OT: 2024 Washington Commanders off-season thread: change we can believe in!

[ynotcaps]

Who is to say Maye hasn't spent the last 4 months working on his footwork? That's not the hardest skill to work on and develop. And he could be much better come week 1 almost 9 months removed from his last UNC game.
Worst case with picking Maye is he sits for some amount a time and we suck again and get a another high pick to use on a top tackle to protect Maye.

I know I've said it before, but I'll repeat it here: next year doesn't appear to have one guy who is on the level of the top 3 or 4 guys this year. A lot can change, obviously, but I feel like this is the year to pop big for an elite OT -- even if that means using next year's first to get us in that position.

Assuming we take our franchise QB this year (whichever guy it is), the biggest hole we have is franchise LT. If that guy is also available in this draft, than you are getting far more value for that unknown '25 first rounder by spending it this year.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Mangini just comped Maye to Sam Darnold on the Herd

 

[Roric]

Former Football Outsiders guy

Elite, average or bust? We projected NFL careers for the top seven quarterback prospects

Projections for the 2024 class​

Caleb Williams, USC
Consensus Big Board: 1

MEAN PROJECTION	0.61 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	28.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.8%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	24.1%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	21.2%

Williams is the consensus top quarterback in this draft for good reason. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 and followed it up with a very strong 2023. He threw for more yards per attempt (9.36) and had a higher completion rate (68.6%) than he did in 2022, despite USC's overall struggles. He has an elite arm and exceptional playmaking ability, which is reflected in both his passing and his rushing numbers. In addition, he has a consistent track of success, excelling ever since he took Spencer Rattler's starting job at Oklahoma in 2021. If the Chicago Bears decide to draft him first overall, QBASE raises no objection.

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Drake Maye, North Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 2

MEAN PROJECTION	0.03 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	49.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.6%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	16.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	8.9%

Maye is viewed by many as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. However, QBASE is more skeptical, because relative to the other prospects, his college statistics were not that impressive (for instance, his 63.3 completion percentage in 2023). In addition, Maye was only a two-year starter, and his 2023 performance regressed relative to 2022.
Yes, there were circumstances at the North Carolina program that may be responsible for that decline, such as the departure of Maye's top two receivers for the NFL (Josh Downs and Antoine Green). And there are quarterbacks with relatively lackluster college statistics who have excelled in the pros, such as Josh Allen. Maye's great arm talent and skill make him a strong candidate to do so. But college statistics are correlated with NFL success here, so Maye's projection is lower than it would be otherwise.

---

Jayden Daniels, LSU
Consensus Big Board: 4

MEAN PROJECTION	0.34 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	37.7%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	27.2%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	20.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	14.4%

Daniels put up video game numbers in 2023, claiming the Heisman Trophy in the process. His passer rating of 208.0 was an FBS record, and he completed 72.2% of his passes for 11.7 yards per attempt. Not only that, but his 8.4 rushing yards per attempt exceeded every one of Lamar Jackson's seasons at Louisville.
However, there are still concerns. He is a one-year wonder who took too many sacks, he got to throw to a projected top-10 pick in Malik Nabers, and teams will worry about his ability to stay healthy because he runs so much at a slender 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Then again, the last time a Heisman-winning one-year wonder with an elite receiver came out of LSU (Joe Burrow), it worked out well for the team that drafted him. Ultimately, QBASE favors Daniels over Maye as QB2 in this class.

---

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Consensus Big Board: 6

MEAN PROJECTION	0.20 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	45.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	26.3%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	17.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	10.1%

McCarthy's 2023 numbers were not as exceptional as Daniels', but in leading Michigan to victory in the College Football Playoff, he did everything the Wolverines asked. He was efficient (72.3% completion percentage), he protected the football (just four interceptions all season) and he picked up yards on the ground when necessary (202 rushing yards and 3.2 per attempt). He was only a two-year starter, and like Daniels, he has shot up draft boards late, both of which hurt his projection. But coach Jim Harbaugh really likes him, calling him the best quarterback in Michigan history (even though Tom Brady went there).

 

[Ridley Simon]

View attachment 850364

I'd go but commanders field is like 90 minutes away and with work the next day...

Does it matter that they used the old uniforms and helmets?

