News: 2023 Arbitration Thread

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think Samsonov has a stronger case than Vanacek or Georgiev. So I’d estimate more like $3.7-$3.8m if it goes through full arbitration.

And then that triggers the Leafs to buy out Murray? Or, I haven't been following along, is it still thought they could LTIR him instead?

 

[Evgeny Oliker]

So arbitration numbers for player and team come out 2 days before arbitration hearing right?

So for Dunn that should be July 22?

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Trenin's arbitration result last summer was released on August 5th and his case was on August 2nd.

And then that triggers the Leafs to buy out Murray? Or, I haven't been following along, is it still thought they could LTIR him instead?

Yes, there's a 48 hour 2nd buyout window that opens once the case is heard or there is a settlement.

If he's healthy, buying him out seems quite possible. You can't use a buyout an injured player. So if he's too banged up for a buyout, LTIR would be the possible scenario. But they can't risk having him come to camp and suddenly be healthy.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

 

[AcerComputer]

So arbitration numbers for player and team come out 2 days before arbitration hearing right?

So for Dunn that should be July 22?

Yes, that's how it's dunn

 

[Solarion]

Marty Biron suggested that Samsonov will likely get $4m+ in arbitration. His performance last season likely warrants that and you have to think the Korpisalo signing at 5x$4m doesn't help the Leafs case a bunch. I'm not personally sold on either Korpisalo or Samsonov as starters...and of the two I rather have Samsonov. Cap space is going to be real tough for the Leafs if they have to shell out $2.2m more for Sammy this year compared to last. Oh man does that Murray deal look like a boat anchor now.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Marty Biron suggested that Samsonov will likely get $4m+ in arbitration. His performance last season likely warrants that and you have to think the Korpisalo signing at 5x$4m doesn't help the Leafs case a bunch. I'm not personally sold on either Korpisalo or Samsonov as starters...and of the two I rather have Samsonov. Cap space is going to be real tough for the Leafs if they have to shell out $2.2m more for Sammy this year compared to last. Oh man does that Murray deal look like a boat anchor now.

Sammy is not worth that if he is going to be total sieve in the playoffs. Granted, he was good in that one game when they clinched the series. But other than that he was very stinky. Leafs are fooling themselves if they think he is the guy.

 

[Solarion]

Sammy is not worth that if he is going to be total sieve in the playoffs. Granted, he was good in that one game when they clinched the series. But other than that he was very stinky. Leafs are fooling themselves if they think he is the guy.

Agree. ...and yet the Leafs seem to be rather low on options. Woll has very limited NHL experience, but seems to be the defacto backup because he's no longer waiver exempt. If the hearing results in Sammy being gifted $4m+, one can make the case that Sammy should've been traded for a bag of pucks or waived(where he's likely grabbed) and the Leafs should've begun the season with Woll backed up by the $4.6875m man of glass. Kind of a mess in net in Toronto...but what's new I guess. lol

 

[HockeyVirus]

 

[tkb81]

Agree. ...and yet the Leafs seem to be rather low on options. Woll has very limited NHL experience, but seems to be the defacto backup because he's no longer waiver exempt. If the hearing results in Sammy being gifted $4m+, one can make the case that Sammy should've been traded for a bag of pucks or waived(where he's likely grabbed) and the Leafs should've begun the season with Woll backed up by the $4.6875m man of glass. Kind of a mess in net in Toronto...but what's new I guess. lol

yah and their is no way you can sneak woll down either as he would be picked up on waivers ... either way i love the cap makes the summer much more interesting haha

 

[HockeyVirus]

Sammy is not worth that if he is going to be total sieve in the playoffs. Granted, he was good in that one game when they clinched the series. But other than that he was very stinky. Leafs are fooling themselves if they think he is the guy.

Come on bro he was playing very injured. He was also more than good in just one game, all the games that went to OT he was solid in net and didn't let anything go in which every other goalie we had couldn't do.

Not his fault he faced one of the top offenses in the league either. Look at Vasi's numbers as a comparison. Considering the circumstances, he was more than good enough.

 

[Chileiceman]

From Chicago's standpoint, why are they playing harball with Kurashev? You have all the cap space, why alienate your player like that?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

From Chicago's standpoint, why are they playing harball with Kurashev? You have all the cap space, why alienate your player like that?

Unless you don't really care about the player? I don't watch Chicago. Maybe Kurashev is just that "mid" that they don't really care?

 

[Petes2424]

Marty Biron suggested that Samsonov will likely get $4m+ in arbitration. His performance last season likely warrants that and you have to think the Korpisalo signing at 5x$4m doesn't help the Leafs case a bunch. I'm not personally sold on either Korpisalo or Samsonov as starters...and of the two I rather have Samsonov. Cap space is going to be real tough for the Leafs if they have to shell out $2.2m more for Sammy this year compared to last. Oh man does that Murray deal look like a boat anchor now.

The one thing nobody is talking about, is Samsonov isn’t your “go with the flow” type personality.

If he doesn’t like the decision, he’s going to believe, and accuse (likely already has) the Leafs of using his arbitration to resolve their cap issue with Murray…. and it sure looks like they have.

It means they haven’t been negotiating in good faith, and Samsonov is likely, and let’s be honest…. shouldn’t be ok with that.

Doesn’t matter what that number ends up. If his goal was to negotiate a 4-5 year deal, and believes they didn’t because of this “arbitration buy out window” (for Murray) he could be a very unhappy camper.

