Value of: #3 or #5 picks

[KevinRedkey]

Ottawa moving the 3rd pick isnt happening unless it involves the 2nd or 1st pick coming back. You gotta think they wanted Laf or a franchise center man in Byfield or Stutzle.

That said, moving down from 5th to say... 9th overall a probably ok.

 

[Korpse]

3 way
to Oil
2020 3OA [OTT via SJ]

to Sens
+ EDM 2020 1st, NYR 2020 1st, CAR/TOR 2020 1st, NYR 2020 3rd, NYR 2021 1ST
+ Buchnevich [rfa, next season 3.25 per] + Deangelo [deal pending project 5.5 ish mid term, more short term, less long term]

to NYR
OTT 2020 1st 5OA
Broberg
CBJ 2020 and 2021 2nd

Analysis:
Oil gets the pick it wants
Rangers the next pick + Broberg
Sens get ample 1sts and other pick value, top RD to pair w/Chabot plus a guy who can play either W first or second line

--------
separate deal
OTT 2021 4th + NYR 2020 6th + three 2020 7ths (NYR, NAS, VAN)
+ Smith 4.35 expires next season, bonus already paid
for
Gaborik rights 4.875 ltir + Sens 2021 3rd

On paper I expect OTT saves a little money and gets lesser picks to let NY upgrade from OTT 4 to OTT 3 next year.

This was frustrating to read. Missed the mark by so so much.

 

[bernmeister]

This was frustrating to read. Missed the mark by so so much.

Sorry you felt that way; suspected I was faithful to OP's premise.

Please feel free to breakdown how this is not enough value.
I believe it is fully fair value.
If you want to say you think two top 5 picks should go for other return, that is fair, just pls share what counter offers you feel exceed mine and why.

 

[Stealth JD]

You want young talent in exchange for #3 or #5? Sure...take your pick of the following:

Scott Perunovich, Vince Dunn, Jordan Kyrou, Sammy Blais, Zach Sanford, Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev. Blues would probably part with a couple of those young, cheap guys that make the Blues depth among the envy of the league. Jaden Schwartz may shake loose from the cap-squeeze too; so he could be included as part of the package, if you've got $6.5M/year for an extension.

 

[Korpse]

Sorry you felt that way; suspected I was faithful to OP's premise.

Please feel free to breakdown how this is not enough value.
I believe it is fully fair value.
If you want to say you think two top 5 picks should go for other return, that is fair, just pls share what counter offers you feel exceed mine and why.

To be honest I didn't intent to quote your post. The premise of the thread makes no sense.

 

[Sting]

The replies in this thread are a good reminder that no trade is going to equal the value of the #3 and #5 picks. Sens need quality, not quantity as you suggested. They already have a top 3 prospect pool in the league pre-draft....there's plenty of depth.

 

[Sun God Nika]

#4 for #3 and Bobby Ryan.

Makes little sense as a hockey trade, but basically Detroit pays Melnyk $15M to move up one spot. And, well, it is Melnyk.

you have to add #32 so Pierre can try and spin it as non cost cutting trade. Also keep in mind sens have to hit the floor, but maybe with that floor space sens can use it to aquire additional assets.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

you have to add #32 so Pierre can try and spin it as non cost cutting trade. Also keep in mind sens have to hit the floor, but maybe with that floor space sens can use it to aquire additional assets.

Can't do 32, but can add one of the late 2nds or our own third.

... I would actually do this. From a value point it's not the greatest for OTT (But not far off from prior Top 5 pick swaps of the past) but it's absolutely the type of move Melnyk would make.

Honestly though, I'm not even sure you could convince the Ilitch family to pay $15M to move up one spot.

 

[Clamshells]

Sorry you felt that way; suspected I was faithful to OP's premise.

Please feel free to breakdown how this is not enough value.
I believe it is fully fair value.
If you want to say you think two top 5 picks should go for other return, that is fair, just pls share what counter offers you feel exceed mine and why.

Here's a counter: NYR 2020 1st for Ottawa's 7th round picks for the next 50 years. Those 7ths may be way worse quality but look how much quantity you get!!!

Ottawa already has too many picks this draft, they are not trading down 3 or 5 let alone both, to pick up more weaker picks.

 

[bernmeister]

Here's a counter: NYR 2020 1st for Ottawa's 7th round picks for the next 50 years. Those 7ths may be way worse quality but look how much quantity you get!!!

Ottawa already has too many picks this draft, they are not trading down 3 or 5 let alone both, to pick up more weaker picks.

not a given
and
that was OP premise

 

[GSG1165]

On second thought

Trade 1:

If Stutzle was on the board I offer

Matt Tkachuk for #3.

