Post-Game Talk: #77 | FLYERS 2 at Stars 3 (OT)| Tue., Mar. 27, 2018, 8:30 pm ET

[The Rage Kage]

It's not hard to figure out:
Try to score, but that increases the odds you lose and get zero points.
Playing it conservative after you've bombed the opposing goalie for fifteen minutes to no avail increases the odds of getting one point - plus you have the same opportunity to win the game in OT.

Let's say you go all out to win, that increases your chances of winning, but also your chances of losing.
If a strategy to increase P(2) also increases P(0) you may be worse off going for the win since a strategy that maximizes P(1) will have a value close to
1 + the probability of winning in OT x 1.
So the conservative strategy has an expected point value > 1.

The object is to make the playoffs, you make the playoffs by getting the most points.

Having Giroux on the ice over Lehtera isnt going to increase the chance of losing though.

 

[Striiker]

In case anyone was curious about the validity of saying that Hakstol loves to turtle and go for the loser point, we have the most OT losses in the league. 14.

He's a coward.

Also, if I remember correctly, we've won 10 times in games that went past regulation, 8 in OT, 2 shootouts.

That means that 24 games this year have gone to OT...

 

[Beef Invictus]

@deadhead, if a coach utterly fails to keep a team conditioned, do you consider that to be good and effective coaching?

 

[Rebels57]

I think I hate this organization now.

If I could take 28, 93, 14, 11, 19, 53, 9, and 6 and start a 2nd Philly expansion team I would honestly move on from the Flyers.

 

[deadhead]

GA/60 minutes ES
Sanheim 2.6
Ghost 2.5
Gudas 2.5
Hagg 2.5
Provorov 2.4MacDonald 2.3
Manning 2.3

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

The Flyers have no need to be desperate, they are up to 90 points with 4 games left, 3 of which are winnable and tonight, well, one point would be great.
If they get to 95 points and get beat out, that means that 3 teams played out of their gourd for over a month, and the odds simply aren't in favor of that outcome.
You have to play the odds.
Drawing to an inside straight is a good way to leave the table broke.

They dont need to be desperate? really?
Detroit and Dallas were winnable games. How did that work out. 2 points left on the table right there. Tonight is no gimmie. They are going into a tough building off a back to back. playing at that altitude coming off a back to back is a tough ask.
Boston owns the Flyers of late. then you play 3 division rivals who would like nothing better than to ruin your season.
would rather go for the straight on the river than fold your hand and settle for a draw.

 

[BernieParent]

Having Giroux on the ice over Lehtera isnt going to increase the chance of losing though.

Sure it is. Look at how much board space there is around the ice. The chance of the puck being near boards is really high, especially considering how close the Flyers' net is to them. Boardwork is like trench warfare; you have to beat your enemy in the trenches. That was the key to winning World War I!

 

[JXC]

Lawyer speak. When you are wrong in an argument, throw out hypotheticals to support a nonexistent situation

What can possibly be more hypothetical than “they would have won with Ghost!!!1!”?

This entire discussion is hypothetical.

 

[Beef Invictus]

GA/60 minutes ES
Sanheim 2.6
Ghost 2.5
Gudas 2.5
Hagg 2.5
Provorov 2.4MacDonald 2.3
Manning 2.3

Did you remember to account for competition and also take more recent stats to show how they're performing now, or are you cherrypicking to create a selective reality in service to your lord and god Hakstol?

 

[Beef Invictus]

What can possibly be more hypothetical than “they would have won with Ghost!!!1!”?

This entire discussion is hypothetical.

Nobody has said they would have won with Ghost. They are saying playing Ghost increases the chances of winning, whereas not playing him increased the chances of not winning.


It's not good when you have to start with the strawman arguments right off the bat.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I think I hate this organization now.

If we could take 28, 93, 14, 11, 19, 53, 9, and 6 and start a 2nd Philly expansion team I would honestly move on from the Flyers.

if HaktRd is back this offseason im strongly considering for the first time since 1978 moving onto another team...

one thats actualy going places instead of stuck in a rut of stupidity...

Vegas maybe ??? they are new enuf to not be looking like a bandwagoner...

