OT: 2024 Washington Commanders off-season thread: change we can believe in!

[ynotcaps]

Jayden's wearing Greg Brooks's name & number -- nice gesture.

 

[Ridley Simon]

At this point you're just making up things to support your view. He gained 5 lbs from September but he'll lose 10 lbs tomorrow? Come on man!


13 lbs and one inch (plus?) the actual bulk difference is not zero, but its not massive like it was when people thought JD was 205 and DM was 230. 13 lbs is not the 25 lbs people originally thought.

I can’t argue that math .

25 is assuredly greater than 13!

 

[max21]

At this point you're just making up things to support your view. He gained 5 lbs from September but he'll lose 10 lbs tomorrow? Come on man!

Well I wasn’t actually being serious that he will lose 10lbs by tomorrow, either way I think it’s weird he didn’t weigh at the combine if he was truly over 200lbs this whole time

 

[Kazer]

Only some of these analysts say he has the higher long term potential. Some of them also think he has the higher bust probability. Its too easy to pick only those that agree with us to use as the definitive statement.

You draft the QB who you think will be the best pro QB, period. If that's in year one or year 4 says something about the QB and the effort and probability of them ever achieving their potential. One QB, we know can improve year over year. The other (2 actually), we only can hope he does, because we've never really seen it.

You've argued a few times that Daniels improved 'year after year', but I don't really see it. I'll skip 2020 as a weird year (though it actually helps my point):

2019 - 61% Comp percentage; 8.7 Y/A; 149.2 rating; 17 TD - 2 INT
2021 - 65.4% Comp percentage; 7.9 Y/A; 136.2 rating 10 TD - 10 INT
2022 - 68.6 Comp percentage; 7.5 Y/A; 144.5 rating 17 TD - 3 INT

and then
2023 - 72.2 Comp percentage; 11.7 Y/A; 208.0 rating 40 TD - 4 INT

To me, Daniels is a dude who exploded his 5th year due to two top elite NFL receivers and a strong offensive line. The completion percentage did improve steadily but the other factors were even or even backslid (especially in 2021). Doesn't mean we shouldn't take him, but I believe it's important context against Maye and Williams who were relatively flat over their last two seasons:

Williams 66.6 -> 68.6%; 9.1 - 9.4 Y/A and then 168 to 170.1 rating and 42 - 5 and 30 - 5 [TD to INT]
Maye 66.2 -> 63.3%; 8.4 - 8.5 Y/A and then 157.9 to 149 rating and 38 - 7 and 24 - 9 [TD to INT] (bit of a drop)

Since I'm chiming in on this conversation, I'm currently 1 CW 2 JD 3 DM 4 JJM - I just don't agree with this argument. I'm also not sure it matters. Allen wasn't great his final year in college and is doing just fine in the NFL. Mahomes was relatively flat his last two years in college (some improvement but not a ton). Stroud definitely backslid a bit his junior year and did very well. Meanwhile, Zach Wilson had massive improvement from his Sophomore to Junior year (whelp).

 

[Jags]

He gained 5 lbs from September but he'll lose 10 lbs tomorrow?

He weighs in hours before his throwing session on a day where he has plenty of time to himself. Refused to be weighed along with everyone else without the controlled environment. If you think he didn't down a jug of water today, you've bumped your head. With all the focus on his size and multiple outlets publishing that "QBs under 205 don't succeed in the NFL" stat compilation, he'd have been crazy not to.

He created this narrative by refusing to be measured at the combine, so you'll have to deal with the skepticism.

13 lbs is not the 25 lbs people originally thought.

It's probably more than 13, but whatever. The ecto frame, top-heavy build, super slight legs, and his cavalier run/hit tendencies are the things that concern people. Those tendencies are no easier to correct than the mechanics Maye needs to work on. Both are ingrained and will need to be ironed out over time.

The difference is Maye's issues aren't likely to get him murdered in the NFL.

And again, just for clarification, I think Daniels is a fantastic football player, a total blast to watch, and that those "205 or bust" stats are mostly bullshit. But physics is physics.