(Not sure if I would do it for Byfield, haven’t seen enough of him outside the WJC)

Trade two:

Valimaki or Hanifin + Flames first round pick (if we lose the play in round it’s like 11th overall)

for third overall.

There should be a really good player on the board still (Quinn, Lundell, maybe a Rossi or Perfetti falls). Doubt this is as enticing to Ottawa though. Not sure I like it as a Calgary fan as I think we are selling low on two stud LD. And the gap in this draft from 3 to 11 might not be as huge as in most drafts. but at the same time you gotta give up your best young assets to get a potential 1C.

Matt Tkachuk for #3? Very tempting as a Sens fan. Value is definitely there, perhaps favoring Ottawa. I would pull the trigger for a sure star.

 

[TeamRenzo]

The response to this makes me think it's an even smarter idea. If GMs overvalue picks even half as much as fans do, I'm even more sold.

Here are the #3OA, 2005-2015:
Jack Johnson, Jonathan Toews, Kyle Turris, Zach Bogosian, Matt Duchene, Erik Gudbranson, Jonathan Huberdeau, Alex Galchenyuk, Jonathan Drouin, Leon Draisaitl, Dylan Strome

...and here are the #5OA, 2005-2015
Carey Price, Phil Kessel, Karl Alzner, Luke Schenn, Brayden Schenn, Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Strome, Morgan Rielly, Elias Lindholm, Michael Dal Colle, Noah Hanifin

Obviously lots of superstars in there that are mostly only available through the draft (Price, Kessel, Toews, Duchene, Huberdeau, Draisaitl, Reilly, Lindholm)....but lots of duds in there too.

To my earlier point, if the sens hit on the picks we get superstars that we'll have difficulty surrounding with enough talent to build a contender. Karl at $11.5M would have sunk us. To stay in our budget, we'd be icing trash on other parts of the roster. So we might "win" the pick selection, but short of a new richer owner, I don't think we're winning the cup that way.

Alternatively, if one or both picks miss or give us just an average player, we'd be wishing we could go back and trade the picks when we had the chance.

So, you offer me a deal around a good young upward-trending cost-controlled player + a prospect with a high ceiling and good trajectory and a late 1st, and I'm taking it. Let some other team with deeper pockets see if it's Carey Price or Luke Schenn hiding in the #5 box.

Of course, trades like this never happen, and sens fans would absolutely revolt (even more than they are currently). But they're winnable trades. It's just not a very sexy thing to do.

What you are asking for is what you will get for pick #3 and #5. Two upward trending, cost-controlled players. I am not sure if you are trolling or not, however the fact that you think this is a "smart idea" leads me to believe you are high.

Maybe I am overlooking something so please feel free to offer a few suggestions for players/packages you would trade to acquire those picks.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Ottawa is in full rebuild, but we're a budget team and I'm worried we can't compete with expensive superstars eating up too big a share of our budget space.

If Sens decide to win by committee and team depth, what good pieces would you offer up for the #3 and/or #5 picks?
Needs to be youth, picks or cost controlled assets.

Wouldn't really good draft picks that can play on the roster on inexpensive ELC contracts be ideal given this situation?

The premise seems like a really bad idea. Shut this thread down I would say.

 

[The Old Master]

if the pen's get no. 1. oa. i would trade it for 3&5.

 

[dumbdick]

Wouldn't really good draft picks that can play on the roster on inexpensive ELC contracts be ideal given this situation?

The premise seems like a really bad idea. Shut this thread down I would say.

I'm blown away by how negative the response is to this thread.

There are a bunch of #3 and #5 flops or guys that became average players in recent history. Teams would kill to be able to go and trade the picks that became Bogosian or Gudbrandson or Luke Schenn or Alzner or Galchenyuk or Strome or Turris or Drouin or Niederreiter or Strome or Dal Colle ...That's 11 picks out of the last 22 picks in these spots that you'd probably go back and take the trade if given the opportunity. There are others that are pushes.

I get this is a prospects forum, but does that list not give you any pause at all?

And for the sens, that's before you even consider the salary aspects. The Sens just traded Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone for underwhelming returns because we couldn't afford them and they were due to get paid.

If we rock this lottery and land our own version of Matthews and Marner, we're going to be $22 million invested in a few years when these two need to get paid. That's about a 3rd of our cap tied up in two players, and will never happen. We'll end up trading them then. I think the value of the pick is higher now than the value of the guy about to be paid (if he hits, which is a coin toss).

I want to win a cup, not watch a few stars headlining an AHL team for a couple seasons. I trade these picks for quantity of slightly lesser stars that are established, and try to build a deep young contender without stars, like how Vegas shocked everyone in their first season.

