Post-Game Talk: #5: FLYERS at Oilers, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2019, 9:30 pm ET

[hatcher]

I have, actually.

Maybe you should attempt giving the players you despise credit for the good things they do. Be fair.

I do when its there and you know I do but the top players are what run this team so I expect more.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I do when its there and you know I do but the top players are what run this team so I expect more.

You really don't. I still vividly remember when you were shrieking about how terrible Simmonds was, and then demanded that we get a player exactly like Simmonds.

Or that time you were bashing Giroux non-stop and he went off and had a multi-point game. You weren't here to give credit; you disappeared. You become quite scarce when things are going well.

 

[Foggy14]

To be honest....the Flyers start to the schedule was brutal.

They survived the "Death March" with 5 points in 5 games. I'm happy, go back and look at some of the dire predictions.

Yeah, the recent travel was tough, but does it get a lot better?

They'll play 3-games-in-4-nights with travel four times before the end of November. In November, they have 16 games. The travel will be easier than Europe and the west coast, but the game really wasn't supposed to be played this way, imo.

 

[flyerslducks]

we all talk about niskanen's recovery but I would also love to see myers and his ability to recover on plays with his speed/length. Good article on bsh says that "Myers is second among all skaters in exit attempts (27) and completed exits (24), behind just freidman, despite playing one fewer game. Myers also registered 10 carries out of the zone, the most among defensemen, and an honestly insane 83,33 controlled exit%, well above the average for the defense corps (50%)". get him on the team already

provorov-myers
sanheim-niskanen
ghost-braun

that would be our best defense since the pronger/timmo days. Braun wouldn't see top competition anymore and we always see rookies being paired with vets on top pairs. I would rather see Myers make those mcdavid mistakes than braun and i bet that myers strength/length would've prevented mcdavid getting that puck. Stop our begging and suffering already. We have 4 d that can be used on the pk already if that is the reason for keeping hagg.

 

[Foggy14]

Here’s another bold idea. Shop Braun for a vet left D, trade Hagg for anything you can get and roll with a D of:

Provy-Ghost
Sanheim-Niskanen
New LH vet-Myers
Spare: Morin

Looking at you, Jets

The Jets would be lucky to get their mitts on either of those guys.

 

[dragonoffrost]

Even if you do have to make big changes, running the PP through a player we currently dont have on our team instead of arguably the most dominate PP QB of the last 10 years doesn't seem like the best idea.

Again the complaint was about one timers. G can one time a shot from anywhere. He doesn't need to be on the left half wall to do it. Again someone keeps bitching the one time option isn't there. It's there just the pass needs to come from one of the slot guys. Which by the way it does in the setup that everyone is griping is gone. The only one who probably has a tougher pass is Ghost and he can move a little to make the pass.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Again the complaint was about one timers. G can one time a shot from anywhere. He doesn't need to be on the left half wall to do it. Again someone keeps *****ing the one time option isn't there. It's there just the pass needs to come from one of the slot guys. Which by the way it does in the setup that everyone is griping is gone. The only one who probably has a tougher pass is Ghost and he can move a little to make the pass.

If the one timer is as easily accessible as you claim, how come it's all but vanished since they switched G and V?

 

[baudib1]

We are only talking about PP1 and then you are quoting combined PP stats.

I'm sure the surging PP2 has a lot more to do with those numbers then the dominance of PP1

If nothing else the amount they keep tweaking PP1 tell me the coaches are unhappy with the way it is performing.

No, it isn't. I gave the shot/chances/xGF for the PP1 members for the Oilers game, and they were insane, just as they have been all season. This is another post in this discussion where someone just says things without bothering to look at facts.

TOI - CF
Giroux 18:57 50
Voracek 18:34 48
Gostisbehere 16:55 40
JVR 15:36 32
TK 13:49 31
Couturier 13:58 29
Hayes 15:52 30
Provorov 12:07 17
Niskanen 8:37 9
Lindblom 9:49 7

The guys who have been on PP1 all season (Giroux, Voracek, Ghost) all creating CF at a rate of over 2.5/minute. Everyone else is much lower; i.e. PP2 isn't creating at the same rate.The guys who have been split between units are in the middle. It's quite clear PP1 is outperforming PP2, even though PP2 has scored just as many goals.

If you want to see how this looks compared to another team, here's the Sharks' first unit (The Sharks lead the league in xGF on the PP, although basically tied with the Flyers while playing 2 more games)

Hertl 27:42 55
Couture 24:34 49
Burns 27:12 48
Labanc 25:18 43
Karlsson 20:31 40

These guys are all around 2 CF/minute, which is markedly lower than the Flyers' PP1. It's not about a fluke goal or PP2. All the statistical evidence conclusively shows that PP1 is currently crushing.

 

[dragonoffrost]

If the one timer is as easily accessible as you claim, how come it's all but vanished since they switched G and V?

