In the last month plus pretty much their mistakes have had a higher than normal probability of ending up in the back of the net. Hockey’s weird some times as things can really just snowball on you when it’s going bad. I’d imagine the whole team’s confidence is shot at this point. They’re probably always expecting the other shoe to drop when they’re out there.
Look at Detroit last year. They were arguably the worst team in the salary cap era. Their goal metrics in both directions was considerably worse than their actual shot/chance metrics. It just went south. They brought back essentially the same team this year & while still bad they’re not even the worst team in the league let alone historically bad.
Since March 1st...
Expected goals against: 56.81 (16th of 31)
Actual goals against: 98 (31st of 31)
Save %: 0.846 (31st of 31)
*this is at all strengths
And the actual goals against are 10 more than 30th place.
The coaching and system is a problem, without question, but if that was 100% of the problem then the expected goals against would be ranked similarly to the actual goals against.
It basically boils down to this: the overall roster is good, the overall process is mediocre, and the goaltending is historically bad.