Boston Bruins 2023-24 Roster and Salary Cap Discussion V

[GordonHowe]

I agree. I don’t even think it makes “hockey sense” to trade either of our goalies. Particularly not the young stud kid.

I think we could make a deal but I don’t think we subtract except to offset salaries.

Sweeney knows what he has in Jeremy Swayman.

The Bruins have always been exceptionally lucky in their goaltending.

When the time comes, and it will, Linus will be dealt.

 

[quietbruinfan]

And Ulmark has a mntc and no reason to choose Calgary. Swayman has value but we’d have to include other assets to offset the cap hit of the incoming player. It’s all a house of cards. Rolling with the assets that are performing well so far clearly makes the most sense.

Disagree Ullmark and one of JDB or Grz should go in package deal. You will have at least 8.5 mill that way, more with it being pro rated for the deadline

 

[quietbruinfan]

The Boston Bruins are not trading Jeremy Swayman.

Ullmark, eventually, is another matter.

I think it should be soon. I can't remember the last time this many good or middling teams needed help in goal and I have a long memory.... Now there are a few goalies, like Hart, available but not many other starters. Ullmark's five million dollar salary does not hurt either.

 

[GordonHowe]

I think it should be soon. I can't remember the last time this many good or middling teams needed help in goal and I have a long memory.... Now there are a few goalies, like Hart, available but not many other starters. Ullmark's five million dollar salary does not hurt either.

My point here is that when they trade Linus, it has to be for max value.

I don't believe they are entertaining the option at present.

Given how fragile the team is -- goaltending and D strongest points -- I don't see it. To trade Ullmark at the deadline, never mind now, would not be wise. The goaltending tandem is the backbone of the club, 2023-2024, and it makes little sense to upset matters in season. Off season, yes.

 

[GordonHowe]

I agree. I don’t even think it makes “hockey sense” to trade either of our goalies. Particularly not the young stud kid.

I think we could make a deal but I don’t think we subtract except to offset salaries.

Easy for me to say, but salaries aren't the issue.

The Bruins have two excellent goaltenders. That doesn't happen often. Keep both, given the "transitional" nature of this season.

Revisit Ullmark in the summer.

 

[quietbruinfan]

My point here is that when they trade Linus, it has to be for max value.

I don't believe they are entertaining the option at present.

Given how fragile the team is -- goaltending and D strongest points -- I don't see it. To trade Ullmark at the deadline, never mind now, would not be wise. The goaltending tandem is the backbone of the club, 2023-2024, and it makes little sense to upset matters in season. Off season, yes.

I think Bussi is ready and given demand, Ullmark's value will NEVER be higher. Throw in the need to move Grz and JDB, and you really should make a deal at the deadline. It is very logical and I am surprised you do not see it.

My point here is that when they trade Linus, it has to be for max value.

I don't believe they are entertaining the option at present.

Given how fragile the team is -- goaltending and D strongest points -- I don't see it. To trade Ullmark at the deadline, never mind now, would not be wise. The goaltending tandem is the backbone of the club, 2023-2024, and it makes little sense to upset matters in season. Off season, yes.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Anytime “toughness” is mentioned here we get the same crowd reaction “we don’t need face punchers” .. I personally just don’t want to watch this team lose a series again to Matt Tkachuk, Bennet & Gudas. Hammer or nail.. I’m not advocating for Reaves. Some folks want to recreate the 2011 Canucks I guess. They “almost” won once.

 

[GordonHowe]

I think Bussi is ready and given demand, Ullmark's value will NEVER be higher. Throw in the need to move Grz and JDB, and you really should make a deal at the deadline. It is very logical and I am surprised you do not see it.

Understood but trading Ullmark -- who is not merely a backup -- could prove exceptionally disruptive in season. That is, this season.

The team as constructed is fragile. When you think of their goaltending, you think of the tandem. You are placing immense pressure on a 25 year old Swayman to be The Guy.

Which is why the time to move Linus was last summer. Alas and alack, the market did not cooperate.

I'm all for a trade. There are complications.

