This has been my biggest pet peeve lately. I get it with about a minute. I talked about it in a playoff thread and i actually did some minor digging.
There is on average 31.5 shots on goal per team. Round that down to 30. That’s a shot every 2 minutes. That means on average if your goalie is pulled more then 1:59 your letting up a goal. And that is not counting players being way more willing to shoot the puck outside the offensive zone. To me the risk of letting up a goal isn’t worth pulling the goalie unless your in the zone with control.
Are you forgetting the fact that the teams is now playing with a man advantage? Why are you using 5-on-5 shot stats? How much shots does a team average per penalty kill?
Also you think that the team should wait to pull the goalie because a team averages a shot against every 2 minutes. So in that extra minute you waited, by the stats you're quoting, there's a 50% chance you'll actually get a shot, and on that coin flip odd you get a shot you only have a league average 9.46% chance you will score.
You may think it's risky to pull a goalie early but the real risk is being passive and not seizing the opportunity.
Let's look at some other numbers:
NHL average powerplay percentage (2 mins or less man advantage) = slightly above 20%
NHL average team goals per game = 2.92 or one every 20.41 mins per team
Odds of scoring after pulling a goalie (from 2016) = 10%
Odds of scoring on the team who has pulled the goalie = 24% (wish I could find a goal per minute stat but I couldn't)
I can probably count on my hand or hands how many times I’ve seen a pulled goalie work
Are you serious? You must haven't watched much hockey in your life.