#43 wake up or trade him before 2020 season

[4thline]

Where extensions (ie. Matthews, Couture) where inked, they were included. Where a player didn't have an extension, the current amount was included. Some teams have no pending RFA's/UFAs. Their current amounts were also included.

How else would you address the OP's point? Make up data for the other teams in the league?

C'mon

Hahaha didn't notice this gem.

Yes totally. Predicting Brayden Point to be back on the Lightning on an ELC next year is definitely more reasonable than making an educated guess and noting it as such.

 

[Discoverer]

Psst...



Do you think @wmark included Matthews' extension in that 33%?

So including it while addressing his point is considered responding to the argument.

If you don't like the picture, that's fine. Ignore it for a few more months. It will be on display next year.

Or, if you really feel the need to compare, you could look at historical trends instead of guessing what's going to happen next year. Teams have had similar cap structures before and done just fine.

 

[Pookie]

What, trade our "third line" centre who is really a very good 2C, who also provides some grit and physicality (on what is otherwise much more of a "soft" skill team) on a very undermarket value contract?

Um... why?

This is a team about to face a cap-crunch and Kadri is extremely cheap for what he provides; this is not a contract we should be looking to unload, espeially because we don't have anyone behind him to take his role.

True. You WANT value.

But what you NEED is space.

We have just a few options. On the trade front it's basically Zaitsev, Nylander or Kadri.

All teams go through this.

For example, in order to afford it's stars, Tampa traded Bishop, Boyle, Filppula, Streit and Drouin.

They then signed what they believe to be their core.

We are no different.

Your bottom 6 needs to be on the very low end of the salary scale.

 

[Pookie]

Or, if you really feel the need to compare, you could look at historical trends instead of guessing what's going to happen next year. Teams have had similar cap structures before and done just fine.

Be my guest.

I didn't guess or use historical trends. I used the OP's methodology.

If I guessed or used historical trends people would say, "yeah but they could move this player or promote this guy from the minors".... all to ensure that they get the view they want.

People don't like the picture.

No one from the KFC said anything about dicey's point about paying that much for a 3C. But that was before Kadri became that depth player.

They sure say things about others saying we are paying that much for a 3C.

--

Either way, we have a cap crunch and will need to shed salary. We also need to replace picks lost and feed that pipeline of ELC talent.

 

[4thline]

The funny thing is- if I could make a draft day trade for of Kadri for Faksa++ I would do it in a heart beat. Wallmark++ likely too, but that would depend more on the +'s. Makes a lot of sense, solves a lot of problems.

But I don't feel the need to lie to make a tangential case to defend that position.

 

[Discoverer]

Either way, we have a cap crunch and will need to shed salary.

Sure. And there are plenty of ways to do that. Trading Kadri might be one of them, but it's not ideal because he's actually an impact player despite not being a "Top 6" guy.

 

[IPS]

Only 3 more years of trash threads like these after this year! We were supposed to trade him right after his ELC, during his bridge, after his bridge, as soon as his new $4.5M contract started, and every year of it so far!

But it's ok boys, we're gonna trade him, we're just not sure when, or why, or to who, but we know he needs to be traded!

 

[1specter]

Weird, Killorn and Miller are both making $4.5 and $5.25M on deals with term. Wonder what Tampa was doing there.

 

[Bluelines]

Here:
Centers: Point, Stamkos, Cirelli
Team Line Combinations

Cap:
Tampa Bay Lightning - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Point (.686) no deal for 2019-2020
Stamkos (8.5)
Pirelli (.738) signed through next year

For San Jose, Couture's cap hit goes up by 2M next year, like Matthews', it was included in the list.

Just the worst voodoo math... not that I care but I felt left out of the pile on Pookie thing... VOO DOOOOOOOOO I tell ya....

 

[Pookie]

Sure. And there are plenty of ways to do that. Trading Kadri might be one of them, but it's not ideal because he's actually an impact player despite not being a "Top 6" guy.

Not plenty... a combination of:

- let Gardiner walk for nothing
- let Hainsey walk for nothing
- don't sign Kapanen
- don't sign AJ
- don't sign Marner
- trade Zaitsev
- trade Nylander
- trade Kadri

 

[Pookie]

Just the worst voodoo math... not that I care but I felt left out of the pile on Pookie thing... VOO DOOOOOOOOO I tell ya....

Can you imagine if I had estimated future value contracts?

Backlash was big enough using actual numbers and methods of the OP.

Scary I tells ya.

 

[Pookie]

Weird, Killorn and Miller are both making $4.5 and $5.25M on deals with term. Wonder what Tampa was doing there.

After shedding salary you mean?

It's not a David Blaine trick.

That's how it works. You shed the salary. Get the space. Sign your players.

Next summer, we are in the "shed salary" phase

 

[Discoverer]

Not plenty... a combination of:

- let Gardiner walk for nothing
- let Hainsey walk for nothing
- don't sign Kapanen
- don't sign AJ
- don't sign Marner
- trade Zaitsev
- trade Nylander
- trade Kadri

That doesn't qualify as "plenty" to you? Hell, there's also the potential scenario (however unlikely) in which Marleau retires and his cap hit is sent elsewhere.

 

[stickty111]

I am going to post this from Bert.

Interesting notes about Kadri:

- his having a career year in the face off for (53.8%)
- he’s also having his best CF % for season (53.9%)
- his expected goals for/against differential is +4.3
- his PDO is on par for his career

This is all not surprising considering he’s facing easier competition.