5 games players are still adjusting to game action with it. Timing isn't there yet. But we have to shit can it before it gets the time to work because of a perceived lack of availability. G should have got one off last night before Jake's first goal. Everything was right for the one time shot but he chose to stop and wrist it. I'm not going to sit here on game 5 with new coaches and burn their stuff to the ground when we have a viable power play overall.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Again the complaint was about one timers. G can one time a shot from anywhere. He doesn't need to be on the left half wall to do it. Again someone keeps *****ing the one time option isn't there. It's there just the pass needs to come from one of the slot guys. Which by the way it does in the setup that everyone is griping is gone. The only one who probably has a tougher pass is Ghost and he can move a little to make the pass.

Listening I think running a PP from behind the net can work. Who in our team is capable to being the Gretzkey in that set up.

You usually need a special playmaker with great vision to make that set up work.

 

[dragonoffrost]

Listening I think running a PP from behind the net can work. Who in our team is capable to being the Gretzkey in that set up.

You usually need a special playmaker with great vision to make that set up work.

COOTS! he did it last night

 

[GapToothedWonder]

COOTS! he did it last night

So you think we should run the PP primarily through Coots from behind the net?

Alrighty then.

 

[Rebels57]

we all talk about niskanen's recovery but I would also love to see myers and his ability to recover on plays with his speed/length. Good article on bsh says that "Myers is second among all skaters in exit attempts (27) and completed exits (24), behind just freidman, despite playing one fewer game. Myers also registered 10 carries out of the zone, the most among defensemen, and an honestly insane 83,33 controlled exit%, well above the average for the defense corps (50%)". get him on the team already

provorov-myers
sanheim-niskanen
ghost-braun

that would be our best defense since the pronger/timmo days. Braun wouldn't see top competition anymore and we always see rookies being paired with vets on top pairs. I would rather see Myers make those mcdavid mistakes than braun and i bet that myers strength/length would've prevented mcdavid getting that puck. Stop our begging and suffering already. We have 4 d that can be used on the pk already if that is the reason for keeping hagg.

Myers making the team and emerging is extremely important. That D, assuming Myers performs even 75% as well as he does at the AHL level, would be extremely good.

 

[dragonoffrost]

So you think we should run the PP primarily through Coots from behind the net?

Alrighty then.

If Coots is the 1C wouldn't you think it could run through him?

Come on folks. We need to improve the team all around. Doing the same thing that kept a team a bubble team for 7 years isn't going to change that. And tinkering with lines 3 and 4 and the 3rd f***ing D pair isn't either. 7 years is over and over. 5 games isn't.

 

[Here4ThaLids]

No, it isn't. I gave the shot/chances/xGF for the PP1 members for the Oilers game, and they were insane, just as they have been all season.

We're going to get there, bud, we're going to have the breakthrough. Just have to try different angles --

Positive Outcome Does Not Equal Optimal Outcome
--------------------------------------------------------------
A: The running back went for five yards, pretty good! That's above average, and if we keep getting results like that, we'll march right down the field!

B: The line had it blocked up for a thirteen-yard gain and the back missed his gap. We're lucky he wasn't tackled for a loss.


Positive Outcomes Sometimes Occur Despite Bad Process
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A: See, look! He ripped off a thirty-yard touchdown.

B: They ran into the teeth of a nine-man box and squeaked through a hole created when two defenders collided with each other and fell down.

 

[VladDrag]

Listening I think running a PP from behind the net can work. Who in our team is capable to being the Gretzkey in that set up.

You usually need a special playmaker with great vision to make that set up work.

That net front role/behind the net role should be Patrick's when he comes back. He's shown he can score deflections and tip shots, and he's got great vision. He's not Gretzky, but he can be another weapon down there.

 

[Beef Invictus]

5 games players are still adjusting to game action with it. Timing isn't there yet. But we have to **** can it before it gets the time to work because of a perceived lack of availability. G should have got one off last night before Jake's first goal. Everything was right for the one time shot but he chose to stop and wrist it. I'm not going to sit here on game 5 with new coaches and burn their stuff to the ground when we have a viable power play overall.

The notion of setting your best players up so they can one-time the puck is as old as hockey itself. It's one of the most basic ways you can put your players in a position where they're more likely to succeed.

Oh, and this is way longer than 5 games. Switching G and V goes back to last season.

But sure, I guess our coaching staff are the unique butterflies to overturn more than a century of hockey strategy with this radical departure from a very well proven technique. Those forward-thinking visionaries who cling to guys like Stewart, Hagg, and Braun.

 

[Beef Invictus]

If Coots is the 1C wouldn't you think it could run through him?

Come on folks. We need to improve the team all around. Doing the same thing that kept a team a bubble team for 7 years isn't going to change that. And tinkering with lines 3 and 4 and the 3rd ****ing D pair isn't either. 7 years is over and over. 5 games isn't.

Uh, you are aware that the first PP unit was a major reason why the team was even a bubble team and not far worse off, right? You're acting like a very successful thing was actually somehow holding them back.

