5 Jets Have Filed for Salary Arbitration

[Gm0ney]

So can someone shed light on the Trouba arbitration nuisances? If he filed the jets get to pick the number of years? 1 or 2 before he can go UFA? If they had filed he'd get to pick either 1 or 2 years before UFA?

That's correct. He's taking the team to arbitration, so the Jets get to pick the term, if it goes that far. He either signs long term before the arbitration ruling or he'll get a one year deal and be one year closer to UFA.

 

[10Ducky10]

Trouba has 2 years until he is eligible for unrestricted free agency. If the player picks arbitration the team picks the term. In this case the Jets will pick one year and leave one year left.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Trouba has 2 years until he is eligible for unrestricted free agency. If the player picks arbitration the team picks the term. In this case the Jets will pick one year and leave one year left.

Very interesting ...
Would it be fair to presume if we go to arbitration and it’s a one year deal that Trouba essentially doesn’t want to be here long term?

 

[mcpw]

Very interesting ...
Would it be fair to presume if we go to arbitration and it’s a one year deal that Trouba essentially doesn’t want to be here long term?

No. It could just mean that Overhardt and Chevy couldn't agree to a number for a long term deal.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Very interesting ...
Would it be fair to presume if we go to arbitration and it’s a one year deal that Trouba essentially doesn’t want to be here long term?

It's quite rare (albeit not unheard of) that a player that goes through arbitration hearing and signs an arbitration amount would end up with a team long term. The relationship between team and player is already not great if you do and then the hearing is often a final breaking point. As I said above it is not a pleasant position for the team or the player to be in and can really damage relationship. Most players that end up signing an arbitration awarded contract end up on a new team in 2 years or less. There have been a couple exceptions however.

 

[Whileee]

It's quite rare (albeit not unheard of) that a player that goes through arbitration hearing and signs an arbitration amount would end up with a team long term. The relationship between team and player is already not great if you do and then the hearing is often a final breaking point. As I said above it is not a pleasant position for the team or the player to be in and can really damage relationship. Most players that end up signing an arbitration awarded contract end up on a new team in 2 years or less. There have been a couple exceptions however.

Agree. I think that if Trouba doesn't sign long term before arbitration, it's only a matter of time before he's traded.

 

[cbcwpg]

Your Guide to Understanding NHL Salary Arbitration

 

[mcpw]

All player-elected arbitration cases that actually made it to the hearing since 2013 (new CBA):

P.K. Subban, Montreal, 2014
Subban was one year removed from winning the Norris. He asked for 1 year, $8.5M, Habs countered with 1 year, $5.25M. After the hearing, team and player agreed to an 8-year, $9M contract before the ruling. Two years later, Subban was traded for Shea Weber.

Lance Bouma, Calgary, 2015
Bouma came off a miracle 78-game 16-18-34 season during the Flames' PDO year. Bouma asked for 1 year, $2.5M, Flames countered with 1 year, $1.5M. After the hearing, team and player agreed to a 3-year, $2.25M contract before the ruling. Two years later, after Bouma scored 14 points in 108 games with a slightly worse PDO, the Flames bought out his last year.

Alex Chiasson, Ottawa, 2015
After scoring 26 points, Chiasson's agent inexplicably asked for 1 year, $2.475M. Ottawa countered with 1 year, $1M. The arbitrator thought that the Senators might have a better case here and gave out a 1 year, $1.2M deal. Next season, Chiasson scored 14 points and then was traded for an AHL plug.

Mike Hoffman, Ottawa 2015
14-15 was Hoffman's first full season in the NHL at age 25. Boxcars of 27-21-48 made this a pretty interesting arbitration case. Hoffman asked for 1 year, $3.4M, Senators countered with 1 year, $1.75M. The award was 1 year, $2M. Next season, Hoffman scored 29-30-59 and signed a 4 year, $5.188M extension. He was the poster boy of a player-team relationship not being destroyed, well, until that story about his girlfriend came out this summer and he was traded.

Braden Holtby, Washington 2015
Braden Holtby came into arbitration with a super impressive statline: 73 games (!), 0.923 regular season, 13 games, 0.944 playoffs. He asked for 1 year, $8M, Capitals countered with 1 year, $5.1M. After the hearing, a 5 year, $6.1M contract was agreed upon. The relationship doesn't seem to have suffered, and Holtby won a Vezina, a Jennings, and a Stanley the next three seasons.

