Boston Bruins 2023 Off-Season CAP, Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk II

[ON3M4N]

Was looking over the list on CF of Group 6 UFA's and anyone who hasn't been QO'd (though I think there is still a few weeks left for teams to QO players). Two names I saw that I thought were interesting: Kieffer Bellows & Noah Juulsen.

Bellows was waived by NYI last year, claimed by the Flyers and now won't be getting a QO. Just turned 25yr old about a week ago and in his 95 NHL games he has 14G/14A/9.9S% to go along with 199 hits. Left shot winger who can play on either side. His best season came in '21-'22 where he played at an 82 game pace of 10G/24A. Seeing how much Monty helped some of the younger guys take the next step, maybe he could help Bellows carve out a nice bottom 6 role.

Juulsen has been on 3 teams since being drafted in 2015 by MTL in the 1st round. Hasn't been able to carve out a regular role with MTL, FLA or VAN in his career. In his 68 NHL games he has 2G/8A to go along with 104 blocks and 190 hits. He's got decent size at 6'2/200lb and is a RD which is something we don't have much of.

Neither of these names are going to wow people. These are low AAV gambles/lets see if we can catch lightning in a bottle type of players where you have little expectation that they become anything more than they already are.

 

[BlackFrancis]

My general opinion is that it looks pretty good overall and I'm sure they will iron out the bugs. It especially looks good with players outside the NHL if you ever want values on them.

It's interesting to see the variance with the minor league players. The model must heavily weigh past seasons for Stralman to be worth three Ahcans.

If I had to guess, it also heavily weighs shots while discounting (at least somewhat) minutes played.

Final guess is its defensive values are basic - maybe even just coupled to corsi or something. Defense also doesn't seem to be valued much at all, unless you are Charlie Coyle, who obviously can't be worth $5m+ just for his offensive production.

 

[BergyWho37]

He's a JAG I just don't get the pining for bringing back JAGs at over league minimum.

I’m not sure people are pining for him ( that would be Lucic ) and yes I’ll agree price would be a factor in bringing him back but he is decent at certain things.

Wouldn't AJ Greer fill that role for less money?

This would be what I’m referring to he brings a better toolbox to this actual JAG. Does this guy kill penalties? Is he trustworthy in the final minute of a game ? Does he intimidate others to maybe not cross the line knowing they’ll need to back it up cause I don’t recall Greer winning many fights or thinking that guy felt that..

Now don’t come at me with Hathaway doesn’t intimidate nobody I’m simply comparing these two not calling him a Lucic

Anyways just one persons opinion and it doesn’t bother me to invest anymore then what I posted above.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Many people on here will be disappointed with this news.

 

[BlackFrancis]

Many people on here will be disappointed with this news.

Did he break a finger signing the contract?

 

[WickedWitch74]

I guess this is as good a place as any to put this:

A former hockey player reached out to me last night re: a newer website he is a part of. Their claim:

We created an algorithm that computes Values of NHL players and top professional leagues players in real time

I took a look at the Bruins and a few players around the NHL as well as some around the world. You guys might find it interesting when talking free agent values.

Boston Bruins | Players | Season 2022-2023 | Benchrates

Boston Bruins Season 2022-2023 players, including value, position, age

benchrates.com

The Lindholm number really surprised me.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

The Lindholm number really surprised me.

It's off enough from every other statistical model that it makes me disregard this completely.

 

[TCB]

What’s important to note here is that Dubois, according to a source close to him, wants to do right by Winnipeg to some extent. This is why he provided a group of five or six teams as opposed to insisting Winnipeg deal only with Montreal, his original desired destination. That, as the source described it, was a decision Dubois made with his heart, but once his head got involved, he opened his mind to other possibilities that would meet his criteria for furthering his career in a long-term deal with a new team.

 

[DominicT]

It's off enough from every other statistical model that it makes me disregard this completely.

Its new. Let them in out the bugs.

CapGeek wasn't perfect when they started.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Its new. Let them in out the bugs.

CapGeek wasn't perfect when they started.

Sure. I'm not closing the door forever. But looking over their values, they have a lot of work to do - again, compared to everything else I look at - and they don't describe their methodology, so kind of a dead end for now. The public part where people do their own thing isn't of interest.

