23rd Overall - Conner Bleackley

[cgf]

I would have went with Krebs... I think cgf is underrating the kid, he wasn't a top 5 talent, but he's a top 10 sort and should be a good hockey player. His injury caused some questions, rightfully so, and he's not to 100% himself yet. I think his +2 season is going to be a really good one. Now saying that, in hindsight, Harley or McMichael would have been excellent selections and that would be tough to decide from for me. I really underrated Harley and considering where I would have gone at 4, hindsight, he would be been my selection.

With all of that... Newhook is not what I'd call safe. He's a raw prospect with holes in his game, but some real talent.

I know I'm on the low side for Krebs, but even if you believe in his skill more than I do, we're talking what, a regular 50 point guyin his prime? 60+? PPG? Unless you think it's one of the latter two -- and believe his defense won't just be good, but elite if it's the 2nd option rather than the third -- I dunno how you make a compelling case for him in the top 5...much less #3...without putting way too much weight on various "safe" traits

 

[henchman21]

I know I'm on the low side for Krebs, but even if you believe in his skill more than I do, we're talking what, a regular 50 point guyin his prime? 60+? PPG? Unless you think it's one of the latter two -- and believe his defense won't just be good, but elite if it's the 2nd option rather than the third -- I dunno how you make a compelling case for him in the top 5...much less #3...without putting way too much weight on various "safe" traits

I could potentially see 60, but I wouldn't bet on it. Krebs to me looks like a solid 2nd line player that has high end defense and ends up a captain. I think there is good value in that and I think the draft was fairly mediocre overall. That would push him up. Up to 3 sounds crazy, but I don't doubt that somebody would. Teams rate players all over the map.

 

[Pokecheque]

I know I'm on the low side for Krebs, but even if you believe in his skill more than I do, we're talking what, a regular 50 point guyin his prime? 60+? PPG? Unless you think it's one of the latter two -- and believe his defense won't just be good, but elite if it's the 2nd option rather than the third -- I dunno how you make a compelling case for him in the top 5...much less #3...without putting way too much weight on various "safe" traits

Well, from what I understand Krebs projects to be a very good two-way player. What he lacks in pure production he will make up for in driving play and defensive ability.

 

[cgf]

I could potentially see 60, but I wouldn't bet on it. Krebs to me looks like a solid 2nd line player that has high end defense and ends up a captain. I think there is good value in that and I think the draft was fairly mediocre overall. That would push him up. Up to 3 sounds crazy, but I don't doubt that somebody would. Teams rate players all over the map.

I get that. What I was trying to get at, is that...unless that scout just rates Krebs' skill-level much more than do you or I...they'd really need to over-rate leadership & grittiness/under-rate skill & creativity in the way that they assess prospects to claim Krebs was the 3rd best prospect in even this class.

If it's just different reads on his talent-level & that scout thinks Krebs is a PPG-selke contender in the making; then we're good & I have no qualms...that sort of disagreement is what makes this stuff fun.

But if that scout agrees that Krebs peaks around 60 once or twice, and is still pumping his tires as the 3rd pick because-Intangiblez...then that's the exact sort of out-dated thinking that annoys me.

 

[henchman21]

But if that scout agrees that Krebs peaks around 60 once or twice, and is still pumping his tires as the 3rd pick because-Intangiblez...then that's the exact sort of out-dated thinking that annoys me.

Isn't that Landy in a nutshell? Hit 60 twice and 70 once... maybe it will happen another time or two, but mostly he's a 50s guy that will put over 20 goals, play 2 way hockey, and be a captain. We didn't and don't really seem to have a problem with Landy at #2...

 

[BaconNater]

Is it weird that the last 2 mid first rounders the Avs picked with Kaut and Newhook are projected to be completely different? Like style wise and how they project to turn out?

Maybe its my below average draft strategy knowledge but I just thought that was interesting.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

Isn't that Landy in a nutshell? Hit 60 twice and 70 once... maybe it will happen another time or two, but mostly he's a 50s guy that will put over 20 goals, play 2 way hockey, and be a captain. We didn't and don't really seem to have a problem with Landy at #2...

That immediately made me think of Landeskog, too.

 

[cgf]

Isn't that Landy in a nutshell? Hit 60 twice and 70 once... maybe it will happen another time or two, but mostly he's a 50s guy that will put over 20 goals, play 2 way hockey, and be a captain. We didn't and don't really seem to have a problem with Landy at #2...

That's a step down from Landy in every respect...but tbh I don't think Landy should be a top 5 pick in most drafts; even if (at the time) I was rooting for us to tank for Landy while we were still getting our asses kicked by SJ in the playoffs.

