OT: 2024 Washington Commanders off-season thread: change we can believe in!

[Ridley Simon]

No, it's only smoke and mirrors. They are collectively not tipping their hand, partly because it's smart and partly because they really don't know yet.

All the scouting in the world is no substitute for having real sit-downs with prospects and assessing them fully. Ask them about the film everyone else (including you and your scouts) is speculating about. Get a sense of their intelligence, maturity, humility, and leadership. What happens between now and the draft for the teams in real need of a QB is crucially important.

It would be really stupid to have an absolute answer right now, so they don't. And that's exactly what Peters said. DQ was intentionally vague because they don't know, he wouldn't say who if they did know, and it wouldn't be his job to say who regardless.



That's not what I said. I said NE has no reason to move if it's Washington that approaches them because I was replying to what you said about it being "smart to leverage the 2, even if it's only with the Pats..." They would have to 100% know who NE wants AND not want that guy to even entertain the idea, and neither team has any reason to be transparent.

* If DC intends to select Daniels or Maye, they have absolutely no reason to trade back. They will definitely have strong feelings about one over the other unless they're the most wishy washy football experts ever.​

​

* So if NE really wants one of those guys so much that they're willing to pay, they'd have to give up a package worth DC not getting who they want, which only works if DC absolutely does not tell anyone who they really want. This is why we're all so sure that DQ said nothing the other day. We respect his football intelligence.​

​

* If WE are the team that wants to move back as you suggested, it means we either feel VERY, VERY good about a QB that isn't Maye or Daniels OR that our new front office is a bunch of p***yes willing to trade away our agency for some maybes.​

​

* At 3 with no guarantees of moving anywhere, NE has to be confident about more than one guy. Their offense currently has ZERO identity. They have nothing to build around. The upside is when you're starting from zero, you can build around anyone, any style. So why pay anything to move up with a QB class this deep?​

​

I'm really sorry about the length of this, but you have to consider both perspectives and think a few moves ahead. You can't just say "We can get Herbert!" and not look at the $130m cap hit that makes it impossible. You can't just say "Arizona might move up!" when they have zero reason to do so. And you can't just say "Moving to 3 makes sense!" because it can only really make sense to one side or the other because one side has to do something really dumb.

The Pats definitely can't afford the assets and the Commanders shouldn't want to surrender control.

I’m afraid you are losing the forest thru the trees my man.

You keep saying no one knows what the Skins will do. I’m not arguing that (yet you stated above that exactly what you thought they’d do with this quote:

(“Meanwhile, the actual situation is still that we're almost definitely staying at 2 and selecting Maye or Daniels. All that insider talk is horseshit” )

IF the Skins actually want McCarthy, THEN they’d be brilliant to trick the Pats to moving to 2 to take Daniels. There is not rule in place that says “we have to tell you who we want, in order to move out of the slot that you want). All NE has to think it “ok, we can get Daniels at 2 if we give up (say #34 and something else). That’s it. Or they gamble that the Skins are bluffing, they stay Pat, and someone else swoops in at 2 and take Daniels. Or not.

You are paraphrasing my points. None of us know crap, the Skins may be totally lying, or they may be “tongue in cheek” telling the truth. You don’t know, I don’t know. That’s the beauty of it.

I’ve stated all along I don’t see them taking McCarthy at 2. That doesn’t mean they don’t want McCarthy.

So if they actually DO want McCarthy, what exactly do you propose they do here? You synopsis is that they are screwed if they want McCarthy, and must take him at 2. And I think that’s total horseshit. They hold the best cards, at 2.

Could they screw this all up? Absolutely. Could they hit a home run, end up at 3 or 4 or 5, still get McCarthy, and also more valuable collateral? Absolutely as well.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Can’t wait to see the new kickoffs….this should make the kick return an exciting thing again….

 

[bacchist]

Can’t wait to see the new kickoffs….this should make the kick return an exciting thing again….

