23rd Overall - Conner Bleackley

[AvsRobin]

Well, to be fair, one of the few he got right was when he flat-out overruled Pracey and told him the Avs were drafting MacKinnon first overall, so, as much as I also slag the guy...

Well he said we are drafting a C no matter what. I think Pracey wanted Barkov, not Jones. I prefer MacKinnon but.. both phenomenal players of course.

The weirdest thing with Roy was the focus on position during draft. And he was outspoken about it too. But if you actually use that philosophy. Why did Avs go for C in 2013 when they had Duchene, O'Reilly and Stastny but at the same time the top two D's were EJ and Hejda?

 

[Metallo]

Who could have guessed that this pick would miss so bleakly?

 

[cgf]

It's about getting more decisions right than wrong. During the years when Roy had a say in hockey decisions we probably got 75-80% of the decisions wrong.

Especially if we blame him for every move that Roykic made that we don't like, and give Joe credit for the moves they made that we do

 

[AvsRobin]

Especially if we blame him for every move that Roykic made that we don't like, and give Joe credit for the moves they made that we do

Why would we do that? They both obviously deserve credit and blame for anthing that happened under their combined tenure.

But it's a nice coincidence how Avs started acting sensible on the summer of 2016 and a few months later Roy left cause he didn't agree with the direction we were going anymore.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

To me Heard was their worst pick for the simple reason that they reached for him. If they really wanted him they could still have got him with a third or even a fourth round pick.

Siemens and Bleackley at least were picked where they were ranked. Did that make them good picks? Of course not but at least they didn't reach for them. They picked them where many, many others (scouts, media and most likely other GMs) would have taken them. Siemens was worst than Bleackley IMO because scouts should have been able to see that his offense was the product of Elliott and therefore be selected lower in the first or even in the second round. However in those days these kind of dmen still had a lot of value. It was after all before the NHL transitioned to very mobile PMD.

For the record I'm not trying to defend Pracey because obviously he was very bad at his job. Just saying that those two were bad picks mostly in hindsight. At the time they were more regarded as "safe" picks than bad.

 

[AvsGuy]

Wasn't Hishon quite the reach too? Not his fault concussions ended him, but he wasn't exactly the guy to choose mid-first round either

 

[The Abusement Park]

Wasn't Hishon quite the reach too? Not his fault concussions ended him, but he wasn't exactly the guy to choose mid-first round either

A bit. But he was a skilled player that actually seemed to be turning the corner right before his last concussion which kind spiraled everything.

 

[AvsCOL]

A bit. But he was a skilled player that actually seemed to be turning the corner right before his last concussion which kind spiraled everything.

Yeah, I don't hold the Hishon pick as a huge mistake for the Avalanche. He certainly had the upside to become a good NHLer, and unfortunately the concussion issues derailed some very important developmental years. He never really got back on track after that. He was one of the better players in the CHL in his D+1 season.

Bleackly never had anywhere near the upside, he was just a bad pick.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Yeah, I don't hold the Hishon pick as a huge mistake for the Avalanche. He certainly had the upside to become a good NHLer, and unfortunately the concussion issues derailed some very important developmental years. He never really got back on track after that. He was one of the better players in the CHL in his D+1 season.

Bleackly never had anywhere near the upside, he was just a bad pick.

Yeah Bleaks was a “safe” pick. Hishon was a bit more swing for the fences and I’d rather miss on a puck like that.

 

[henchman21]

The Avs always tend to reach when they are mid to late in the 1st, but really most teams do. The lists start varying wildly after the top 10ish in each draft. Kaut's heart issue was a factor, but he was seen more as a 20s guy than a teens guy. Bleaks was more of a 30s guy than a 20s guy. Hishon was looked at as a 2nd rounder more than a 1st (because he had an injury filled draft year, he was labeled top 10ish coming into his draft year). The Avs have their list and pick from it regardless (like most teams). Where I think you question is their ability to judge and place their list correctly. They get outside their top tier, they seemingly get lost now. Kind of the opposite of Tampa, in their top tier they pretty much suck and don't know how to separate top players, but get in their next 60-70 and they are one of the best at rating those players.

