A SERIOUS DISCUSSION - The Goalies

[What the Faulk]

I would call Khudobin great last year. 10 more strong games and he probably would have gotten some Vezina votes.

 

[VAcaniac]

Not only is Cam not consistent in the season, but he's not consistent in a game. He'll stand on his head for a while and then let in a softie or two.

Khudobin had some of the most consistent good goaltending last year that we've seen in a longgg time.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Not only is Cam not consistent in the season, but he's not consistent in a game. He'll stand on his head for a while and then let in a softie or two.

It's what you get with Ward's style. The same criticism has been laid on some of the best goalies in history (not to imply Ward is one of them).

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It's what you get with Ward's style. The same criticism has been laid on some of the best goalies in history (not to imply Ward is one of them).

I've always thought his style should lead to more consistent goaltending. To me, guys with a more athletic and less fundamentally sound mechanics were more apt to have inconsistency as they were more frequently out of position and had to recover. But guys like Ward that were more technically sound and efficient in their motions, were less apt to suffer from the same inconsistencies because they were usually in the right spot.

To me (speculation on), it seems that Ward's problems with letting in softies are more mental, as if he has a let down concentration wise and less to do with his style of play. As you said though, even the best goalies have bad games or bad periods as they need to be very mentally strong for every minute of every game. And we don't see every goal that other teams goalies give up to know how often it happens with them so we can't know really how Ward compares in that "letting in softies" category.

 

[cptjeff]

Curious why you say that, as the numbers indicate he was well above average?

He had the 5th best SV% in the NHL last season and better than ANY season Cam Ward ever had.
His GAA was 12th in the NHL on a team that was 21st in the league for shots against and better than ANY season Cam Ward ever had.
He won 56% of the games he started on a team that won only 44% of it's games.

It may not qualify as great, but he was well above average last season. I'm not saying he'll do the same this year, and I do acknowledge that he only played 36 games, but I don't agree with the assessment that he was only an average starter last year.

EDIT: Nor do I understand how you can conclude that his PEAK isn't as good as Ward's peak, particularly given his small body of work.

Maybe we haven't seen Khodobin's peak yet, but he's 28. It's unlikely he'll develop significantly further. From what I've seen of them so far, Ward's peak is better. I'm not saying Khodobin is bad by any means- I would put him at about 12-15 in the league. That is not nothing, and he can deliver that performance consistently, which is incredibly important.

But I don't go by stats with goalies, I try to watch them as much as I can. There are just way too many team factors that affect the stats of goalies for me to find them all that useful. In some cases a bad D can make numbers look better, in some cases worse, and it's also highly dependent on style of play and how a defense is configured. I watch them play, and try to see how we'll they're handling the routine stuff, and on the harder stuff, the degree of difficulty in the saves they're consistently making, then I try to look at the field and see who I would rank as better. In no exact order, Lundquist, Quick, Rask, Rinne, Anderson, Miller, Varlomov, Bishop, Price, Schnider are all better or comparable goalies. The highest I think you can rank Khodobin is 8-10. Cam at his best ranks considerably higher than that. Cam at his best outperforms all time greats in their prime during 7 game series. Cam at his best wins a cup for a team with a fairly average defense against some of the best in the league, and carries an average team that was lucky to get into the playoffs into the conference finals. I have nothing against Khodobin, he's a quality NHL starter who brings quite a lot of consistency, and those are not easy to come by. There are maybe 20 guys who really qualify as solid starting goalies in this league.

Khodobin will make every routine save, and many difficult ones on a routine basis. But anything above a certain degree of difficulty, and he'll get consistently beat. Elite goalies make impossible saves on a routine basis- Khodobin doesn't really do that very often. Ward does- Ward's problem is that he'll make the impossible stops right up there with or better than the guys winning vezinas, but then he'll let routine stuff in. When Ward manages to flip that switch inside his head and keep all the routine stuff out too, he's jaw droppingly good. Khodobin doesn't seem to have that switch- he does what he does most every game. Outstanding in his consistency. A really great shot or play that Ward or Lundquist might stop is going to beat him most of the time, but pretty much everything below that quality he's going to keep out of the net, night in, night out.

 

[VAcaniac]

He definitely thinks too much in his head, not that it doesn't happen to every athlete. I think the shootout is a testament to that.

 

[cptjeff]

To me (speculation on), it seems that Ward's problems with letting in softies are more mental, as if he has a let down concentration wise and less to do with his style of play. As you said though, even the best goalies have bad games or bad periods as they need to be very mentally strong for every minute of every game. And we don't see every goal that other teams goalies give up to know how often it happens with them so we can't know really how Ward compares in that "letting in softies" category.