I'm excited, too!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Kyler Murray Traded to Vikings, McCarthy to Cardinals in Tannenbaum's GM Mock Draft — Bleacher Report

While most analysts are expecting the Minnesota Vikings to trade up in the draft for a quarterback, ESPN's Mike Tannenbaum took a different route to get them…

apple.news

JJ McCarthy rumors suggest one NFL team is about to make a shocking mistake — FanSided

Jan 26, 2024 Follow Fansided In terms of resume, Michigan QB JJ McCarthy has a stellar name, with just one loss in two seasons and a national title to his name courtesy of this past year. However, the thought of McCarthy going as a top-5 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft is a bit much, considering...

apple.news

Pro Football Talk reported Monday that DraftKings Sportsbook has moved McCarthy from +2500 to be the second pick to +500, following his Pro Day workout. This means that the Washington Commanders, who own the second pick of the draft, could take McCarthy.


There are two sides to this. One side that will laugh out loud and mock the Commanders for doing so, which would mostly be Michigan State and Ohio State fans. The others would be the side that causes an uproar and outcry of disbelief at the Commanders. That side is cluttered with several draft analysts who have been hammering a belief that the team will select LSU QB Jayden Daniels or UNC QB Drake Maye.

 

[kicksavedave]

A few things:

1. We don't know who they want, because they don't know who they want yet. So no one else, including any NFL Twitter Jockeys, knows who they want, and they aren't dropping any hints either. "its likely we're taking a QB" is the least newsworthy soundbite from DQ there ever could be. Yeah, no shit, Dan.

2. Once they know who they want, they'll make sure they get that person. If they can be assured of getting that guy with a trade down, they will entertain it. If they can't, they won't. They're in the driver's seat, period. After Caleb, we have the first pick in the draft and our choice of everyone else, and they will leverage it properly.

3. They can say things like "we really liked JJ" after watching his pro day. It doesn't mean they intend to draft JJ, not at 2, nor in a trade down. It can be sincere, but also not an endorsement of their intentions. Same thing about Maye or JD. They can say nice things without it meaning "we're going to draft him". So the rumors coming out lately are just pure click drivers, nothing else is real. The media needs to manufacture stories and this is how they do it - both established national media and the wannabe youtubers with 237 subscribers.

4. We can all have our preferences, but none of us knows with any certainty anything more than anyone else. I have no idea if DM can improve his flaws and become Josh Allen, or if JD can stay healthy in the NFL and be Lamar Jackson Plus. We're all just projecting, but I'm really glad we have competent professionals making the decisions for the first time in 25 years. I'll trust them, even if they don't select my preference. But, as we do, if they get it wrong, I will issue "I told you so's" until the end of time, so there is that. Ya'all will too. Its what we do

 

[Jags]

I’m not arguing that (yet you stated above that exactly what you thought they’d do with this quote:

(“Meanwhile, the actual situation is still that we're almost definitely staying at 2 and selecting Maye or Daniels. All that insider talk is horseshit” )

Yes, that's what I said, because that's the scouting that's been out there for months. Very little has happened since then. All the talk about Daniels rising is pure speculation by the usual talking heads who are more routinely wrong than right. Same with McCarthy until very recently because he had his pro day and there WAS new information to maybe move the needle. But Washington's not going to make their decision before they see the same from the other options AND all the info that can be gleaned from the many, many in-person and virtual meetings they'll be conducting over the next month with all the candidates.

IF the Skins actually want McCarthy, THEN they’d be brilliant to trick the Pats to moving to 2 to take Daniels.

Oh, you should have mentioned earlier that this whole argument was a twabby-esque "We're going to rob some unsuspecting dope blind by trading players we don't want for the best players in the world" kind of thing. I wouldn't have even bothered.

There is not rule in place that says “we have to tell you who we want, in order to move out of the slot that you want).

The mere fact that you're willing to give up total control of the QB you select for a 2nd is a giveaway that you're cool getting someone other than WHOEVER the Pats want, all by itself. That INCREASES the likelihood that NE gets who they want regardless. Still a nominal risk, but worth it for a team that absolutely cannot afford to give up those assets. Only an idiot wouldn't stay put, but again, you're arguing that we're gonna TRICK them because they're so so dumb and we're so so clever. :biggesteyerolleveremoji:

All NE has to think it “ok, we can get Daniels at 2 if we give up (say #34 and something else).

