2023 NHL Entry Draft Discussion - Draft Lottery Edition

[604]

To be fair, the NHL isn’t even the 4th or 5th most popular sport in the US or for most of the world.

It’s something that, as Canadians, we overvalue relative to the rest of the world.

I read that American Ninja Warrior gets more viewers than an NHL playoff game.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

He is still going 10-20. Skating is not great, horrible defensively dude flys the zone and cherry picks a ton and small. Way too much risk to be a top 10 pick someone is making a mistake if he goes top 10.

I don't know much about Perrault, but based on your description, he sound a lot like Cristall. Would you say they are similar players?

I only ask because I have Cristall on my "do not draft" list in the top 20 picks. Small, slow, weak and bad defense wingers rarely works out, no matter how many point they put up in junior.

 

[kmwtrucks]

This just isn't true. There were 5 teams who had enough cap space last September to take on this contract without moving any salary and considering how weak the UFA class is this season I expect there will be more this September. Most of them will be far less concerned with cap hit that with real salary and several make sense as destinations for Myers.

5 out of 32 means roughly 85% of the teams would not have the cap space. LOL you are actually helping my argument. the thing you miss is of those 5 who would want tyler meyers. the HAWKS and ARZ a few others would not want him. the teams that would want a 1 mil salary 6 MIL aav are the playoff teams who are the ones typically with the least cap space. I agree they look at both actually salary and AAV.

 

[604]

5 out of 32 means roughly 85% of the teams would not have the cap space. LOL you are actually helping my argument. the thing you miss is of those 5 who would want tyler meyers. the HAWKS and ARZ a few others would not want him. the teams that would want a 1 mil salary 6 MIL aav are the playoff teams who are the ones typically with the least cap space. I agree they look at both actually salary and AAV.

I think a team that wants to get to the cap floor as cheaply as possible wants a guy like Tyler Myers.

Not for on-ice competitive reasons but for money reasons.

Also, teams that don’t spend to the cap but are ruled by owners budgets would also want him because he’s a bargain at $1m salary.

Both groups are contained in the 15% of non-cap teams. It’s doesn’t take 32 teams to make a trade.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

I don't know much about Perrault, but based on your description, he sound a lot like Cristall. Would you say they are similar players?

I only ask because I have Cristall on my "do not draft" list in the top 20 picks. Small, slow, weak and bad defense wingers rarely works out, no matter how many point they put up in junior.

Well, they both have skating issues but very different issues. Cristall top speed in a straight line is bad but he has really good agility, acceleration, and lateral quickness. While Perreault's top speed in straight-line is good but his edge and agility are bad, the same problems that Matthew Woods (his top speed ain't great though) has. They both don't play a ton of defense, Perreault is better, and he is bigger and stronger. Cristall is more of a driver of play, and Perreault is more of a passenger on his line. My problem with both players is that there is no middle ground they have high potential but low floors. If they are not playing in the top six they are not in the NHL, and unless they hit their top-end potential they are not worth top 10 picks. It sounds like high risk high reward but someone like Moore if he hits his potential is probably worth more (top-six center vs border lin top-line winger) than both players and his room for error is so much better because he has a high floor and he can play in the bottom of your lineup if he does not hit his full potential. I do think Cristall is still a good prospect he was just not top 10 one.

 

[VanJack]

As the old saying goes, 'he who laughs last, laughs the best.

As everyone knows, the Hawks and Ducks were laughably bad this season. But in the next three drafts, the Hawks having a stunning 19 picks in the first three rounds. The Ducks have a total of 15.

For comparisons sake, the Canucks have just eight......so unless they can acquire some more, which seems unlikely, the Canucks will have only eight measly picks in rounds 1-3 from 2023-2025.

We'll see by 2025 I guess which teams are still in the lottery and which are firmly in the top eight of the Western Conference.

 

[Vector]

Some NHL draft simulators are finally updated.

I like Draft Prospects Hockey the best.

FC Hockey is quite good but has limited rankings so it's not really possible to do an entire draft.

Spoiler: My Draft

11) David Reinbacher - RD
75) Kalan Lind - C
91) Andrew Gibson - RD
105) Jaden Lipinsk - C
107) Kaden Hamell - RD
120) Mazden Leslie - RD
171) Oskar Fisker Molgaard - C

 

[Raistlin]

Some NHL draft simulators are finally updated.

I like Draft Prospects Hockey the best.

FC Hockey is quite good but has limited rankings so it's not really possible to do an entire draft.

Spoiler: My Draft

there are so many good defensemen in the 2024 draft, after the 2 big RD, Reinbacher and Gibson, I just went all Cs. good simulator.

 

[DFAC]

Some NHL draft simulators are finally updated.

I like Draft Prospects Hockey the best.

FC Hockey is quite good but has limited rankings so it's not really possible to do an entire draft.

Spoiler: My Draft

11) David Reinbacher - RD
75) Kalan Lind - C
91) Andrew Gibson - RD
105) Jaden Lipinsk - C
107) Kaden Hamell - RD
120) Mazden Leslie - RD
171) Oskar Fisker Molgaard - C

I ran the simulator for the first three rounds and got

11) Will smith - C
75) Gracyn Sawchyn- C
93) Anton Wahlberg- C

 

[Diogenes92]

3% chance for Allvin's retool plan to work on May 8th.

 

[arttk]

I ran the simulator for the first three rounds and got

11) Will smith - C
75) Gracyn Sawchyn- C
93) Anton Wahlberg- C

Feels like the odds of Smith dropping to 11 is lower than our odds of drafting in the top2

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

The U18 tournament sure has everything up in arms this year. Everyone is showing up and performing well.