 

[xjoeyc23x]

I love Sway, but with Bussi signed and Ullmark having some power over where he's moved something has to give? Sign and trade Sway to a team who has a younger core that fits better with Sway's age? Maybe get a forward prospect in a log jam situation.

I trade Grizz for draft capital. Same with Forbort. Buy out Reilly. See if we can tempt OEL on a 1/2 year cheap prove it deal.

OEL - CMAC
Lind - Carlo

 

[NeelyDan]

OEL is precisely what this team does not need. If you're going to tweak this club's defence, you trade Grizz and you replace with a big, physical and mean defender. If such a rare magical beast even exists anymore in this teenie-bopper league.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

He’s usually pretty good at drawing penalties and defensively sound, I‘m not totally sure why he’s being used as an escape goat obviously he could’ve played better but he didn’t cost us that series either..

Good one.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I’m not sure people are pining for him ( that would be Lucic ) and yes I’ll agree price would be a factor in bringing him back but he is decent at certain things.

This would be what I’m referring to he brings a better toolbox to this actual JAG. Does this guy kill penalties? Is he trustworthy in the final minute of a game ? Does he intimate others to maybe not cross the line knowing they’ll need to back it up cause I don’t recall Greer winning many fights or thinking that guy felt that..

Now don’t come at me with Hathaway doesn’t intimate nobody I’m simply comparing these two not calling him a Lucic

Anyways just one persons opinion and it doesn’t bother me to invest anymore then what I posted above.

And, Greer is not a right winger.

Hathaway is.

 

[BradMarchandismydad]

I love Sway, but with Bussi signed and Ullmark having some power over where he's moved something has to give? Sign and trade Sway to a team who has a younger core that fits better with Sway's age? Maybe get a forward prospect in a log jam situation.

I trade Grizz for draft capital. Same with Forbort. Buy out Reilly. See if we can tempt OEL on a 1/2 year cheap prove it deal.

OEL - CMAC
Lind - Carlo

OEL really can’t be anything beyond 3rd pair or 7th d. First pair would be a disaster.

I’d like to sign him to a 1 year 1M deal for that specifically, though.

 

[CellyHard]

OEL really can’t be anything beyond 3rd pair or 7th d. First pair would be a disaster.

I’d like to sign him to a 1 year 1M deal for that specifically, though.

What I think people don't understand is that first pair with McAvoy has the easiest deployment.

Gryz averaged the least TOI out of all our defenseman. It was all 5v5. He also averaged the highest offense zone starts at 60%. This has always been the case with him, not just this year.

Bruins don't run a top four that all average 20+ minutes a night and the bottom pair at like 15 that some teams do. It is much more balanced.

When you have Forbort and Carlo doing so much of the dirty work on the PK and defensive zone starts, you have the luxury to be able to hide someone next to McAvoy. OEL seems like a good candidate for it

 

[MaxSh]

Its new. Let them in out the bugs.

CapGeek wasn't perfect when they started.

Hello, Bruins community!

I'm Max, and I am the same hockey player and developer from benchrates

First of all, I thank Dominic for posting about us here! This is one of the first discussions of our algorithm outside of the opinions of the players. I have read some very valuable insights, and thank you very much to everyone who expressed their opinion about the algorithm!

I'd like to add some context. Since 2015, I was in charge of the statistics collection and processing department at a company that dealt with advanced statistics, including for NHL, SHL, NL, AHL, etc. clubs. Therefore, of course, my hockey and statistical experience allowed me to invest my knowledge in our algorithm. It is not perfect, but it is very independent, and most importantly, it is as close to reality as possible at this point.

In particular, thanks to such discussions as today, we will be able to make both the algorithm and the future neural network better, the possibilities of which will be much wider!

Regarding some comments:
1. My position is an Offensive Def
2. We will definitely reveal the methodology, but later, don't scold us too much for it

 

[The don godfather]

I'd dump ullmark on waivers before I trade sway. Absolutely ludicrous to trade a prime goaltender . Imagine trading rask in his prime ??

 

[Ratty]

I’m not sure people are pining for him ( that would be Lucic ) and yes I’ll agree price would be a factor in bringing him back but he is decent at certain things.

