A SERIOUS DISCUSSION: Alex Nedeljkovic

[The Stranger]

That said, I've been impressed with Ned. First, he's not nearly as "scrambly" as I remember. A lot of times, athletic goalies get labeled as a scrambler, out of position, chaotic, etc.., when in reality, it's their athleticism that allows them to move better than less athletic goalies making them appear to be scrambling, when it may not be the case. Still, Ned seems way more calm, composed and in control this year and his reflexes are so quick. Fun to watch.

Agreed that he's been fun to watch. His athleticism/movement is high-end for the NHL. His ability to play the puck is as well.

Also agree with the previous note from @geehaad that he's largely been "under-sold" because he's not an inch or two taller.

I've been hopeful for him and really enjoy seeing him have success this year.

The main things I've been watching are his ability to work in traffic, track pucks, and stay focused for 60 minutes. Early returns are not perfect, but they are very good.

 

[MinJaBen]

Alex has been playing well. His athleticism and skill has certainly been evident, and never in question, I think. However, I still think he is too small to play the position as a starter in this league. I think he can make a good backup that plays 20 to 30 games a year, but I don't think he'll succeed as a starter. One reason is that the high end players of this league will be able to pick the corners he has trouble covering due to his size. He'll get some of them, of course, but I think the shooters will win more times against him than they would against a similarly skilled larger player.

More importantly than that, though, is the disadvantage he has against the tips and deflections. No goalie can react fast enough to have any real chance against those "dirty" goals that more and more drive the league's scoring. The only real defence a goalie has against those is superior positioning...and shear size. A bigger goalie will statistically make those "saves" more frequently just by the fact that the random chance location of the deflection will have a higher probability of hitting the goalie instead of open space in the net compared to a smaller goalie. There is nothing Alex can do to improve his chances against those shots.

 

[sheriff bart]

That's otherwise known as "the Scott Darling Special".

What's a Darling up to now? I figure about 300

 

[The Stranger]

I still think he is too small to play the position as a starter in this league. I think he can make a good backup that plays 20 to 30 games a year, but I don't think he'll succeed as a starter. One reason is that the high end players of this league will be able to pick the corners he has trouble covering due to his size. He'll get some of them, of course, but I think the shooters will win more times against him than they would against a similarly skilled larger player.

There are plenty of guys right about his size playing well in the league (Grubauer, Raanta, Mrazek, Binnington, Halak, Dobby, etc.).

5'-11" Tim Thomas was winning Vezina Trophies just 10 years ago.

Lundqvist (who famously plays deep) and Quick have been dominant players in recent years and are just 1" taller.

 

[RibFrabcus]

Alex has been playing well. His athleticism and skill has certainly been evident, and never in question, I think. However, I still think he is too small to play the position as a starter in this league. I think he can make a good backup that plays 20 to 30 games a year, but I don't think he'll succeed as a starter. One reason is that the high end players of this league will be able to pick the corners he has trouble covering due to his size. He'll get some of them, of course, but I think the shooters will win more times against him than they would against a similarly skilled larger player.

More importantly than that, though, is the disadvantage he has against the tips and deflections. No goalie can react fast enough to have any real chance against those "dirty" goals that more and more drive the league's scoring. The only real defence a goalie has against those is superior positioning...and shear size. A bigger goalie will statistically make those "saves" more frequently just by the fact that the random chance location of the deflection will have a higher probability of hitting the goalie instead of open space in the net compared to a smaller goalie. There is nothing Alex can do to improve his chances against those shots.

Makes intuitive sense. Interestingly enough it's the shot type he's been best against so far lol.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I realize it's still a small sample size, but I'd imagine that a few teams are wishing they'd claimed him on waivers, and conversely, the Canes are probably breathing a sigh of relief that nobody did.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Makes intuitive sense. Interestingly enough it's the shot type he's been best against so far lol.

View attachment 407804

Curious, how do those metrics compare to where goals are scored league wide? I agree it makes intuitive sense. On the surface though, it seems like tip/deflections (both # of attempts and goals scored) seem a bit low, which is why I ask.

Also, can you compare that to Reimer as well?

 

[MinJaBen]

Makes intuitive sense. Interestingly enough it's the shot type he's been best against so far lol.

View attachment 407804

Those heat maps are interesting. I think they are probably a bit deceiving due to the sample size. That said, the distribution on the backhand shots is interesting. Does Ned have a much harder time reading backhands on his blocker side?

 

[RibFrabcus]

Curious, how do those metrics compare to where goals are scored league wide? I agree it makes intuitive sense. On the surface though, it seems like tip/deflections (both # of attempts and goals scored) seem a bit low, which is why I ask.

Also, can you compare that to Reimer as well?

The heatmaps are compared to league average, so the red areas are where they give up more than a league average goalie and blue is the opposite.

