A SERIOUS DISCUSSION: Alex Nedeljkovic

[vorbis]

with Nedeljkovic headed back to the taxi squad, it's time to think extension or UFA for this summer. he would have to play in 14 out of the remaining 32 games, like actually see ice time, in order to retain RFA status.

 

[MinJaBen]

with Nedeljkovic headed back to the taxi squad, it's time to think extension or UFA for this summer. he would have to play in 14 out of the remaining 32 games, like actually see ice time, in order to retain RFA status.

He's likely back on the taxi squad for just 24 hours. He'll be back up for tonights game to back up Reimer. That is just a cap dance.

 

[vorbis]

He's likely back on the taxi squad for just 24 hours. He'll be back up for tonights game to back up Reimer. That is just a cap dance.

do you think he's going to play 14 of the remaining 32 games? Mrazek may not be "close" per Brind'Amour, but I highly doubt Nedeljkovic hits that number.

 

[MinJaBen]

do you think he's going to play 14 of the remaining 32 games? Mrazek may not be "close" per Brind'Amour, but I highly doubt Nedeljkovic hits that number.

I have no idea. Probably not. Unless there is an injury or trade or he just shows to be better. Than maybe?

 

[Chrispy]

do you think he's going to play 14 of the remaining 32 games? Mrazek may not be "close" per Brind'Amour, but I highly doubt Nedeljkovic hits that number.

If Ned replaces Reimer (I assume 3 goalies stay on the active roster in this case), he could make it. But even then, I would bet he falls a little short.

The team needs to have a goalie available to be selected for the expansion draft. I suppose Helvig could be qualified (goalies can count even if they just have their qualifying offer and are not signed. This is not the case for F or D) and count. But even then, they could sign Mrazek or Ned ahead of the draft and protect that one.

I think if they tell Ned he's going to be the #2 or 1B, he'd be interested in signing here. If they aren't willing to offer that spot, he goes somewhere he can get at least a #2 guarantee as a Group 6 UFA.

 

[emptyNedder]

I think Ned becomes the starter/#1.

Admittedly, that is motivated reasoning.
First, I enjoyed the Checkers' Calder Cup run—watched every game and thought Ned played his best when the team needed him.

Second, I have mentioned before that almost every Cup winner in the past 20 years has won with a goalie they drafted (Crawford, Quick, Holtby, Vasilevsky, Ward, Binnington, Fleury/Murray) or developed (Thomas and Niemi). Now, I realize correlation isn't causation—for quite a few reasons in this case. Still, I think goalies who have been supported throughout their development might get a mental boost.

 

[GoldiFox]

After last season I didn't think Ned had much hope. Looked like he was getting beaten too easily on above-average shots. I thought he'd have to be pretty much perfect in his positioning to be a reliable starter but at this point I was wrong. He's been only very good and he's producing.

I still think he is at a disadvantage against an elite shooter. Zadina had two goals the other night that beat Ned an inch wide and an inch high which a bigger goalie may have tipped. A guy like Vasilevski is going to save more goals than Ned if they both played identically well. Part of that is the ridiculous pads big goalies are allowed. But also any goalie is going to look inadequate next to Vasi.

 

[RibFrabcus]

He seems like the kind of guy that should be streaky but he's been consistently good so far. Interesting tidbit, per Natural Stat Trick, he's 10th in the league for goalies in Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) even though he's only played 8 games. He's already at 4.72 goals saved above average. Every other goalie above him has 12+ games so that's pretty promising. Keep it up Ned!

 

[StormCast]

I've been using Nadal "the tennis player" and Djokovic "the tennis player" to help me remember.

I've been using Andreas Nödl to remember but then try to forget Andreas Nödl. Think I'm doing it wrong.

 

[emptyNedder]

A guy like Vasilevski is going to save more goals than Ned if they both played identically well.

Both Vasilevsky and Ned recently faced Detroit.

Ned 2 goals (.943 sv%).
Vasi 3 goals (.870 sv%).

Vasilevsky is the best goalie in the game right now—that is not my point. My point is more to what I was trying to say yesterday relating to Hart this season and other teams figuring Ned out. Goalies have bad games, bad stretches, sometimes even poor seasons (John Gibson the past two). Almost every goalie who makes it to the NHL has extraordinary skills. For goalies confidence seems essential.