Doing a less successful thing does not make success more likely.

 

[Here4ThaLids]

Here's the ES unblocked shot chart for the game, btw. Painful to watch for much of the night, yes, but there really is some reason for optimism. Just pumping it into the low slot! And these aren't all from late, with the game out of reach.

 

[dragonoffrost]

The notion of setting your best players up so they can one-time the puck is as old as hockey itself. It's one of the most basic ways you can put your players in a position where they're more likely to succeed.

But sure, I guess our coaching staff are the unique butterflies to overturn more than a century of hockey strategy with this radical departure from a very well proven technique. Those forward-thinking visionaries who cling to guys like Stewart, Hagg, and Braun.

Just like there was a Giroux office on the left wall guess what the area behind the net was called in the late 80's. THE GRETZKY OFFICE. Which lead to one timers from the circles. It's a valid strategy that just requires execution.

It was set up last night on the play that ended with Jake's goal but ignore that fact all you want. Coots goes behind the net Jake passes it to him. Coots now had the choice to pass back to Jake who could one time it or move over and pass to G. He choose to use G but G chose to stop and wrist it for a reason only known to G. Go back and watch the play. It was available just not executed.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Here's the ES unblocked shot chart for the game, btw. Painful to watch for much of the night, yes, but there really is some reason for optimism. Just pumping it into the low slot! And these aren't all from late, with the game out of reach.

Remember the days when the perimeter and net front shot densities would be swapped?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Just like there was a Giroux office on the left wall guess what the area behind the net was called in the late 80's. THE GRETZKY OFFICE. Which lead to one timers from the circles. It's a valid strategy that just requires execution.

It was set up last night on the play that ended with Jake's goal but ignore that fact all you want. Coots goes behind the net Jake passes it to him. Coots now had the choice to pass back to Jake who could one time it or move over and pass to G. He choose to use G but G chose to stop and wrist it for a reason only known to G. Go back and watch the play. It was available just not executed.

Except Jake and Giroux aren't set up on their ideal sides for shooting, I don't get why you refuse to understand that. I'm a big fan of Couts living in the Briere area (let's not act like anyone but Gretzky could do what he did), I was calling for it last year when it was clear Simmonds had to stop being the focus around the net.

But if Couts is going to do that, then he has much better options if G and V are in places where they can naturally shoot or set up each other. Currently they aren't. I am calling for a more dynamic PP with more threats. You, for some reason, are insisting that setting the PP up to limit their options is the bee's knees. G and V being on their wrong sides will limit absolutely any setup you can dream of. No matter what, it will not be as efficient or dangerous as it could be.

For example, the only one timer option under your plan comes from down low, and it's not even ideal. Under my plan they can be set up from behind the net or from the point.

 

[dragonoffrost]

Uh, you are aware that the first PP unit was a major reason why the team was even a bubble team and not far worse off, right? You're acting like a very successful thing was actually somehow holding them back.

Doing a less successful thing does not make success more likely.

The set up I am talking about has been successful over the years just as much. But because everyone is a human that fears change it can't be done by these so called great players. That's what makes this discussion a joke we have 2, proven through the years by various NHL teams, power play set ups that pp1 could run and confuse teams with but everyone wants ONE setup and make it easier to defend.

 

[baudib1]

We're going to get there, bud, we're going to have the breakthrough. Just have to try different angles --

Positive Outcome Does Not Equal Optimal Outcome
--------------------------------------------------------------
A: The running back went for five yards, pretty good! That's above average, and if we keep getting results like that, we'll march right down the field!

B: The line had it blocked up for a thirteen-yard gain and the back missed his gap. We're lucky he wasn't tackled for a loss.


Positive Outcomes Sometimes Occur Despite Bad Process
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A: See, look! He ripped off a thirty-yard touchdown.

B: They ran into the teeth of a nine-man box and squeaked through a hole created when two defenders collided with each other and fell down.

The process has been fantastic and so have the results. PP1 is producing extremely efficient shots/chances and the results have been better than any unit in the league.

Once again, we're not talking about the unit not creating and just getting lucky goals. They are consistently producing pressure, just about every shift.

All of the underlying metrics for Giroux, Voracek and Ghost are far above the numbers they produced when they all had career years in 2017-18 and Giroux was positioned on the left. This is a small sample, to be sure, but we're talking about a situation where Ghost doesn't even have a point yet -- it's not about short-term results.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The set up I am talking about has been successful over the years just as much. But because everyone is a human that fears change it can't be done by these so called great players. That's what makes this discussion a joke we have 2, proven through the years by various NHL teams, power play set ups that pp1 could run and confuse teams with but everyone wants ONE setup and make it easier to defend.

It is successful if the people being set up are in position to succeed. G and V aren't right now. Swap them and it suddenly becomes far more dangerous, and it also allows Ghost to set them up too. One timers could come from high or low instead of just from below the goal line. That's way better and less limited, isn't it?