GDT: #64: Rangers at FLYERS, Friday, Feb. 28, 2020, 7:00 pm ET

[Flyer lurker]

I really believe Farabee will be recalled next week and play against Buffalo Mar 7th. But he could be recalled for the Washington game(road game) to make sure we have 13 forwards just in case. But not sure if he will play vs Wash and Canes. But having a fresh body vs Canes on a b2b might make the most sense if they want a few games of Grant/Thompson. With 3 games in 4 days it makes sense to swap him in for whoever is struggling.

I am asking from cap point of view not arguing. 1) Can Farabee be called up and he fits under the cap the rest of the year without making another move? Last 3 games regular season I can see Raffl with phantom injury and Farabee up but can we carry 13-7-2 with cap space? 2) Is it pretty much official Patrick won't play a regular season game.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

And in reality, the "best" regular season team rarely wins the Stanley Cup in the modern era.

That's what makes the NHL exciting, and why games are played on the ice and not spreadsheets.

Soccer fans seem to like League titles just fine. I certainly don't think there's anything wrong with preferring either but I would strongly object to categorizing the Euro style as winning on a spreadsheet. They still won X games to get there.

It just requires a different approach to team-building, rest, and other things.

 

[YEM]

last year Tampa was well ahead of everyone else but #2 through #10 in the league were separated by a handful of points. It's usually tighter [re: Tampa last year]. A 5th seed in a conference might have 105 points while a #2 has 110, on paper the difference between the #2 & the #5 seems vast but it's really not...

 

[Rich Nixon]

Pittsburgh is going to make out like crazy as they used the LTIR money from Guentzel to get people then will add him back when the playoffs start.

There was talk St Louis was going to be able to use Tarasenko's money earlier in the year but then as he progressed through his rehab it was figured he'd be back before the season ends.

And that's the kinda shit Big Boy Playoff Teams can also do. Slow-roll an injured player, spend minimal resources to get plugs until the playoffs, then feed your banged-up talent back into the lineup fresh and off-the-cap. Who the hell cares if you're scratching Rodrigues once Guentzel gets back, and if someone else goes out, Rodrigues is there.

Not the point, the machine rolls on with or without Kahun--guys like him, or fourth round picks that have a remote chance of turning into a guy like him--have "value", but they're entirely replaceable cogs: The superstars and consistent secondary scorers, the coaching, and the development are the machine. Good machines win. Gotta have good working cogs for the machine to run right, though--they break or wear out all the time, they serve different purposes--which is why it's smart to have a bunch of them to choose from. Pittsburgh's big forward add made sense given their luck with forward health this year.

 

[BiggE]

f*** THE RANGERS!!!

Gotta start early!

 

[Rebels57]

It's kind of shocking how poor NYR's 5v5 defensive/suppression metrics are this season. If they didn't have 3 above average goalies, they'd be getting run out of the arena most nights. They're team defense was expected to be bad. I just didn't expect their true level of awfulness.


*5v5 Score & Venue Adjusted Stats 2019-2020 Season to date*
CA/60: 61.53 (31st)
xGA/60: 2.63 (31st)
SCA/60: 29.60 (29th)
HDCA/60: 12.51 (29th)



Not having to face Shestyorkin at all this week is certainly a positive. Flyers gotta win this game and on Sunday afternoon as well. Crush NYR's playoff dreams.

Yeah we really did get lucky with Shesterkin getting hurt when he did. He's been winning games on his own for them.

I think if we play strong defensively and our goaltending isnt an issue, we will walk away with points. Our forwards should be able to grind their defense down.

 

[TCTC]

And in reality, the "best" regular season team rarely wins the Stanley Cup in the modern era.

That's what makes the NHL exciting, and why games are played on the ice and not spreadsheets.

Yeah, nobody cares about the Presidents' trophy. Tampa last season was the perfect example of regular season and playoffs being two different games. 8-2, 4-0, 5-1 were their results against Columbus in the regular season. Didn't look like that in the first round.

 

[flyersnorth]

I looked into this a week or two ago, because I honestly think the Flyers have a pretty decent shot of making a real run at the thing this year. Here is the regular season finish (leaguewide standings) for every Cup winner since the 05-06 lockout:

2019: 12th
2018: 6th
2017: 2nd
2016: 4th
2015: 7th
2014: 10th
2013*: 1st
2012: 13th
2011: 7th
2010: 3rd
2009: 8th
2008: 1st
2007: 4th
2006: 4th

*short 2013 season

It isn't even a "best regular season team doesn't always win the Cup" thing. Less than half of those teams even finished in the top 5. Just as many 6th-16th teams win the Cup as top-5 teams, and 4 of the 7 top-5 teams that won the damn thing were in the immediate post-lockout era. The last decade has favored the field over the top teams.

It might be more telling to look at second-half records, because just glancing at these teams, many seem to be groups that got hot in January and February and carried that through to the end (hell, the 2013 Blackhawks didn't even win a single game until January, wink).