Ned's size isn't perfect, but I don't see that alone as relegating him to backup status. He likes to be involved with the puck, that may be what gives him an edge or leads to his downfall.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I still think he is at a disadvantage against an elite shooter. Zadina had two goals the other night that beat Ned an inch wide and an inch high which a bigger goalie may have tipped. A guy like Vasilevski is going to save more goals than Ned if they both played identically well. Part of that is the ridiculous pads big goalies are allowed. But also any goalie is going to look inadequate next to Vasi.

This is a very good point and, IMO, the main reason to pump the brakes a bit on Ned hype. As his portfolio gets larger and we see him against a wider variety of opponents we’ll have a better sense of his abilities, but all other things equal he’s always going to be at a physical disadvantage compared to the larger goalies. In a position as probability-driven as goaltending, with such tiny margins of success and failure, that is unavoidable and meaningful.

The solution may lie in special skills like his puck handling. That has a proven effect on possession and shot rates. In OT the other night we saw him effectively QB’ing breakouts to allow for a shift change... that’s a big advantage for the team and may compensate for getting beaten by certain shots more often. Likewise, a good active stick for poke-checks and cutting off cross-crease passes can reduce the number of high-danger shots he has to face.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I still think he is a bit reckless with his puckhandling at times. It's clearly an asset, he just needs to learn more of what he can get away with at this level and what he can't. That will likely come with time. As others have mentioned, the players certainly need to continue learning what to expect from him in this regard too, because it's not something they're really used to with the other guys.

The things I like about Ned thus far this year is that he has improved on some of my big concerns. He's way more quiet in there on a regular basis than before. He still is a bit scrambly, but he's calmed it down considerably. Just less fidgety in general. He's also not being overly aggressive as he had at times in the past. That does give teams less to take advantage of. He is aggressive when needed, but I think there were times before where he was aggressive too frequently. His size still is concerning and I think that will always invite more "perfect shots" that will beat him more than it does other goalies. Whether or not that will ever get him to a point that it buries him, we'll see. If he keeps those other concerns at bay, he can be an NHL goalie of some kind.

Saros seems like an interesting comparison to me. His numbers have taken a dip over his career, and it's probably part teams figuring him out somewhat and part the team around him diminishing in talent. I think a goalie with some of the size disadvantages is going to be affected even more by not having that elite team in front of him. I guess considering we expect to have an elite team in front of him for a while, maybe he will end up being a good fit.

 

[Buenos Necas]

Definitely agree with those two posts. His ultimate upside will probably always be capped based on his stature, but it's encouraging to see how he's been able to develop other skills to make up for those limitations.

We'll see how he finishes the year, and as much as I would have hated the idea a couple months ago, I'd feel decently confident about a tandem of Mrazek and Ned next year. It would admittedly widen the range of outcomes for the position, but it may just be the most cost-effective way to keep the rest of the group together and potentially add one more piece up front. If nothing else, having Ned as an option likely eliminates the need to value hunt for a Driedger, Ullmark, or Bernie type. Can focus on finding a clear upgrade on Mrazek, and if nothing is available you can likely bring that tandem back for around $5m.

 

[geehaad]

This is a very good point and, IMO, the main reason to pump the brakes a bit on Ned hype.

The fact that he is undersized is pretty much the only thing that kept us from thinking he would amount to anything here. That's anything but revelatory.

Is talk of him being a part of next year's tandem too much hype?

 

[A Star is Burns]

Definitely agree with those two posts. His ultimate upside will probably always be capped based on his stature, but it's encouraging to see how he's been able to develop other skills to make up for those limitations.

We'll see how he finishes the year, and as much as I would have hated the idea a couple months ago, I'd feel decently confident about a tandem of Mrazek and Ned next year. It would admittedly widen the range of outcomes for the position, but it may just be the most cost-effective way to keep the rest of the group together and potentially add one more piece up front. If nothing else, having Ned as an option likely eliminates the need to value hunt for a Driedger, Ullmark, or Bernie type. Can focus on finding a clear upgrade on Mrazek, and if nothing is available you can likely bring that tandem back for around $5m.

Yeah, I'm still not the world's biggest fan of having him as one of the two goalies next year, but if he's cheap and allows us flexibility elsewhere, I guess I can live with it. I'd like to upgrade on Mrazek if Ned's part of the tandem, just as insurance in case he can't hack it, but we know how difficult that is. I guess the one thing that's a relief is if they run with Ned and Mrazek, and Ned falters, this regime has shown so far it can find solid goalies in the bargain bin like Mrazek, McElhinney, and Reimer. I'm sure they could find someone serviceable during next season if needed. Still not my preference overall, but we'll see how everything goes the rest of the year.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

with Nedeljkovic headed back to the taxi squad, it's time to think extension or UFA for this summer. he would have to play in 14 out of the remaining 32 games, like actually see ice time, in order to retain RFA status.

