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Nihiliste

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Feb 8, 2010
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How much did the Avs pro scouts take a hit because of this?

Interesting to think about. Thanks for bringing this up, I had forgotten about this change and didn’t think much of it at the time
 
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Bender

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How much did the Avs pro scouts take a hit because of this?
Garth Joy had been with the Avs for like 20 years if not more than that. If we're giving him credit for the past 2-3 years, what about the 17 years prior ?

So did they just start listening to him for the past 3 years and then he was poached away? That's a pretty hard question to answer but if I had to guess, I'd probably say no.

The truth is, nobody really knows who's banging the table for which players except for 1 guy and he knows all of the inter-workings of the Avs front office and all other 31 front offices - which scouts like which players, which players were offered for who and for what for each team, each minor league team, all of their prospects and also what all of these people are having for lunch on a daily basis. :)

In reality, the most likely scenario is that the Avs started leaning on their analytics department more in collaboration with their pro scouts and in conjunction with the way they want to play and the results have been excellent.
 

henchman21

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Garth Joy had been with the Avs for like 20 years if not more than that. If we're giving him credit for the past 2-3 years, what about the 17 years prior ?

So did they just start listening to him for the past 3 years and then he was poached away? That's a pretty hard question to answer but if I had to guess, I'd probably say no.

The truth is, nobody really knows who's banging the table for which players except for 1 guy and he knows all of the inter-workings of the Avs front office and all other 31 front offices - which scouts like which players, which players were offered for who and for what for each team, each minor league team, all of their prospects and also what all of these people are having for lunch on a daily basis. :)

In reality, the most likely scenario is that the Avs started leaning on their analytics department more in collaboration with their pro scouts and in conjunction with the way they want to play and the results have been excellent.

I think you can make an argument that the Avs have always had good pro scouting. Most guys they have gotten over the years had good seasons with the Avs and even career years. Just take PAP who really kinda sucked, but he actually did pretty well here. Flash and Mueller had injuries kill their contributions here, but had signs of really working. Andre Benoit had a great season here. Salei, Lappy, Hejda, Quincey, Winnik, EJ, Varly, McGinn, etc. The Avs have traditionally gotten a lot out of their pro scouting group.

Frankly the drafting outside of a few select years has let the Avs down more than anything else.
 
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Bender

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I think you can make an argument that the Avs have always had good pro scouting. Most guys they have gotten over the years had good seasons with the Avs and even career years. Just take PAP who really kinda sucked, but he actually did pretty well here. Flash and Mueller had injuries kill their contributions here, but had signs of really working. Andre Benoit had a great season here. Salei, Lappy, Hejda, Quincey, Winnik, EJ, Varly, McGinn, etc. The Avs have traditionally gotten a lot out of their pro scouting group.

Frankly the drafting outside of a few select years has let the Avs down more than anything else.
I'd add to that that sometimes calls on players like Brad Stuart and Joe Colbourne - I wouldn't be surprised in the least if pro scouting weren't even consulted but I can't confirm that - just my feeling that someone decided they wanted those guys.

Agree with you on drafting though. Since the beginning of the Pracey era, the Avs have missed on so many later round picks that it's kind of embarrassing. Wasn't always that way though. We used to pull out guys like David Jones and Marek Svatos with later round picks. From 1995 (and even before that) to 2003 we used to be able to hit every once in a while on guys. It's been garbage-dump awful pretty much since then.
 
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henchman21

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I'd add to that that sometimes calls on players like Brad Stuart and Joe Colbourne - I wouldn't be surprised in the least if pro scouting weren't even consulted but I can't confirm that - just my feeling that someone decided they wanted those guys.

Agree with you on drafting though. Since the beginning of the Pracey era, the Avs have missed on so many later round picks that it's kind of embarrassing. Wasn't always that way though. We used to pull out guys like David Jones and Marek Svatos with later round picks. From 1995 (and even before that) to 2003 we used to be able to hit every once in a while on guys. It's been garbage-dump awful pretty much since then.
I’m sure they had some input at very least, but in general, while there are misses, the pro scouting has been good. Always been a stronger part of the org.