 

[ynotcaps]

He weighs in hours before his throwing session on a day where he has plenty of time to himself. Refused to be weighed along with everyone else without the controlled environment. If you think he didn't down a jug of water today, you've bumped your head. With all the focus on his size and multiple outlets publishing that "QBs under 205 don't succeed in the NFL" stat compilation, he'd have been crazy not to.

He created this narrative by refusing to be measured at the combine, so you'll have to deal with the skepticism.



It's probably more than 13, but whatever. The ecto frame, top-heavy build, super slight legs, and his cavalier run/hit tendencies are the things that concern people. Those tendencies are no easier to correct than the mechanics Maye needs to work on. Both are ingrained and will need to be ironed out over time.

The difference is Maye's issues aren't likely to get him murdered in the NFL.

And again, just for clarification, I think Daniels is a fantastic football player, a total blast to watch, and that those "205 or bust" stats are mostly bullshit. But physics is physics.

I hear you, and I get it. I do have some concerns. But he ran as much as or more than any QB in the country -- including tons of designed runs -- and didn't miss a game. For 3 years in the PAC 34 and 2 years in the SEC. Oregon, Washington, Alabama, Georgia and all the rest.

It doesn't guarantee he doesn't get broken. But it does say he's not a Tinkertoy.

 

[kicksavedave]

He weighs in hours before his throwing session on a day where he has plenty of time to himself. Refused to be weighed along with everyone else without the controlled environment. If you think he didn't down a jug of water today, you've bumped your head. With all the focus on his size and multiple outlets publishing that "QBs under 205 don't succeed in the NFL" stat compilation, he'd have been crazy not to.

He created this narrative by refusing to be measured at the combine, so you'll have to deal with the skepticism.



It's probably more than 13, but whatever. The ecto frame, top-heavy build, super slight legs, and his cavalier run/hit tendencies are the things that concern people. Those tendencies are no easier to correct than the mechanics Maye needs to work on. Both are ingrained and will need to be ironed out over time.

The difference is Maye's issues aren't likely to get him murdered in the NFL.

And again, just for clarification, I think Daniels is a fantastic football player, a total blast to watch, and that those "205 or bust" stats are mostly bullshit. But physics is physics.

When predicting injuries, past performance is a very good indicator of future performance. RGIII blew out an ACL in college, then did it again in the NFL and it ruined his career. JD missed about 15 minutes (concussion protocol) over 55 starts (never missed a start because of injury) and did much of this in the SEC where the physics is about the same as the NFL. And by his own critics claims, he ran with a reckless style, so he took plenty of hits. And didn't break. 55 starts.

JD also showed a bigger propensity to slide later in the year than he did early on. He's shown he's very coachable. JD's best four games were his last four. DM's worst games came at the end of the year. Take that all with a grain of salt, but JD came alive at LSU after struggling a bit at ASU (the step back in 2021).

Also, JJ was 202 at the start of the season but 219 at the combine. Why is no one accusing him of being on roids? That weight gain is unhealthy, but no one is accusing him of downing a gallon of water.

JD gained 5 lbs in 7 months. There's absolutely nothing suspicious about that. He gained 7 lbs per year for the last 5 years. There's nothing suspicious about that.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He weighs in hours before his throwing session on a day where he has plenty of time to himself. Refused to be weighed along with everyone else without the controlled environment. If you think he didn't down a jug of water today, you've bumped your head. With all the focus on his size and multiple outlets publishing that "QBs under 205 don't succeed in the NFL" stat compilation, he'd have been crazy not to.

He created this narrative by refusing to be measured at the combine, so you'll have to deal with the skepticism.

I mean a gallon of water weighs just over 8lbs….how much do you think this “skinny” guy can drink in short time lol?

I think we’re just going to see more and more star player-types refuse to do much of anything at the combine in years ahead…skepticism be damned…

 

[g00n]

He weighs in hours before his throwing session on a day where he has plenty of time to himself. Refused to be weighed along with everyone else without the controlled environment. If you think he didn't down a jug of water today, you've bumped your head. With all the focus on his size and multiple outlets publishing that "QBs under 205 don't succeed in the NFL" stat compilation, he'd have been crazy not to.