Don't worry about this. Say Mrazek is out for another month and Nedeljkovic gets every other start, so 7 games, he'll go into the off-season with 21 NHL games played. That's not going to land him a contract of prohibitive term and/or dollars. The only reason to leave would be a better opportunity than what is becoming an increasingly clear 1B to 2 job with the team that drafted him, the coaches that have worked him and the teammates he's played with. That's unlikely, imo.

Now, if he goes full Binnington and has a lot of success in the playoffs, then he'd get paid. However, playoff games count towards the RFA threshold.

 

[Buenos Necas]

Yeah, I'm still not the world's biggest fan of having him as one of the two goalies next year, but if he's cheap and allows us flexibility elsewhere, I guess I can live with it. I'd like to upgrade on Mrazek if Ned's part of the tandem, just as insurance in case he can't hack it, but we know how difficult that is. I guess the one thing that's a relief is if they run with Ned and Mrazek, and Ned falters, this regime has shown so far it can find solid goalies in the bargain bin like Mrazek, McElhinney, and Reimer. I'm sure they could find someone serviceable during next season if needed. Still not my preference overall, but we'll see how everything goes the rest of the year.

Yeah still contingent on how Ned finishes the year, but if he keeps it up he should be a pretty cost-efficient backup. Look for a Mrazek upgrade, if nothing's out there then I'm cool with bringing him back and allocating the money elsewhere. Although admittedly I'm probably a bit higher on Mrazek than others around here.

 

[Tryamw]

He sucks. Calling it right now, this guy is gonna end up on the trash heap in a few years.

TBH I think he’s got a whole other gear he hasn’t shown yet. Give it time and be patient, this kid has a lot of good games ahead of him.

@tarheelhockey has dreams and apparitions. but @tarheelhockey doesn't agree. I think @HisIceness needs to see this cause @HisIceness isn't worthy..

 

[NotOpie]

This is a very good point and, IMO, the main reason to pump the brakes a bit on Ned hype. As his portfolio gets larger and we see him against a wider variety of opponents we’ll have a better sense of his abilities, but all other things equal he’s always going to be at a physical disadvantage compared to the larger goalies.

Getting larger is just a Summer in Eastern NC away.....some BBQ, hushpuppies, with some fried shrimp thrown in and he'll certainly get plenty of horizontal net coverage.

 

[MinJaBen]

Getting larger is just a Summer in Eastern NC away.....some BBQ, hushpuppies, with some fried shrimp thrown in and he'll certainly get plenty of horizontal net coverage.

That's otherwise known as "the Scott Darling Special".

 

[NotOpie]

That's otherwise known as "the Scott Darling Special".

Sweet tea....no beer.

 

[tarheelhockey]

The fact that he is undersized is pretty much the only thing that kept us from thinking he would amount to anything here. That's anything but revelatory.

Being undersized is a pretty big deal for a goalie, though, for reasons described up thread. Since the lockout, only a handful of drafted goalies Ned's height or smaller have stuck in the NHL, and only one of them (Saros) is somebody you'd actually want in your own net.

An inch or two of arm/leg length makes a real difference at the NHL level, where goalies have virtually zero time to react to well-aimed shots. They're all fast and agile, they're all great skaters and most are now good puck handlers too. So other factors determine who makes the team and who doesn't. Two important ones are physicality, and the ability to see the puck over or around 6'3" forwards.

This is like simply recognizing that a 6'9" guy can no longer be successful at the center position at the NBA level. There might be one physical freak somewhere out there who can pull it off, but anyone else who's that size had better learn some new skills or he won't be in the NBA for long. It is what it is.

Is talk of him being a part of next year's tandem too much hype?

Several posts before yours used the term "1B" to describe his upside. I think that's too much hype at this stage. If Ned were to stick in the NHL as a reliable backup, that would be an outstanding result.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Khudobin as well.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Khudobin as well.

Yep, that's fair. I'd take him over any of our 3 right now.

edit: just realized why I missed him... he's not a post-lockout draftee.

 

[hblueridgegal]

His name has been all over this week. They have chatted him up on SiriusNHL a few times this week.