NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[Blitzkrug]

Best chaotic AFC I could come up with:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

>Chaotic
>Titans in at 6-10

You said chaotic, not realistic.

 

[George Binks]

That's the most hilarious senario I'v ever seen.

I'd be cool with it

 

[MMC]

I have

New England
Cincinnati
Denver
Houston
Pittsburgh
Kansas City

 

[pockets]

I have

New England
Cincinnati
Denver
Houston
Pittsburgh
Kansas City

Yep...just ran my own version with the playoff machine and got the same thing.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Chiefs beat Buffalo today and are now 6-5 and Buffalo dropped to 5-6.

Houston also won and is now 6-5. Pittsburgh is 6-4 and currently playing the Seahawks.

Chiefs had a horrendous schedule to start the year and it showed as they started 1-5. They opened with Texans, Broncos, Packers, Bengals with all but the Broncos game being on the road.

Now they get to the easy part of their schedule. They finish Raiders, Chargers, Ravens, Browns, Raiders with the first Raiders game and the Ravens game being on the road.

There's a good possibility they can finish 11-5, and given their tiebreaker advantage over both Buffalo and Houston, the Chiefs should cruise to the playoffs. If the Broncos continue to struggle they could even pull out the division.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Chiefs and Texans now hold the WC spots. Incredible.

 

[Canada4Gold]

this probably gets buried in the GDT pretty quickly so I'll ask here

Can someone explain to me how NE doesn't clinch tonight? According to...

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/11...week-12-panthers-patriots-clinching-scenarios

it's not longer possible, but using the playoff machine...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

I can't get the Pats not in the playoffs if they win tonight. All the 6-5 teams would have to get to 11-5, and the Pats to 11-5, but the Pats win a 3 way tiebreaker with PIT/KC, and if we bring DEN and/or CIN back to 11-5 the NE also get a spot in a 3 way tie with CIN/KC, CIN/DEN, and PIT/DEN.

How does NE not clinch with a win tonight? Can someone show me a scenario where it's possible they don't get in with a win tonight?

 

[Fish on The Sand]

this probably gets buried in the GDT pretty quickly so I'll ask here

Can someone explain to me how NE doesn't clinch tonight? According to...

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/11...week-12-panthers-patriots-clinching-scenarios

it's not longer possible, but using the playoff machine...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

I can't get the Pats not in the playoffs if they win tonight. All the 6-5 teams would have to get to 11-5, and the Pats to 11-5, but the Pats win a 3 way tiebreaker with PIT/KC, and if we bring DEN and/or CIN back to 11-5 the NE also get a spot in a 3 way tie with CIN/KC, CIN/DEN, and PIT/DEN.

How does NE not clinch with a win tonight? Can someone show me a scenario where it's possible they don't get in with a win tonight?

Chiefs would win a 3 way tiebreaker with Steelers/Pats on conference record if they finished 11-5

 

[Canada4Gold]

Chiefs would win a 3 way tiebreaker with Steelers/Pats on conference record if they finished 11-5

and then the Pats would get the 2nd WC on h2h over the Steelers.

any 3 way tie would be for 5th so they'd have to finish last on the tiebreakers to miss the playoffs. In all 4 possible situations they finish 1st, or 2nd.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'll toss this in here too since it explains each situation better and will again get lost in the GDT

I am not going to go through the playoff machine, but if the Pats lose their last 5 AFC games they have left, that puts them 7-5 in the conference. So that's probably how in some complicated tie-breaking scenario.

they'd be 8-0 after beating the Broncos tonight, 8-4 once they lose the next 5.(Eagles game is one of them),

The beat DEN/PIT in h2h sweep

in DEN/CIN Denver is eliminated with a 7-5 conference record, then either NE beats CIN or the don't and then they get the 2nd WC agains DEN in h2h

in KC/CIN, KC takes it on conference games, then NE beats CIN on common games(BUF, PIT, HOU, DEN), NE is 4-1 if they win tonight and lose to the Texans, CIN is 2-1 right now but would have to lose to the Steelers for such a scenario to exist so NE wins common games

in KC/PIT, KC gets 5th on conference games, NE beats PIT on h2h

Can't find a way NE finishes last in a 3 way tie to finish 7th overall

Let me see using the playoff machine...get back to you in a few minutes.

ok, I've been fiddling since the Seattle game ended assuming there could be a strength of victory/schedule could come into play somewhere but I can't find one.

 

[Canada4Gold]

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- NE clinches division with a win and a NYJ loss
- NE clinches wild card with a win and a KC or PIT loss

went back to see these scenarios, and he has NE in with a win since PIT lost, but none of the other sites have that. the guy who does it for CBS tweeted out that NE can't clinch anything this week after the early games.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

I think our best answer (IF NE wins tonight) is to just wait and see what this weeks scenarios say if the NFL still does not consider the Pats as having clinched. We may get our answer.

