Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap Part XLII

[Hivemind]

Winnik's underlying numbers are suprisingly strong, his cap hit is low and he'd cost a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I think he plays RW at least.

If we were looking for a Joel Ward replacement (without the PP2 usefulness), sure. Winnik simply isn't a first line option.

 

[ReggietheSavage15]

I mean, if Dan Gilbert can welcome Lebron back...and let's be real, Lebron's departure was 1,000,000x worse, then there should be ZERO issue with exploring the option of bringing Jagr back into the fold. He'd obviously be a rental, but he'd be someone who would help take our 1st line to the next level. Even at 42, he's got enough in the tank to really bolster any team he's traded to.

 

[BobRouse]

If we were looking for a Joel Ward replacement (without the PP2 usefulness), sure. Winnik simply isn't a first line option.

Peter says:

Winnik is one of those quiet, underappreciated guys who uniformly makes his teammates better (sterling WOWYS). If Toronto is willing to make a trade before the deadline, which they totally and obviously are, the Caps should go for it. Think about it: Winnik is a solid middle-sixer who earns less than Brouwer ($3.6 MM), Ward ($3 MM), and Chimera ($2 MM), but does more to drive possession any of those guys.

The question in my mind is always whom the Caps could deal. If Toronto commits to a genuine rebuild, and they should, they might not settle for a veteran UFA forward who is “good in the room.†Dealing youth players scares me, but I’m still very much in favor of improving the middle six with Winnik.

Ian says:

If the Caps are looking for some forward depth heading into the playoffs, this is their man. Winnick is a smart, underrated player who could basically play anywhere. If Toronto is willing to take Washington’s extra third-round pick and a low-level prospect for a player who won’t want to re-sign, why not?

Pat says:

Winnik would be a really good fit for the Caps. While there are other forwards available who may make a bigger impact, Winnik makes sense for a lot of reasons. He has a low cap hit, so the Caps wouldn’t have to do anything drastic to stay under the cap if they traded for him. He’s a UFA at the end of the season, so his salary comes off the books at the end of the season. He’s capable of playing top-six minutes. He’s spent time playing with really talented forwards like Ryan O’Reilly and Nazem Kadri. He’s been a positive relative possession player in four of his six seasons in the league, including this season at plus-4.2 percent. He likely wouldn’t cost all that much. The Caps could do much worse than acquiring Winnik.


http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2015/02/13/lets-do-thumbs-upthumbs-down-for-the-caps-potential-trade-targets/

Winnik is a +13 on a team with a -14 goal differential. The 2nd closest forward is Sanotrelli at a +7 and then Komorov at a +2.

The fact that Winnik is a positive possession player on a horrible possession team is impressive by itself.


If some people are clamouring for Darren Helm then they should be clamouring for Winnik.

Winnik has a smaller cap hit, would not be hard to acquire and he drives play.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Come on guys! This talk about Green for Helm and acquiring Winnik for top line?! We're better than this!

Those are just moves to make moves. Not sure they make sense. Plus, keep in mind that this team was .500 for the first 10-20 games, so the system isn't a guarantee to make the team better by a mid level acquired player. With 65 or 66 games played before the deadline - the player we acquire may not be fully fit in to the system until (hopefully) playoff time.

Remember guys, still THREE WEEKS until the deadline, so there's still a lot to be determined. We could have a major injury, one of the guys we are looking at could be injured, etc. I feel EVERYONE is just jumping the gun due to the Kane trade which was due to him basically being neeeded to be moved as he was becoming a locker room cancer to a team fighting for the playoffs.

 

[ChibiPooky]

Winnik is a LW. I was targeting him as a Chimera replacement (though it's possible he would be better than Laich on 3).

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Bozak is a Canadian Johansson. Barf barf barf.

 

[BobRouse]

Winnik is a LW. I was targeting him as a Chimera replacement.

NHL.com has him listed as a C.

ESPN has him listed as a RW.

Yahoo has him listed as a LW.

Hockey reference has him as a C/LW.


I'm pretty sure if MJ, Fehr and Laich can play all forward positions then so can Winnik. Hockey News says he can play all forward positions.


Its true he doesn't produce like a top 6 but his cap hit, acquisition cost, possession stats make him attractive.

 

[HunterSThompson]

NHL.com has him listed as a C.

ESPN has him listed as a RW.

Yahoo has him listed as a LW.

Hockey reference has him as a C/LW.


I'm pretty sure if MJ, Fehr and Laich can play all forward positions then so can Winnik. Hockey News says he can play all forward positions.


Its true he doesn't produce like a top 6 but his cap hit, acquisition cost, possession stats make him attractive.

He is as much a C as Brooks Laich. He can play there, but he just works better on the wing. He is a lefty shot, so LW is usually more natural for those guys, but he could probably play both sides.