He created this narrative by refusing to be measured at the combine, so you'll have to deal with the skepticism.



It's probably more than 13, but whatever. The ecto frame, top-heavy build, super slight legs, and his cavalier run/hit tendencies are the things that concern people. Those tendencies are no easier to correct than the mechanics Maye needs to work on. Both are ingrained and will need to be ironed out over time.

The difference is Maye's issues aren't likely to get him murdered in the NFL.

And again, just for clarification, I think Daniels is a fantastic football player, a total blast to watch, and that those "205 or bust" stats are mostly bullshit. But physics is physics.

How many pounds of water do you think the average human can drink, and hold? Unless he's dehydrated and prone to retaining water, there should be a 1:1 ratio of water consumed and weight gained.

If he puts on 5lbs of weight in a day that means he drank ~5x16oz bottles of water and didn't piss. The stomach can hold a max of around 50oz so unless he's a camel I'm not sure what did with the rest.

Another scenario is the dude has been binging McDs and pizza for a few weeks. Or legit working out.

I'd say the latter is more likely, unless he's some kind of goldbricker.

 

[kicksavedave]

Jayden Daniels pro day: Inside LSU QB's historic improvement and why teams are confident he'll hit his ceiling

The Heisman Trophy winner is only continuing to get better

www.cbssports.com

Over the past 20 years, only one other quarterback has seen similar substantial development year over year: fellow LSU alum Joe Burrow.

Burrow and Daniels are the only two quarterbacks in the last 20 years (minimum 400 drop backs) that increased their adjusted completion percentage by 4% or more AND their yards per attempt by 3.0 or more. And beyond just those two metrics, Daniels also improved in his accuracy downfield, ball placement across the field, decision-making in the red zone and decision-making as a runner.

The LSU offense drastically dropped the amount of play action they used, likely in part because they trusted Daniels to work through progressions with his eyes on the defense post-snap. And Daniels' vision, anticipation and timing growth as a pocket passer proved them right, as he finished the season as one of the best mid-field throwers, especially on dig, in and post routes, in all of college football.

In my discussions with Daniels, he's shared many of the things he did this past offseason that may have been factors in his substantial and swift development: changing his body physically, fundamental growth with private quarterback coaches Taylor Kelly and John Beck, use of technological resources that LSU's innovative staff supplied, and an unquenchable desire to absorb as much film as possible, both of himself and his future peers at the NFL level.

 

[ynotcaps]

How many pounds of water do you think the average human can drink, and hold? Unless he's dehydrated and prone to retaining water, there should be a 1:1 ratio of water consumed and weight gained.

If he puts on 5lbs of weight in a day that means he drank ~5x16oz bottles of water and didn't piss. The stomach can hold a max of around 50oz so unless he's a camel I'm not sure what did with the rest.

Another scenario is the dude has been binging McDs and pizza for a few weeks. Or legit working out.

I'd say the latter is more likely, unless he's some kind of goldbricker.

I've posted this before, but B. Kelly said on Heisman night that he asked JD to gain 10 lbs before his senior season and he (JD) immediately went to work on getting a plan and sticking to it and he did it.
He knows what he needs to do to get better and he does it. Not saying this isn't true of any of the other guys, but we affirmatively know it in his case. He does what it takes to get it done. You can't ask for more.

Jayden Daniels pro day: Inside LSU QB's historic improvement and why teams are confident he'll hit his ceiling

The Heisman Trophy winner is only continuing to get better

www.cbssports.com

Over the past 20 years, only one other quarterback has seen similar substantial development year over year: fellow LSU alum Joe Burrow.

Burrow and Daniels are the only two quarterbacks in the last 20 years (minimum 400 drop backs) that increased their adjusted completion percentage by 4% or more AND their yards per attempt by 3.0 or more. And beyond just those two metrics, Daniels also improved in his accuracy downfield, ball placement across the field, decision-making in the red zone and decision-making as a runner.

I've been told here that you can't compare JD and JB because... reasons... and such.

 

[ynotcaps]

I mean a gallon of water weighs just over 8lbs….how much do you think this “skinny” guy can drink in short time lol?

