Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[RandyHolt]

He is great at 3v3 OT/during empty net situations and he is 2nd best forward defensively in top-6 (along with Oshie), but you can make an argument that he is currently Caps worst offensive top-9 forward (not even top-6).

Great work presenting the stat facts as usual, Doc Langway

 

[artilector]

Lets count how many top-9 wingers we have.

Ovechkin
Johansson
Oshie UFA
Williams UFA
Burakovsky RFA
Connolly RFA
Vrana
Wilson

I think they are in a much tougher situation concerning the defense. Orlov needs to be protected without contract and with good stats (I presume). Alzner needs to be signed after expansion to a pricey contract. Orpik needs to be traded. Schmidt is also without contract.

Williams for another year seems much more possible right now than Oshie to a long contract.

So I'd still think about trading Winnik and getting a middle-6 winger on a contract beyond 2017 (at deadline). Connolly will go 4LW temporarily and Oshie will be a rental.

PS: Resigned Bura will go top-6 next season, hard to argue with that, right?

PPS: Oshie and Williams know this is the last run with current team, one way or another. They will be playing at "110%". This is very good. I hope another C in Eller will help to offset potential Backs/Kuzy's fail/injury.

PPPS: GMBM did very good in the summer. Eller's 3,5M will be off the books right in time to extend that useless guy Carlson to 7M contract.

Agree regarding Williams & Oshie. As nice a player as Oshie is, Caps would probably need to jump through major hoops to fit him in somehow...

Why get a non-rental middle-6 winger? Cap is already a difficult problem..

Bura in the top-6... yes, but who knows.. the interesting thing about the current 3rd line is that they look great together and have not looked particularly great with anybody else. If Connolly stays, maybe it will make sense to just continue keeping them together, and try Wilson/Vrana in the top-6 empty spot(s).

Carlson has done the Caps a favor by keeping Orlov away from PP and making him a bit less expensive. Next year Orlov should return the favor by keeping Carlson from PP to make him a bit less expensive, too!

 

[Holtbyisms]

Mojo's lack of production since his goal scoring dropped off doesn't concern me much. That second line has been ROLLING. If he's playing his part in that without showing up on the stat sheet I'm fine with that. Keep on keeping on Mojo.

 

[twabby]

I'm all in favor of re-signing Williams. Even given his age I think he is going to provide tremendous value over his next contract given his production hasn't dropped in his mid 30s. He'll probably get half the AAV as Oshie will and while he's probably not quite as good as Oshie, he's close.

8-19-65
90-92-14
10-20-13
UFA/Hershey guy-83-43

That's still a very good forward corps going into next season, in particular the center depth is excellent. Obviously there are some questions about whether 13 and 65 can fill those RW roles but it doesn't seem outlandish right now. Maybe Beagle gets taken by McPhee but I'd rank Schmidt and Grubauer ahead of him for now.

 

[Corby78]

I have to disagree with some of you. I think Oshie is way more valuable then people are saying. To me he seems to be a key guy who comes through at big moments. And that top line has been the most consistent and balanced since Ovie has been here IMO. I would much rather replace Wilson/MaJo with cheaper versions or with Hershey moves and keep TJ.

But of course I say all of this pre-playoffs. A lot will probably change depending on how that goes.

 

[Holtbyisms]

I have to disagree with some of you. I think Oshie is way more valuable then people are saying. To me he seems to be a key guy who comes through at big moments. And that top line has been the most consistent and balanced since Ovie has been here IMO. I would much rather replace Wilson/MaJo with cheaper versions or with Hershey moves and keep TJ.

But of course I say all of this pre-playoffs. A lot will probably change depending on how that goes.

I'm 100% on board with you. Osh is a **** ton more than just a 25 goal scorer. He's a leader by example, hits people, backchecks, throws himself all over the ice with reckless abandonment. Hell, he'll drop 'em if need be, he's done it before. He's a ****ing beast. Him leaving sets us back a very very long way.