Damn, why can’t we get those back? At least the uni’s? BOOOOOOO

 

[Ridley Simon]

Oh they can definitely go wrong with either one. Despite all the scouting in the world, QBs bust most of the time. The 2nd overall pick has a really high bust rate. There's lot of ways this could go wrong, and I'm an optimist about this staff. Just saying, its not a gimme.


Again, that's not remotely the worst case. The worse case is his accuracy problems magnify under NFL pressure against NFL defenses which disguise coverages much better than college, he struggles like so many highly drafted QBs do, and he becomes a complete bust. The same worst case applies to JD.

I wish this was a "can't lose" scenario we have, but its entirely possible, even likely, that we don't pick the right guy, and again, I believe in this FO. Its just such an inexact science, picking "potential".

So trade down!!! Geez, I’ve only been saying this for a whole EVER here!

 

[kicksavedave]

Former Football Outsiders guy

Elite, average or bust? We projected NFL careers for the top seven quarterback prospects

Projections for the 2024 class​

Caleb Williams, USC
Consensus Big Board: 1

MEAN PROJECTION	0.61 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	28.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.8%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	24.1%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	21.2%

Williams is the consensus top quarterback in this draft for good reason. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 and followed it up with a very strong 2023. He threw for more yards per attempt (9.36) and had a higher completion rate (68.6%) than he did in 2022, despite USC's overall struggles. He has an elite arm and exceptional playmaking ability, which is reflected in both his passing and his rushing numbers. In addition, he has a consistent track of success, excelling ever since he took Spencer Rattler's starting job at Oklahoma in 2021. If the Chicago Bears decide to draft him first overall, QBASE raises no objection.

---

Drake Maye, North Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 2

MEAN PROJECTION	0.03 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	49.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.6%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	16.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	8.9%

Maye is viewed by many as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. However, QBASE is more skeptical, because relative to the other prospects, his college statistics were not that impressive (for instance, his 63.3 completion percentage in 2023). In addition, Maye was only a two-year starter, and his 2023 performance regressed relative to 2022.
Yes, there were circumstances at the North Carolina program that may be responsible for that decline, such as the departure of Maye's top two receivers for the NFL (Josh Downs and Antoine Green). And there are quarterbacks with relatively lackluster college statistics who have excelled in the pros, such as Josh Allen. Maye's great arm talent and skill make him a strong candidate to do so. But college statistics are correlated with NFL success here, so Maye's projection is lower than it would be otherwise.

---

Jayden Daniels, LSU
Consensus Big Board: 4

MEAN PROJECTION	0.34 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	37.7%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	27.2%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	20.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	14.4%

Daniels put up video game numbers in 2023, claiming the Heisman Trophy in the process. His passer rating of 208.0 was an FBS record, and he completed 72.2% of his passes for 11.7 yards per attempt. Not only that, but his 8.4 rushing yards per attempt exceeded every one of Lamar Jackson's seasons at Louisville.
However, there are still concerns. He is a one-year wonder who took too many sacks, he got to throw to a projected top-10 pick in Malik Nabers, and teams will worry about his ability to stay healthy because he runs so much at a slender 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Then again, the last time a Heisman-winning one-year wonder with an elite receiver came out of LSU (Joe Burrow), it worked out well for the team that drafted him. Ultimately, QBASE favors Daniels over Maye as QB2 in this class.

---

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Consensus Big Board: 6

MEAN PROJECTION	0.20 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	45.9%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	26.3%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	17.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	10.1%

McCarthy's 2023 numbers were not as exceptional as Daniels', but in leading Michigan to victory in the College Football Playoff, he did everything the Wolverines asked. He was efficient (72.3% completion percentage), he protected the football (just four interceptions all season) and he picked up yards on the ground when necessary (202 rushing yards and 3.2 per attempt). He was only a two-year starter, and like Daniels, he has shot up draft boards late, both of which hurt his projection. But coach Jim Harbaugh really likes him, calling him the best quarterback in Michigan history (even though Tom Brady went there).

All hail the great and powerful... um... QBASE? What team did he play for?

 

[ynotcaps]

So trade down!!! Geez, I’ve only been saying this for a whole EVER here!