We don't see every goal, but we do get a decent sample of other goalies around the league. Ward has definitely been higher than average in that department recently. I think that's dead on about it being mental, though. So much of goaltending is about focus and being able to react, and to do that, you have to let your unconscious mind-your instincts- do most of the work. Your unconscious mind is much faster than your conscious one, and as you practice more and more, you're learning the skills unconsciously, not consciously. If you start thinking about how you're going to do something, in that moment, you lose a lot of that learning, and go back to what your conscious mind knows- when you've been learning mostly unconsciously since age 10 or so. You react more slowly and with less skill. If you get a moment of fear or doubt and start thinking about how well you're playing, you'll play worse. When you've had a poor stretch of games or bad goals, it's really easy to get those moments of panic and doubt where you stop trusting your instincts, and it becomes a really nasty cycle. Good play builds confidence and more good play, bad play breeds doubt and more bad play. Sports psychologists are a thing for a reason- the fact that it's a mental problem doesn't mean it's easy to solve.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

What makes you say that?

Stuff

Pessimism mostly. This team is not allowed to have nice things. So I'm betting that our offense will be acceptable or above average next year, and the defense will be passable, but I expect our goaltending to fall off a cliff.

 

[What the Faulk]

Cptjeff's post reminds me how glad I am to not have to hear "Kordoban" anymore.

 

[cptjeff]

Cptjeff's post reminds me how glad I am to not have to hear "Kordoban" anymore.

I have shoes in that color.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I still disagree with your initial statement cptjeff. I watched him a lot last year and he was fantastic making both routine and difficult saves behind a team that frankly was below average defensively.

Now, if you are asking me if he has done it long enough, done it in the playoffs, shown that he can elevate his game in a 7 game series, shown a level of play over a longer period of time so that he can be mentioned in the same breath as some of those others that you list above him? No, he hasn't and on that front, I'd agree with you and I wouldn't put him in a category with those guys based on one 36 game season.

But your statement was he played like a decent starter last year, about average and that's where I disagree. For me, by any measure (watching him, stats, wins, etc...) he was well above average last year.

I am by no means predicting he'll repeat that this year or that he'll be better than Ward this year or anything, just simply stating that he was a well above average goalie last year.

 

[cptjeff]

I still disagree with your initial statement cptjeff. I watched him a lot last year and he was fantastic making both routine and difficult saves behind a team that frankly was below average defensively.

Now, if you are asking me if he has done it long enough, done it in the playoffs, shown that he can elevate his game in a 7 game series, shown a level of play over a longer period of time so that he can be mentioned in the same breath as some of those others that you list above him? No, he hasn't and on that front, I'd agree with you and I wouldn't put him in a category with those guys based on one 36 game season.

But your statement was he played like a decent starter last year, about average and that's where I disagree. For me, by any measure (watching him, stats, wins, etc...) he was well above average last year.

I am by no means predicting he'll repeat that this year or that he'll be better than Ward this year or anything, just simply stating that he was a well above average goalie last year.

I think you may be attaching too much meaning to a bit of offhanded phrasing, so let me ask you this. Numerically, among NHL starters, where would you rank Khodobin, and what's the peak rating you would give him (the highest ranking you think you could make an honest case for)? I've said 15-8 by that metric, and I'm just curious to see if your numbers are that far off, or if this is just semantic.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

i'd rank khudobin somewhere between 1-60 tbh

 

[tarheelhockey]

Looking forward to rolling our sick Muse/Altshuller combo at some point.

 

[TheOllieC]

Looking forward to rolling our sick Muse/Altshuller combo at some point.

MacIntyre though.

 

[tarheelhockey]

MacIntyre though.

Will be injured.

 

[Anton H Christ]

My vote is with khudobin but only if we can say his name as Ryu from street fighter would.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think you may be attaching too much meaning to a bit of offhanded phrasing

That may be, as I can only go by what you wrote and what you wrote (that he was an average starting goaltender last year) is what I disagree with. It's not semantics and not much more complicated than that. It's just me disagreeing with something you wrote and providing reasons and statistics to back it up. If what you meant to say is that he won't be able to repeat what he did this last season and you think over a longer stretch he'll just be an average goaltender, then that's a different discussion.