 

[artilector]

I'm all in favor of re-signing Williams. Even given his age I think he is going to provide tremendous value over his next contract given his production hasn't dropped in his mid 30s. He'll probably get half the AAV as Oshie will and while he's probably not quite as good as Oshie, he's close.

8-19-65
90-92-14
10-20-13
UFA/Hershey guy-83-43

That's still a very good forward corps going into next season, in particular the center depth is excellent. Obviously there are some questions about whether 13 and 65 can fill those RW roles but it doesn't seem outlandish right now. Maybe Beagle gets taken by McPhee but I'd rank Schmidt and Grubauer ahead of him for now.

What about Mojo, though? I.e. it's not clear to me why Caps should automatically keep Mojo and let Oshie go. Yes, Mojo is under contract and is cheaper, but one can reasonably make the argument that Oshie is a better player/fit (in terms of fit -- think how hard it's been to find a half-decent RW fit for Ovi/Backstrom).

Plus (and granted this is an angle not many might consider) if Oshie leaves and you keep Mojo, Caps add nothing; on the other hand, if Oshie is re-signed, and Mojo is traded, Caps get something for Mojo, e.g. a cheaper young player that can fill a hole, or just futures -- still something. Or, what if Caps can re-sign Oshie, and then get McPhee to take Mojo+Orpik (whereas a UFA Oshie will likely find a better team than Vegas)?

edit: At the same time, I do agree that with several of these players, a LOT depends on what happens in playoffs. Orlov/Schmidt/Alzner, Oshie/Williams/Mojo, the valuations can change significantly...

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I'd ditch Mojo if it meant we could keep Oshie. As Corby78 and Holtbyisms said before me, Oshie's importance to the team cannot be overstated. He is the elusive high end RW we've been looking for since Semin's departure.

 

[um]

Lets count how many top-9 wingers we have.

Ovechkin
Johansson
Oshie UFA
Williams UFA
Burakovsky RFA
Connolly RFA
Vrana
Wilson

These are massive stretches. Connolly's had a nice month and half but thats it, even then he's only had like 6 points in 2017. Vrana isn't even an NHL player. And Wilson, well no not even close.

 

[Holtbyisms]

I'd ditch Mojo if it meant we could keep Oshie. As Corby78 and Holtbyisms said before me, Oshie's importance to the team cannot be overstated. He is the elusive high end RW we've been looking for since Semin's departure.

ily (and everyone who agrees)

Oshie is like the ultimate winger for Ovechkin and Backstrom. There's very few others who could do the same. All the things that Ovechkin and Backstrom don't do. Oshie does. He took Chris Clark linemate to a whole new level.

 

[twabby]

I'd ditch Mojo for Oshie too, but it's not that simple. Oshie is going to want term most likely and I'd be hesitant paying him $6M+ until he's in his late 30s. Also there's no guarantee he still won't get a better offer elsewhere. I'd certainly be talking with his agent but I'm not very optimistic.

 

[sycamore]

I have to disagree with some of you. I think Oshie is way more valuable then people are saying. To me he seems to be a key guy who comes through at big moments. And that top line has been the most consistent and balanced since Ovie has been here IMO. I would much rather replace Wilson/MaJo with cheaper versions or with Hershey moves and keep TJ.

But of course I say all of this pre-playoffs. A lot will probably change depending on how that goes.

I have to agree with the Oshie supporters. He's been an enormous surprise since being traded from St Louis (Remember Blues fans telling us he would fade during the playoffs?). Caps should do what they can to keep him.

 

[txpd]

Remember when we thought around here that Kozy(not Kuzy) was the glue around here? Might be that Oshie is. I would give up Jojo to keep Oshie in a heartbeat. The problem with Oshie isn't his cap hit. Its the term required.

If the Caps don't make any noise in the playoffs this season, Williams is gone. Doesn't matter the offer. He came here for another cup and will leave to find one.
If they do make noise, then Williams stays for the same reason and they find a way to work it out.