 

[Rebels57]

They dont need to be desperate? really?
Detroit and Dallas were winnable games. How did that work out. 2 points left on the table right there. Tonight is no gimmie. They are going into a tough building off a back to back. playing at that altitude coming off a back to back is a tough ask.
Boston owns the Flyers of late. then you play 3 division rivals who would like nothing better than to ruin your season.
would rather go for the straight on the river than fold your hand and settle for a draw.

Youd have to be a complete and total f***ing idiot to not think the Flyers needed to be desperate last night.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Additionally, @deadhead if a coach utterly fails to keep a team conditioned, do you consider that to be good and effective coaching?

 

[Rebels57]

if HaktRd is back this offseason im strongly considering for the first time since 1978 moving onto another team...

one thats actualy going places instead of stuck in a rut of stupidity...

Vegas maybe ??? they are new enuf to not be looking like a bandwagoner...

If we miss and Haktard is back, I wont be watching Flyers games next season. I wont pick a new team, ill just take a hiatus until hes gone. My sister did it when Vick was the Eagles QB (big dog lover).

 

[JXC]

Considering Ghost is superior defensively to the players he's being benched for, no, it does not increase the odds you lose.

Errrr, here’s Gostisbehere in March:

 

[Garbage Goal]

Even if they played risky and won one of the two games in ES or OT then we’d actually be ahead of where we are. That would mean the same amount of points and a ROW which is important considering it’s the first tiebreaker and the standings are always close. Also, we suck in shootouts something awful so just go for it.

 

[Striiker]

if HaktRd is back this offseason im strongly considering for the first time since 1978 moving onto another team...

one thats actualy going places instead of stuck in a rut of stupidity...

Vegas maybe ??? they are new enuf to not be looking like a bandwagoner...

I hope you’re joking

 

[FlyersMania2]

What can possibly be more hypothetical than “they would have won with Ghost!!!1!”?

This entire discussion is hypothetical.

No one is saying we would have won. I am saying that Ghost is better than MacDonald without a doubt just as G is better than Lehtera without a doubt and when you're tied late in the game, put the players on the ice that give you the best chance of winning that game. Are you suggesting MacDonald and Lehtera are those players?

If you aren't playing to win, what are you playing for? It is the very essence of literally every single sport.

 

[onlylordsvsmorebp]

He's a coward.

its the reason he does what he does...he thinks not taking chances and playing vets and playing the role of conservative "old skool" coach protects himself.

 

[Starat327]

Additionally, @deadhead if a coach utterly fails to keep a team conditioned, do you consider that to be good and effective coaching?

Gotta be hoenst - Im a big fan of this series.

 

[Striiker]

Errrr, here’s Gostisbehere in March:

View attachment 108309

+/- ????????

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

A gambler Hakstol is not. Always folding them unless a nonsensical challenge presents itself in Nashville.

 

[JXC]

No one is saying we would have won. I am saying that Ghost is better than MacDonald without a doubt just as G is better than Lehtera without a doubt and when you're tied late in the game, put the players on the ice that give you the best chance of winning that game. Are you suggesting MacDonald and Lehtera are those players?

A lot of smart people have been saying, for months, that this team has too many passengers.

This isn’t XBox and it’s not Mighty Ducks - your favorite players cannot play the whole game.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I think Hakstol is more concerned with Gostisbehere turning the puck over or getting caught up ice with no one behind him than his defensive play, per se. He just doesn't want to give up a quick breakaway-type opportunity that has a high percentage of turning into a goal when he is 5 minutes from guaranteeing a point and then turning his higher-risk players loose 3-on-3.

Last night is actually a good example, Ghost got caught chasing the puck into the offensive zone between the faceoff dots, the goalie pokes it to his defenseman, and the Stars' defenseman takes advantage of the Flyers' defenseman (Ghost) getting caught way up ice by threading a long pass all the way up to the middle and giving the Stars a game-winning 2-on-0.

Luckily, the Flyers' still get a point because it was OT, and I'm sure Ghost was playing it even riskier than usual because of 3-on-3, but the fact remains he *does* make high risk plays as a defenseman, that's his style, and he does sometimes get caught, leading to breakaways. It's happened plenty of times throughout his career.

 

[Striiker]

A lot of smart people have been saying, for months, that this team has too many passengers.

This isn’t XBox and it’s not Mighty Ducks - your favorite players cannot play the whole game.

Find me one quote where people want the top guys to play the whole game.

Or even anything suggesting a big increase in minutes for the guys already playing a lot.