 

[Hivemind]

BobRouse, RMNB is about the worst blog you can visit for insightful/quality analysis. Winnik is a useful piece (and is typically a LW), and I wouldn't mind adding him as a checker one bit. However, he's simply not a top six, let alone a top line, option. He's a great defensive and possession player, but he doesn't produce at all and he doesn't improve the production of those around him. His career high is a mere eleven goals, and that was back in 2011. Since then, he has posted 8, 6, and 6 goal campaigns, and has a mere 5 goals this season. RMNB is overselling his "versatility" and ability to "play anywhere." Winnik is a very useful bottom six piece. He's not a 1RW.

 

[ChibiPooky]

I've only ever seen Winnik at LW in games, but those were almost all with Colorado. I don't know what Toronto's been doing with him.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

It wouldn't be cheap, and it would take salary moving out, but I wonder if the Wild would be willing to move Pominville if their current run sputters out before the deadline. They're playing themselves back into contention, so it doesn't look all that likely right now, though.

Also not sure if Pominville has a NTC.

The Wild are 7-1-2 in their last 10 and 2 pts out of a playoff spot with a game in hand on quickly sinking Calgary. Don't see any way they ship out Pominville, unless they value Johansson as a Zucker replacement. We'd add.

 

[BobRouse]

BobRouse, RMNB is about the worst blog you can visit for insightful/quality analysis. Winnik is a useful piece (and is typically a LW), and I wouldn't mind adding him as a checker one bit. However, he's simply not a top six, let alone a top line, option. He's a great defensive and possession player, but he doesn't produce at all and he doesn't improve the production of those around him. His career high is a mere eleven goals, and that was back in 2011. Since then, he has posted 8, 6, and 6 goal campaigns, and has a mere 5 goals this season. RMNB is overselling his "versatility" and ability to "play anywhere." Winnik is a very useful bottom six piece. He's not a 1RW.

I have to disagree there. RMNB, BrooksLaichYear, and Japers all provide good data to back up their claims and RMNB is funny to boot.

RE: Winnik

It was more a counter point to the "Trade Green for Helm" crowd. If they want Helm on the team so Fehr could be pushed up then we may as well get Winnik instead and be able to keep Green.

I agree he is certainly not a great top 6 scoring option.

 

[artilector]

I have to disagree there. RMNB, BrooksLaichYear, and Japers all provide good data to back up their claims and RMNB is funny to boot.

RE: Winnik

It was more a counter point to the "Trade Green for Helm" crowd. If they want Helm on the team so Fehr could be pushed up then we may as well get Winnik instead and be able to keep Green.

I agree he is certainly not a great top 6 scoring option.

That might have been true, except in "Trade Green for Helm", the "Green" part would be at least as important as the "Helm" part, at least for the aforementioned "crowd".

Reduce team fragility, free up ~3m in cap (assuming difference between Green and cheaper replacement), get a useful player in return => that would be the idea.

 

[BobRouse]

We can just get Winnik and not have to worry about jumping through all those hoops.

 

[BackToTheBasics]

I'm watching some Arizona games right now and I was on board with getting Vermette at first but now watching the games, he hasn't been impressing me much at all. It doesn't look like he'd be any better than Kuzy already is. Michalek on the other hand would interest me if Orlov doesn't play well when he comes back. The rental options are basically Stewart or Jagr for the top 6.

 

[Hivemind]

I have to disagree there. RMNB, BrooksLaichYear, and Japers all provide good data to back up their claims and RMNB is funny to boot.

RMNB is fine for the humor and culture pieces. They're pretty bad at analysis. They just regurgitate whatever the latest flashy new graphs are, and spew numbers without spending a whole lot of time contextualizing them. Japers is far superior when it comes to actual analysis.

 

[artilector]

We can just get Winnik and not have to worry about jumping through all those hoops.

If the main goal is to avoid complications, just stand pat and don't worry about anything -- "for dust thou art, and unto dust shalt thou return"

 

[BobRouse]

If the main goal is to avoid complications, just stand pat and don't worry about anything -- "for dust thou art, and unto dust shalt thou return"

Its more about "why overcomplicate things if you don't have to?"

I think the Caps make a push to get a top 6 forward. Whether its a big deal for one with term left or a UFA remains to be seen.

I do think that they'd be willing to part with good futures for a guy with term but barring that they aren't going to make a 1st+Barber trade for Vermette for example.

So they either go all in for an ROR type player or just go for a Santorelli/Winnik type for a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

I don't believe they touch the D. Just my opinion. If they bring a forward in then at least one forward will be going out be it Chimera/MJ or someone else.

 

[Raikkonen]

Its more about "why overcomplicate things if you don't have to?"