Might be Oshie feels the same. I guess there are worse things than having a declining veteran that is also a fan favorite on a contract that gets uglier as the years go by.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Remember when we thought around here that Kozy(not Kuzy) was the glue around here? Might be that Oshie is. I would give up Jojo to keep Oshie in a heartbeat. The problem with Oshie isn't his cap hit. Its the term required.

If the Caps don't make any noise in the playoffs this season, Williams is gone. Doesn't matter the offer. He came here for another cup and will leave to find one.
If they do make noise, then Williams stays for the same reason and they find a way to work it out.

Might be Oshie feels the same. I guess there are worse things than having a declining veteran that is also a fan favorite on a contract that gets uglier as the years go by.

No, that's not it. I believe he came here because his wife is from Washington or a city close to DC, not just to win another Cup. Hey, if we lose Williams, so be it, he's easier to replace than Oshie.

 

[PB12]

No, that's not it. I believe he came here because his wife is from Washington or a city close to DC, not just to win another Cup. Hey, if we lose Williams, so be it, he's easier to replace than Oshie.

This. Look at the RWs in FA for the next four years. It isn't exactly deep. The only guys i see are in the next five years are Atkinson, Eberle, and Wheeler.

 

[txpd]

No, that's not it. I believe he came here because his wife is from Washington or a city close to DC, not just to win another Cup. Hey, if we lose Williams, so be it, he's easier to replace than Oshie.

who are you talking about? Oshie or JW?

 

[SpinningEdge]

I mean who isn't tradable? Maybe orpik? That's it?

So Caps CAN keep who they want - it's just who it is.

We can't look at it like "we'll we only have 10 million in cap space so we can't spend 14 to keep our free agents.

It's not like that.

If Oshie is more important than Eller, Johansson, etc - then those contracts can easily be moved to make the space.

Sure, we may have to replace Johansson and Eller for entry level contracts, but Vrana and Sanford may be able to do it by next season.

This is why having movable contracts and NHL ready prospects is so important - because you can keep who you want even if cap is tight by just replacing other players via trade, etc.

Oshie to me is worth more than Johansson and Eller combined. If Caps can't "afford Oshie because he's getting 6 million - then they need to make it work by trading Johansson and Eller and having Oshie/Vrana replace that cap hit.

So cap and upcoming free agents is important - but Caps are also in position to pick their top 6 forwards they want - and their top 3 d they want for the future - and find a way to make it work.

Ovi, Backstrom, Oshie, burt, Kuzy, and vrana all will make about 32 million if Kuzy/Oshie/Burt combine for about 15 million - which I think is doable. Carlson/Alzner/nisky/orpik Colvin for 19 if Alzner gets avout a 5 mil per deal.

Add Holtby at 6 and you have your top 6, top 4, and goalie in place with avout 15 million to spend.... that's enough for bottom 2 defenders AND bottom 6 forwards. It'll be tight - but doable while losing no real key pieces.

 

[Raikkonen]

Ovi got slower this year. He will be even slower in the coming seasons too. Oshie is playing for his lifetime contract now. He's not that old yet. But signing him for say 5 years means we're going to see even less effective 8-19-77 line at ES. Oshie will be slower as well, he's less durable and not exactly big.

I think there is a good chance someone else will become 1RW.

If he's ready to sign for less - good. But if he's gonna cash in - this is questionable as hell.

League is getting faster and out top line is not. Trotz could use some other scheme and it will become less Oshie-based.

 

[Raikkonen]

Why get a non-rental middle-6 winger? Cap is already a difficult problem..

We're losing someone to expansion and someone to big payday too. If we're ready to pay #1 pick and some prospects for deadline acquistion (and we should be ready this year easily) why not for contracted guy?

Guy under contract (like Oshie was) is a better value, he's not overpaid yet (supposedly).