Marcus Johansson, Washington 2015
Having scored 44 and 47 point the last two seasons, Johansson asked for 1 year, $4.75M, Capitals countered with 1 year, $3M. The arbitrator awarded 1 year, $3.75M. One year later, Johansson signed a three-year, $4.583M extension. Another year later, he was traded to make room for the big Oshie and Kuznetsov contracts.

Craig Smith, Nashville 2015
Having scored 52 and 44 points the last two season, Smith asked for 1 year, $4.75M, Predators countered with 1 year, $3M. After the hearing, both parties agreed to a 5 year, $4.25M contract. Smith is still in Nashville and doesn't seem to be on the trade block.

Tyson Barrie, Colorado 2016
In the chaotic 2016 Colorado offseason with Duchene and Barrie rumors surfacing from everywhere, Barrie asked for 1 year, $6M, Avs countered with 1 year, $5M. After the hearing, they met in the middle for four years, $5.5M. Duchene was traded later, Barrie was not, and he doesn't seem to be on the block right now.

Viktor Arvidsson, Nashville 2017
Arvidsson scored 30 goals and 61 points in his first full NHL season. He asked for 1 year, $4.5M, the team chose to elect two years and asked for $2.75M. After the hearing, they agreed to a 7 year, $4.25M contract. It doesn't sound like he's leaving Nashville anytime soon.

Nate Schmidt, Vegas 2017
Schmidt, the former #6D for Washington, asked for $2.75M. His new team chose to elect two years and asked for $0.975M. The arbitrator awarded 2 years at $2.225M. Schmidt will be a UFA next year, but he's eligible to sign an extension now. We'll see how it goes.

Tomas Tatar, Detroit 2017
Averaging 49 points over the last three seasons, Tatar asked for $5.3M from the cap-strapped Red Wings, who countered with one year, $4.1M. After the hearing, both parties agreed to a 4 year, $5.3M contract. The relationship between Tatar and Detroit was over less than 9 months later, when he was traded to Vegas.

 

[cbcwpg]

Agree. I think that if Trouba doesn't sign long term before arbitration, it's only a matter of time before he's traded.

Not sure if what Trouba's camp is doing ( re: arbitration ) is a step to that goal, but IMO Trouba's goal has always been and always will be... to be an UFA in the first year he's eligible to be an UFA.

Now, of course, he could sign a long term deal with the Jets that will prove me wrong, but we will see...

 

[Holden Caulfield]

All player-elected arbitration cases that actually made it to the hearing since 2013 (new CBA):

So basically 3 players since 2013 have signed an arbitration awarded contract. 2 were gone in 2 years or less, 1 in 3 years. It seems like it is becoming rarer and rarer to see players sign arbitration awards I remember a ton coming out of the 04 lockout including a few where teams walked away from the player.

 

[Whileee]

Not sure if what Trouba's camp is doing ( re: arbitration ) is a step to that goal, but IMO Trouba's goal has always been and always will be... to be an UFA in the first year he's eligible to be an UFA.

Now, of course, he could sign a long term deal with the Jets that will prove me wrong, but we will see...

Jets have very limited financial leverage over Trouba now. One way or another, he'll likely get a big long term deal after next season, if this ends in a one year arbitration award. If the Jets are going to sign him long term, they'll have to entice him with a handsome contract and hope he wants to stay in Winnipeg to win, etc.

 

[mcpw]

So basically 3 players since 2013 have signed an arbitration awarded contract. 2 were gone in 2 years or less, 1 in 3 years. It seems like it is becoming rarer and rarer to see players sign arbitration awards I remember a ton coming out of the 04 lockout including a few where teams walked away from the player.

That's one thing to notice, another thing is that the players who sign arbitration awarded contracts tend to be secondary players. Those three were Chiasson (a plug who priced himself at $2.5M), a 48-point 25-year-old rookie Hoffman signing for $3.4M, and Marcus Johansson signing for $3.75M. The actual good players sign earlier.

 

[cheswick]

Both team and player would rather reach an agreement than have one forced upon them, so it's not surprising the lack of cases that make it to fruition.

