Value of: #3 or #5 picks
- Thread starter dumbdick
- Start date
CatchyTune
JOHN TAVARES IS A MAPLE LEAF
Those guys will be on ELCs for the next 3 years. I would just hope Melnyk is out by the time they need new deals.
Taytro
Registered User
SingnBluesOnBroadway
Retired
Wouldn’t the players they pick at 3 and 5 qualify as cost-controlled assets?
CraigsList
In Conroy We Trust
Youth - 18 years old, check
Picks - 3rd and 5th OA, check
Controlled assets - 3 year ELC's, check.
...?
dumbdick
Galactic Defender
- May 31, 2008
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Looking for quantity of young talented players to fill our whole roster with talent, vs. 2 guys that together might draw so much money that we can't ice much else to support them. Pre-empting a future budget crunch by offering quality for quantity now. Sens fans can't have nice things.
Puikiou
Registered User
- Oct 15, 2013
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Having two Top 5 picks is a very rare thing. Sens basically a lock to come out of this draft with at least one young star.
izzy
go
though its not something the sens should do, its like people arent reading OPs reasoning
Jerzey Devil
Jerzey-Duz-It
dumbdick
Galactic Defender
- May 31, 2008
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The response to this makes me think it's an even smarter idea. If GMs overvalue picks even half as much as fans do, I'm even more sold.
Here are the #3OA, 2005-2015:
Jack Johnson, Jonathan Toews, Kyle Turris, Zach Bogosian, Matt Duchene, Erik Gudbranson, Jonathan Huberdeau, Alex Galchenyuk, Jonathan Drouin, Leon Draisaitl, Dylan Strome
...and here are the #5OA, 2005-2015
Carey Price, Phil Kessel, Karl Alzner, Luke Schenn, Brayden Schenn, Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Strome, Morgan Rielly, Elias Lindholm, Michael Dal Colle, Noah Hanifin
Obviously lots of superstars in there that are mostly only available through the draft (Price, Kessel, Toews, Duchene, Huberdeau, Draisaitl, Reilly, Lindholm)....but lots of duds in there too.
To my earlier point, if the sens hit on the picks we get superstars that we'll have difficulty surrounding with enough talent to build a contender. Karl at $11.5M would have sunk us. To stay in our budget, we'd be icing trash on other parts of the roster. So we might "win" the pick selection, but short of a new richer owner, I don't think we're winning the cup that way.
Alternatively, if one or both picks miss or give us just an average player, we'd be wishing we could go back and trade the picks when we had the chance.
So, you offer me a deal around a good young upward-trending cost-controlled player + a prospect with a high ceiling and good trajectory and a late 1st, and I'm taking it. Let some other team with deeper pockets see if it's Carey Price or Luke Schenn hiding in the #5 box.
Of course, trades like this never happen, and sens fans would absolutely revolt (even more than they are currently). But they're winnable trades. It's just not a very sexy thing to do.
Here are the #3OA, 2005-2015:
Jack Johnson, Jonathan Toews, Kyle Turris, Zach Bogosian, Matt Duchene, Erik Gudbranson, Jonathan Huberdeau, Alex Galchenyuk, Jonathan Drouin, Leon Draisaitl, Dylan Strome
...and here are the #5OA, 2005-2015
Carey Price, Phil Kessel, Karl Alzner, Luke Schenn, Brayden Schenn, Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Strome, Morgan Rielly, Elias Lindholm, Michael Dal Colle, Noah Hanifin
Obviously lots of superstars in there that are mostly only available through the draft (Price, Kessel, Toews, Duchene, Huberdeau, Draisaitl, Reilly, Lindholm)....but lots of duds in there too.
To my earlier point, if the sens hit on the picks we get superstars that we'll have difficulty surrounding with enough talent to build a contender. Karl at $11.5M would have sunk us. To stay in our budget, we'd be icing trash on other parts of the roster. So we might "win" the pick selection, but short of a new richer owner, I don't think we're winning the cup that way.
Alternatively, if one or both picks miss or give us just an average player, we'd be wishing we could go back and trade the picks when we had the chance.
So, you offer me a deal around a good young upward-trending cost-controlled player + a prospect with a high ceiling and good trajectory and a late 1st, and I'm taking it. Let some other team with deeper pockets see if it's Carey Price or Luke Schenn hiding in the #5 box.
Of course, trades like this never happen, and sens fans would absolutely revolt (even more than they are currently). But they're winnable trades. It's just not a very sexy thing to do.
flotheaction
flotheaction
dude, you make less sense than Melnyk. stay off the drugs.
the real logic would be you get these stars with the picks, contend in a few years and then when they are young while being at the top of their value you trade one for an even bigger return than you would get now.
what you have proposed is loser mentality. no way it ever happens. any GM operating like this should be fired.
You take the picks and hope they become superstars. Then you hope you win a cup in those ELC years. If they become too expensive, you get rid of expensive veterans. Or you trade the young superstar and start the cycle again. Similar to what they already did with Karlsson and co.