I think the Caps make a push to get a top 6 forward. Whether its a big deal for one with term left or a UFA remains to be seen.

I do think that they'd be willing to part with good futures for a guy with term but barring that they aren't going to make a 1st+Barber trade for Vermette for example.

So they either go all in for an ROR type player or just go for a Santorelli/Winnik type for a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

I don't believe they touch the D. Just my opinion. If they bring a forward in then at least one forward will be going out be it Chimera/MJ or someone else.

My understanding of Helm is that he's exactly the ROR type player himself. Just lacks size and offense of ROR, but maybe even more physical. And he's certainly faster. He should be upgrade other Fehr and 2nd best center on the team instantly (if you consider Kuz not ready for playoffs yet). The line he will play is our 2nd (Laich and Co), his caphit is 2.1M I think and he got 1 year left still...

Winnik is a winger, and isn't comparable with Helm, at all. Darren Helm helps the team in several ways (3C + 2LW-Fehr + cap space). Big difference with Winnik.

That's why he isn't available in the first place, but for Green they could consider trading him.

 

[BobRouse]

My understanding of Helm is that he's exactly the ROR type player himself. Just lacks size and offense of ROR, but maybe even more physical. And he's certainly faster. He should be upgrade other Fehr and 2nd best center on the team instantly (if you consider Kuz not ready for playoffs yet). The line he will play is our 2nd (Laich and Co), his caphit is 2.1M I think and he got 1 year left still...

Winnik is a winger, and isn't comparable with Helm, at all. Darren Helm helps the team in several ways (3C + 2LW-Fehr + cap space). Big difference with Winnik.

That's why he isn't available in the first place, but for Green they could consider trading him.

Helm is a speedy waterbug who hits and is a fine bottom 6 player.

ROR has had seasons 55 and 64 pts. This year he is having a down year with 29pts and still will easily surpass Helm's career year of 32pts some time back.

ROR is not physical but he is a superior offensive player and I'd say he's a better defensive player too.

Winnik is a far far closer comprable to Helm. I'd take Helm between the two but no chance at the expense of Green. Winnik has played C before too and could certainly do that.

 

[Xaroc]

A few thoughts based on reading this thread:

Mike Green is a beast. Trading him unless it is in a deal to bring back a great player would be a mistake. Stop being Trotz and focusing on the mistakes rather than the process.

Wall work Johansson (way improved this year) > Burra (solid) > Kuz (needs work)

Vermette is seriously overrated. Guy has 3rd line center skills. Don't think he improves the team at all.

Should take a long look at Bergenheim he is a really good possession player and productive in the playoffs. Would make our middle 6 instantly a lot better.

Like the idea of Winnik as well. Hell get both him and Bergenheim if you can get them for picks. Not sure how the cap space works out on both.

Need to get some vets in here to bolster our ranks since Trotz doesn't seem to handle younger players well.

 

[Raikkonen]

As currently constructed, Winnik probably goes to 4LW.

Ovechkin-Nicky-Mojo
Bergenheim-Kuz-TBro
Laich-Fehr-Ward
Winnik/Chimera-Beagle-Wilson/Latta

Actually Bergenheim as 2LW/3LW sounds good, and cheaper.

But C-depth is thin.

 

[artilector]

Its more about "why overcomplicate things if you don't have to?"

I think the Caps make a push to get a top 6 forward. Whether its a big deal for one with term left or a UFA remains to be seen.

I do think that they'd be willing to part with good futures for a guy with term but barring that they aren't going to make a 1st+Barber trade for Vermette for example.

So they either go all in for an ROR type player or just go for a Santorelli/Winnik type for a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

I don't believe they touch the D. Just my opinion. If they bring a forward in then at least one forward will be going out be it Chimera/MJ or someone else.

I actually agree that the Caps are likely to just make a small upgrade and/or depth trade and are unlikely to mess with D, especially considering injuries to the young guys.

But just to discuss what the Caps are likely to do (e.g. Winnik) is boring! That's why we discuss things that we think they should do or consider (e.g. Helm for Green). That's why the two scenarios are not really comparable -- they express two different modalities in relation to Caps' potential moves. I should go clear snow from my driveway, but I am more likely to go get another beer from the fridge -- no contradiction

 

[artilector]

Bergenheim is one of those Finns that seem really annoying to play against, sisu and all that.

I approve.

As a replacement for Laich

 

[strungout]

Im going with Santorelli for a pick.

Ovie - Backstrom - Mojo
Santorelli - Kuznetsov - Brouwer
Laich - Fehr - Ward
Chimera - Beagle - Wilson

Bura and Latta as the extras

Pray Orlov is ready....

Orpik - Carlson
Alzner - Niskanen
Orlov - Green
Hillen