 

[henchman21]

That's a step down from Landy...and tbh I don't think Landy should be a top 5 pick in most drafts. Even if (at the time) I was rooting for us to tank for Landy while we were still getting our asses kicked by SJ in the playoffs.

Krebs projects more as a center than a wing, which I'd argue puts that 60 twice projection above Landy. To me it is splitting hairs between. If you look at the history of the #3 pick, there are some real hits and some real misses over the years. Getting a sure thing 55-60 point center that is a future captain doesn't seem so bad compared to Drouin, Chucky, Gudbranson, Bogo, Turris, etc. I don't think Krebs is a sure thing and I'm not sure he ends up a center (why I'm more around 10 than 3)... But if you guarantee I'm getting a 60 point 2 way center at #3, I'm probably taking that player. That is a high end #2C, maybe a passable #1C.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Isn't that Landy in a nutshell? Hit 60 twice and 70 once... maybe it will happen another time or two, but mostly he's a 50s guy that will put over 20 goals, play 2 way hockey, and be a captain. We didn't and don't really seem to have a problem with Landy at #2...

Or dare I say it... ROR?

 

[henchman21]

Or dare I say it... ROR?

Also an example... scoring upticked around the league last year and ROR had a step higher peak year, but overall during much of his career that has been ROR. Now with the way he has been playing since mid November, he will probably pass 70 again and put him clearly in tier higher.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Also an example... scoring upticked around the league last year and ROR had a step higher peak year, but overall during much of his career that has been ROR. Now with the way he has been playing since mid November, he will probably pass 70 again and put him clearly in tier higher.

True he is pacing for 70 again.

 

[cgf]

Krebs projects more as a center than a wing, which I'd argue puts that 60 twice projection above Landy. To me it is splitting hairs between. If you look at the history of the #3 pick, there are some real hits and some real misses over the years. Getting a sure thing 55-60 point center that is a future captain doesn't seem so bad compared to Drouin, Chucky, Gudbranson, Bogo, Turris, etc. I don't think Krebs is a sure thing and I'm not sure he ends up a center (why I'm more around 10 than 3)... But if you guarantee I'm getting a 60 point 2 way center at #3, I'm probably taking that player. That is a high end #2C, maybe a passable #1C.

A) You're talking guarantee, I'm talking ceiling, those are two very different things as Krebs was no guarantee even if you were high on him before his injury.
B) Landy has a 75pt, a 65pt, a 62pt and a 59pt season; so far. That too is different from maxing out at 60 once or twice. If you wanna play the center card to negate that production gap, I'll counter with the PWF card that Landy holds over Krebs...even if one did think that Krebs is as elite defensively as Landy or ROR*.
C) If that scout views Krebs as not just a plus defender but an elite one, as well; then again fine, different assessments lead to different conclusions...but that's still not a super exciting 3rd overall pick that I'd be gushing about unless we were talking about a perennial selke caliber guy like Bergeron or ROR*; even if it's a reasonable result.

Or dare I say it... ROR?

*ROR has already posted seasons of 77, 64, 61 & 60 pts; which is also a clear step up from hitting 60 once or twice in an entire career.

That's more along the lines of Kadri without the snarl

 

[henchman21]

A) You're talking guarantee, I'm talking ceiling, those are two very different things as Krebs was no guarantee even if you were high on him before his injury.
B) Landy has a 75pt, a 65pt, a 62pt and a 59pt season; so far. That too is different from maxing out at 60 once or twice. If you wanna play the center card to negate that production gap, I'll counter with the PWF card that Landy holds over Krebs...even if one did think that Krebs is as elite defensively as Landy or ROR*.
C) If that scout views Krebs as not just a plus defender but an elite one, as well; then again fine, different assessments lead to different conclusions...but that's still not a super exciting 3rd overall pick that I'd be gushing about unless we were talking about a perennial selke caliber guy like Bergeron or ROR*; even if it's a reasonable result.


*ROR has already posted seasons of 77, 64, 61 & 60 pts; which is also a clear step up from hitting 60 once or twice in an entire career.

That's more along the lines of Kadri without the snarl

I’m saying if you project any center to that level, you make that pick. If a scout had Krebs there, he thinks that highly of him. I don’t but I do think he’s a damn good prospect arguably better than all but Byram on the Avs... and that is closer than some would want to believe.

 

[CobraAcesS]

My consolation with 2016 is that after Jost in the 1st round, there's really only McAvoy and Chychrun. Not a lot of other salt in the wound, not yet anyways

In 2014, it's literally the entire rest of the round that had success on some level

As well, even though we hate on Jost, he's an NHL player, just not an overly good one. He's played 181 games already, deserved or not

Bleackley was a complete, 100% NHL non-factor

That is a lot of f***in salt though lol.

