Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[Brian23]

Basically there's two scenarios here. In the first scenario, we lose as usual in the 2nd round and we are able to field a pretty strong team next year despite losing at least one key player. In the second scenario, we win the Stanley Cup and we can only sign a few players because winning the Cup puts us deep into cap hell.

I really hate this line of thought. Whether we win or not, you're still left with the same guys without a contract probably looking for similar deals to if they hadn't won. What does winning the cup do to take us any deeper into "cap hell" then losing in the 2nd? Nothing really.

 

[Hivemind]

Winning a Cup actually put Chicago deeper into cap hell after their first Cup. But we don't have a bunch of ELCs with performance bonuses based off of winning post season awards like they did.

 

[Sam Spade]

Seriously, if the Washington Capitals win a Stanley Cup who the hell cares about next year!?!?!?

Or the year after, or the year after that.

After the banner raising I doubt I would even watch a game.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I really hate this line of thought. Whether we win or not, you're still left with the same guys without a contract probably looking for similar deals to if they hadn't won. What does winning the cup do to take us any deeper into "cap hell" then losing in the 2nd? Nothing really.

It's obvious. Winning the Cup means everybody asks for more money. Let's take Kuznetsov for example. Right now, with the way he's been playing and his recent return to form, he should ask for $6.5-7M annually. Imagine we win the Cup and Kuznetsov also wins the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP. He is now asking for $7.5-8M instead. Players that won a Cup recently earn more than their counterparts who haven't. This is why half of the Blackhawks players from the past 6-7 years are overpaid like hell.

Toews, Bickell, Shaw, Ladd, Seabrook and many others are overpaid for their "playoff experience".

 

[Ridley Simon]

On a totally different topic...

I'd love to see the Caps add Patrick Sharp at the TDL. We don't need him, honestly....but what a luxury to have, and he's a playoff performer....to say the least.

He's prob going to be too expensive, and the team seems to need a Dman first.

 

[Revelation]

It's obvious. Winning the Cup means everybody asks for more money. Let's take Kuznetsov for example. Right now, with the way he's been playing and his recent return to form, he should ask for $6.5-7M annually. Imagine we win the Cup and Kuznetsov also wins the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP. He is now asking for $7.5-8M instead. Players that won a Cup recently earn more than their counterparts who haven't. This is why half of the Blackhawks players from the past 6-7 years are overpaid like hell.

Toews, Bickell, Shaw, Ladd, Seabrook and many others are overpaid for their "playoff experience".

They can ask for whatever they want, doesn't mean they'll get it.

Only problem would be Kuznetsov getting a Conn Smythe while on his ELC and the bonuses from that.

Caps have over 12 million in Johansson + Orpik + Winnik that they could shed without the team missing a beat next year if they're the least bit crafty in replacing them.

And Ladd was actually underpaid his entire career until this year.

 

[Raikkonen]

Only problem would be Kuznetsov getting a Conn Smythe while on his ELC and the bonuses from that.

And Ladd was actually underpaid his entire career until this year.

Kuzy isn't on ELC.

And... Don't you think Oshie was actually underpaid his entire career until next season?

 

[Revelation]

Kuzy isn't on ELC.

And... Don't you think Oshie was actually underpaid his entire career until next season?

Most players are underpaid when signed off RFA unless it's Dale Tallon signing them.

 

[txpd]

not sure I see why Sharp would be expensive. I think he would be good offensive depth if he could be gotten. Not sure I would replace either of Connolly or Burakovsky or Johansson to make him a spot in the lineup until they are cold in the playoffs.

 

[Revelation]

Wonder if we could fit both Sharp and Oduya (with some retention from them) somehow

Would be just about perfect depth for a long playoff run.

 

[billcook]

Not sure I would replace either of Connolly or Burakovsky or Johansson to make him a spot in the lineup until they are cold in the playoffs.

Think about it this way, you have three top-9 left wingers and with Sharp you have four and one of them can play center.

Wonder if we could fit both Sharp and Oduya (with some retention from them) somehow

Would be just about perfect depth for a long playoff run.

Sign me up. Oduya is notable improvement over Chorney and in playoffs can replace either Orlov(rd)/Schmidt(ld) in case of poor perfomance.

 

[Revelation]

Brian Boyle would also be a pretty savvy audition if he could be had cheaply, his cap is easier to fit and he steps up pretty good in the playoffs for a bottom 6er. He's been no worse than Sharp this year

Vrana/Beagle stepping up as middle 6 insurance.