Like I said, we can count 8 guys for top-9 wings next year and lose 3 of them (Oshie, Williams and say Wilson to Vegas). Expanded market will dictate even bigger prices and we will end up overpaying for some guy who could be not as good (as we can try to snatch at deadline).

That's my logic.

I assume GMBM already knows what kind of deal Oshie wants so if it's out of our budget he could consider him as rental already and try to add his future replacement in one player.

If GMBM wants to wait and see the results of Cup run... he could be in a really tough spot after that. Is it a reasonable MO? Idk. Think not.

 

[Raikkonen]

These are massive stretches. Connolly's had a nice month and half but thats it, even then he's only had like 6 points in 2017. Vrana isn't even an NHL player. And Wilson, well no not even close.

If you think about next season's Caps as a powerhouse - yes, these are stretches.

If you think Caps 2017/18 is less good than Caps 2016/17 - then it's suddenly normal state of things. Wilson, Connolly and Vrana as possible top-9 forwards I mean.

I hope there is still at least Williams after summer so one of them won't be in top-9... but nor 2M Wilson neither Vrana shouldn't be on the 4th line honestly.

I expect something like this:

Bura -> top-6 winger
Mojo = top-6 winger
Vrana -> 3rd line winger
Connolly -> middle-6 winger
Wilson -> lost to expansion or bottom-6 winger

This is cheap enough. Much less good than Oshie/Williams but everything is under control (and some cap space to bank next season).

Getting them a good top-6 winger will cost, and the first move to provide such possibility is to trade Orpik. I'll believe it after the fact.


PS: I tell you Beagle isnt getting younger. We need competent physical PK specialists, so Wilson is useful player anyway as 3RW or 4RW.

 

[sycamore]

Ovi got slower this year. He will be even slower in the coming seasons too. Oshie is playing for his lifetime contract now. He's not that old yet. But signing him for say 5 years means we're going to see even less effective 8-19-77 line at ES. Oshie will be slower as well, he's less durable and not exactly big.

I think there is a good chance someone else will become 1RW.

If he's ready to sign for less - good. But if he's gonna cash in - this is questionable as hell.

League is getting faster and out top line is not. Trotz could use some other scheme and it will become less Oshie-based.

The one thing with Oshie though that would be difficult to replace is his chemistry with OV and Backstrom. You could slot in a hugely talented, young winger alongside 8 and 19, but if he doesn't have any chemistry with them, his talent is really not going to matter much. In this regard, Oshie is a lot more valuable than some people think.

 

[Raikkonen]

In this regard, Oshie is a lot more valuable than some people think.

A short list of guys who are "a lot more valuable" for Caps:

Oshie
Alzner
Kuznetsov
Burakovsky
Orlov
Carlson

In a small span of 1 year each of these guys has to be extended for ~2-3M more than he gets now.

Actually, I would argue Oshie is not top of the list of irreplaceable ones from those 6. It's a complex problem.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

who are you talking about? Oshie or JW?

Williams.

Basically there's two scenarios here. In the first scenario, we lose as usual in the 2nd round and we are able to field a pretty strong team next year despite losing at least one key player. In the second scenario, we win the Stanley Cup and we can only sign a few players because winning the Cup puts us deep into cap hell.

The importance of winning it all this year cannot be overstated.

 

[Hivemind]

If Oshie is willing to sign a team friendly deal, you absolutely keep him. If he's gunning for an Eriksson/Ladd/Okposo-type contract, it would be hard to justify it.

 

[Brian23]

I look at Oshie kind of how I look at Orpik now. If it takes 7 million a year to get it done, and you can do it for 4 years, then so be it. When Orpik was signed, in my head I just thought he had to make it to the last year or two off his deal with solid play and then he can be moved. A guy in the last year of a large contract isn't that hard to be rid of, there's always a team looking for veterans to get them to the cap floor.

The sticking point with Oshie is time, in my opinion, and not money. If we're talking 5+, you gotta bring the dollars down. If he wants 7 million, we can talk for 4 years. The issue is someone else out there is going to be willing to give him both I think.