This would be what I’m referring to he brings a better toolbox to this actual JAG. Does this guy kill penalties? Is he trustworthy in the final minute of a game ? Does he intimate others to maybe not cross the line knowing they’ll need to back it up cause I don’t recall Greer winning many fights or thinking that guy felt that..

Now don’t come at me with Hathaway doesn’t intimate nobody I’m simply comparing these two not calling him a Lucic

Anyways just one persons opinion and it doesn’t bother me to invest anymore then what I posted above.

He doesn't intimidate anyone either. At least that is what the writers have intimated.

 

[Ratty]

Many people on here will be disappointed with this news.

I'm rather disappointed that Sweeney didn't get a chance after July 1 to sign him. Not long term of course, but a better offer than Montreal signed him for.

 

[dugg133]

What I think people don't understand is that first pair with McAvoy has the easiest deployment.

Gryz averaged the least TOI out of all our defenseman. It was all 5v5. He also averaged the highest offense zone starts at 60%. This has always been the case with him, not just this year.

Bruins don't run a top four that all average 20+ minutes a night and the bottom pair at like 15 that some teams do. It is much more balanced.

When you have Forbort and Carlo doing so much of the dirty work on the PK and defensive zone starts, you have the luxury to be able to hide someone next to McAvoy. OEL seems like a good candidate for it

Funny thing about those o zone starts that Gryz-McAvoy take is that they're almost always against the other teams best players. Players that are very good at turning defense into offense. Those are not easy minutes.

 

[UncleRico]

Hello, Bruins community!

I'm Max, and I am the same hockey player and developer from benchrates

First of all, I thank Dominic for posting about us here! This is one of the first discussions of our algorithm outside of the opinions of the players. I have read some very valuable insights, and thank you very much to everyone who expressed their opinion about the algorithm!

I'd like to add some context. Since 2015, I was in charge of the statistics collection and processing department at a company that dealt with advanced statistics, including for NHL, SHL, NL, AHL, etc. clubs. Therefore, of course, my hockey and statistical experience allowed me to invest my knowledge in our algorithm. It is not perfect, but it is very independent, and most importantly, it is as close to reality as possible at this point.

In particular, thanks to such discussions as today, we will be able to make both the algorithm and the future neural network better, the possibilities of which will be much wider!

Regarding some comments:
1. My position is an Offensive Def
2. We will definitely reveal the methodology, but later, don't scold us too much for it

We wish you the best of luck!

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Funny thing about those o zone starts that Gryz-McAvoy take is that they're almost always against the other teams best players. Players that are very good at turning defense into offense. Those are not easy minutes.

Are they?

I don't know about that.

I'd dump ullmark on waivers before I trade sway. Absolutely ludicrous to trade a prime goaltender . Imagine trading rask in his prime ??

So, who's the prime goaltender here?

Ludicrous to trade one, but would dump Ullmark (Vezina winner) on waivers?

 

[Root]

What I think people don't understand is that first pair with McAvoy has the easiest deployment.

Gryz averaged the least TOI out of all our defenseman. It was all 5v5. He also averaged the highest offense zone starts at 60%. This has always been the case with him, not just this year.

Bruins don't run a top four that all average 20+ minutes a night and the bottom pair at like 15 that some teams do. It is much more balanced.

When you have Forbort and Carlo doing so much of the dirty work on the PK and defensive zone starts, you have the luxury to be able to hide someone next to McAvoy. OEL seems like a good candidate for it

I understand your points but I think one of the Bruins problems is that they think they can "hide" a player next to McAvoy. It doesn't work come playoff time. I thought they finally realized this when they traded for Orlov but then they had Orlov playing all over the place instead of stapling him with McAvoy until they meshed. That drove me nuts.

I'm really hoping they find a solid defensive partner for McAvoy that they trust to play in all situations this offseason. Easier said than done given their cap situation, but they should be done pairing him with defensemen they're afraid to play come playoff time.

 

[dugg133]

Are they?

I don't know about that.

Yes, they are. Quality of Competition stats exist, McAvoy gets the hardest deployment on the team. You can't hide guys next to him, putting Gryz next to him has never been about hiding Gryz.