Those heat maps are interesting. I think they are probably a bit deceiving due to the sample size. That said, the distribution on the backhand shots is interesting. Does Ned have a much harder time reading backhands on his blocker side?

Yeah sample size is the huge caveat for both, having seen a few hundred shots a piece.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

I do have a question about Ned, do you think his stats might be indicative of his skill, position and the like or do you think it's because a lot of opponents haven't have faced him or gotten used to him yet? Do you think his play will keep up if the Canes decide to make him the starter next season (if it ever comes to that)?

 

[geehaad]

Honestly, we have no idea. The fact that he's played as well as he has is a great surprise to nearly all of us here on HF26.

The thing that I think separates Ned from other goaltenders is his focus, puck handling, and his reflexes. Focus: he just doesn't seem to get lost in a game. Will that decline? Probably...he will probably get accustomed to this new world and will likely lose that focus at times, and when he does, he will look very pedestrian. Puck handling: the Canes haven't had this asset since the short time Barrasso was here, and he was on the downhill side of his career, and we're marveling at how that improves our zone control. Reflexes: this is the aspect that got him drafted in the 2nd round, and what will overcome his size deficiency if he actually conquers that mountain.

Overall, none of us believe he will be the starter next season. We're pleasantly surprised and cautiously optimistic on his future, but the most optimistic is a 1B role to a 1A starter like Mrazek (or similar). His NHL potential is probably a backup who does a decent job filling in for an injured starter. But who really knows, ya know?

Let me say this about "having the book" on a goalie (having faced him previously, knowing his weaknesses, etc): It's horseshit. In the shootout, sure, you've got time and space to attempt to put it where you want. But decisions made at a split second during the game are so influenced by so many other factors that you don't often get to do what you want even when you knew where you'd want to shoot...then there's the issue of executing that plan. Hell, wondershooter Dougie Hamilton placed a wide-open snapshot from below the circles straight into the chest of Jonathan Bernier last night, right? Do ya think the book on Bernier is to shoot it directly at his chest? C'mon. "The book" is the stuff of color analysts.

 

[RibFrabcus]

Honestly, we have no idea. The fact that he's played as well as he has is a great surprise to nearly all of us here on HF26.

The thing that I think separates Ned from other goaltenders is his focus, puck handling, and his reflexes. Focus: he just doesn't seem to get lost in a game. Will that decline? Probably...he will probably get accustomed to this new world and will likely lose that focus at times, and when he does, he will look very pedestrian. Puck handling: the Canes haven't had this asset since the short time Barrasso was here, and he was on the downhill side of his career, and we're marveling at how that improves our zone control. Reflexes: this is the aspect that got him drafted in the 2nd round, and what will overcome his size deficiency if he actually conquers that mountain.

Overall, none of us believe he will be the starter next season. We're pleasantly surprised and cautiously optimistic on his future, but the most optimistic is a 1B role to a 1A starter like Mrazek (or similar). His NHL potential is probably a backup who does a decent job filling in for an injured starter. But who really knows, ya know?

Let me say this about "having the book" on a goalie (having faced him previously, knowing his weaknesses, etc): It's horseshit. In the shootout, sure, you've got time and space to attempt to put it where you want. But decisions made at a split second during the game are so influenced by so many other factors that you don't often get to do what you want even when you knew where you'd want to shoot...then there's the issue of executing that plan. Hell, wondershooter Dougie Hamilton placed a wide-open snapshot from below the circles straight into the chest of Jonathan Bernier last night, right? Do ya think the book on Bernier is to shoot it directly at his chest? C'mon. "The book" is the stuff of color analysts.

Yeah I mostly agree about that. I think on rare occassion shooters might think of a known weakness (something vague like shoot low). But in general how many times does Tripp ask a player about why they shot a particular shot and they're like "I don't know I just closed my eyes and shot it" lol

 

[A Star is Burns]

I think "the book" on a goalie is probably overstated, but I think it's crazy to think it doesn't exist. Sure, there are many split-second decisions where something like that can't be thought of in the heat of the moment or where the circumstances render shot selection and placement almost impossible to control. But there are times in a game where they do get a chance to put a little more thought into what they want to do and probably know where a goalie tends to give up more goals.

 

[The Faulker 27]

My hope is he continues prove people wrong. Good athletes tend to do that. Also Short Lives Matter.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Honestly, we have no idea. The fact that he's played as well as he has is a great surprise to nearly all of us here on HF26.

The thing that I think separates Ned from other goaltenders is his focus, puck handling, and his reflexes. Focus: he just doesn't seem to get lost in a game. Will that decline? Probably...he will probably get accustomed to this new world and will likely lose that focus at times, and when he does, he will look very pedestrian. Puck handling: the Canes haven't had this asset since the short time Barrasso was here, and he was on the downhill side of his career, and we're marveling at how that improves our zone control. Reflexes: this is the aspect that got him drafted in the 2nd round, and what will overcome his size deficiency if he actually conquers that mountain.