The epitome of off the board drafting right now is Arizona, and I honestly have to respect the balls on the table mentality. They had Soderstrom ranked #3 on their list last year and Farinacci in their top 15. Hayton was 3 the year before (Bahl in their top 20 and Jenick was a first round grade). 2016 they had Keller at 4 and Chychrun at 5. When one of their top on the list is dropping, they've been unafraid to move up and be bold in grabbing their guy.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Poor Joey Hishon was by far the most talented of these dudes, though. The skating and puck ability were that of a top prospect with a promising NHL future.

The rest were all garbage anyways; Siemens, Bleackley, Heard, whatever. None of them had any talent to begin with.

 

[AvsCOL]

Yeah Bleaks was a “safe” pick. Hishon was a bit more swing for the fences and I’d rather miss on a puck like that.

100%. I really wanted the Avs to trade up this past draft and go all-in on Zegras or Caufield, instead of settling for a safe pick at 16. Hindsight being 20/20, it's easy to say now, but Newhook was the "safe" pick there.

 

[The Abusement Park]

100%. I really wanted the Avs to trade up this past draft and go all-in on Zegras or Caufield, instead of settling for a safe pick at 16. Hindsight being 20/20, it's easy to say now, but Newhook was the "safe" pick there.

I don’t know if I’d call newhook a safe pick. I mean he’s a prospect with top 6 upside which is what you want to be getting in the middle of the 1st. It’s just on us to make sure we develop him into one.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Ya Hishon ultimate busted because of that hit. Dude was a different player afterwards and missing all that development time certainly hurt as well.


It's scary that Timmins is experiencing something similar. The one thing about Timmins os that he looked like the same player as before when he came back this year which is a positive. But you're potentially now looking at 1.5 years of development lost during the most important years for a young player to find his game.


It's not ideal. Which really sucks because before he tookthat headshot he was looking like a true home run pick and future stud for us.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I would not call Newhook safe at all. I think that's a pretty brutal evaluation of him.


Hes got high upside, and he definitely has a very low floor. He could be a quality 1st line guy if things go well with him. He could also just as easily never play a game in the NHL.


Kaut was a safe pick. Newhook was not.

 

[AvsCOL]

I would not call Newhook safe at all. I think that's a pretty brutal evaluation of him.


Hes got high upside, and he definitely has a very low floor. He could be a quality 1st line guy if things go well with him. He could also just as easily never play a game in the NHL.


Kaut was a safe pick. Newhook was not.

I disagree, but everyone has their opinion.

Newhook was a top-5 prospect at the start of the year, but didn't blow up the BCHL and dropped a bit. His skating alone is going to create a higher floor than most prospects, and his offense was always good in the Canada games where he played with other NHL prospects.

I just wanted a home run swing.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I disagree, but everyone has their opinion.

Newhook was a top-5 prospect at the start of the year, but didn't blow up the BCHL and dropped a bit. His skating alone is going to create a higher floor than most prospects, and his offense was always good in the Canada games where he played with other NHL prospects.

I just wanted a home run swing.

I mean I don’t think there were many home run swings that would’ve been worth it around our pick. Harley and Heinola would’ve been good picks, but we needed a fwd and it’s too soon to decide which picks are good and bad.

 

[Hasbro]

Was it way more of a crapshoot back then? Absolutely! It's much less of one now. Analytics are being incorporated,

Then surely there must be statistical proof that drafting has become more accurate.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I disagree, but everyone has their opinion.

Newhook was a top-5 prospect at the start of the year, but didn't blow up the BCHL and dropped a bit. His skating alone is going to create a higher floor than most prospects, and his offense was always good in the Canada games where he played with other NHL prospects.

I just wanted a home run swing.

What does any of that have to do with Newhook having a limited ceiling? Absolutely nothing.

If everything clicks for him and he can improve his skating a touch more, the dude has top line winger upside, no doubt about it.


But he also isn't going to make the NHL on his skating alone either(Which btw isn't nearly as strong an asset as you think it is). If his other skills dont continue developing he wont be a regular NHLer.


He was definitely a big swing prospect. Unlike Kaut who's a safe projection for the NHL because of his size and all around skill package that projects well to a bottom 6 role in the NHL. But his upside isn't that high because that same skill set doesn't lend itself to being more than a 2nd line guy if everything works out. Newhook is the opposite of that. His skill set could project to a 1st line, All-Star level player if things go great in development. But it doesn't project well to a bottom 6 role especially given his size as well.

