Line Combos: '22-'23 Roster & Line Combos

[jaster]

View attachment 601781

There's really no difference for Seider from last season and Seider from this season. Expect missing point-scoring.

That's a comparison of last season to last season + 9 games this season. Given that it's only a difference of the 9 games, 2-3% changes in percentiles are not necessarily insignificant.

It doesn't really tell us anything though, because the better comparison, if we want to compare Seider last season to Seider this season, is to compare the 82 games last season to the 9 games this season, but even then we're not gleaning a whole lot given that 9 games is a pretty small sample size.

 

[norrisnick]

View attachment 601781

There's really no difference for Seider from last season and Seider from this season. Expect missing point-scoring.

I'm not sure what the point is here. Adding a 9gm sample to an 82gm sample isn't going to move the needle since you're comparing an identical 82 data points to each other. Obviously the 9 extra games aren't going to have as big of an effect.

Not to mention that a random percentile of WAR is what exactly?

These paywall'd "metrics" leave something to be desired...

edit - what he said ^^^

 

[Henkka]

I'm not sure what the point is here. Adding a 9gm sample to an 82gm sample isn't going to move the needle since you're comparing an identical 82 data points to each other. Obviously the 9 extra games aren't going to have as big of an effect.

There are some players who have had big turnarounds with even smaller sample size. But this is a nice tool as season goes on. Dahlin looks still pretty bad, if we go with 3-year data, but is that smart way to go?

Seider is doing his thing, when on the ice.

We are losing the games on the missing Bottom6 depth (thanks to injuries) right now and maybe for the 3rd D pair.

We are also winning quite much, much more than we should. Thanks to some additions and Larkin. Have to give some credit for the team.

 

[norrisnick]

View attachment 602136

There are some players who have had big turnarounds with even smaller sample size. But this is a nice tool as season goes on. Dahlin looks still pretty bad, if we go with 3-year data, but is that smart way to go?

Seider is doing his thing, when on the ice.

We are losing the games on the missing Bottom6 depth (thanks to injuries) right now and maybe for the 3rd D pair.

We are also winning quite much, much more than we should. Thanks to some additions and Larkin. Have to give some credit for the team.

This just makes me trust the metric even less. Does this guy explain the pretty numbers somewhere? Because on the surface they don't make any mathematical sense. Or is that what you have to pay for?

 

[Henkka]

This just makes me trust the metric even less. Does this guy explain the pretty numbers somewhere? Because on the surface they don't make any mathematical sense. Or is that what you have to pay for?

I wrote to google "WAR metrics explained" and found this from hockeywriters page:

Obviously, it's very team-stat heavy stat.

Just like, Dahlin looked bad on a bad team. Now he looks good on an improved team. Some bad teams drag good players to bad looking numbers.

Seider did look great on a bad team. Now there's no difference for him, on an improved team. He is at the same level, not matter good or bad team.

Single individual having great numbers on bad team (like Moritz Seider last year) = I'll take that guy any day before anyone, and could not worry less about him.

That's my conclusion about these numbers.

 

[Pavels Dog]

View attachment 601781

There's really no difference for Seider from last season and Seider from this season. Expect missing point-scoring.

Analytics are a flawed tool Henkka, you can't use them in isolation like that. You've been watching the games haven't you? Those numbers can't really seperate a fluke goal against from a goal against that happens because Seider had a bad giveaway. But watching the games we can seperate those things.

 

[RRhoads]

View attachment 601781

There's really no difference for Seider from last season and Seider from this season. Expect missing point-scoring.

WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

 

[jaster]

View attachment 602136

There are some players who have had big turnarounds with even smaller sample size. But this is a nice tool as season goes on. Dahlin looks still pretty bad, if we go with 3-year data, but is that smart way to go?

Seider is doing his thing, when on the ice.

We are losing the games on the missing Bottom6 depth (thanks to injuries) right now and maybe for the 3rd D pair.

We are also winning quite much, much more than we should. Thanks to some additions and Larkin. Have to give some credit for the team.

The fact that Dahlin was shown to be in the 13th percentile for WAR through 79 games, and then an additional 9 game sample pulled him up to the 73rd percentile tells me there is probably a flaw somewhere in the reporting of these numbers. Especially when you look at the other categories that don't have nearly as large of a swing. At best, these WAR numbers are useless (and at worst, misleading), because there is no explanation to go along with them, there is no context. As a reader, we are just asked to take them at face value, based on..... clean-looking charts with fun %s and nice colors?

 

[NickH8]

Give me that Larkin Copp connection.
Rangers and Jets fans have said Copp plays best as a compliment to an elite player, let's play him with our elite player.
Copp - Larkin - Raymond
Kubalik - Rasmussen - Perron
Erne - Veleno - Soderblom
Zadina - Suter - Luff

Just pray for the bottom 6. Sunny should be back soon.