, so let me ask you this. Numerically, among NHL starters, where would you rank Khodobin,

I can't rank him because, as I stated earlier, he has 1 season of 36 games under his belt. For me, it's impossible to rank a guy like that against guys that have shown multiple seasons under their belt. I have no idea if he can repeat the performance from last season, if he can stay healthy and his play not degrade after playing a full season of 50-60+ games. His performance last year was top 5-10 in the league IMO, but he'd have to show that type of performance over a longer period of time to be considered in that group of top guys.

and what's the peak rating you would give him (the highest ranking you think you could make an honest case for)?

He has shown he can be top 5-10 over a short stretch (36 game season) and if he can do that consistently over a longer period, then I'd say that's his peak. Khudobin is very athletic, has excellent anticipation/instincts, and very good lateral movement which allows him to recover very well (much better than Ward IMO). But as we discussed, much of goaltending is mental and what I don't know about Khudobin is can he handle a 50-60 game season and can he come up big when the team needs it (playoffs on the line, game 7, etc...)?

 

[nobuddy]

CMP's objectively correct goalie rankings:

1. Rask
2. Schneider
3. Lundqvist
4. Rinne
5. Price
6. Luongo
7. Bishop
8. Bernier
9. Quick
10. Bobrovsky
11. Varlamov
12. Khudobin
13. Lehtonen
14. Halak
15. Elliot

HM: Miller, Fleury, Smith, Anderson, Niemi

I would have Quick a lot higher in a one off game scenario. I love the guy to death but he's really not that great over a long season.

 

[TheOllieC]

CMP's objectively correct goalie rankings:

1. Rask
2. Schneider
3. Lundqvist
4. Rinne
5. Price
6. Luongo
7. Bishop
8. Bernier
9. Quick
10. Bobrovsky
11. Varlamov
12. Khudobin
13. Lehtonen
14. Halak
15. Elliot

HM: Miller, Fleury, Smith, Anderson, Niemi

I would have Quick a lot higher in a one off game scenario. I love the guy to death but he's really not that great over a long season.

Bobrovsky is better than Bernier, Bishop, Luongo and Schneider. Varlamov is overrated though.

 

[GinoLucia2217]

Voted Ward because I think that he will regain his younger years form and post something of a 2.3-2.5GAA while Doby comes back down a little bit with around a 2.5-2.7

Now this is ruling out the fact that Ward will likely end up getting hurt again this year.

This is my pessimistic classic canes guess work here. In reality. I think that there is a really good chance Khudobin posts numbers similar to last year or even better wouldn't be out of the question. But I just have a bad feeling for some reason. I don't know whether it's because of the new coaching but for some I just am thinking it may not be his year.

Counting on the bounce back 2015-016 Vezina though.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

CMP's objectively correct goalie rankings:

1. Rask
2. Schneider
3. Lundqvist
4. Rinne
5. Price
6. Luongo
7. Bishop
8. Bernier
9. Quick
10. Bobrovsky
11. Varlamov
12. Khudobin
13. Lehtonen
14. Halak
15. Elliot

HM: Miller, Fleury, Smith, Anderson, Niemi

I would have Quick a lot higher in a one off game scenario. I love the guy to death but he's really not that great over a long season.

I disagree with a lot of this.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I disagree with a lot of this.

As well you should. Having Lundqvist anywhere below 2nd is insane. Let alone below Schneider.

 

[nobuddy]

As well you should. Having Lundqvist anywhere below 2nd is insane. Let alone below Schneider.

Reputation slave.

Nobody with at least 100 appearances since 2010 has a better save percentage than Schneider at .928. I gave Rask the nod ahead of him because he's at a .927 and has more longevity. Cory Schneider is without a doubt the most underrated player in the league. He's done nothing but post elite stats and has only been put in bad situations, which is entirely out of his control.

Of note:

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/2010s-nhl-goalies-stats.html

Basically if you're using anything other than SV% to judge goalies, you're doing it wrong. Wins and GAA are team stats. Goalies own their SV%'s and the teams they play for have negligible effect on them over the long run. This has been shown and proven numerous times now.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I didn't say anything about disregarding SV%. But there is something to be said about longevity and consistency.

The one thing about SV% is that it's harder to maintain a high SV% over a greater period of games than it is over a smaller sample size, whether that's in a season or in a career. Thus, I value Lundqvist's .920 SV% over 500+ games higher than Schneider's .925 SV% over 143 games.

In addition, Schneider has yet to play a season's worth of what I would call a "starter's workload." The highest amount of games he's played in a season is 45. When you've got other goaltenders playing 65-70+ games and putting up similar numbers, those goaltenders are simply more impressive in my eyes, even if their SV% may be lower