss and BUF win or NYJ win

- HOU with a loss and IND win

TEAMS THAT CAN GAIN CONTROL OF OWN DESTINY THIS WEEK:
- NYJ with a win and a KC or PIT loss

 

[Fish on The Sand]

I can see Pittsburgh losing their next 3. Well the Denver game to me is tough. Who will be the QB? I can see Baltimore beating them because those game are always close and at home they could find a way.

If Buffalo loses to an NFC East team they'd have the tiebreaker over PIT I believe. They'd have it over the Jets if they beat them twice. The picture really didn't clear up outside of an overachieving KC team has the easiest December schedule ever for a team fighting for a playoff spot. I don't look at them and think they are one of the 6 best teams in the AFC but somehow unfortunately they will get in. One and done team.

KC has a top 5 point differential in the entire league. You're really selling them short. I should also add, they have a top 5 point differential while having the hardest schedule in the NFL.

 

[misterchainsaw]

KC 7-5: vs SD, @ BAL, vs CLE, vs OAK
NYJ 7-5: vs TEN, @ DAL, vs NE, @ BUF
PIT 7-5: @ CIN, vs DEN, @ BAL, @ CLE
BUF 6-6: @ PHI, @ WSH, vs DAL, vs NYJ


Looking at that I'd put KC as a lock honestly; no way with tie-breakers over the Steelers and Bills will they not get in with that weak schedule.

If Pittsburgh beats Cincy or Denver I see them as the #6 seed.

I think Buffalo goes 3-1 and finishes at 9-7, Jets will finish at 8-8.

If Pittsburgh beats Cincy especially the Bills are in trouble. This would give the Steelers a common games tiebreaker over the Bills if they both finish 10-6. Essentially they would then have to lose two games (vs Den, Bal, and Cle) for the Bills to pass them. If they lose to Cincinnati, but PIT and BUF both win all the rest of their games, it would go to a strength of victory tiebreak at 10-6, which the Bills have a slight advantage in right now.

Basically their non common wins would be (both teams beat IND):
BUF: MIA(x2), TEN, NYJ(x2), PHI, DAL, WSH, HOU = 47 wins (taking into account one of DAL/WSH will win tomorrow)
PIT: DEN, SF, STL, ARI, CLE(x2), BAL, OAK, SD = 44 wins

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

KC has a top 5 point differential in the entire league. You're really selling them short. I should also add, they have a top 5 point differential while having the hardest schedule in the NFL.

In SE's world, there might be 1 good team per league.

 

[Canada4Gold]

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
NE - Wins division with win and NYJ loss
NE - Wins division with win, plus one of the following: PIT win, BUF win, HOU win, CLE loss, or MIA loss (one of these results means New England is guaranteed to at least tie strength of victory with NYJ and they win the strength of schedule tiebreaker since they played PIT + DEN instead of CLE + OAK)

based on the playoff machine they need 2 of those things. Jets can still win SOV if only 1 happens.

comment edit: also putting HOU there is kind of pointless since they play NE, NE can't win and HOU win as well, same reason thatI assume you din't have TEN there, NYJ would need Tennessee wins to help their SOV(if NE loses to them next week) but not this week since they're playing Tennessee

NE - Wins division with NYJ loss and two of the following: BUF win, PIT win, CLE loss, MIA loss. (Same concept as above)

same thing here, needs 2 of those secondary results

NE - Clinches playoff spot with win. (In order to lose the division to NYJ at 11-5, Cleveland would have to beat KC because of strength of victory tiebreakers. This means that NE can't both lose the division and have KC get to 11 wins).

This one holds true not because CLE would have to beat KC(from above they need 2 results to tie SOV, KC beating CLE is only 1) but because PIT would have to win out as well which gives NE the SOV over the Jets easy

CIN - clinches wild card with KC loss (If Cincy beats Denver later in year, they clinch the divison on common games over PIT, if Denver beats Cincy, Denver will have 11 wins and can not interrupt a KC-CIN tiebreaker since a KC loss would be their 6th. So, AFC East team/CIN/KC is the only 3 way ties at 10-6 possible for Cincinnati to be a part of, and they finish at worst the #6 seed in all scenarios (with KC winning the 3 way tiebreaker). CIN would win a BUF/CIN/KC 3 way tiebreak for the #5 seed. One AFC East Wild card team could get to 11 wins, but CIN would then win a head to head tiebreak at worst vs KC. Note that any scenario in which Cincinnati does not win the division, New England cannot lose their divisional tiebreaker to the Jets due to wins accumulated by PIT.

conference games, but close enough

Not gonna bother looking at the elimination scenarios for now

 

[Canada4Gold]

NE clinches a playoff spot with a Jets loss as well. The only way the Jets would win the division would be SOV which includes a bunch of Pitt losses which puts Pit out of it and gets NE a playoff spot.

 

[Canada4Gold]

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- SD with 3 of the following 4 events: BUF win, HOU win, CLE loss, and JAX loss (This will clinch KC's strength of schedule tiebreaker vs SD - remember that Miami can't win more than 7 games or they will take a wild card spot).

SOV not SOS.

SD is also out with a KC win, or with an Oakland win(Oakland gets to 7-9 with a subsequent week 17 win over KC to keep KC at 7 and then beats KC and SD on conference games)

- BAL is eliminated with a loss and a KC win or a PIT win (Would be win #8, and either one of the AFC East teams finishes ahead of them or the Bills come out of the tiebreak at 7-9 and win the tiebreak vs Baltimore).

and like above a BAL loss and a OAK wins eliminates them by KC forcing OAK to get to 7 wins to keep KC at 7 wins and then Oak's conference record would be better.

- OAK is eliminated with a loss, KC win, BUF win, and NYJ win (KC will lock up at least 2nd in the AFC West with a better divisional record, and either Buffalo will get to 8 wins and win conference record tiebreaker, or the Jets will get to 9 wins.)

conference record with Buffalo would be tied. Would go to SOV at 8-8

BAL, CLE, SD, GB, SD, KC v. IND, MIA, MIA, NYJ, HOU, PHI would be the SOV and Oakland could still win that.

They could lock up the SOV tiebreaker though but you need to add MIA win, IND win, HOU win, BAL loss, CLE loss, GB loss. If you delete just 1 of those except MIA(since it would count double for Buffalo) then you secure at least a SOV tie, but SOS flips back and forth in the playoff machine so I would assume it's impossible to lock that up now, and with such a different schedule I'm not going to compare SOS.

Here is the machine with Oakland in with a loss, KC win, BUF win, and NYJ win this week based on SOV so you can manipulate if if you choose instead of entering all those things yourself

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0791683~1~400791692~2~400791508~2~400791654~1

But yeah an elimination scenario for Oakland this week is...

OAK loss, KC win, BUF win, NYJ win, MIA win, IND win, HOU win, BAL loss, CLE loss, and GB loss.

10 different games need to go a certain way to eliminate Oakland, probably 1 of the biggest scenarios ever.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

KC has a top 5 point differential in the entire league. You're really selling them short. I should also add, they have a top 5 point differential while having the hardest schedule in the NFL.

They lost basically all the "hard" games except for maybe a big Ben less PIT and Manning who shouldn't have even played that game it sounds like. They have poured it on bad teams. They weren't that good last year and I'd bet they are back to mediocrity again next year. Nobody had them as a playoff team this year.