 

[norrisnick]

Give me that Larkin Copp connection.
Rangers and Jets fans have said Copp plays best as a compliment to an elite player, let's play him with our elite player.
Copp - Larkin - Raymond
Kubalik - Rasmussen - Perron
Erne - Veleno - Soderblom
Zadina - Suter - Luff

Just pray for the bottom 6. Sunny should be back soon.

Swap Ern and Zadina. Suter/Ern works for an odd reason. That and Joe and Zadina can puck move.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Look, I don't know anything, so nobody should listen to me.

But I wanted to point out that most of the time we have a shiny new rookie and a lot of us place the blame for his poor stats on the fact that he plays with terrible linemates. But in a strange twist of fate, Seider's poor stats are due to him having too GOOD of a linemate.

I'm only mildly amused about this. Please carry on.

 

[Gniwder]

Look, I don't know anything, so nobody should listen to me.

But I wanted to point out that most of the time we have a shiny new rookie and a lot of us place the blame for his poor stats on the fact that he plays with terrible linemates. But in a strange twist of fate, Seider's poor stats are due to him having too GOOD of a linemate.

I'm only mildly amused about this. Please carry on.

Top pair Oesterle!

QUite frankly, I don't think it has anything to do with his partner, but the transition system. Lalonde is all about stretch passes up the middle which isn't what Seider is good at. Under Blash, he had the freedom to carry the puck himself and do whatever he needed to do. Kinda joked about it a few pages ago, but for Seider

Blash > Lalonde

I doubt Seider would have won the Calder if Lalonde was coaching last season, especially considering he also demoted Seider to PP2.

 

[Hinterland]

Give me that Larkin Copp connection.
Rangers and Jets fans have said Copp plays best as a compliment to an elite player, let's play him with our elite player.
Copp - Larkin - Raymond
Kubalik - Rasmussen - Perron
Erne - Veleno - Soderblom
Zadina - Suter - Luff

Just pray for the bottom 6. Sunny should be back soon.

Exactly. I've said it from the beginning. Copp is a great winger or shutdown player. If you want him to score, you need to either surround him with wingers the Redwings don't have or use him as a top6 winger. He doesn't drive play himself but he's easily good enough to keep up with players who do.

 

[SantosHalper]

I don't know know about them lines but, as for the goalies.

Husso #1
Backupkovic

 

[NickH8]

Top pair Oesterle!

QUite frankly, I don't think it has anything to do with his partner, but the transition system. Lalonde is all about stretch passes up the middle which isn't what Seider is good at. Under Blash, he had the freedom to carry the puck himself and do whatever he needed to do. Kinda joked about it a few pages ago, but for Seider

Blash > Lalonde

I doubt Seider would have won the Calder if Lalonde was coaching last season, especially considering he also demoted Seider to PP2.

If Seider is an elite defenseman he should be able to play in both systems.
I think he'll be fine. He'll start getting points now that he's on PP1. He's had a few "3rd assists". It's not like he's stopped creating offense, he's just creating it further back in the play. Once he figure out when he can carry in this system we'll see last years Mo.

 

[Gniwder]

If Seider is an elite defenseman he should be able to play in both systems.
I think he'll be fine. He'll start getting points now that he's on PP1. He's had a few "3rd assists". It's not like he's stopped creating offense, he's just creating it further back in the play. Once he figure out when he can carry in this system we'll see last years Mo.

That's a big IF bud.

I will say it's good for him to learn a different system and develop another skill set. But he's only elite in certain aspects, not his complete game. We'll see how this works out. He is a fast learner.

I was gonna point out that "3rd assist" in my post, under Fester's system Seider wouldn't have gotten enough points to win the Calder. I think Blash was good for Seider and Raymond but not Raz and Zadina. Raz really took a huge step over the summer, really like what he's doing this season.

 

[NickH8]

That's a big IF bud.

I will say it's good for him to learn a different system and develop another skill set. But he's only elite in certain aspects, not his complete game. We'll see how this works out. He is a fast learner.

I was gonna point out that "3rd assist" in my post, under Fester's system Seider wouldn't have gotten enough points to win the Calder. I think Blash was good for Seider and Raymond but not Raz and Zadina. Raz really took a huge step over the summer, really like what he's doing this season.

The Seider we saw last year was a top 15 defenseman, I'd say he's got it in him to be that consistently.
In the end Lalondes system is sound. There has to be responsibility on the players to make some adjustments to fit in it. To be fair both Raymond and Seider have started to look better, and that's translating to Fester increasing their roles in the last couple games back to how Blash was using them.
Edit: also our forwards have been better passers this year. More guys are touching the puck after Seider and before the goal.

 

[Gniwder]

The Seider we saw last year was a top 15 defenseman, I'd say he's got it in him to be that consistently.
In the end Lalondes system is sound. There has to be responsibility on the players to make some adjustments to fit in it. To be fair both Raymond and Seider have started to look better, and that's translating to Fester increasing their roles in the last couple games back to how Blash was using them.
Edit: also our forwards have been better passers this year. More guys are touching the puck after Seider and before the goal.

The forwards are better passers, the D not so much.