Yeah the absolute complete and utter lack of late round help is a huge black eye. Basically since Barrie that the Avs have had a 3rd or later round pick have a real impact for the Avs.
 

Avs_19

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From what I recall there was a general consensus here that the Avs turned things around in large part due to MacFarland and the the analytics department. That's when they really started hitting on the acquisitions and maybe underappreciated players like Toews, Nichushkin, Burakovsky, etc. It all goes hand in hand and the pro scouts play a role too but those were the big changes over the last little while. Now people are mad at MacFarland and we're talking about Garth Joy.
 

henchman21

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From what I recall there was a general consensus here that the Avs turned things around in large part due to MacFarland and the the analytics department. That's when they really started hitting on the acquisitions and maybe underappreciated players like Toews, Nichushkin, Burakovsky, etc. It all goes hand in hand and the pro scouts play a role too but those were the big changes over the last little while. Now people are mad at MacFarland and we're talking about Garth Joy.
To me, it would be unfair on either side to place all the blame or all the credit.

I’d also say the Avs’ dependence on analytics is greatly overstated. You don’t have to look a lot further than players they keep acquiring. Some have good stats… some have poor stats. It isn’t black and white.
 

MacKaRant

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I’m sure they had some input at very least, but in general, while there are misses, the pro scouting has been good. Always been a stronger part of the org.

Yeah the absolute complete and utter lack of late round help is a huge black eye. Basically since Barrie that the Avs have had a 3rd or later round pick have a real impact for the Avs.
Don't worry, we have Taylor Makar coming through the ranks :)
 

Avs_19

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To me, it would be unfair on either side to place all the blame or all the credit.

I’d also say the Avs’ dependence on analytics is greatly overstated. You don’t have to look a lot further than players they keep acquiring. Some have good stats… some have poor stats. It isn’t black and white.

Of course it's not black and white. JJ, Manson, Cogs, etc are all examples of that. Those are their tough, gritty, veteran, etc playoff guys that every team brings in. I think in general they do rely on their analytics department more than most but it's also hard to say.

Having said that, Garth Joy? C'mon man.
 

henchman21

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Of course it's not black and white. JJ, Manson, Cogs, etc are all examples of that. Those are their tough, gritty, veteran, etc playoff guys that every team brings in. I think in general they do rely on their analytics department more than most but it's also hard to say.

Having said that, Garth Joy? C'mon man.
I’m not going crazy on it, but we’ve praised the pro scouts heavily and he was clearly one of the most influential and important in the organization.
 
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John Mandalorian

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Garth Joy had been with the Avs for like 20 years if not more than that. If we're giving him credit for the past 2-3 years, what about the 17 years prior ?

So did they just start listening to him for the past 3 years and then he was poached away? That's a pretty hard question to answer but if I had to guess, I'd probably say no.

The truth is, nobody really knows who's banging the table for which players except for 1 guy and he knows all of the inter-workings of the Avs front office and all other 31 front offices - which scouts like which players, which players were offered for who and for what for each team, each minor league team, all of their prospects and also what all of these people are having for lunch on a daily basis. :)

In reality, the most likely scenario is that the Avs started leaning on their analytics department more in collaboration with their pro scouts and in conjunction with the way they want to play and the results have been excellent.

I'd say it's a pretty safe guess that the analytics department has had a louder voice when pounding the table. I remember reading that the analytics dept pounded the table for Nichushkin when others within the organization weren't as supportive. Decision makers are like anyone else and like listening to people who make the successful and look smart.

Also your interpretation was a big leap. I wasn't suggesting anything other than default assumptions can be erroneous and outdated with even small changes. And no one is claiming to know about the inner workings of the organization by acknowledging this.
 
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