 

[cgf]

I’m saying if you project any center to that level, you make that pick. If a scout had Krebs there, he thinks that highly of him. I don’t but I do think he’s a damn good prospect arguably better than all but Byram on the Avs... and that is closer than some would want to believe.

And that's my gripe. If your projection for a guy's ceiling is Nazem Kadri without the snarl, then that guy shouldn't be a top 3 pick, even if the class is weak at the top & you love that guy...aka why I don't think Pod should've been a top 5 pick in most classes and even in last year's class (who's 2nd tier I had a lot of issues with) bumped Zegras ahead of Pod & stopped arguing with folks who would've picked Dach ahead of him because I couldn't contest the upside argument.

I get that I'm more extreme on Krebs because I don't see him hitting 50, much less 60, and don't think his defense is anywhere near as special as Landy & ROR's defense was at the time of their drafts. So I don't see that same ceiling in him, but even if I do pretend that that was how I saw his ceiling; I would be disappointed with a more-polite-Kadri being all I got out of a top 5 pick.

 

[henchman21]

And that's my gripe. If your projection for a guy's ceiling is Nazem Kadri without the snarl, then that guy shouldn't be a top 3 pick, even if the class is weak at the top & you love that guy...aka why I don't think Pod should've been a top 5 pick in most classes and even in last year's class (who's 2nd tier I had a lot of issues with) bumped Zegras ahead of Pod & stopped arguing with folks who would've picked Dach ahead of him because I couldn't contest the upside argument.

I get that I'm more extreme on Krebs because I don't see him hitting 50, much less 60, and don't think his defense is anywhere near as special as Landy & ROR's defense was at the time of their drafts. So I don't see that same ceiling in him, but even if I do pretend that that was how I saw his ceiling; I would be disappointed with a more-polite-Kadri being all I got out of a top 5 pick.

I theory I really don't disagree with you, but I'd say that you're overvaluing how picks end up playing out. If you get outside the top 2 and settle into that 3-7 range in a draft, you get a lot of hit or miss sorts of players. Getting a high end #2C or low end #1C is about on par with the typical value of those picks.

2009: Duchene - 3, Evander Kane - 4, Schenn - 5, OEL 6, and Kadri - 7
2010: Gudbranson - 3, RyJo -4, Nino - 5, Connelly - 6, Skinner - 7
2011: Hubi - 3, Larsson - 4, Strome - 5, Zibi -6, Scheifele -7
2012: Chuck -3, Griffen Reinhart - 4, Rielly -5, Lindholm -6, Dumba -7
2013: Drouin -3, Jones - 4, Elias Lindholm -5, Monahan -6, Nurse - 7
2014: Drai -3, Bennett -4, Dal Colle -5, Virtanen -6, Fleury - 7
2015: Strome -3, Marner -4, Hanifin -5, Zacha -6, Provorov -7

That isn't exactly the who's who of top end centers and players. There are some great players in that group, there are some real duds, and there are some solid if unspectacular players. You guarantee me a RyJo or Kadri and I think that is hard to turn down. To me, a high end #2C evaluation is pretty damn good and not something to sniff at. You take those 35 players and rank them, I think you'd be hard pressed to rate Kadri lower than 12-14 and could argue as high as 10... which would signal picking him at 4 or 5 wouldn't have been bad.

 

[cgf]

I theory I really don't disagree with you, but I'd say that you're overvaluing how picks end up playing out. If you get outside the top 2 and settle into that 3-7 range in a draft, you get a lot of hit or miss sorts of players. Getting a high end #2C or low end #1C is about on par with the typical value of those picks.

2009: Duchene - 3, Evander Kane - 4, Schenn - 5, OEL 6, and Kadri - 7
2010: Gudbranson - 3, RyJo -4, Nino - 5, Connelly - 6, Skinner - 7
2011: Hubi - 3, Larsson - 4, Strome - 5, Zibi -6, Scheifele -7
2012: Chuck -3, Griffen Reinhart - 4, Rielly -5, Lindholm -6, Dumba -7
2013: Drouin -3, Jones - 4, Elias Lindholm -5, Monahan -6, Nurse - 7
2014: Drai -3, Bennett -4, Dal Colle -5, Virtanen -6, Fleury - 7
2015: Strome -3, Marner -4, Hanifin -5, Zacha -6, Provorov -7

That isn't exactly the who's who of top end centers and players. There are some great players in that group, there are some real duds, and there are some solid if unspectacular players. You guarantee me a RyJo or Kadri and I think that is hard to turn down. To me, a high end #2C evaluation is pretty damn good and not something to sniff at. You take those 35 players and rank them, I think you'd be hard pressed to rate Kadri lower than 12-14 and could argue as high as 10... which would signal picking him at 4 or 5 wouldn't have been bad.