Think the good thing for us as Leaf fans is, if this thing goes sideways, it could lead to some sort of trade for Hellebuyck. Hell, maybe it’s been the plan since around the draft. The Leafs sure haven’t shown much urgency to sort out the Murray issue. Maybe it’s their way to get rid of both Samsonov and Murray.

It’s safe to say this site would crash if that happens.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Unless you don't really care about the player? I don't watch Chicago. Maybe Kurashev is just that "mid" that they don't really care?

Yeah, that might be what's happening with the Kurashev arbitration. He's been in the NHL for most of 3 seasons and has made modest improvement each year - so they may not view him as a long term piece of the rebuild. He's got some nice attributes and had some good chemistry with Reichel at the end of the season but maybe that's not enough for them to give him more time.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Didn't Friedman say the Leafs and Samsonov weren't far apart like a week ago? That's a farcry from actually going to arbitration.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The one thing nobody is talking about, is Samsonov isn’t your “go with the flow” type personality.

If he doesn’t like the decision, he’s going to believe, and accuse (likely already has) the Leafs of using his arbitration to resolve their cap issue with Murray…. and it sure looks like they have.

It means they haven’t been negotiating in good faith, and Samsonov is likely, and let’s be honest…. shouldn’t be ok with that.

Doesn’t matter what that number ends up. If his goal was to negotiate a 4-5 year deal, and believes they didn’t because of this “arbitration buy out window” (for Murray) he could be a very unhappy camper.

Think the good thing for us as Leaf fans is, if this thing goes sideways, it could lead to some sort of trade for Hellebuyck. Hell, maybe it’s been the plan since around the draft. The Leafs sure haven’t shown much urgency to sort out the Murray issue. Maybe it’s their way to get rid of both Samsonov and Murray.

It’s safe to say this site would crash if that happens.

Samsonov's numbers are obviously $4-5M AAV to me... I don't watch him enough to know if that's "misleading". But if you're the player, of course you go to Arbitration on that strength of that statistical perspective.

To me, it all really comes down to Murray's status. I'm frankly a little surprised the Toronto media machine hasn't kicked in on that. You have to know if he's healthy or not. LTIRable or Buyout-able. Why isn't the Toronto media machine all over this?

 

[Shane Diesel]

The one thing nobody is talking about, is Samsonov isn’t your “go with the flow” type personality.

If he doesn’t like the decision, he’s going to believe, and accuse (likely already has) the Leafs of using his arbitration to resolve their cap issue with Murray…. and it sure looks like they have.

It means they haven’t been negotiating in good faith, and Samsonov is likely, and let’s be honest…. shouldn’t be ok with that.

Doesn’t matter what that number ends up. If his goal was to negotiate a 4-5 year deal, and believes they didn’t because of this “arbitration buy out window” (for Murray) he could be a very unhappy camper.

Think the good thing for us as Leaf fans is, if this thing goes sideways, it could lead to some sort of trade for Hellebuyck. Hell, maybe it’s been the plan since around the draft. The Leafs sure haven’t shown much urgency to sort out the Murray issue. Maybe it’s their way to get rid of both Samsonov and Murray.

It’s safe to say this site would crash if that happens.

The cost of both aquiring Hellebuyck and shedding Murray won't be cheap in either cap space or draft capital. How will Toronto afford these things?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The cost of both aquiring Hellebuyck and shedding Murray won't be cheap in either cap space or draft capital. How will Toronto afford these things?

Murray's buyout is kinda "dirt cheap"... if he's eligible health-wise for a buyout. I'm just surprised that no clarity on his health status has been provided.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Murray's buyout is kinda "dirt cheap"... if he's eligible health-wise for a buyout. I'm just surprised that no clarity on his health status has been provided.

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While Hellebuyck carries a cap hit of over six million and I doubt Winnipeg is giving him away for free especially if retention is involved.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

While Hellebuyck carries a cap hit of over six million and I doubt Winnipeg is giving him away for free especially if retention is involved.

Hellebuyck is a different issue. The Leafs just first have to be able to fit Samsonov's arbitration award.

Hellebyuck is more like a pro-rated TDL option if things are still going "iffy" in the TO net in March 2024.

 

[PainForShane]

Murray's buyout is kinda "dirt cheap"... if he's eligible health-wise for a buyout. I'm just surprised that no clarity on his health status has been provided.

View attachment 730366

Murray was cleared to play during the playoffs. I think you have to assume he's healthy ie not LTIRable

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Murray was cleared to play during the playoffs. I think you have to assume he's healthy ie not LTIRable

View attachment 730372

That is what I have always assumed.

In which case, as soon as Samsonov's award becomes available, the Leafs just buy out Murray? Amirite?

 

[PainForShane]

That is what I have always assumed.

In which case, as soon as Samsonov's award becomes available, the Leafs just buy out Murray? Amirite?

So... I'm not a Leafs fan but that's the only thing that makes sense. Buying out Murray saves them 4m in cap space this year and even after that they'll still have to make a couple of moves to get under the cap by opening day.

Definitely doable. BUT, if Sammy's number comes in high I'm honestly curious to see whether they let him walk, esp considering Vegas last year with some random castoff goalie. Much easier to be a neutral when you see a team in its contention window being managed like this

 

[mydnyte]

The cost of both aquiring Hellebuyck and shedding Murray won't be cheap in either cap space or draft capital. How will Toronto afford these things?

We havent see teams beating down the door to get Hellebuyck... his current salary is already high, and his desired salary is much higher than most teams can afford.

The Murray situation is as confusing now as it was when Dubas was crazy (most polite word i could use) enough to trade for him after already signing Samsonov.

Leafs may only have Woll as a goalie by Tuesday.