The Flyers have their weaknesses, and we all have apprehension after the last 4-5 years (not to mention the 35 years before that)...but unless something catastrophic happens, I don't think it's wrong to get a little hopeful again.

We'll have to win a round first, of course.

I happened to look it up too a few weeks ago, and was surprised. I suspect, as you say, that a good chunk of these teams probably peaked at the right time sometime after Jan 1.

Does this happen as often in other sports?

 

[flyersnorth]

Soccer fans seem to like League titles just fine. I certainly don't think there's anything wrong with preferring either but I would strongly object to categorizing the Euro style as winning on a spreadsheet. They still won X games to get there.

It just requires a different approach to team-building, rest, and other things.

Yeah, for sure. Personally, I've never cared much about the Flyers' regular season records, scoring races, awards. It's nice to see, and great for the players, but it never has me on the edge of my seat like playoff hockey does.

I don't know what League titles are or how soccer is even structured. All I meant by "winning on a spreadsheet" is that spreadsheets are normative, while the ice is empirical. It is such a team game, full of wonderful randomness and luck and skill and aggression that any team in the top 16 (mostly top 12) can win the Cup.

That's kinda how I see it.

 

[patrick kitchin]

Anyone staying up until 1030 to see if the Kings can do us a favor?

 

[Rebels57]

Monty G spittin fiery truth again

 

[Domino666]

So far everyone that was concerned removing Farabee at the expense of Grant and Thompson would make the lineup worse was correct. They both better play a whole lot better on Friday night.

I think those 2 will be fine, I think Farabee will also be fine heading back to the AHL, he lost a lot of weight after being sick, but Grant and Thompson will turn out to be decent adds

 

[Rebels57]

I think those 2 will be fine, I think Farabee will also be fine heading back to the AHL, he lost a lot of weight after being sick, but Grant and Thompson will turn out to be decent adds

This team will not go anywhere with the Anaheim Ducks 4th line Center as our 3rd line Center.

 

[flyerslducks]

This team will not go anywhere with the Anaheim Ducks 4th line Center as our 3rd line Center.

we will easily get exposed in a 7 game series. Regular season wise they can survive and pull through. In 7 games against deep top teams..laughton in the top 6 and grant+pitlick on the 3rd line is just scary. If laughton can go with grant and pitlick on the 4th it lessens the load. or just put grant there and scratch thompson...thomspon was just a stupid trade

 

[Rebels57]

we will easily get exposed in a 7 game series. Regular season wise they can survive and pull through. In 7 games against deep top teams..laughton in the top 6 and grant+pitlick on the 3rd line is just scary. If laughton can go with grant and pitlick on the 4th it lessens the load. or just put grant there and scratch thompson...thomspon was just a stupid trade

Laughton is on pace for 40 ES points in the middle 6. Its time for people to recognize hes not a 4th liner.

With you on the rest of your point though.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

we will easily get exposed in a 7 game series. Regular season wise they can survive and pull through. In 7 games against deep top teams..laughton in the top 6 and grant+pitlick on the 3rd line is just scary. If laughton can go with grant and pitlick on the 4th it lessens the load. or just put grant there and scratch thompson...thomspon was just a stupid trade

Well, unfortunately they lost a 2LW in Lindblom & a 3C in Patrick due to no fault of their own.

I’m not a big fan of Grant at 3C. But I also think Laughton is pretty good with Hayes & TK. So it’s a pick your poison scenario filling in for Oskar & Nolan.

My guess is that if NP doesn’t return Laughton will end up at 3C by the playoffs, but they want to give Grant a shot first because Laughton is also their best 2L option.

I think Thompson is likely to prove the more effective of the deadline acquisitions. I think he’ll be a good 4th line fit.

 

[flyersfan187]

It’s hard to move Laughton away from wing. Which is why Frost should be up for his solid two way hockey.

 

[deadhead]

Most teams don't have a chance.
The teams that have a shot are generally those that jell after January 1 and have a hot goaltender.

Flyers have jelled after January 1, do they have a hot goaltender?

Playoff scoring tends to bunched around a half dozen forwards, a couple of whom go apeshit and play above their talent, and a defenseman or two, the rest of the team plays hard and tries to slow down their opponent:

2019: St Louis (26 games): O'Reilly (23), Schwartz (20), Tarasenko (17), Perron (16), Bozak (13), Schenn (12), Pietrangelo (19), Parayko (12)
2019: Boston (24 games): Marchand (23), Pastrnak (19), Bergeron (17), Coyle (16), Krejci (16), DeBrusk (11), Johansson (11), Kuraly (11), Krug (18)
2018: Caps (24 games): Kuznetsov (32), Ovechkin (27), Backstrom (23), Oshie (21), Eller (18), Wilson (15), Carlsson (20)
2018: VGK (20 games): Smith (22), Marchessault (20), Karlsson (15), Neal (11), Tuch (10), Huala (9), Perron (9), Theodore (10)
2017: Pens (25 games): Malkin (28), Crosby (27), Kessel (23), Guentzel (21), Kunitz (11), Schultz (13)
2017: Nash (22 games): Forsberg (16), Arvidsson (13), Johansen (13), Sissons (12), Josi (14), Ellis (13), Subban (12), Ekholm (11)
2016: Pens (24 games): Kessel (22), Crosby (19), Malkin (18), Bonino (18), Hagelin (16), Hornqvist (13), Kunitz (12), Letang (15)
2016: San Jose (24 games): Couture (30), Pavelski (23), Thornton (21), Ward (13), Marleau (13), Donskoi (12), Hertel (11), Burns (24), Vlasic (12)
2015: Chicago (23 games): Kane (23), Toews (21), Hossa (17), Sharp (15), Richards (14), Shaw (12), Saad (11), Keith (21)
2015: TB (26 games): T Johnson (23), Kucherov (22), Killorn (18), Stamkos (18), Palat (16), Filppula (14), Hedman (14)