As much as people complain about the premise, I think you win this trade about 65% of the time, push about 15% of the time and lose a star like Price for the last 20%.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I'm blown away by how negative the response is to this thread.

There are a bunch of #3 and #5 flops or guys that became average players in recent history. Teams would kill to be able to go and trade the picks that became Bogosian or Gudbrandson or Luke Schenn or Alzner or Galchenyuk or Strome or Turris or Drouin or Niederreiter or Strome or Dal Colle ...That's 11 picks out of the last 22 picks in these spots that you'd probably go back and take the trade if given the opportunity. There are others that are pushes.

I get this is a prospects forum, but does that list not give you any pause at all?

And for the sens, that's before you even consider the salary aspects. The Sens just traded Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone for underwhelming returns because we couldn't afford them and they were due to get paid.

If we rock this lottery and land our own version of Matthews and Marner, we're going to be $22 million invested in a few years when these two need to get paid. That's about a 3rd of our cap tied up in two players, and will never happen. We'll end up trading them then. I think the value of the pick is higher now than the value of the guy about to be paid (if he hits, which is a coin toss).

I want to win a cup, not watch a few stars headlining an AHL team for a couple seasons. I trade these picks for quantity of slightly lesser stars that are established, and try to build a deep young contender without stars, like how Vegas shocked everyone in their first season.

As much as people complain about the premise, I think you win this trade about 65% of the time, push about 15% of the time and lose a star like Price for the last 20%.

There's three different strategies Ottawa could try to win with:

1. Acquire top draft choices and build a core around those guys. Go for it while these guys are young & on ELCs.
2. Trade the draft selections for RFA (and/or players in the 22 - 25 year old range) players - guys that are more known entities
3. Sign or trade for good UFAs.

Alternative #1 - Based on your post, you want to trade the top draft choices (#3 & #5 overall), so that option is eliminated. I'll come back to this one in a minute.

Alternative #2 - While those RFA player are more known entities, they will be headed to their bigger payday contracts much faster. Ironically, this will lead to problem you've stated you want to avoid.

Alternative #3 - The Senators have always been more likely to trade this kind of player away, rather than go out and sign them. That's been the history of the team since trading Chara, Hossa and ever since. Since Melnyk has been the owner, this problem has only gotten worse.

Back to alternative #1 - I think Ottawa's best chance is to have their best, core players on ELCs and try to win when they are young. The top part of this draft is supposed to have some very talented players in it.

Further, I disagree about the Karlsson trade. It turned out very well for the Senators with #3 overall, Norris, a couple of roster players and a 2nd as well iirc. Hopefully you are not basing that on what the misguided HF experts said at the time of trade.

 

[phlocky]

I'm blown away by how negative the response is to this thread.

There are a bunch of #3 and #5 flops or guys that became average players in recent history. Teams would kill to be able to go and trade the picks that became Bogosian or Gudbrandson or Luke Schenn or Alzner or Galchenyuk or Strome or Turris or Drouin or Niederreiter or Strome or Dal Colle ...That's 11 picks out of the last 22 picks in these spots that you'd probably go back and take the trade if given the opportunity. There are others that are pushes.

I get this is a prospects forum, but does that list not give you any pause at all?

And for the sens, that's before you even consider the salary aspects. The Sens just traded Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone for underwhelming returns because we couldn't afford them and they were due to get paid.

If we rock this lottery and land our own version of Matthews and Marner, we're going to be $22 million invested in a few years when these two need to get paid. That's about a 3rd of our cap tied up in two players, and will never happen. We'll end up trading them then. I think the value of the pick is higher now than the value of the guy about to be paid (if he hits, which is a coin toss).

I want to win a cup, not watch a few stars headlining an AHL team for a couple seasons. I trade these picks for quantity of slightly lesser stars that are established, and try to build a deep young contender without stars, like how Vegas shocked everyone in their first season.

As much as people complain about the premise, I think you win this trade about 65% of the time, push about 15% of the time and lose a star like Price for the last 20%.

So what do you think of my proposal?

Frost (our top forward/center prospect (projected to be a 2and line player) plus our 1st this year and next for the #5 pick IF Drysdale is still on the board? Is that enough for you to trade the #5 pick?

 

[Sam Pollock]

if the pen's get no. 1. oa. i would trade it for 3&5.

I like this trade the best. I believe that who ever comes out with the 3rd and 5th picks this year will come out further ahead in the long run than just having the 1st pick. If I had the first pick overall, regardless of the team, I would be pushing for this.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

#4 for #3 and Bobby Ryan.

Makes little sense as a hockey trade, but basically Detroit pays Melnyk $15M to move up one spot. And, well, it is Melnyk.

not enough, Ott adds a 2nd easily.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Matt Tkachuk for #3? Very tempting as a Sens fan. Value is definitely there, perhaps favoring Ottawa. I would pull the trigger for a sure star.