 

[Vector]

Spoiler: My Draft

there are so many good defensemen in the 2024 draft, after the 2 big RD, Reinbacher and Gibson, I just went all Cs. good simulator.

I ran the simulator for the first three rounds and got

11) Will smith - C
75) Gracyn Sawchyn- C
93) Anton Wahlberg- C

Feels like the odds of Smith dropping to 11 is lower than our odds of drafting in the top2

The best thing about these simulators is they give you an idea about guys available in the later rounds. It’s how I knew about D-Petey and Jackson Dorrington. Makes Day 02 far more interesting.

 

[DFAC]

Feels like the odds of Smith dropping to 11 is lower than our odds of drafting in the top2

While I agree - I think after the top 4/5 theres ~10 players that could go anywhere from 5-15. I could see some teams really liking guys like Honzek, Dvorsky, Danielson and taking them in the top 10. Even a guy like Perrault and Leonard have a chance to sneak into the top 10. Then you have the dmen in Reinbacher and ASP who could also go top 10

5-15 is an absolute mess to predict lol. Either way the Canucks should get a blue chip prospect there.

 

[arttk]

While I agree - I think after the top 4/5 theres ~10 players that could go anywhere from 5-15. I could see some teams really liking guys like Honzek, Dvorsky, Danielson and taking them in the top 10. Even a guy like Perrault and Leonard have a chance to sneak into the top 10

5-15 is an absolute mess to predict lol. Either way the Canucks should get a blue chip prospect there.

Yeah it seems like every list is quite different. would be psyched if Smith drops to us

 

[Knight53]

While I agree - I think after the top 4/5 theres ~10 players that could go anywhere from 5-15. I could see some teams really liking guys like Honzek, Dvorsky, Danielson and taking them in the top 10. Even a guy like Perrault and Leonard have a chance to sneak into the top 10. Then you have the dmen in Reinbacher and ASP who could also go top 10

5-15 is an absolute mess to predict lol. Either way the Canucks should get a blue chip prospect there.

Wouldn’t shock me if Benson is there at 11 at this point. Big centers always shoot up.

Bedard
Fantilli
Carlsson
Michkov
Smith
Dvorsky
Reinbacher
Moore
Danielson
Honzek/Pellikka
Benson

Leonard/Wood/Sale are all having great tournaments as well. Should be a crazy draft after the top 3.

 

[DFAC]

Should be a few solid guys available in the 3rd round… who are you guys targeting with our 2 picks there?

 

[arttk]

Wouldn’t shock me if Benson is there at 11 at this point. Big centers always shoot up.

Bedard
Fantilli
Carlsson
Michkov
Smith
Dvorsky
Reinbacher
Moore
Danielson
Honzek/Pellikka
Benson

Leonard/Wood/Sale are all having great tournaments as well. Should be a crazy draft after the top 3.

Don’t think I’ve seen a list with Dvorsky so highly

 

[DonnyNucker]

As the old saying goes, 'he who laughs last, laughs the best.

As everyone knows, the Hawks and Ducks were laughably bad this season. But in the next three drafts, the Hawks having a stunning 19 picks in the first three rounds. The Ducks have a total of 15.

For comparisons sake, the Canucks have just eight......so unless they can acquire some more, which seems unlikely, the Canucks will have only eight measly picks in rounds 1-3 from 2023-2025.

We'll see by 2025 I guess which teams are still in the lottery and which are firmly in the top eight of the Western Conference.

Neat

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

Some NHL draft simulators are finally updated.

I like Draft Prospects Hockey the best.

FC Hockey is quite good but has limited rankings so it's not really possible to do an entire draft.

Spoiler: My Draft

11) David Reinbacher - RD
75) Kalan Lind - C
91) Andrew Gibson - RD
105) Jaden Lipinsk - C
107) Kaden Hamell - RD
120) Mazden Leslie - RD
171) Oskar Fisker Molgaard - C

they have Reinbacher at 23..(i have him 14 n ppl call me nuts)

great site tho

 

[Vector]

they have Reinbacher at 23..(i have him 14 n ppl call me nuts)

great site tho

Yeah, their rankings come from Draft Prospects Hockey and I guess this is their promotional simulator. There’s some other funky rankings in there too. They also add the option to use Bob McKenzie’s list when it’s available.

I’ve been forcing myself not to take Reinbacher every time.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

3% chance for Allvin's retool plan to work on May 8th.

That is actually accurate

 

[oceanchild]

I’m wondering if you all want to start a go fund me or a pool of money. I think we need to hire someone that has mastered Voodoo to remove the NHL Lottery Curse and allow us to land in the top two. Maybe someone on here has a contact in that industry?

 

[oceanchild]

would Canucks consider giving hawks # 11 and Tyler Myers for #20. Tyler is going to take a sweetner to get him off the books, was pretty bad last year and the odds of getting better is not good, terrible Corsi and EXG. canucks have to shed something.

I would do that for OEL, but Meyers will have value at the trade deadline.

 

[shottasasa]

I was looking into Danielson after a few people had mentioned him and I’m impressed with his skating and hands. He has a very smooth stride and change of direction that looks easy. Maybe he doesn’t have the absolute offensive ceiling as some of the small wingers ranked around 11 but if his transition and two way game are as good as some of the scouting reports suggest I’d like that pick at 11.

His ranking seems to be all over the place, possibly as some scouts value offensive ceiling over all else. A smooth skating two-way RH C with good size is an incredibly valuable asset.

The knock on him seems to be that he doesn’t have any really elite tools, but that skating and ability to handle the puck smoothly at speed and 33g, 78p in 68 games while facing top competition on a relatively weak team is a strong base.

I think it was mentioned somewhere on these boards that there is a bit of a difference between Best Player Available and Best Asset Available due to positional value and I believe that’s the case.