Adding an extra attacker in late game situations or not?

[Streetsamurai]

I'm not saying I disagree here, but to play devil's advocate....there's an average of 31.5 shots when the game is played 5 skaters a side per team. Do you think a team of 5 skaters would still get 30 shots if the other team had an extra man on the ice the entire game?

Obviously there is an empty net to shoot at so no team would do it for the whole game, but ideally if a team is getting a shot every 2 minutes, once you outnumber your opposition in skaters you should be able to increase the amount of time between their shots, at least somewhat.

For my money, anything within the final 2 minutes once you have established offensive zone possession is fine.

Not necessarily. When the net is empty, players takes shots from far away, which they wouldn't take if a goalie was in the net

 

[Peat]

That's a pretty easy part of it - over the past three seasons, the median SA/60 for NHL teams in a With Empty Net scenario is 18.34. The number of shots do drop.

 

[Stive Morgan]

Pulling the goalie never works.

Except when it does.

Sixty percent of the time, it works every time.

 

[Summer Rose]

The classic wisdom I know as a fan and player is that you pull the goalie for the extra attacker with 90 seconds remaining per goal you're down at the earliest opportunity after that point, but no sooner (some exceptions do apply - if you're down 2 with 3:15 left and have an attacking zone faceoff - send out six skaters and no goalie, sure). If you're desperate at the end of a playoff series, you might even do it sooner. If it's the regular season, you generally don't bother if you're down by 3 goals or more, because goal differential is a minor tiebreaker. A power play with under 5 minutes and down by 3, eh, why not though.

As for whether you actually do it or not, aside from the aforementioned situation of not bothering if you're down 3+ in an NHL regular season game (there are perhaps some similar situations where you just don't bother at some point), why not? What do you have to lose by trying?

 

[SwedishFire]

The classic wisdom I know as a fan and player is that you pull the goalie for the extra attacker with 90 seconds remaining per goal you're down at the earliest opportunity after that point, but no sooner (some exceptions do apply - if you're down 2 with 3:15 left and have an attacking zone faceoff - send out six skaters and no goalie, sure). If you're desperate at the end of a playoff series, you might even do it sooner. If it's the regular season, you generally don't bother if you're down by 3 goals or more, because goal differential is a minor tiebreaker. A power play with under 5 minutes and down by 3, eh, why not though.

As for whether you actually do it or not, aside from the aforementioned situation of not bothering if you're down 3+ in an NHL regular season game (there are perhaps some similar situations where you just don't bother at some point), why not? What do you have to lose by trying?

Exactlimento!

In NHL GF - GA doesnt counts, its wins.
So its nothing to lose, more to win situation to send out an extra attacker everytime ypur down 1-3 goals. Why not? The audience gets very exciting hockey, and players scores more goals. Goals per game increases.

win win win

 

[Legionnaire]

These two games actually happened. So yes, definitely.

 

[banks]

When to pull the goalie really depends on having O zone possession. Can't pull him if the other team has the puck. Or even if you have the puck but haven't gotten set up in their end.

Mike Babcock blew that multiple times in playoff games. Pulled the goalie when the Leafs had the puck at center ice, and they never did get set up. Resulted in goals against pretty quick, and games lost.

 

[Oddbob]

I would start a must win game in the regular season by pulling the goalie and play the first 5 minutes with a PP.

 

[Tripledeke333]

IMO coaches should pull the goalie much earlier (around the 2:30pm) mark. I believe this is backed by advanced stats. Also any time below 5 minutes left when you have a favorable match up I would pull it.

I especially would pull the goalie early in low scoring games. Your team had all game to get goals and did not get it done. Below 5 minutes it is so or die. I’d rather give my team a shot at winning than have the clock bleed down and lose that way.

 

[bellringer77]

I'm not saying I disagree here, but to play devil's advocate....there's an average of 31.5 shots when the game is played 5 skaters a side per team. Do you think a team of 5 skaters would still get 30 shots if the other team had an extra man on the ice the entire game?