OK, but here's where @Roric 's post comes in (perfect timing!)

If you trust the source -- not as "ESPN," but as a data analyst using a statistics-based formula -- at #2OA can get you a QB who has a 62.3% chance to be at least an "adequate starter," with a 14.4% chance to be "elite" at the most important position in the sport. (For those who prefer other guys, plug their numbers in.) In your estimation, is that worth the pick? Given it's been 30+ years since we've had elite performance (Rypien in last SB year) and 50+ years since we've had elite performer (provider of multiple such performances -- Jurgensen), I would say, "Hell, yes!"

It's a little apples/oranges since we don't have that analytical breakdown for other positions that we would fill with assets gained in trade, but given the disparity in positional value -- or value of QBs below that top tier -- that doesn't impact my view.

(LT is probably the second most valuable position, and maybe we could get an Alt w/ a trade down, but what is the value of a franchise LT if he never gets to protect a potentially franchise QB? And no matter how many draft picks we get if we were to trade, there aren't any QBs on the horizon that match the pedigree and traits of the top 3-4 this year, even if we were back near enough to the top to get one of them.)

We're too close to a chance to get something we haven't been able to do since bell bottoms, collars as wide as 747 wings, and mutton chops were in style to NOT take it!

 

[kicksavedave]

So trade down!!! Geez, I’ve only been saying this for a whole EVER here!

Sadly the 3rd, 4th and 5th and 5th picks have a higher bust rate, so thats not our answer

 

[ynotcaps]

All hail the great and powerful... um... QBASE? What team did he play for?

I think he was Neil Lomax's top target at Portland State in 1980.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Sadly the 3rd, 4th and 5th and 5th picks have a higher bust rate, so thats not our answer

Oh stop. Trading down from 2OA isn’t 3rds or higher.

You silly silly man

OK, but here's where @Roric 's post comes in (perfect timing!)

If you trust the source -- not as "ESPN," but as a data analyst using a statistics-based formula -- at #2OA can get you a QB who has a 62.3% chance to be at least an "adequate starter," with a 14.4% chance to be "elite" at the most important position in the sport. (For those who prefer other guys, plug their numbers in.) In your estimation, is that worth the pick? Given it's been 30+ years since we've had elite performance (Rypien in last SB year) and 50+ years since we've had elite performer (provider of multiple such performances -- Jurgensen), I would say, "Hell, yes!"

It's a little apples/oranges since we don't have that analytical breakdown for other positions that we would fill with assets gained in trade, but given the disparity in positional value -- or value of QBs below that top tier -- that doesn't impact my view.

(LT is probably the second most valuable position, and maybe we could get an Alt w/ a trade down, but what is the value of a franchise LT if he never gets to protect a potentially franchise QB? And no matter how many draft picks we get if we were to trade, there aren't any QBs on the horizon that match the pedigree and traits of the top 3-4 this year, even if we were back near enough to the top to get one of them.)

We're too close to a chance to get something we haven't been able to do since bell bottoms, collars as wide as 747 wings, and mutton chops were in style to NOT take it!

Wull — McCarthy is 10% elite vs yer guys 14% elite. So I bet on that 4% and let the chips fall where they may?

Or do we maneuver?

@Roric — do you have Penix and Nix’s #’s, for poops and giggles?

I also wonder what the history of these looks like? (What was Mahomes, Z Wilson, Allen, Trubisky, etcetc)

 

[ynotcaps]

Oh stop. Trading down from 2OA isn’t 3rds or higher.

You silly silly man


Wull — McCarthy is 10% elite vs yer guys 14% elite. So I bet on that 4% and let the chips fall where they may?

Or do we maneuver?

@Roric — do you have Penix and Nix’s #’s, for poops and giggles?

I also wonder what the history of these looks like? (What was Mahomes, Z Wilson, Allen, Trubisky, etcetc)

I move that the words "Zach Wilson" (or any variation thereof) be prohibited on this board.
Anybody care to second?

 

[EroCaps]

McConkey and Pearsall would fit nicely as slot WR in Kliff’s offense and I’m betting at least one of these guys booms.

Legette is just a monster with obvious upside.

And hell, if they do go Daniels, I would not be opposed to moving up for Thomas, who would pair perfectly with Terry.