Objectively, it's not a terrible outcome if that's how things play out...still disappointing though. Especially for that to just be the outcome that you are hoping for.

Which I guess is the double-edged sword of picking third. Some years picking third can mean the chance to pick a kid who would be in contention for the top spot in other years, but that is the exception and more often than not you're left lamenting that you weren't lucky enough to pick 3rd in a draft where a Drae, Hubi, Heiskanen, Makar or Seth Jones will still be on the board at that pick.

 

[henchman21]

Objectively, it's not a terrible outcome if that's how things play out...still disappointing though. Especially for that to just be the outcome that you are hoping for.

Which I guess is the double-edged sword of picking third. Some years picking third can mean the chance to pick a kid who would be in contention for the top spot in other years, but that is the exception and more often than not you're left lamenting that you weren't lucky enough to pick 3rd in a draft where a Drae, Hubi, Heiskanen, Makar or Seth Jones will still be on the board at that pick.

I mean, outside a select few, almost all of those players were projected to be more than what they became. Just the nature of the beast of drafting and I really don't think there are absolutes when it comes to drafting outside the top 2 or 3 picks in any given year.. Which is why if you can guarantee a player to hit a high level of play (to me a #2C 2/3D, top line wing all qualify), you pretty much make that pick. If you think there is a question on hitting that level, then you should be evaluating upside. It is pretty remarkable when you look back at drafts and realize just how rare top end centers and defensemen are. Some years you may get three or four... some years you get nothing... most years one or two is all you'll end up with.

 

[cgf]

I mean, outside a select few, almost all of those players were projected to be more than what they became. Just the nature of the beast of drafting and I really don't think there are absolutes when it comes to drafting outside the top 2 or 3 picks in any given year.. Which is why if you can guarantee a player to hit a high level of play (to me a #2C 2/3D, top line wing all qualify), you pretty much make that pick. If you think there is a question on hitting that level, then you should be evaluating upside. It is pretty remarkable when you look back at drafts and realize just how rare top end centers and defensemen are. Some years you may get three or four... some years you get nothing... most years one or two is all you'll end up with.

Yeah, but a lot of those guys who amounted to nothing were once thought to be "guarantees" as well. "Playing it safe" hasn't actually lowered your chances of whiffing, so at 3/4, I'd rather take the biggest swing that you feel good about...which will undoubtedly vary from year-to-year.

 

[Newusername]

Lol I met this guy 1 month after he was drafted, I remember him saying “I made the nhl with this body type, imagine what I could do if I was in shape.”

 

[S E P H]

And the issue beyond that is, yeah, the Bleackley pick was not even Pracey's worst (I'd say Heard probably was), nor was it frowned upon at the time, but the issue is he didn't just fail there...he failed EVERYWHERE save for one great draft in 2009 and a couple lottery picks.

Personally, I had Bleackley as a 2nd rounder who would probably be picked higher than he should. The lad(s) I wanted was Goldobin or Ivan Barbashev.

This is what I said about him in my final list,

Connor Bleackley, C [Red Deer Rebels]
About: Bleackley is a two-way forward who had enough character to be the Rebels captain as a 2014 draft eligible player. I think Landeskog was the last player to have this happen, and before him? Who knows? All I know is that it doesn’t happen often and proves how much work ethic/character Bleackley has. Connor another one of those players that is good at everything, not great at anything type of player. He has a good shot, good skating, good defensively, and focuses on the little details to win games. I have him here* from 3rd because of questions of how high his offensive game will translate to the pros. If it can, he definitely could be a potential steal.
Comparison: Ryan O’Reilly

* = Here was 8th on my final list, but that draft was pretty damn bad draft which was extremely top heavy. Fortunately, I did have Point above him. Looking back on the draft, there really wasn't anybody worth a mention except a couple lads in the bottom of the 2nd round in Montour and Donato. I don't like when scouts base their list around consensus, but it is what it is.

 

[S E P H]

To me Heard was their worst pick for the simple reason that they reached for him. If they really wanted him they could still have got him with a third or even a fourth round pick.

This is sadly inaccurate, there was another team looking at him in the 2nd round. Don't know which one exactly, but the rumours that kept coming up was old regime Arizona. The lad I really wanted was Severson, but thankfully that draft is far back behind us.

 

[BaconNater]

Lol I met this guy 1 month after he was drafted, I remember him saying “I made the nhl with this body type, imagine what I could do if I was in shape.”

Wtf haha, did he have a taco bell built bod or what?

 

[Balthazar]

Wtf haha, did he have a taco bell built bod or what?

It started on the wrong foot with the Avs because he was too fat IIRC. Looks like he didn't train at all during the summer of his own draft. Avs got pissed off at him at training camp, he later got demoted from captain in his team. All kinds of crap that you're not supposed to see from a supposed "character guy".