Boyle as 4th line/Eller insurance.

Boyle-Eller-Wilson/Winnik could also be a nightmare big guy grind line.

 

[billcook]

The more I think about Sharp option the more I like it.

Good in playoffs, decent defensively (good fit for system 'wink'), can play anywhere in middle-6 both at wing and center.

Yes please.

Brian Boyle would also be a pretty savvy audition if he could be had cheaply, his cap is easier to fit and he steps up pretty good in the playoffs for a bottom 6er. He's been no worse than Sharp this year

Vrana/Beagle stepping up as middle 6 insurance.

Boyle as 4th line/Eller insurance.

Boyle-Eller-Wilson/Winnik could also be a nightmare big guy grind line.

Wouldn't mess with 4th line (Caps most consistent trio this season) and it is not kind of improvement that will put them over the top.

 

[Revelation]

IDK both Rangers and Devils went to the SCF thanks to their 4th lines effectively taking over as high end difference making 3rd lines and Boyle drove one of those 4th lines.

Sharp is 6 million, Boyle is 2 million.

 

[Melkor]

Caps dont need Patrick Sharp. They need D. You can bring in here whatever numbers you want on how good team's D is but I've seen it all the time in the playoffs: Caps' D lacks something critically needed year after year when it matters most. Be it speed, safer plays or minimum of game-breaking mistakes, The Caps' D always finds something to be bad at. They need a really good top-4 D with skating at least a level above than Alzner/Carlson/Orpiks. They're kinda okay at offence, I wouldnt be worried much about that.

 

[Revelation]

Caps dont need Patrick Sharp. They need D. You can bring in here whatever numbers you want on how good team's D is but I saw it all the time in the playoffs: Caps' D lacks something critically needed all the time. Be it speed, safer plays or minimum of game-breaking mistakes, The Caps' D always finds something to be bad at. They need a really good top-4 D with skating at least a level above than Alzner/Carlson/Orpiks. They're kinda okay at offence, I wouldnt be worried much about that.

Yeah D should be priority since Vrana can take over for F better than Chorney or any Hershey guy can take over for D.

Brendan Smith and Johnny Oduya would be nice as fast guys that raise their game in the playoffs, Seidenberg too (probably preferable given his resume and play this year plus the ability to play both sides) but Isles won't trade him unless they drop out of the playoff hunt.

 

[Melkor]

Yeah D should be priority since Vrana can take over for F better than Chorney or any Hershey guy can take over for D.

Brendan Smith and Johnny Oduya would be nice as fast guys that raise their game in the playoffs, Seidenberg too (probably preferable given his resume and play this year plus the ability to play both sides) but Isles won't trade him unless they drop out of the playoff hunt.

None of those strike me as a solution to the problem. I'd say Shattenkirk would have reduced their overall lack of skating ability at least. Not sure about mistakes though.

One more thing that annoys me every given deadline: Caps always go for depth and add some declining nonames that cant do anything more than eat nachos in press box or go out on the ice and look as a worst player in the lineup. The last really good addition during a season was Feds. And thats it. When you lose in the playoffs 10 years in a row, i guess you should kinda learn the lesson and go freakin all in at deadline to get better. And do not give a crap on chemistry and all. Get great player in your lineup for futures and thats all you need to do. Some GMs can do that, Caps' ones seem to overthink things when they gotta push. Not Erat-like push though.

 

[billcook]

Sharp is 6 million

In full season, not after deadline (less than 1/4 of cap hit).

Caps dont need Patrick Sharp. They need D. You can bring in here whatever numbers you want on how good team's D is but I've seen it all the time in the playoffs: Caps' D lacks something critically needed year after year when it matters most. Be it speed, safer plays or minimum of game-breaking mistakes, The Caps' D always finds something to be bad at. They need a really good top-4 D with skating at least a level above than Alzner/Carlson/Orpiks. They're kinda okay at offence, I wouldnt be worried much about that.

5v5 offense wins championships and it has been true for every team post-expansion (even for '95 Devils or '04 Tampa).


Their D has been the best at preventing goals at 5v5 for three seasons (yes, including playoffs), if your best rebuttal is 'I don't care about stats... I said so and so', I don't think there could be constructive discussion.

 

[Melkor]

In full season, not after deadline (less than 1/4 of cap hit).




5v5 offense wins championships and it has been true for every team post-expansion (even for '95 Devils or '04 Tampa).


Their D has been the best at preventing goals at 5v5 for three seasons (yes, including playoffs), if your best rebuttal is 'I don't care about stats... I said so and so', I don't think there could be constructive discussion.