 

[kicksavedave]

Oh stop. Trading down from 2OA isn’t 3rds or higher.

You silly silly man

I mean if we trade down I hope we don't go lower than 5th or 6th overall. I'm not talking 3rd round, I'm talking 3rd overall.

Point is the lower you draft the higher the bust rate is. Universal knowledge.

 

[ynotcaps]

McConkey and Pearsall would fit nicely as slot WR in Kliff’s offense and I’m betting at least one of these guys booms.

Legette is just a monster with obvious upside.

And hell, if they do go Daniels, I would not be opposed to moving up for Thomas, who would pair perfectly with Terry.

My mock draft addiction has featured all of those guys. McC, Pearsall and Legette all appear to be rising a good bit recently -- McC to the first, Pearsall and Legette to the range where one or even both may be gone by our 2nds (though the latter scenario seems somewhat unlikely.)

If the OL gets run on to our detriment, we should be in line for a really good receiver. The opposite is also true, though to a somewhat lesser extent in terms of quality of player available at our spot.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I mean if we trade down I hope we don't go lower than 5th or 6th overall. I'm not talking 3rd round, I'm talking 3rd overall.

Point is the lower you draft the higher the bust rate is. Universal knowledge.

Well, duh. I saw McCarthy as 4% worse than Daniels (now that these %’s are gospel, and all ).

So 2 to 3 or 4 is more than a 3rd rounder.

And 3rd rounders on their own are starters!

I’d like NE’s 34. That’s my hope. At worse. 2 to 3. Take whatever is left over.

IF they are high and hard on Daniels. Which they may be, for. What I’ve heard.

JJ and the 34 + bs Daniels and nothing.

Obv the worry is JJ and nothing vs Daniels and nothing. I can see that.

 

[Roric]

Oh stop. Trading down from 2OA isn’t 3rds or higher.

You silly silly man


Wull — McCarthy is 10% elite vs yer guys 14% elite. So I bet on that 4% and let the chips fall where they may?

Or do we maneuver?

@Roric — do you have Penix and Nix’s #’s, for poops and giggles?

I also wonder what the history of these looks like? (What was Mahomes, Z Wilson, Allen, Trubisky, etcetc)

These were the others in the article:

Bo Nix, Oregon
Consensus Big Board: 31

MEAN PROJECTION	-0.08 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	54.1%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	24.4%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	14.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	6.9%

QBASE has a somewhat positive projection for Nix compared to his expected draft position. Due to the extra year of eligibility the COVID-19 pandemic granted him, he was a five-year starter (though QBASE only gives him credit for the usual maximum of four years), and he improved every year he played. His 77.4% completion percentage in 2023 is one of the highest in our entire data set, and his passer rating and rushing yards per attempt came in second this year, behind Daniels.
On the downside, his 6.3 air yards per attempt in 2023 was the worst of this year's prospects, and this year's QBASE adds a penalty to account for that. And at 24 years old come Sept. 1 (which is the cutoff date we use for a prospect's age), he is the oldest of this year's prospects, though his age penalty is still much smaller than Hendon Hooker's was last year. Nix is not Justin Herbert -- he did not have the four years of success Herbert had in Oregon, nor does he have Herbert's elite arm strength -- but QBASE still views him as a first-round pick.

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Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Consensus Big Board: 32

MEAN PROJECTION	-0.43 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	68.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	19.4%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	3.5%

Also 24 years old on Sept. 1 (though slightly younger than Nix), Penix played six years of college football. Like Daniels and Nix, he received an extra year of eligibility because of COVID-19. Unlike them, his 2022 performance was comparable to his 2023 showing -- which is good, since he is not a one-year wonder. But he has additional concerns the others do not have.
First, he tore his right ACL twice and seriously injured both shoulders at Indiana, where he played before transferring to Washington in 2022. Also, his rushing yards per attempt took a big step back in 2023 at just 0.2, and he struggled when being pressured out of the pocket, both of which hurt his projection. He has the pocket passing and sack avoidance skills to succeed in the NFL, but drafting him early means assuming a high bust risk.