I still think the scenario with several teams having 2 ties is the way the Pats can't get in.

Is there another playoff machine other than ESPN?

Why the scenario is what it is could be because of this:

If Pats lose out after winning tonight, their conference record would be 8-4.

It seems possible to find a way to get 2 WC teams to have better conference records OR the same 8-4 with a better common games record (which is 5 games). If common games record is tied, next one is SOV - which can not be calculated until the end of the season.

 

[Canada4Gold]

unfortunately I think all the clinching scenarios this week are going to be your regular, NE win or tie, or Jets loss or tie, or PIT loss or tie, or KC loss or tie. I doubt you'll see any CIN loss/DEN loss.

These people who do these scenarios have programs and stuff that can quickly tell I think, my hope is that after this week if NE wins they realize that NE is at 100% or something and come out and say NE has clinched, but that would be a little strange, them not noticing until after it's already happened.

I don't believe it's the double tie, pretty sure the NFL treats 2 ties as exactly 1 win and 1 loss and there's nothing about ties being superior in the tiebreakers.

The best I can come up with is CIN and KC can both beat NE in the conference record tiebreaker(10-2 and 9-3 v. 8-4), however for this to happen CIN would win the division over Pittsburgh on this same tiebreaker(9-3 v. 8-4), and the only possible way to have Pitt win the division tiebreaker before this step is having Cincy alose all 3 remaining division games to lose the division tiebreaker(4-2 v. 3-3) but then Cincy has to win their other games and then their conference tiebreaker against NE is 8-4 each and lose common games.

 

[Canada4Gold]

NE win + PIT loss + CIN loss

this was a clinching scenario this week which makes 0 sense to me. Cincinnati losing to the Rams makes their non-conference record worse, which in turn would make their conference record better in any 11-5 tie(1-3 makes it 10-2, 2-2 makes it 9-3, 3-1 makes it 8-4, etc). Had Cincinnati lost that game today, that makes their conference record better in a 11-5 tie, with a loss today it could have been 9-3 conference record, after they lose the division 3-3 v. 4-2 to pittsburgh, and 9-3 would have been better than the Pats 8-4

A Cincinnati loss would have literally made clinching less likely for the Pats, in fact I'm confident in saying a Cincy loss would have made it impossible for the Pats to clinch this week, everything else the same.

Maybe that's a typo and it's supposed to be Cincinnati win?

 

[Canada4Gold]

actually nvm, I can see why that could be there now, a loss to the Rams means they can no longer lose all 3 divisional games and get to 11-5 and thus would win the division over Pitt, however I think with a Cincinnati win(the current situation) they've clinched as well because cincy losing the division on a 11-5 tie means they've got an equal to or worse conference record to NE and lose on common games.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Mystery solved



I couldn't find a scenario where Pit beats out Cincinnati on division record that still leaves Cincinnati above NE on conference record, and wouldn't you know it involves ties.

Denver can win now please now that I have my answer, I'd prefer Denver to win

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Yup, ran it in the playoff machine and it works.

It also works if CIN ties CLE and loses to BAL.

 

[Canada4Gold]

what's so great about said scenario, all the other meaningful games are over, CIN/BAL ties Pittsburgh gets 1st seed, but if CIN wins Pittsburgh doesn't make the playoffs at all

Of course that would never happen, not only because of 2 ties though, same thing happens without the 2 ties(the Pitt 1st to 7th part not the NE part lol), at 11-5(except the scenario is with a Cin win/cin loss), but no way you'd see 6 teams tying at 11-5.(possibly 7 if Houston gets there)

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

The AFC is a mess beyond belief. You have like 9 teams for 3 spots(I say 3 because the South is up for grabs still)

 

[Sturm]

If New England gets healthy for the playoffs the roll to the Super Bowl. No team in the AFC can match the Patriots when they are at or close to health. Have to see when the time table for when their key players - Collins, Hightower, Gronk, Amendola, Edleman can come back.

The regular season seeding does get interesting, as NE may lose another couple of games and go 13-3 depending on who is out.