I think we’re just going to see more and more star player-types refuse to do much of anything at the combine in years ahead…skepticism be damned…

I useta' drink just over 8 lbs. of, well, something in a short time. Do it long enough and it turns into A LOT more pounds than it starts as...

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I hear you, and I get it. I do have some concerns. But he ran as much as or more than any QB in the country -- including tons of designed runs -- and didn't miss a game. For 3 years in the PAC 34 and 2 years in the SEC. Oregon, Washington, Alabama, Georgia and all the rest.

It doesn't guarantee he doesn't get broken. But it does say he's not a Tinkertoy.

This is why I don’t sweat him getting broken.

I half wonder how RgMe’s running stats his last year in college compared….or if there is a meaningful comparison to be made. I only mention him because the critics here often reference him in getting hurt at the next level…

 

[ynotcaps]

Feels like we've argued maybe everything we can about the top 4. I think we keep it up through Maye's pro day tomorrow, then we get into raging debates about who should be the second QB we take in this draft.

Motion on the floor -- is there a second?

 

[kicksavedave]

I've posted this before, but B. Kelly said on Heisman night that he asked JD to gain 10 lbs before his senior season and he (JD) immediately went to work on getting a plan and sticking to it and he did it.
He knows what he needs to do to get better and he does it. Not saying this isn't true of any of the other guys, but we affirmatively know it in his case. He does what it takes to get it done. You can't ask for more.


I've been told here that you can't compare JD and JB because... reasons... and such.

Was the plan to drink a gallon of water before the weigh in, because I'm told that's the only way to gain 5 lbs in 7 months

Feels like we've argued maybe everything we can about the top 4. I think we keep it up through Maye's pro day tomorrow, then we get into raging debates about who should be the second QB we take in this draft.

Motion on the floor -- is there a second?

Agreed. I'm done defending my favorite pick. If I don't get my pick, I'm going to pout for about 45 minutes, then I'll be OK

I think DM can become a great pro QB along the Josh Allen mold. But I don't want to watch Marcus Mariota for one single play. I'm old, I don't have time for that shit.

 

[Jags]

RGIII blew out an ACL in college

That hit comes when it comes. The SEC isn't the NFL and he's not going to be playing for a stacked team. If he doesn't correct those tendencies, he'll be tempting fate like nobody's business.

If he puts on 5lbs of weight in a day that means he drank ~5x16oz bottles of water and didn't piss. The stomach can hold a max of around 50oz so unless he's a camel I'm not sure what did with the rest.

Another scenario is the dude has been binging McDs and pizza for a few weeks. Or legit working out.

I think he probably did all of those things, and let's keep in mind that I'm not the guy that said 10 pounds or that he was sub-200 at whatever point. I said "down a jug of water" for brevity. My point is that 210 was always a bit suspect for him.

That kid's metabolism and ectomorphic body burn everything. Keeping weight on will always be a challenge. Simply put, yes, I think he inflated his number some today and that his body is what it is. He's not going to get meaningfully bigger.

The ecto kid running recklessly on twigs concerns me way more than the prototypical meso kid running far less and more responsibly on normal legs. That's all I'm saying.

Daniels will have no bigger fan than me if we draft him, but watching him play is gonna give me palpitations...

 

[g00n]

I forgot to add I don't really f***ing care about 5lbs on a QB.

This is serious galaxy brain shit going on here these days, guys. They all can play and they're all probably better than what we had.

 

[kicksavedave]

That hit comes when it comes. The SEC isn't the NFL and he's not going to be playing for a stacked team. If he doesn't correct those tendencies, he'll be tempting fate like nobody's business.

The point was, he took plenty of hits from SEC players who will be playing in the NFL, or who have NFL size and speed, and he never broke. Sure, a guy could fall on his knee and blow it up, but it won't be because of his body type. I have confidence he can and will learn to slide in the NFL, unlike RGIII, who's ego made him un-coachable (ask the Shanahans). As the article I posted above shows, JD is extraordinarily coachable.

 

[EroCaps]

Take Michael Vick, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson and add them up and tell me how many rings they have?

Heard Quinn mention durability and NFC East weather as a factor/concern. That gives me a sliver a hope.