Then consider:

- his assist totals, shot attempts, and shots on goal totals are on par with the last two seasons
- his shooting percentage is currently down roughly 4% from the last two years
- if you take his average shots per game over a the season this year, and multiply it by that 4% difference in shooting percentage, that gets you 8.5 goals

By all accounts it seems like Kadri’s struggles are overstated and production is more of a case of tough luck. He’s certainly being more dominant in his match ups defensively.

Part of this downturn is his PP goal totals ... he hasn’t been used as the high tip that he was the last two years. 12 PPG in each of the last two years, with only 4 so far this year. That’s certainly a factor.

It doesn't mean I am saying "sacildge to trade him" or he is "great".
I had to say it because people get offended if Kadri gets any kind of praise.

As I mentioned some time ago, the time to trade Kadri is in 2 years unless you can find an upgrade before then, or you let him leave in free agency.

 

[4thline]

Just the worst voodoo math... not that I care but I felt left out of the pile on Pookie thing... VOO DOOOOOOOOO I tell ya....

Not voodoo. Just a ridiculous misrepresentation of data. It's like building a cap model for the Leafs next season and pencilling in an ELC Marner. Just plain dumb.

 

[4thline]

Can you imagine if I had estimated future value contracts?

Not a single person would have had a problem if you put in Tampa at 19 million*

*Point estimated at 9.5.

See that. Simple assumption that leads to a reasonable comparative output, clearly communicated.

 

[Bluelines]

Can you imagine if I had estimated future value contracts?

Backlash was big enough using actual numbers and methods of the OP.

Scary I tells ya.

Voo Doo magic master!!!

 

[Pookie]

Not a single person would have had a problem if you put in Tampa at 19 million*

*Point estimated at 9.5.

See that. Simple assumption that leads to a reasonable comparative output, clearly communicated.

What's 27-19?

 

[Menzinger]

I am going to post this from Bert.



It doesn't mean I am saying "sacildge to trade him" or he is "great".
I had to say it because people get offended if Kadri gets any kind of praise.

As I mentioned some time ago, the time to trade Kadri is in 2 years unless you can find an upgrade before then, or you let him leave in free agency.

Yep.

It’s a legitimate discussion tonhace during his final year, but given how valuable centre depth is vs his caphit hard to make the case. Unless of course Babs starts to open to slot Nylander down the middle next season

 

[BertCorbeau]

Yep.

It’s a legitimate discussion tonhace during his final year, but given how valuable centre depth is vs his caphit hard to make the case. Unless of course Babs starts to open to slot Nylander down the middle next season

Agreed. The Leafs need to start planning on how they’ll replace Kadri in a few years .. the easiest way would be to develop their own. Any trades they make should consider this need in mind.

Additionally Nylander should be able to transition to centre IMO in that time. He’s showing more engagement lately which would be required by him in that role

 

[Pookie]

That doesn't qualify as "plenty" to you? Hell, there's also the potential scenario (however unlikely) in which Marleau retires and his cap hit is sent elsewhere.

Not when you have 14 contracts inked for next year and only have 7-10M in space to spend (depending on what the cap is).

That space assumes all the UFAs and RFAs walk.

Toronto Maple Leafs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

The middle tier is where the savings need to come from. Moving one ELC guy for another won't change the cap hit.

Moving the Stars is possible just not advised.

Moving Marleau.... is up to Marleau.

 

[4thline]

What's 27-19?

Lol so it doesn't matter that you lied, because we still spend more. I say lied because no business minded person such as yourself would ever make such a gradeschool level mistake right?

What's 26.1 - 19? (subtracting the difference between Kadri's contract the 75th highest paid C (theoretically middle of the road 3C)

What's 24.35 -19? (90th highest paid C)

What's 23.5-19? (standard 900k elc)

If you're going to make the "we can't spend so much money on C's because other teams aren't, Kadri's gotta go" at least take the time to understand that based on the method of comparison you chose no savings from Kadri are going to be enough to bring us in line.

So not only was it a dishonest representation, the honest version doesn't even make a particularly strong point, and completely ignores that we would need to acquire one of those three options to replace him

 

[4thline]

Agreed. The Leafs need to start planning on how they’ll replace Kadri in a few years .. the easiest way would be to develop their own. Any trades they make should consider this need in mind.

Any move this year requires one of a pretty short list of things:
Pencilling in Brooks
Trading for one of Faksa or Wallmark
??

The list of viable available 3'Cs that represent significant cap savings is quite short

 

[Menzinger]

Agreed. The Leafs need to start planning on how they’ll replace Kadri in a few years .. the easiest way would be to develop their own. Any trades they make should consider this need in mind.

Additionally Nylander should be able to transition to centre IMO in that time. He’s showing more engagement lately which would be required by him in that role

They will definitely need a replacement plan.

Unless he’s willing to sign a. Team friendly team at like 5x5 I think odds are he leaves as UFA. Having Nylander anchor hisbown scoring line seems to be the natural fit here

 

[BertCorbeau]

Any move this year requires one of a pretty short list of things:
Pencilling in Brooks
Trading for one of Faksa or Wallmark
??

The list of viable available 3'Cs that represent significant cap savings is quite short

I don’t think trading him this year or next is in the cards with the cap situation being so tight and the Leafs clearly trying to contend.

At the earliest I would say you consider moving him as apart of a roster retooling after next season when he has two years left on his deal and he’s 30

That being said if they want to go the internal route of replacing him they’ll have to get the prospect in the system now, or acquire one. Maybe they already have one but they’re longer shots right now