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Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 87

MEAN PROJECTION	-1.43 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	90.5%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	7.1%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	1.9%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	0.5%

A breakout 2020 season at Oklahoma made Rattler an early Heisman favorite in 2021, but his college career faced a major setback when he lost his starting job to Caleb Williams. However, after transferring to South Carolina in 2022, Rattler bounced back enough to put himself in consideration for a Day 2 pick in this year's draft.
While he did not impress with his legs at South Carolina (1.1 rushing yards per attempt in 2023), he completed more than 65% of his passes in both seasons there, throwing for a career-high 3,186 yards in 2023. Overall, QBASE agrees with most scouts that he is unlikely to make it as an NFL starter, but he can be a workable backup.


FWIW, last year they had Richardson with a bust rate of 80.5%
C.J Stroud bust : 45.4%
Bryce Young bust : 38.3%
Will Levis bust : 68.3%

Bust rates are much lower this year among the top guys. Testament to the crop of QBs.

 

[Ridley Simon]

My mock draft addiction has featured all of those guys. McC, Pearsall and Legette all appear to be rising a good bit recently -- McC to the first, Pearsall and Legette to the range where one or even both may be gone by our 2nds (though the latter scenario seems somewhat unlikely.)

If the OL gets run on to our detriment, we should be in line for a really good receiver. The opposite is also true, though to a somewhat lesser extent in terms of quality of player available at our spot.

Agreed. I was just going to say this as I read you. It’s either OT or WR that will run thru 36&40. But not both (unless CB or DE totally is left alone….which would be fine).

I want another pick before 36. Even 34 (NE) would be smashing. Then use 2 of those 3 to move up to say 16.

Perfect world. 2 to 3, add 34. 36&40 to say 16ish

3=QB
16=OT/CB/WR
34=CB/WR/OT
67=whatever is needed
78=whatever is needed
100=whatever is needed

So that’s me.

Let NE pick “their guy”, knowing that we have one of “our guys” left to choose.

 

[ynotcaps]

Agreed. I was just going to say this as I read you. It’s either OT or WR that will run thru 36&40. But not both (unless CB or DE totally is left alone….which would be fine).

I want another pick before 36. Even 34 (NE) would be smashing. Then use 2 of those 3 to move up to say 16.

Perfect world. 2 to 3, add 34. 36&40 to say 16ish

3=QB
16=OT/CB/WR
34=CB/WR/OT
67=whatever is needed
78=whatever is needed
100=whatever is needed

So that’s me.

Let NE pick “their guy”, knowing that we have one of “our guys” left to choose.

You have opened the gates to hell, my friend. I have been sparing you all my latest PFF mocks, but I've saved a couple that are coming. I'm crashing on a deliverable rest of the day (yeah, yeah, "why am I wasting time here?" -- don't judge me!), but they're coming. Ohhhh, they're coming...

 

[Ridley Simon]

LOL. You and me both. I’ve got quite a few I’ve done. I know ALL of the players!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The ONLY way I trade back if I’m Adam, is if I don’t believe in ANY of JD, DM, or JJM…..then I look to spend a 2nd on Penix or Nix….I’d probably prefer Nix at that point…

 

[ynotcaps]

This is my favorite ever -- less than no percent chance it could ever happen, but, my lord, if it could...

 

[Roric]

This is my favorite ever -- less than no percent chance it could ever happen, but, my lord, if it could...

View attachment 850569

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is my favorite ever -- less than no percent chance it could ever happen, but, my lord, if it could...

View attachment 850569

Wow….dreamy….

 

[usiel]

Who is to say Maye hasn't spent the last 4 months working on his footwork? That's not the hardest skill to work on and develop. And he could be much better come week 1 almost 9 months removed from his last UNC game.
Worst case with picking Maye is he sits for some amount a time and we suck again and get a another high pick to use on a top tackle to protect Maye.

I don't feel this is accurate not all college QBs can conquer their mechanics issue. Some have managed to succeed with not perfect mechanics. Both Mahomes and Allen had mechanics questions coming into their draft years. Mahomes has his draft off season and the next off season to straighten them out. Both were notable in some accounts I've read at their drive and dedication that lead to enough reps to correct their issues.

Basically no one knows how they'll turn out it is just a crap shoot.

 

[Roric]

Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors: Star WR unfollows 49ers on social media amid negotiations about new contract