Obviously there is an empty net to shoot at so no team would do it for the whole game, but ideally if a team is getting a shot every 2 minutes, once you outnumber your opposition in skaters you should be able to increase the amount of time between their shots, at least somewhat.

For my money, anything within the final 2 minutes once you have established offensive zone possession is fine.

I think thats easily balanced with having an empty net to shoot at and the round down

 

[bellringer77]

in the last full season, 185 goals where scored with the team having there goaltender pulled in 1375 minutes of ice time versus 423 goal again, that about 1 every day of the season.

So by minutes that season team that removed their goaltender scored 0.135 goals for versus 0.308 goal against.

Some of those will be when they pull the goaltender on a penalty call I imagine, making the goal against number look lower than they are in the end of game scenario if that represent a relevant amount of minutes.

I would have to look deeper but it’s hard to believe as I’ve watched hockey for years it’s rare to see it work out past the 90 second mark

 

[WATTAGE4451]

I would start a must win game in the regular season by pulling the goalie and play the first 5 minutes with a PP.

Now that's dumb.

Pulling the goalie increases the opposition's chances of scoring more than yours, it only works in late game because you have such a low chance of scoring anyways that you might as well try everything since it doesn't matter if you lose by 1 goal or 5 goals, and you are going to lose anyways if you don't score.

 

[bellringer77]

Thats not accurate. The way teams play 6 on 5 its like a power play. Zone time can be ridiculous. Teams pull the goalie down by 2 with 4 mins to go and never give up a possession that is more than a clear or an icing. Take your 30 shot 60 minute game and make a 60 min 5 on 4 and see what the numbers look like then.

a power play and having an extra guy with no one in net are not comparable

 

[bellringer77]

That is shots per minute of 5-on-5 play. The other team probably isn't getting a shot on net every 1:59 if you are 6-on-5.

That is simply false. Empty net goals are scored at the wazoo

 

[bellringer77]

Are you forgetting the fact that the teams is now playing with a man advantage? Why are you using 5-on-5 shot stats? How much shots does a team average per penalty kill?

Also you think that the team should wait to pull the goalie because a team averages a shot against every 2 minutes. So in that extra minute you waited, by the stats you're quoting, there's a 50% chance you'll actually get a shot, and on that coin flip odd you get a shot you only have a league average 9.46% chance you will score.

You may think it's risky to pull a goalie early but the real risk is being passive and not seizing the opportunity.

Let's look at some other numbers:

NHL average powerplay percentage (2 mins or less man advantage) = slightly above 20%

NHL average team goals per game = 2.92 or one every 20.41 mins per team

Odds of scoring after pulling a goalie (from 2016) = 10%

Odds of scoring on the team who has pulled the goalie = 24% (wish I could find a goal per minute stat but I couldn't)



Are you serious? You must haven't watched much hockey in your life.

You can’t compare a power play with having an extra guy with an empty net. It’s not even close to the same thing.

 

[bellringer77]

There is only one team last year with more then a 10 percent success rate. If you look closely at stats most teams had a negative success rate.( giving up twice as many empty net goals as scored while having an empty net.

For all you folks clamoring about I can’t use 5v5 stats. Your right! It’s even better!

 

[WATTAGE4451]

This has been my biggest pet peeve lately. I get it with about a minute. I talked about it in a playoff thread and i actually did some minor digging.

There is on average 31.5 shots on goal per team. Round that down to 30. That’s a shot every 2 minutes. That means on average if your goalie is pulled more then 1:59 your letting up a goal. And that is not counting players being way more willing to shoot the puck outside the offensive zone. To me the risk of letting up a goal isn’t worth pulling the goalie unless your in the zone with control. I can probably count on my hand or hands how many times I’ve seen a pulled goalie work

You have very very low chances of scoring with less than 3 minutes anyway, especially when the other team is up by a goal and if they get possession, they just have to kill clock instead of trying to score.

 

[Oddbob]

Now that's dumb.

Pulling the goalie increases the opposition's chances of scoring more than yours, it only works in late game because you have such a low chance of scoring anyways that you might as well try everything since it doesn't matter if you lose by 1 goal or 5 goals, and you are going to lose anyways if you don't score.