Trouba is obviously the most troubling of the bunch. His hold out last time implies there may be some issues with signing herevlong term. Take two arbitration settlements then he's a UFA.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Thanks!
Does arbitration tend to favour the team or the player more?

I'm just trying to wrap my head around how good or bad this is haha

I don't see this as good or bad, simply, this is the process commonly used.

^This
Filing for arb is just a matter of keeping that option open. Filing means practically nothing. Going through with the process is another story.

 

[TheDeuce]

Basically it gives both the teams and player a "drop dead" date. It sets a clock on the negotiations. This can help spur on contract talks. Last year 30 players filed. Only 3 hearings were conducted, 27 signed before hearing (most just before hearings). Of those 3 hearings, 2 signed contracts before the arbitration was awarded. Only 1 player signed an arbitration contract of the 30.

Of note, arbitration can be a grueling process for both sides. It quite often ends any chance of the player signing longterm. Just imagine having a hearing on your salary, where your boss, bosses boss, etc sit in a room in front of a stranger and attack your performance for much of a day to lower your salary. Gotta imagine that would not be pleasant. Most players that end up signing arbitration contracts move on inside of two years of the arbitration.

By way of example, imagine you were Ondrej Pavelec back in 2012 and had to see that this was what the Jets thought of you:

https://www.law.utoronto.ca/utfl_file/count/users/rossi/Team 7- Ondrej Pavelec Club Brief.pdf


It's not an actual filing - Ondrej never filed for arbitration - but an exercise in what such a document filed by the Club would look like. Entertainment value, you know.



m.

 

[cheswick]

Speaking of Ondrej Pavelec, the jets could use a veteran backup...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Very interesting ...
Would it be fair to presume if we go to arbitration and it’s a one year deal that Trouba essentially doesn’t want to be here long term?

No. It could just mean that Overhardt and Chevy couldn't agree to a number for a long term deal.

Both are probably correct. It is literally correct that Chevy and Overhardt couldn't agree but the underlying implication is that Trouba doesn't want to/won't be here long term.

 

[Jack722]

By way of example, imagine you were Ondrej Pavelec back in 2012 and had to see that this was what the Jets thought of you:

https://www.law.utoronto.ca/utfl_file/count/users/rossi/Team 7- Ondrej Pavelec Club Brief.pdf


It's not an actual filing - Ondrej never filed for arbitration - but an exercise in what such a document filed by the Club would look like. Entertainment value, you know.



m.

"More importantly, Pavelec was unable to perform down the stretch. During March and April Pavelec started 15 games, won only 6, and underperformed with save percentages of .900 and .873 respectively. The Jets were in a position to make the playoffs, but when it mattered, Pavelec did not play his best hockey, limiting the value he is worth to the organization.

Pavelec’s history of struggling down the stretch has been consistent throughout his time in the NHL. In 2010-2011, Pavelec was unable to post a save percentage above .900 in February, March, or April resulting in the team winning a total of 4 out of 19 games played. In 2009-2010, Pavelec was only able to win 2 out of 10 starts from February to April. Therefore, since becoming a starting goalie in the NHL, Pavelec has a career record of 18 wins and 55 losses during the February through April time period. It is true that wins and losses are a team effort and cannot be solely blamed on Pavelec, but the fact is that Pavelec’s save percentage has dropped consistently during the final months of the past 3 seasons."

Oof. Nice to have that behind us..

 

[Gm0ney]

By way of example, imagine you were Ondrej Pavelec back in 2012 and had to see that this was what the Jets thought of you:

https://www.law.utoronto.ca/utfl_file/count/users/rossi/Team 7- Ondrej Pavelec Club Brief.pdf


It's not an actual filing - Ondrej never filed for arbitration - but an exercise in what such a document filed by the Club would look like. Entertainment value, you know.



m.

Whoever wrote that filing had a much clearer picture of Pavelec than the Jets ultimately did.

 

[Whileee]

"More importantly, Pavelec was unable to perform down the stretch. During March and April Pavelec started 15 games, won only 6, and underperformed with save percentages of .900 and .873 respectively. The Jets were in a position to make the playoffs, but when it mattered, Pavelec did not play his best hockey, limiting the value he is worth to the organization.