 

[Bananas]

Drake Maye in two years when he’s Daniel’s age will be bigger than today. The Maye frame is significantly better than the Daniels frame. It’s not particularly close.

You draft the QB who’s gong to have a better career not who will develop faster … period.

1: Caleb
2: Maye
3: Daniels

No need to rank the others at N2OA.

I think there is a big enough gap between 1 and 2 to warrant a trade up if Chicago will even entertain that, which they most likely will not.

I can see a very strong thesis for either Maye or Daniels at 2, so I’ll gladly defer to the judgement of the first legitimate brain trust we’ve had in decades. The reason I have Maye slightly higher is I see obvious shades of Allen and Herbert to him. I think he will flourish in the NFL since his traits - arm talent, size, leadership, mobility - directly translate to the NFL. And those traits are harnessed by an NFL level physique. He may need a little extra coaching/seasoning, but we now have a staff in place that can get him there within a year or so, and probably sooner. I don’t give a shit if I have to watch Mariota stink it up for 8-17 games if there’s a pot of gold at the end of that rainbow.

The reason I like Daniels is the elite running trait has proven to give NFL defenses fits, as long as the passing is good enough to keep them honest, which it clearly is with him. If he’s poor man’s Lamar in the running game and rich man’s Lamar in the passing game, sign me the f*** up. I just don’t see him holding up in the league for 10+ years. I think it’ll be electric while it lasts. It’s a bit of a YOLO move, so ultimately I lean toward Maye, but I think these additional tests and interviews they get would probably sway me. If one is separating on the Wonderlic and other analytic tests and interviews, I’d easily go with the person and the processor that I prefer. Impossible to weigh in on that score from the sidelines.

It’s by far the most exciting time to be a fan of this team since RG3’s rookie year. This draft has way more intrigue than that one since nobody knows exactly what route we’ll take. Fun stuff.

 

[ynotcaps]

Take Michael Vick, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson and add them up and tell me how many rings they have?

Heard Quinn mention durability and NFC East weather as a factor/concern. That gives me a sliver a hope.

The exact same number of rings as Herbert and Allen.

 

[ynotcaps]

As for our QB 2, it's Rattler or Pratt, but they're likely to go at least one or 2 rounds too early, so probably not in our draft range. None of the rest of the guys is particularly attractive based on scouting evaluations. (Unless, of course, Peters has his Purdy 2.0 already IDed...)

 

[Ridley Simon]

Was the plan to drink a gallon of water before the weigh in, because I'm told that's the only way to gain 5 lbs in 7 months



Agreed. I'm done defending my favorite pick. If I don't get my pick, I'm going to pout for about 45 minutes, then I'll be OK

I think DM can become a great pro QB along the Josh Allen mold. But I don't want to watch Marcus Mariota for one single play. I'm old, I don't have time for that shit.

This is what truly sucks the most about all of this. Mariota. Damn it. Wish it was ANY other veteran. Then I’d be good with a 1yr starter. Just NOT this one (or Dalton…..yuck).

 

[kicksavedave]

Take Michael Vick, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson and add them up and tell me how many rings they have?

Heard Quinn mention durability and NFC East weather as a factor/concern. That gives me a sliver a hope.

Durability such as 55 starts and 15 total minutes lost to injury. Sign me up!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That hit comes when it comes. The SEC isn't the NFL and he's not going to be playing for a stacked team. If he doesn't correct those tendencies, he'll be tempting fate like nobody's business.



I think he probably did all of those things, and let's keep in mind that I'm not the guy that said 10 pounds or that he was sub-200 at whatever point. I said "down a jug of water" for brevity. My point is that 210 was always a bit suspect for him.

That kid's metabolism and ectomorphic body burn everything. Keeping weight on will always be a challenge. Simply put, yes, I think he inflated his number some today and that his body is what it is. He's not going to get meaningfully bigger.

The ecto kid running recklessly on twigs concerns me way more than the prototypical meso kid running far less and more responsibly on normal legs. That's all I'm saying.

Daniels will have no bigger fan than me if we draft him, but watching him play is gonna give me palpitations...

Come on….that seems very unlikely….