Assuming that "something else" isn't a bag of jockstraps, that's 2 big somethings NE can't afford to give. All NE has to think is, "ok, we might get Daniels at 3 without giving away a damn thing, especially now that DC has tipped that they really might be looking at JJ or someone deeper. We should prolly stay put. Worst case they take our preference and we have to 'settle' for one of the other fantastic options we scouted AND keep our '34 and something else.'"

None of us know crap, the Skins may be totally lying, or they may be “tongue in cheek” telling the truth.

Or they most likely don't know yet because the process is far from over and all the stuff you're parsing for ultimate meaning is exactly what it looks like to everyone else: a huge tray of nothingburgers.

It's like there's one of those cult dudes insisting that everyone give him their life savings, dress up like a Hare Krishna, and jump off the nearest 40-story building to meet The Creator on the planet Twylo. And the whole world's telling you that he's just a crazy dude that wants your money and doesn't know shit, but you don't have time to hear all that cuz you've gotta find some stylish sheets AND get that snazzy haircut before the bank closes!

So if they actually DO want McCarthy, what exactly do you propose they do here? You synopsis is that they are screwed if they want McCarthy, and must take him at 2.

If that ends up being who they want, then yeah, the safest play is to take him at 2 because a trade with NE is wildly unlikely for obvious reasons clearly beyond your understanding, 4 and 5 could EASILY be in play, and 6 might want a QB real bad, too. Screw around and you seriously risk losing out on ALL the best options for no good reason, because no matter what WE do we can't control what EVERYONE ELSE does.

Remember our luck, Rid. We make a deal then can't get JJ, maybe end up with Penix. And he's great, but remember our luck. Penix's leg falls off at his introductory presser, and we're left with Mariota for 17 games next year, but still win enough to bork our draft position because of the other upgrades and coaching.

And maybe we can come back from that, but remember our luck. Penix gets a weird necrosis from the bum limb that turns into the zombie disease we all know is coming, half the population gets eaten by their neighbors, we get hit hardest because we were at Ground Zero, so the team really sucks and we do manage to finally get a #1 overall pick just in time for like the worst (and smelliest) draft class ever.

Maybe some of the flyover colleges will survive cuz they have all the preppers and guns, and we'll get some super elite stud QB from Bama or wherever. Prolly not though, because REMEMBER OUR LUCK.

Or maybe it'll all work out fine. You do you.

And I think that’s total horseshit. They hold the best cards, at 2.

It's not total horseshit BECAUSE they hold the best cards at 2. This is your metaphor, dude. If you're holding the best cards and you do ANYTHING you risk losing a hand you've already won.

Enjoy your trip to Twylo...

 

[Neil Racki]

60% its going to be JD, 40% DM

0% chance we dont take one of those 2

I think my brain is just mushy and lazy .. I just cant get energy to do rabbit holes on "what ifs". I want to. I have time to kill and my office computer monitor is angled so the screen is blocked from others seeing what im doing so I could stop watching office porn in the office and do mock drafts.

 

[kicksavedave]

13:59: "We don't ever want to get into a situation where we're drafting for need. You don't ever want to do that."

Wonder who's been saying this for years?

 

[ynotcaps]

From JP Finlay - some insight into the FO’s QB evaluation process, the JJ McCarthy rumors, and other tidbits from the annual meetings in Orlando.

JPF says something key here that should calm everybody down: they had MICH pro day last week and somebody Skins said "great pro day" -- as, apparently, did everybody in the league. Hence the "JJ could go to DC!" But Peters also said at the league meetings that "we're going to go through our process and one of the things it does is eliminate any recency bias." IOW, newsflash, they're going to do their due diligence.

An anecdote JP shared: during the HC search, Raheem Morris let our search committee know when he got the offer from ATL in case they wanted to strike back, and they said, thanks, but we're going to go through our process. They let him go because they weren't going to be rushed.