Pavelec’s history of struggling down the stretch has been consistent throughout his time in the NHL. In 2010-2011, Pavelec was unable to post a save percentage above .900 in February, March, or April resulting in the team winning a total of 4 out of 19 games played. In 2009-2010, Pavelec was only able to win 2 out of 10 starts from February to April. Therefore, since becoming a starting goalie in the NHL, Pavelec has a career record of 18 wins and 55 losses during the February through April time period. It is true that wins and losses are a team effort and cannot be solely blamed on Pavelec, but the fact is that Pavelec’s save percentage has dropped consistently during the final months of the past 3 seasons."

Oof. Nice to have that behind us..

If they had gone to arbitration, they could have added... "Also, in addition to his inconsistent performance as a goalie, he was recently convicted of a DUI, which raises important questions regarding his off-ice comportment."

 

[Romang67]

Both team and player would rather reach an agreement than have one forced upon them, so it's not surprising the lack of cases that make it to fruition.

Trouba is obviously the most troubling of the bunch. His hold out last time implies there may be some issues with signing herevlong term. Take two arbitration settlements then he's a UFA.

Yes, but he'll likely be relatively underpaid compared to what the Jets are offering him during those two years. At a certain point, he'll likely look at Overhardt and question why he'll have brought in ~$14M over the period 2017-2021 instead of the ~$24M he would likely have made if he had taken the contract the team offered him.

Even if he leaves as a UFA, it is unlikely that he'll make up that $10M any time soon.

 

[surixon]

Yes, but he'll likely be relatively underpaid compared to what the Jets are offering him during those two years. At a certain point, he'll likely look at Overhardt and question why he'll have brought in ~$14M over the period 2017-2021 instead of the ~$24M he would likely have made if he had taken the contract the team offered him.

Even if he leaves as a UFA, it is unlikely that he'll make up that $10M any time soon.

Not to mention he's had a few serious injuries in his career. At this point I would take the monetary security if I where him as you never know what may happen in the next ear or two.

 

[Whileee]

Yes, but he'll likely be relatively underpaid compared to what the Jets are offering him during those two years. At a certain point, he'll likely look at Overhardt and question why he'll have brought in ~$14M over the period 2017-2021 instead of the ~$24M he would likely have made if he had taken the contract the team offered him.

Even if he leaves as a UFA, it is unlikely that he'll make up that $10M any time soon.

If it goes to arbitration, then this will be the last season that he has a below market salary. By the following season, he would be on a big long-term salary, either in Winnipeg or with another team. There is no way that the Jets would let him go to arbitration again, so they would either sign him long term after this upcoming season, or he will have been traded to another team. The other team would also sign him rather than letting him go to arbitration and then UFA.

 

[Jimmyjets]

If Trouba really doesn't want to be here, if I'm the Jets I elect a 2 year award taking him to UFA. You know it's going there anyway with 2 - 1 year awards but this season you could hammer him in the hearing about his durability saying he's never played a full 82 games and in 4 of his 5 NHL seasons he's missed at least 20% of the games. (granted 2 years ago was due to a holdout).

You might be able to get a value contract for 2 years and potentially increase his trade value for after next season when you trade him. The new team can sign an extension July 1st, 2019 and it would be the same as trading him with one year of arbitration left, except you'd have already done the acquiring team a favour by locking in a lower than market salary. Maybe he only gets 2 by $4 or something like that instead of $6+ on a long term deal.

Hopefully he signs long term and none of this matters. I'm glad he elected arbitration so at least we'll find out what his true intentions are by the start of next season. No hold out, no offer sheet, etc. He'll either be locked up long term as a cornerstone of the team or he'll be on his way out of town and we can start looking at RHD prospects.

 

[cbcwpg]

The upside, I guess, of Trouba filing for arbitration ( and someone correct the spelling on the thread title ) is he can no longer receive an offer-sheet from any team.

NHL Offer Sheet Rules - A Refresher

Players that have elected to go to salary arbitration cannot be given an offer sheet, though there are a few days to get one if they wait to the deadline to file.

A player being taken to arbitration by a team has limited opportunity to sign an offer sheet - it has to be done before 5pm (New York time) on July 5th.