Overall, none of us believe he will be the starter next season. We're pleasantly surprised and cautiously optimistic on his future, but the most optimistic is a 1B role to a 1A starter like Mrazek (or similar). His NHL potential is probably a backup who does a decent job filling in for an injured starter. But who really knows, ya know?

Let me say this about "having the book" on a goalie (having faced him previously, knowing his weaknesses, etc): It's horseshit. In the shootout, sure, you've got time and space to attempt to put it where you want. But decisions made at a split second during the game are so influenced by so many other factors that you don't often get to do what you want even when you knew where you'd want to shoot...then there's the issue of executing that plan. Hell, wondershooter Dougie Hamilton placed a wide-open snapshot from below the circles straight into the chest of Jonathan Bernier last night, right? Do ya think the book on Bernier is to shoot it directly at his chest? C'mon. "The book" is the stuff of color analysts.

I guess my last question is, do you see him being the guy being protected for the expansion draft? Or do you see Mrazek/Reimer getting re-signed and protected?

 

[Lempo]

"The book" is the stuff of color analysts.

 

[The Stranger]

Nice write-up on Ned in the Athletic today:

The Hurricanes may have finally found their goalie in Alex Nedeljkovic — after waiving him in January

 

[emptyNedder]

he fact that he's played as well as he has is a great surprise to nearly all of us here on HF26.

Overall, none of us believe he will be the starter next season.

I expect Ned to be in goal if the Canes win the Cup in the next 4 years.

 

[Ole Gil]

I'm still skeptical.

 

[Svechhammer]

The stats and the eye test are all showing the same thing right now. Ned isn't just a capable NHL goalie, he's turning into a pretty good NHL goalie. If he was an inch or two taller, I am pretty sure the consensus would be that the Canes have found their goalie for the long haul.

Now, is he ready to take over as our starter going forward? Nah, I'm not ready to say that, but I am ready to say that when Mrazek comes back, he's done more than enough to start the 9 games necessary for him to be a RFA this off-season rather than a UFA. As of now, hes done enough to supplant Reimer as our 1B, and we should be open to the possibility of handing the reigns over to him full time should his level of play continue.

I mean it's not like undersized goalies can't work in the NHL. In fact, with the push of everyone to move toward bigger goalies who rely on angles more than athleticism, having a slightly smaller goalie who relies on quick reflexes might actually be enough of a wrinkle to be an advantage. I am honest, his heat chart is surprisingly good, and it's not like that is being thrown off due to reduced ice time this year.

 

[emptyNedder]

I'm still skeptical.

I get the skepticism—it should apply to any goalie. Bobrovsky led he league in shutouts the year he became a UFA. Many on this site wanted the Canes to deal for Lehner the past two seasons.

But I think this analogy works.

No candidate for president is obviously going to succeed in the role. But Ned is basically the mayor who turned his town into an economic success-story (WJC 18), governor who led a statewide improvement of the schools (WJC 20), senator who spent two years passing generational legislation (AHL goalie of the year) while creating a non-partisan coalition (Calder Cup).

Skepticism is warranted, but thus far his performance makes sense given his previous successes.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

The stats and the eye test are all showing the same thing right now. Ned isn't just a capable NHL goalie, he's turning into a pretty good NHL goalie. If he was an inch or two taller, I am pretty sure the consensus would be that the Canes have found their goalie for the long haul.

If he were an inch or two taller, he'd probably have been a first round pick.

 

[Svechhammer]

If he were an inch or two taller, he'd probably have been a first round pick.

Growth spurts can happen at odd times.

That said, we appear to have hit on something with this pick. All this kid does right now is win. It's like Nick Foles with the Eagles or Jake Delhomme with the Panthers. You really can't explain it, but it just works. It shouldn't, but it does, and while it looks like the grass could be greener with someone else, there's a good chance it could all go to shit if you make a change. There is something worth sticking with a situation that just works to see how it plays out.

 

[Chrispy]

I think "the book" on a goalie is probably overstated, but I think it's crazy to think it doesn't exist. Sure, there are many split-second decisions where something like that can't be thought of in the heat of the moment or where the circumstances render shot selection and placement almost impossible to control. But there are times in a game where they do get a chance to put a little more thought into what they want to do and probably know where a goalie tends to give up more goals.

There's a book that offensive players may have, but can't you also argue that there's a book that your team has on your own goalie?

For instance, if we think Ned's size is a detriment for deflections and screens, the team may focus more on clearing the net front and letting Ned take more shots with vision. So then the "book" looks more like Ned does well against deflections (as the shot chart shows above) because the team is focused on that aspect of their defense.

 

[The Faulker 27]

If his height/size is a problem, or going to be I sure can't tell. He looks good, and his numbers back that up. I guess we'll know when/if his performance and stats decline, or at least I'm sure that will be consistently listed as a cause.