Flyers are building a team with a Nashville like defensive quartet and solid scoring depth.
To win a Cup, they'll need Hart to be hot and 2-3 forwards to play over their heads (like Briere used to do).
But they won't need great production out of their bottom 5 or 6 forwards.

 

[flyersfan187]

If Hart is on the top of his game the Flyers will have a chance for sure. This is a well coached and talented team it’s just Pitt, Boston, Washington and Tampa will be extremely hard to beat this playoffs.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Laughton is on pace for 40 ES points in the middle 6. Its time for people to recognize hes not a 4th liner.

With you on the rest of your point though.

He’s doing that with a 17.9% shooting percentage. I don’t really think this year is a true indication of Laughton at least from a production standpoint which would more so suggest him like a second liner. His underlying numbers are actually pretty bad this year.

I think in a normal year of what we’ve known to expect out of Laughton he’s kind of tweener between the fourth line & third line.

But to this point in his career this year notwithstanding with a pretty high shooting percentage he still has been a relatively productive guy without really being a consistent play driver. Even earlier in his career.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

I looked into this a week or two ago, because I honestly think the Flyers have a pretty decent shot of making a real run at the thing this year. Here is the regular season finish (leaguewide standings) for every Cup winner since the 05-06 lockout:

2019: 12th
2018: 6th
2017: 2nd
2016: 4th
2015: 7th
2014: 10th
2013*: 1st
2012: 13th
2011: 7th
2010: 3rd
2009: 8th
2008: 1st
2007: 4th
2006: 4th

*short 2013 season

It isn't even a "best regular season team doesn't always win the Cup" thing. Less than half of those teams even finished in the top 5. Just as many 6th-16th teams win the Cup as top-5 teams, and 4 of the 7 top-5 teams that won the damn thing were in the immediate post-lockout era. The last decade has favored the field over the top teams.

It might be more telling to look at second-half records, because just glancing at these teams, many seem to be groups that got hot in January and February and carried that through to the end (hell, the 2013 Blackhawks didn't even win a single game until January, wink).

The Flyers have their weaknesses, and we all have apprehension after the last 4-5 years (not to mention the 35 years before that)...but unless something catastrophic happens, I don't think it's wrong to get a little hopeful again.

We'll have to win a round first, of course.

I would guess another contributing factor is the new playoff format. Harder for a lower ranked team to catch matchup breaks when everything used to get reshuffled.

 

[Rebels57]

He’s doing that with a 17.9% shooting percentage. I don’t really think this year is a true indication of Laughton at least from a production standpoint which would more so suggest him like a second liner. His underlying numbers are actually pretty bad this year.

I think in a normal year of what we’ve known to expect out of Laughton he’s kind of tweener between the fourth line & third line.

But to this point in his career this year notwithstanding with a pretty high shooting percentage he still has been a relatively productive guy without really being a consistent play driver. Even earlier in his career.

Im not saying hes top 6 calibre. Hes a solid 3rd liner that can play anywhere on any given night if need be. I just think labeling him as a 4th liner still is dismissive.

 

[Rebels57]

It’s hard to move Laughton away from wing. Which is why Frost should be up for his solid two way hockey.

Frost or Patrick are our only real chance at having a good 3C at this point.

 

[deadhead]

Frost is not going to be a good 3C this year.

He'd be passable, provide more offense than Grant, better playmaking than Laughton.
But he's also have to be protected, kept off the ice with a lead, and maybe benched for road games against certain teams in the playoffs.

Frost is not Giroux in 2008-09, who had 21 ES points in 42 games, and 5 points in 6 playoff games.
Giroux turned 21 in January 2009.
And even then, Giroux struggled in 2009-10 with 26 ES points in 82 games, and a CFrel -1.8, before breaking out in the 2009 playoffs, with 21 points in 23 games.

Frost to me is more likely to be that kind of player next year, after a summer working out and time to digest his rookie experience.

This year AV will probably end up filling 3C by committee.

Laughton to me is an above average 3LW but only an average at best 3C.

 

[Philly Fanatik]

Frost or Patrick are our only real chance at having a good 3C at this point.

Yes...and two of them won’t suit up with the Flyers to play the rest of this season!