I don't like the pass up the middle scheme they're utilizing. Early last season they were banking off the board to the winger, and that would be my preference.

Agree that the players have to make adjustments but so does the coach,. Can't cling to a system that isn't working, and trust the players to make decisions instead of giving them just one option. When there isn't a good pass opportunity, the D should be carrying the puck, even if it winds up being a dump and chase that we all hate. When the other team runs a trap, sometimes that's the best option.

 

[Ricelund]

So, come January we could be looking at:

Bertuzzi-Larkin-Raymond
Perron-Copp-Vrana
Fabbri-Rasmussen-Kubalik
Soderblom-Sundqvist-Erne
Suter/Zadina/Veleno

Chiarot-Seider
Maatta-Hronek
Edvinsson-Lindstrom
Pysyk/Walman/Hagg

Husso
Nedeljkovic

I wonder if they'll end up sending Soderblom down once the forward group is healthier.

 

[NickH8]

So, come January we could be looking at:

Bertuzzi-Larkin-Raymond
Perron-Copp-Vrana
Fabbri-Rasmussen-Kubalik
Soderblom-Sundqvist-Erne
Suter/Zadina/Veleno

Chiarot-Seider
Maatta-Hronek
Edvinsson-Lindstrom
Pysyk/Walman/Hagg

Husso
Nedeljkovic

I wonder if they'll end up sending Soderblom down once the forward group is healthier.

I'd bet on them doing so. Sunny has never been a great faceoff man. I think Erne - Veleno - Sundqvist would be the 4th line in a situation where everyone is healthy (never)

 

[Gniwder]

So, come January we could be looking at:

Bertuzzi-Larkin-Raymond
Perron-Copp-Vrana
Fabbri-Rasmussen-Kubalik
Soderblom-Sundqvist-Erne
Suter/Zadina/Veleno

Chiarot-Seider
Maatta-Hronek
Edvinsson-Lindstrom
Pysyk/Walman/Hagg

Husso
Nedeljkovic

I wonder if they'll end up sending Soderblom down once the forward group is healthier.

If.... in the 1:1 billion chance scenario that everyone is healthy, I think Elmer does get sent down. He needs work on his defensive zone play.

Also, it would appear that Fester is warming up to Suter, and Vrana won't start in the top 6 after a long layoff and mental health issues. Regardless of what his mental health issue is, it's best to start out in a lower stress situation.

Bertuzzi-Larkin-Raymond
Perron-Copp-Kub
Erne-Rasmussen-Sunny
Fabbri/Zadina-Suter/Veleno-Vrana


That is one helluva 4th line, lol.

 

[WF19]

So, come January we could be looking at:

Bertuzzi-Larkin-Raymond
Perron-Copp-Vrana
Fabbri-Rasmussen-Kubalik
Soderblom-Sundqvist-Erne
Suter/Zadina/Veleno

Chiarot-Seider
Maatta-Hronek
Edvinsson-Lindstrom
Pysyk/Walman/Hagg

Husso
Nedeljkovic

I wonder if they'll end up sending Soderblom down once the forward group is healthier.

Pretty solid lineup if you as me. Everyone will still think im crazy and it is early but that is actually some serious depth, Enough to not only make the playoffs but make some.noise too.Sure we don't have a matthews that will score 60 or 100pt elite forward but if you look at player potential there is Larkin,Bert,Vrana,Raymond,Perron,Kubalik that should all score at least 20. I think.Larkin, Kubalik and Raymond all push between 70 and PPG.


I'm not even gonna say i hope they make the playoffs this year, i want to see something crazy like finals or conference champs or screw it let's go for the Cup. if Vegas can make the finals in their first year, there is no reason this team csn't do it either. Aside from guys like Zadina and Erne we had proven players last year and Yzerman brought in nothing but competitive players or winners this year. Husso is also a huge wildcard, could be another meh goalie or he could turn into the signing of the year and put up Vezina numbers.

Long story short, i'm done being so pessimistic. It's time to.realize this team isn't a joke anymore. It's a great time to be a Wings fan again after some painful years. Also, all my buddies are hugeee Leafs fans and i am loving watching that team implode this year..

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Long story short, i'm done being so pessimistic. It's time to.realize this team isn't a joke anymore. It's a great time to be a Wings fan again after some painful years. Also, all my buddies are hugeee Leafs fans and i am loving watching that team implode this year..

 

[SantosHalper]

Funny how that bum Suter got lucky again, amazing how good linemates can elevate mediocre player.

 

[Henkka]

Funny how that bum Suter got lucky again, amazing how good linemates can elevate mediocre player.

I was said to be crazy when I bought up how Pius Suter was equally good as Lucas Raymond last season 5-on-5.

This season Suter has been much better.

Individual P/60.
Suter 1.96
Raymond 1.05

This also doesn't count Suter's scoring short-handed.

From last 2 seasons combined, Suter is our 5th best producer (per 60) at ES, after Vrana, Kubalik, Larkin and Bertuzzi.