 

[misterchainsaw]

To be clear, I don't take into account ties (and especially multiple ties) when I do clinching. I guess I probably should, but that just opens a whole another layer of complexity

 

[misterchainsaw]

And here we go (again, I treat all games as a win-loss proposition. Not going to worry about multiple ties keeping a team out this far away from the playoffs. Let's be honest, anyone whose in position to clinch this week isn't going to miss the playoffs because of some weird situation that involved a tie

ENTERING WEEK 13 (non-playoff teams that control their own destiny marked with an *)
1. NE 10-1
2. CIN 9-2 (Wins conference record tiebreaker vs. DEN)
3. DEN 9-2
4. IND 6-5 (Wins H2H tiebreaker for division vs. HOU)
5. KC 6-5 (KC wins 4 way tiebreaker over HOU, NYJ, and PIT by conference record)
6. HOU 6-5 (HOU wins 3 way tiebreaker over NYJ and PIT by conference record)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. NYJ 6-5 (Wins conference record tiebreaker vs PIT)
8. PIT* 6-5
9. OAK 5-6 (Wins conference record tiebreak vs BUF)
10. BUF 5-6
11. JAX 4-7 (Wins tiebreaker via H2H sweep vs MIA and BAL)
12. BAL 4-7 (Wins conference record tiebreak vs MIA)
13. MIA 4-7
14. SD 3-8
15. CLE 2-9 (Wins H2H tiebreak vs TEN)
16. TEN 2-9

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
NE clinches division with a win and a NYJ loss
NE clinches wild card with a win and a PIT OR KC loss.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- CLE is eliminated with IND, NYJ, HOU win (will guarantee that it is a multiple team tiebreaker for the #6 at 7-9, meaning CLE's assumed H2H win over KC will be meaningless and at best their conference record will lose to the AFC West team at 7-9)

- CLE and TEN are eliminated with losses (6-10 won't do it. One of PIT-IND will have 7 wins, one of the AFC West teams will have 7 wins, and one of the Bills, Jets, and Texans will get to 7 wins).

- SD is eliminated with a loss, BUF win, and NYJ win (one of OAK/KC must finish with 7 wins by winning divisional games against the other, meaning one of them must finish ahead of SD by winning a conference record tiebreak. If the Bills and Jets win, either the Jets will get to 8 wins, or the Bills will get to 7 wins with a better conference record than San Diego.

TEAMS THAT CAN GAIN CONTROL OF OWN DESTINY IN WEEK 13:
- NYJ with win + KC loss or PIT loss

- OAK with win and NYJ loss (The Jets' or Bills' presence at 10-6 would only help OAK's cause in tiebreakers vs. AFC North and South teams. CIN and PIT can't both be wild cards and OAK can't lose tiebreaks vs any AFC East or South team at 10-6.

TEAMS THAT CAN LOSE CONTROL OF OWN DESTINY IN WEEK 13:
- KC with loss and NYJ win (Jets can still finish with 11 wins and CIN can still finish 2nd at 10-6 and knock out KC with H2H win with PIT winning division regardless of their results this week)

- PIT with loss

 

[Canada4Gold]

NE can't clinch with a win and a CIN loss(and it doesn't involve ties)

if NE wins, assuming NE, NYJ, PIT, KC all get to 11-5, CIN loses this week, then loses to the Steelers, and Ravens, and beat the Broncos and Niners they're also at 11-5.

Pitt beats CIN on division record(4-2 v. 3-3), NYJ beats NE on conference record, then you have a 3 way NE/KC/CIN tie, KC wins 5th on conference record(10-2), Cin takes 6th on conference record(8-4), NE is 7th at 7-5 conference record

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0791568~1~400791576~2~400791602~2~400791501~1

 

[misterchainsaw]

NE can't clinch with a win and a CIN loss(and it doesn't involve ties)

if NE wins, assuming NE, NYJ, PIT, KC all get to 11-5, CIN loses this week, then loses to the Steelers, and Ravens, and beat the Broncos and Niners they're also at 11-5.

Pitt beats CIN on division record(4-2 v. 3-3), NYJ beats NE on conference record, then you have a 3 way NE/KC/CIN tie, KC wins 5th on conference record(10-2), Cin takes 6th on conference record(8-4), NE is 7th at 7-5 conference record

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0791568~1~400791576~2~400791602~2~400791501~1

EDIT: I think my original post was originally supposed to read CIN win rather than loss due to it being a divisional game. My mistake.

But even then they don't clinch. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh would then tie division, common games, and conference record at 11-5, and it goes to strength of victory for the division. That will literally come down to whether Buffalo (CIN holds tiebreak) or Indianapolis (PIT holds tiebreak) has the better record. If they tie PIT will win overall strength of schedule easily.

I was thinking CIN held the common games tiebreak for some reason, but they both split their non-common games. (CIN beat Buffalo lost to Houston, PIT will have beat IND, lost to NE)

 

[Fish on The Sand]

I don't think KC is that good of a team. Their best win is versus a Big Ben less Pitt. However as you said their weak schedule probably helps them. They are proof of what the NFL is for most teams year to year. A weak schedule can make an average team a playoff team.

I would say their best win was the absolute clowning of the Broncos in Denver.