Yeah he’s our most valuable asset in a trade (him or Gaudreau). But we are stacked at LW beyond belief. Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Pelltier, Dube, Pettersen...
Definitely more risk in Byfield or Stutzle but you gotta do what you gotta do to try and get a 1C type

 

[Habs Halifax]

Caufield and Poehling for 5OA

Not sure if I like Caufield and Poehling for one of Sanderson, Raymond, Rossi? I'd rather see if the Sabres would do Domi for 8th OA + to be honest. Not much difference from 5-10

Sens won't be trading those picks. They will get two from Byfield, Stutzle, Drysdale, Sanderson, Rossi.

 

[bernmeister]

There's three different strategies Ottawa could try to win with:

1. Acquire top draft choices and build a core around those guys. Go for it while these guys are young & on ELCs.
2. Trade the draft selections for RFA players - guys that are more known entities
3. Sign or trade for good UFAs.

Alternative #1 - Based on your post, you want to trade the top draft choices (#3 & #5 overall), so that option is eliminated. I'll come back to this one in a minute.

Alternative #2 - While those RFA player are more known entities, they will be headed to their bigger payday contracts much faster. Ironically, this will lead to problem you've stated you want to avoid.

Alternative #3 - The Senators have always been more likely to trade this kind of player away, rather than go out and sign them. That's been the history of the team since trading Chara, Hossa and ever since. Since Melnyk has been the owner, this problem has only gotten worse.

Back to alternative #1 - I think Ottawa's best chance is to have their best, core players on ELCs and try to win when they are young. The top part of this draft is supposed to have some very talented players in it.

Further, I disagree about the Karlsson trade. It turned out very well for the Senators with #3 overall, Norris, a couple of roster players and a 2nd as well iirc. Hopefully you are not basing that on what the misguided HF experts said at the time of trade.

Generally sound reasoning, but OP infers he is concerned about lack of depth as problematic.
McDavid, Eichel, etc all need a supporting cast.

Of course, you also need one or two standouts even if there is general across the board excellence.

I think the prevailing axiom here is it's not as much what you give up as what you get.
That of course is as to winning, not fielding a decent/+ team for least $ due to owner, to which you have my sympathy.

 

[The Old Master]

I like this trade the best. I believe that who ever comes out with the 3rd and 5th picks this year will come out further ahead in the long run than just having the 1st pick. If I had the first pick overall, regardless of the team, I would be pushing for this.

it breaks the first rule of trading
(the team that get the best player wins the trade) and the pen's are in a win now mode so it's not a slam dunk. but i think i would still do it.

 

[kevsh]

Having two Top 5 picks is a very rare thing. Sens basically a lock to come out of this draft with at least one young star.

2017- (3) Heiskanen (5) Pettersson
2016- (3) Dubois (5)Juolevi
2015- (3) D.Strome (5) Hanifin
2014- (3) Draisaitl (5) Dal Colle
2013- (3) Drouin (5) Lindholm
2012- (3) Galchenyuk (5) Reilly
2011- (3) Huberdeau (5) R.Strome
2010- (3) Gudbranson (5) Niederreiter
2009- (3) Duchene (5) B.Schenn
2008- (3) Bogosian (5) L.Schenn

First, I firmly believe Ottawa should hold onto those picks unless they see a can't-say-no opportunity to trade up/down, whatever. But as recent history has shown, even getting one star out of these two picks is far from certain.

If this was 2017, though ...

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

3 way
to Oil
2020 3OA [OTT via SJ]

to Sens
+ EDM 2020 1st, NYR 2020 1st, CAR/TOR 2020 1st, NYR 2020 3rd, NYR 2021 1ST
+ Buchnevich [rfa, next season 3.25 per] + Deangelo [deal pending project 5.5 ish mid term, more short term, less long term]

to NYR
OTT 2020 1st 5OA
Broberg
CBJ 2020 and 2021 2nd

Analysis:
Oil gets the pick it wants
Rangers the next pick + Broberg
Sens get ample 1sts and other pick value, top RD to pair w/Chabot plus a guy who can play either W first or second line

--------
separate deal
OTT 2021 4th + NYR 2020 6th + three 2020 7ths (NYR, NAS, VAN)
+ Smith 4.35 expires next season, bonus already paid
for
Gaborik rights 4.875 ltir + Sens 2021 3rd

On paper I expect OTT saves a little money and gets lesser picks to let NY upgrade from OTT 4 to OTT 3 next year.

Are you stoned?

This might be the most ridiculous proposal I've seen in a long ass time.