My best rebuttal is my 'eye test'. When I see something and it's bad, I call it as 'bad' till proven otherwise when you gotta do or die. Caps 5 on 5 are okay, dont have any problems with their O. They do not have depth on D. I still do not believe in Orlov as a playoff performer, same goes for Schmidt. They've been horrfic last year and they both almost 26. I dont buy that somebody gonna make drastic improvements at that age in less than a year to go from bums to studs in competition of best of the best. No difference-makers among defenders at all. Carlson seemed to get goal on every shot against Flyers but overall he's not a true #1 D. Orlov has the best offensive ability among them but he's gonna be forced to play more simple comes spring. As a result, I'd say he's gonna generate nothing more than negative impact on team's game.

 

[billcook]

Caps 5 on 5 are okay, dont have any problems with their O.

See, this is where we disagree. Caps 5v5 offense has not been good in playoffs under Trotz, only in regular season.

1.65 goals for per 60 minutes in '16 (13th) and 2.04 in '15 (8th).

PIT - 2015-2016 - 2.56 (2nd)
CHI - 2014-2015 - 2.30 (3rd)
L.A - 2013-2014 - 2.84 (2nd)
CHI - 2012-2013 - 2.45 (3rd)
L.A - 2011-2012 - 2.24 (2nd)
BOS - 2010-2011 - 3.08 (2nd)
CHI - 2009-2010 - 2.80 (4th)
PIT - 2008-2009 - 2.64 (2nd)
DET - 2007-2008 - 2.56 (2nd)

 

[Melkor]

See, this is where we disagree. Caps 5v5 offense has not been good in playoffs under Trotz, only in regular season.

1.65 goals for per 60 minutes in '16 (13th) and 2.04 in '15 (8th).

PIT - 2015-2016 - 2.56 (2nd)
CHI - 2014-2015 - 2.30 (3rd)
L.A - 2013-2014 - 2.84 (2nd)
CHI - 2012-2013 - 2.45 (3rd)
L.A - 2011-2012 - 2.24 (2nd)
BOS - 2010-2011 - 3.08 (2nd)
CHI - 2009-2010 - 2.80 (4th)
PIT - 2008-2009 - 2.64 (2nd)
DET - 2007-2008 - 2.56 (2nd)

To me its coaching thing. It just cant be good and then all of a sudden bad. The lineup is alright, it's up to coaches to make adjustments to keep winning. What were Pens till Sullivan came? Simply the mess. And then they called up those undersized nonames like Sheary, Rust etc. and became a machine. Do you believe that the deal was the players? I don't.

 

[billcook]

To me its coaching thing. It just cant be good and then all of a sudden bad. The lineup is alright, it's up to coaches to make adjustments to keep winning. What were Pens till Sullivan came? Simply the mess. And then they called up those undersized nonames like Sheary, Rust etc. and became a machine. Do you believe that the deal was the players? I don't.

BMGM didn't made any indications they are about to make big trade at deadline and Trotz is obviously staying.

Caps are done and we can stop watching for remainder of the season/playoffs?

I don't get it.

 

[Melkor]

BMGM didn't made any indications they are about to make big trade at deadline and Trotz is obviously staying.

Caps are done and we can stop watching for remainder of the season/playoffs?

I don't get it.

You can watch, I dont force anyone That's just the opinion: the current defence not gonna win a thing for D.C. And Trotz has got to adjust their offense for much tougher and competitive games.

 

[billcook]

You can watch, I dont force anyone That's just the opinion: the current defence not gonna win a thing for D.C. And Trotz has got to adjust their offense for much tougher and competitive games.

I understand your pessimism, just disagree with rationale of it.

 

[artilector]

Yep, offense drying up is still the main concern in playoffs, IMO.

However, fitting in a potential forward acquisition/rental is tricky -- nobody really deserves to sit right now, and the lines are working quite well as units, 3rd line in particular.

So it seems that if the Caps were to acquire a good player, they might have to stick him on the 4th line (sitting Wilson or Winnik), at least until somebody really falters in playoffs -- and at that point the player will have to re-adjust quickly.

It's a good problem to have, but still...

Or, I don't know, maybe instead of getting a top-6 player to play on the 4th line, Caps should look for a super-grinder to upgrade the 4th line (Wilson/Winnik) while retaining the overall identity of that line?

As for defense, just get depth, as usual, unless some really great deal falls in their lap.

All this assuming there's cap space to play with at the deadline...