We'll all continue to read the tea leaves because that's all we have to do to fill our time until Christmas Night, April 25. But they haven't made their minds up. Nor should they have. There are still miles to go before they (and we) sleep.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So….if as it’s being suggested, and Maye takes a crap ton of time to refine….how long are we talking…..3 years? Does he even sniff starting his rookie year then, or do we plan on parking him as I’ve suggested? Would suck to suffer through Mariota next year…

 

[ynotcaps]

So….if as it’s being suggested, and Maye takes a crap ton of time to refine….how long are we talking…..3 years? Does he even sniff starting his rookie year then, or do we plan on parking him as I’ve suggested? Would suck to suffer through Mariota next year…

I don't know that there's a way to nail that down. Some teams will think he can play right away and others will think he can come in sometime during year 1. And there will be some teams thinking he'll need a full year, and maybe a few thinking more.
But I don't see a team drafting him in the top 5 if that team believes he's more than a year away. Any first rounder that doesn't play year 1 is costing his team the extra contract year that comes with a 1st round pick, and if a guy needs more than 1 year, then the team has fewer than 3 years to see if they're going to lock the guy in. That's a hell of a lot of risk for what should be a slam-dunk pick (as any top 3-5 pick should be).

But, yeah, I'm already on record as being in the "save us, superman" camp if MM has to play for any significant amount of time.

 

[John Price]

 

[Neil Racki]

 

[Ridley Simon]

Yes, that's what I said, because that's the scouting that's been out there for months. Very little has happened since then. All the talk about Daniels rising is pure speculation by the usual talking heads who are more routinely wrong than right. Same with McCarthy until very recently because he had his pro day and there WAS new information to maybe move the needle. But Washington's not going to make their decision before they see the same from the other options AND all the info that can be gleaned from the many, many in-person and virtual meetings they'll be conducting over the next month with all the candidates.



Oh, you should have mentioned earlier that this whole argument was a twabby-esque "We're going to rob some unsuspecting dope blind by trading players we don't want for the best players in the world" kind of thing. I wouldn't have even bothered.



The mere fact that you're willing to give up total control of the QB you select for a 2nd is a giveaway that you're cool getting someone other than WHOEVER the Pats want, all by itself. That INCREASES the likelihood that NE gets who they want regardless. Still a nominal risk, but worth it for a team that absolutely cannot afford to give up those assets. Only an idiot wouldn't stay put, but again, you're arguing that we're gonna TRICK them because they're so so dumb and we're so so clever. :biggesteyerolleveremoji:



Assuming that "something else" isn't a bag of jockstraps, that's 2 big somethings NE can't afford to give. All NE has to think is, "ok, we might get Daniels at 3 without giving away a damn thing, especially now that DC has tipped that they really might be looking at JJ or someone deeper. We should prolly stay put. Worst case they take our preference and we have to 'settle' for one of the other fantastic options we scouted AND keep our '34 and something else.'"



Or they most likely don't know yet because the process is far from over and all the stuff you're parsing for ultimate meaning is exactly what it looks like to everyone else: a huge tray of nothingburgers.

It's like there's one of those cult dudes insisting that everyone give him their life savings, dress up like a Hare Krishna, and jump off the nearest 40-story building to meet The Creator on the planet Twylo. And the whole world's telling you that he's just a crazy dude that wants your money and doesn't know shit, but you don't have time to hear all that cuz you've gotta find some stylish sheets AND get that snazzy haircut before the bank closes!



If that ends up being who they want, then yeah, the safest play is to take him at 2 because a trade with NE is wildly unlikely for obvious reasons clearly beyond your understanding, 4 and 5 could EASILY be in play, and 6 might want a QB real bad, too. Screw around and you seriously risk losing out on ALL the best options for no good reason, because no matter what WE do we can't control what EVERYONE ELSE does.

Remember our luck, Rid. We make a deal then can't get JJ, maybe end up with Penix. And he's great, but remember our luck. Penix's leg falls off at his introductory presser, and we're left with Mariota for 17 games next year, but still win enough to bork our draft position because of the other upgrades and coaching.

And maybe we can come back from that, but remember our luck. Penix gets a weird necrosis from the bum limb that turns into the zombie disease we all know is coming, half the population gets eaten by their neighbors, we get hit hardest because we were at Ground Zero, so the team really sucks and we do manage to finally get a #1 overall pick just in time for like the worst (and smelliest) draft class ever.

Maybe some of the flyover colleges will survive cuz they have all the preppers and guns, and we'll get some super elite stud QB from Bama or wherever. Prolly not though, because REMEMBER OUR LUCK.