The cry of poverty is less effective in that they just signed Chabot to an $8M by 8 yr contract.
You make the picks and deal with the budget later...
You make the picks and deal with the budget later...
Roof Daddy
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- Apr 1, 2008
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As an Oil fan I would offer Broberg + our 1st (20th OA currently) for either 3rd OA straight up or 5th OA + OTT 2nd (33rd OA).
phlocky
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- Jan 2, 2007
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My fellow Flyers fans may want to kill me for this but I'd offer up one of Myers (our best defensive "prospect" even though this is in reality his rookie season) or Frost (our best forward and center prospect) plus our 1st this year (who knows where it lands, probably south of 20) for the #3 pick. I then use the #3 puck to select Drysdale. Yes we either lose our best young RHD dman or our best future #2 center prospect and our 1st this year (in which with how deep this draft is we could add another top end player) but Drysdale would most likely give us an elite RHD to pair with Provo on the top pairing
Edit: if it helps, if you pick Frost over Myers (we have a crap ton of forward prospects and Frost would be a waste as our #3 center or even bumped out to wing depending on Patrick coming back) and we don't have an RHD as capable as Myers, I'd even include either Ghost (say what you want about him) or our 1st next year.
A defense of Provo/Drysdale at the top and Sanheim/Myers on the 2nd pairing may be the best in the league in 2 to 3 years.
Edit: if it helps, if you pick Frost over Myers (we have a crap ton of forward prospects and Frost would be a waste as our #3 center or even bumped out to wing depending on Patrick coming back) and we don't have an RHD as capable as Myers, I'd even include either Ghost (say what you want about him) or our 1st next year.
A defense of Provo/Drysdale at the top and Sanheim/Myers on the 2nd pairing may be the best in the league in 2 to 3 years.
Last edited:
Benstheman
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Tkachuk Norris
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Tkachuk Norris
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On second thought
Trade 1:
If Stutzle was on the board I offer
Matt Tkachuk for #3.
(Not sure if I would do it for Byfield, haven’t seen enough of him outside the WJC)
Trade two:
Valimaki or Hanifin + Flames first round pick (if we lose the play in round it’s like 11th overall)
for third overall.
There should be a really good player on the board still (Quinn, Lundell, maybe a Rossi or Perfetti falls). Doubt this is as enticing to Ottawa though. Not sure I like it as a Calgary fan as I think we are selling low on two stud LD. And the gap in this draft from 3 to 11 might not be as huge as in most drafts. but at the same time you gotta give up your best young assets to get a potential 1C.
Trade 1:
If Stutzle was on the board I offer
Matt Tkachuk for #3.
(Not sure if I would do it for Byfield, haven’t seen enough of him outside the WJC)
Trade two:
Valimaki or Hanifin + Flames first round pick (if we lose the play in round it’s like 11th overall)
for third overall.
There should be a really good player on the board still (Quinn, Lundell, maybe a Rossi or Perfetti falls). Doubt this is as enticing to Ottawa though. Not sure I like it as a Calgary fan as I think we are selling low on two stud LD. And the gap in this draft from 3 to 11 might not be as huge as in most drafts. but at the same time you gotta give up your best young assets to get a potential 1C.
WingsMJN2965
Registered User
- Oct 13, 2017
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#4 for #3 and Bobby Ryan.
Makes little sense as a hockey trade, but basically Detroit pays Melnyk $15M to move up one spot. And, well, it is Melnyk.
Makes little sense as a hockey trade, but basically Detroit pays Melnyk $15M to move up one spot. And, well, it is Melnyk.
The OP is exploring creative ways to work w/the hand dealt. For at least having an open mind, he should be applauded.
If all things are =, coke for pepsi offers little upside.
If a team is thin, better quality for multiples of still good quality can be effective.
Unlike basketball where a Jordan or James can weigh too much, hockey is still enough of a team game that a McDavid or Eichel get nowhere until enough help arrives.
3 way
to Oil
2020 3OA [OTT via SJ]
to Sens
+ EDM 2020 1st, NYR 2020 1st, CAR/TOR 2020 1st, NYR 2020 3rd, NYR 2021 1ST
+ Buchnevich [rfa, next season 3.25 per] + Deangelo [deal pending project 5.5 ish mid term, more short term, less long term]
to NYR
OTT 2020 1st 5OA
Broberg
CBJ 2020 and 2021 2nd
Analysis:
Oil gets the pick it wants
Rangers the next pick + Broberg
Sens get ample 1sts and other pick value, top RD to pair w/Chabot plus a guy who can play either W first or second line
--------
separate deal
OTT 2021 4th + NYR 2020 6th + three 2020 7ths (NYR, NAS, VAN)
+ Smith 4.35 expires next season, bonus already paid
for
Gaborik rights 4.875 ltir + Sens 2021 3rd
On paper I expect OTT saves a little money and gets lesser picks to let NY upgrade from OTT 4 to OTT 3 next year.
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