 

[MadLuke]

There is only one team last year with more then a 10 percent success rate. If you look closely at stats most teams had a negative success rate.( giving up twice as many empty net goals as scored while having an empty net.

For all you folks clamoring about I can’t use 5v5 stats. Your right! It’s even better!

If that was not the case, it would be better to never have the goaltender on, obviously it is a negative rate strategy (or like I said why put that goaltender in your net if you can score more often than the opposition), that is not the question.

Statue quo make you loose the game, you are ready to make the chance of a goal to be scored explode even if it more likely to be against you to be for you in the situation of a must score goal with 2 minute left to the game.

You knew that before looking, you had just quoted my message clearly saying that:
So by minutes that season team that removed their goaltender scored 0.135 goals for versus 0.308 goal against.

I would have to look deeper but it’s hard to believe as I’ve watched hockey for years it’s rare to see it work out past the 90 second mark

It will be rare for the single team you follow, but if you multiply that by 31 it become really common

 

[sportsvg]

How many empty net goals you give up means nothing in the decison to pull the goalie. How many times you tie up the game pulling the goaile compared to not pulling the goalie is the only thing that matters and why the advance stats would say to pull them earlier. You're going to get scored on way more than you are going to tie up the game but as long as you tie it up more often than you would by keeping the goalie in the net it is worth it.

If I'm down by 1 with 4 minutes to play and I would tie the game 2% of the time with my goalie in the net and 2.1% of the time with the goalie pulled you should pull them, even if 75% of the time I give up an empty net goal.

 

[crazy8888]

If you are down with few minutes left, what do you have to loose? Only guarantee is that your goalie wont score. So get him out because the 6th skater can score.

 

[TheOtherOne]

I'd pull with 5 min left. If you're down 1 at that point you were probably going to lose anyway. An extra EN goal doesn't matter. Might as well give it everything you got to try to tie it up.

 

[Lolonegoal]

There is only one team last year with more then a 10 percent success rate. If you look closely at stats most teams had a negative success rate.( giving up twice as many empty net goals as scored while having an empty net.

For all you folks clamoring about I can’t use 5v5 stats. Your right! It’s even better!

You're not thinking about it the right way. You're considering getting scored on an empty as a failure when it reality not scoring a goal yourself is the failure. Any scenario where you don't tie the game results in a losing game, so whether the other team scores is relevant in only the amount of time it subtracts away from you having the opportunity to score, and at the point of the game is miniscule. That's the whole concept of pulling your goalie.

Basically you shouldn't be comparing the statistics of a team scoring with the goalie pulled vs. being scored on, you should be comparing scoring with a goalie pulled vs. scoring without the goalie pulled.

And with under 3 goals per average, you're averaging less than a goal per period. So you roughly have 5% of scoring, but it doesn't even matter because 5-on-5 your opponent has the same odds scoring on you. So the probability of you scoring in a minute and your opponent not, is roughly 4.75% (0.05 x 0.95), so if scoring with the goalie pulled works 10% that means your odds have more than doubled.

Any counter arguments about being scored on with the empty net are irrelevant because in that 10%, they didn't and you were able to tie it up, and that 10% is much higher than 4.75%. Getting scored on with a empty net just gets lumped into the data of 'not scoring and losing'. And if you think it's damaging to risk getting an EN goal against, than that's just kind of dumb because if it's within the last minute of the game, like we stated, you're only missing out on a <5% chance to score.

Like I said it's about salvaging. It's like selling a broken car for parts or having a yard sale of for stuff you don't use anymore. You're not getting great value, but you were getting basically zero keeping it.

 

[TheOtherOne]

There is only one team last year with more then a 10 percent success rate. If you look closely at stats most teams had a negative success rate.( giving up twice as many empty net goals as scored while having an empty net.

For all you folks clamoring about I can’t use 5v5 stats. Your right! It’s even better!

"Negative success rate" is meaningless here. How many of those lost games were going to be lost anyway, even if the goalie was never pulled? Possibly all of them.

 

[hangman005]

Based on last season, Vegas could barely score a man up. I'd pass.