If Newhook doesn't make it as a Top 6 forwards its pretty likely he ends up in a same situation as Jost where he's just not really good enough to play any role on a playoff caliber team.

 

[AvsGuy]

I almost expected us to nab Peyton Krebs - I don't know a ton about him aside from the injury, but one scout had him ranked 3rd overall and said any lower would make every team regret passing on him

I don't know how true that is, but if there were a time to take a chance it would be after you already landed Bowen Byram

 

[AvsCOL]

What does any of that have to do with Newhook having a limited ceiling? Absolutely nothing.

If everything clicks for him and he can improve his skating a touch more, the dude has top line winger upside, no doubt about it.


But he also isn't going to make the NHL on his skating alone either(Which btw isn't nearly as strong an asset as you think it is). If his other skills dont continue developing he wont be a regular NHLer.


He was definitely a big swing prospect. Unlike Kaut who's a safe projection for the NHL because of his size and all around skill package that projects well to a bottom 6 role in the NHL. But his upside isn't that high because that same skill set doesn't lend itself to being more than a 2nd line guy if everything works out. Newhook is the opposite of that. His skill set could project to a 1st line, All-Star level player if things go great in development. But it doesn't project well to a bottom 6 role especially given his size as well.

If Newhook doesn't make it as a Top 6 forwards its pretty likely he ends up in a same situation as Jost where he's just not really good enough to play any role on a playoff caliber team.

I said higher floor, not limited ceiling... His ceiling is absolutely high, that's why I mentioned that he was considered a top-5 pick at one point. He just doesn't have the offensive upside that Zegras/Caufield have imo.

 

[Pokecheque]

Then surely there must be statistical proof that drafting has become more accurate.

The lazy method would be to gauge 1st overall picks. The frequency at which they went bust was a lot higher a couple generations ago than it is now. The only one in recent memory is in 2012 with our old friend Nail Yakupov.

 

[cgf]

I almost expected us to nab Peyton Krebs - I don't know a ton about him aside from the injury, but one scout had him ranked 3rd overall and said any lower would make every team regret passing on him

I don't know how true that is, but if there were a time to take a chance it would be after you already landed Bowen Byram

I don't mean to s*** on Krebs, because he's an excellent junior player, will be a likable NHLer & I'm sure he crushed his interviews...but whichever scout said that epitomizes everything that annoys me about NHL scouts and why I want to start tattooing "safe is death" on their foreheads.

Krebs is a high floor kid, but in no way shape or form does he have top 5 talent, even in this class...where the top 5 was wide open after Hughes & Kakko. Krebs will be a good skater (likely even above average) with nice defensive instincts and hopefully he'll be able to consistently chip in 30-40 points...but the ceiling just isn't there to warrant a premium pick cause his best-case scenario is around where JPG is now; which is a really useful player, but not one worth a top 5 pick.

He's basically the center version of Ty Smith. CHL-people will hype the s*** out of him because he's smarter than a lot of CHLers & is an elite skater for that level; but as he rises up the ranks that hype will die off as it becomes clear that he lacks the raw talent to become a premier player at the NHL level; where his burst & shiftiness will no longer give him the advantage they do against other CHLers.

 

[henchman21]

I would have went with Krebs... I think cgf is underrating the kid, he wasn't a top 5 talent, but he's a top 10 sort and should be a good hockey player. His injury caused some questions, rightfully so, and he's not to 100% himself yet. I think his +2 season is going to be a really good one. Now saying that, in hindsight, Harley or McMichael would have been excellent selections and that would be tough to decide from for me. I really underrated Harley and considering where I would have gone at 4, hindsight, he would be been my selection.

With all of that... Newhook is not what I'd call safe. He's a raw prospect with holes in his game, but some real talent.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I'm certainly happy so far with the Newhook pick but I think you all know by now that I would have run to the mike to select Krebs. I'm happy to let the scenario play out but every time somebody brings up the name Krebs I can't help being a little disappointed. I would obviously be very glad to eat crow on this one if Newhook ends up the best player in the NHL. Until then I still believe Krebs should have been the choice.