Or maybe it'll all work out fine. You do you.



It's not total horseshit BECAUSE they hold the best cards at 2. This is your metaphor, dude. If you're holding the best cards and you do ANYTHING you risk losing a hand you've already won.

Enjoy your trip to Twylo...

I don’t even….

Let’s just say I don’t agree with a lot of this, as there’s a lot of assumptions being made (which you chastised me for doing), and a lot of bluster here as well.

We can agree to disagree

 

[Ajax1995]

This my crystal ball is better than your crystal ball is amusing to say the least. Get over it people. Who gives a f*** and even more so knows anything? If someone doesn’t agree with your convoluted theory don’t take it personally. You literally made it up out of thin air and a contextless reading of a quote because you want something to maybe be true. Why do you care if someone isn’t buying into your BS? None of us know shit so accept when someone doesn’t agree with you and move on.

 

[hockeykicker]

Can’t wait to see the new kickoffs….this should make the kick return an exciting thing again….

I'm kicking it deep every time. And so should everyone else

 

[usiel]

I'm kicking it deep every time. And so should everyone else

Can't they fair catch in the end zone and it goes to the 40 yard line?

 

[hockeykicker]

Can't they fair catch in the end zone and it goes to the 40 yard line?

No, anything end zone and beyond results in the 30 yard line so a 5 yard difference now

 

[Ridley Simon]

This my crystal ball is better than your crystal ball is amusing to say the least. Get over it people. Who gives a f*** and even more so knows anything? If someone doesn’t agree with your convoluted theory don’t take it personally. You literally made it up out of thin air and a contextless reading of a quote because you want something to maybe be true. Why do you care if someone isn’t buying into your BS? None of us know shit so accept when someone doesn’t agree with you and move on.

Easy, Tiger. This pot doesn’t need anymore stirring.

 

[Ajax1995]

Can’t wait to see the new kickoffs….this should make the kick return an exciting thing again….

I’m sorry but my initial reading is this is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard of. Accept that some type of plays are more likely than others to result in player injury and either get rid of them or decide they are part of the game. Making shit up in some stupid attempt to have your cake and eat it too is stupid, IMO of course…

 

[Ajax1995]

Easy, Tiger. This pot doesn’t need anymore stirring.

I disagree, as I don’t need another month of this garbage. Plead your case, great. If someone else thinks you’re full of shit, so what?

I hear you. But I also think your take on this is Pejorative Slured. I’m not judging you. I respect you. But I think your argument is fairly absurd. ‘Could’ it end up true? Sure, literally anything could happen. But I don’t need another novel every other day trying to politely disagree with you on this.

You have some bug up your ass about this and won’t let it go and won’t accept anyone else’s argument against it. And I’m sick of reading the same shit over and over about it. Let it go. Who gives a shit? If you end up a seer then great, relish in your victory then.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It’s a message board bud. I’ve stated over and over again that it’s my opinion, and that I didn’t expect it to happen. What the f*** is the harm in that? What else would fill these pages, if it wasn’t for dreaming up scenarios right now? Game talk? Practice talk? Player interviews? What?

What, exactly? Crickets?

You’ve said your piece, more power to you, your certainly allowed. I get it, and it’s noted.

Now I will say mine — lighten the hell up. If you don’t want to read it, don’t. I skim stuff all the time, I assume you have that capability.

Or pull a Hivemind and ignore me. It’s ok. I won’t fall apart, I promise

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Daniels has his pro day in hours... Mayes pro day is on Thursday. We can argue over that soon enough

* I really want to see JDs height and weight. I'm not really buying he's 6'4

 

[Ridley Simon]

Daniels has his pro day in hours... Mayes pro day is on Thursday. We can argue over that soon enough

* I really want to see JDs height and weight. I'm not really buying he's 6'4

He’s got a massive dome. Maybe that includes the helmet?

 

[Jags]

He’s got a massive dome. Maybe that includes the helmet?

Oddly, while I feel this accurately captures the dimensions of his head, it's very charitable to the rest of his body. If his leg:head ratio was like this in real life, I'd have no problem drafting him. Plus he'd be perfect for modeling BRob's hats...