 

[DKH]

Sad for everyone…..obviously especially his family.

yup

 

[Oates2Neely]

I love Massachusetts too but 0% income tax X $7,000,000 = a glorious $0,000,000.

Let’s not forget Massachusetts recently passed the “millionaires tax”. If a player is considering salary options with Panthers vs Bruins, Sweeney will have to shell out more per year.

 

[GordonHowe]

John Klingberg's season is over. What’s next for the Maple Leafs?

John Klingberg's season, and likely his career with the Maple Leafs, is over, leaving the team scrambling for help on D.

theathletic.com

Never wanted him. Glad the B's steered clear.

And how lucky has Boston been over the years? Healthy lineups for decades.

Think about it. When was the last time a Bruins player was out for the season or on LIR?

A great credit to their training and conditioning staff, and to their players.

We're lucky!

 

[GordonHowe]

We're in first place, Sweeney isn't moving out 2 full time roster player.

Wanna bet?

 

[Dizzay]

yup

Out of 10, what are the chances you see him in a Bruins uniform "on the ice" in 2024? Let's say all charges are dropped and he completes his time in the player assistance program?

 

[DKH]

Out of 10, what are the chances you see him in a Bruins uniform "on the ice" in 2024? Let's say all charges are dropped and he completes his time in the player assistance program?

0.0

Sadly but deservedly

they know what went down and it’s over

 

[BradMarchandismydad]

What defensive stats, cus his defensive metrics are pretty horrible?

This guy stinks. Shouldn’t even be a thought.

 

[UncleRico]

Agree 100%. When I say there’s not much Sweeney can do, I mean NOW. If he wanted some truculence he would’ve had started drafting it 3-5 years ago. I don’t think that’s how he envisions the team. McAvoy Forbort Marchand have the mindset, not many more after that. Heck during the Chiarelli years even Tim Thomas was a badass

Chiarelli sure knew how to build a team with an identity. He may have overpaid for some of those guys, but there was no doubt the type of player he was going for.

Im not sure if Sweeney has fully grasped that concept yet outside of just looking for the most talented player.

 

[DKH]

Understood but trading Ullmark -- who is not merely a backup -- could prove exceptionally disruptive in season. That is, this season.

The team as constructed is fragile. When you think of their goaltending, you think of the tandem. You are placing immense pressure on a 25 year old Swayman to be The Guy.

Which is why the time to move Linus was last summer. Alas and alack, the market did not cooperate.

I'm all for a trade. There are complications.

No. they are on a 127 point pace and you are railing about getting Jarred Tinordi to be tougher

The time to trade Ullmark hasn’t happened and if you watched one second of Providence you should be glad he wasn’t traded

 

[UncleRico]

And yet Forbort is +8, 2nd on the team.

I've been made aware of the stat that measures luck. Forbort 's number is extremely high. But at this point, I'm happy for the luck. Kevan Miller had that horseshoe with him during his playing days too.

What stat is it that measures luck?

Are you sure it measures luck or was it just someone who said “that stat is based off luck” because they hated a player being talked about?

 

[Gee Wally]

Please continue here:

Boston Bruins - 2023-24 Roster and Salary Cap Discussion VI

Please continue.

forums.hfboards.com

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

it's probably an offshoot of that shot-based prediction crap (Fenwick/CORSI) that has been so popular in this era. Miller, Heinen, Forbort....the Bruins are good at having "lucky" players keep their "regression to their true means" at bay for the extended peak heights of their careers. let other teams think it's fake. they have the right to be wrong.

Rico is subtweeting me, as he is wont to do. But since you asked...

We're talking about PDO - I didn't invent it. It's included in any analytics site, including Natural Stat Trick. Pretty basic stuff, and pretty well vetted over the years. It has absolutely zero to do with Fenwick/Corsi.

PDO definition​

PDO (SPSV% aka On-ice S%+Sv%) is the sum of shooting percent (S%) and save percent (Sv%) during even strength play. Often times, but not in our dataset, it is multiplied by 10 for the sake of using whole numbers.

PDO = S% + Sv%, where
S% = goal / shots on goal and Sv% = saves / shots on goal

For an individual player, PDO measures what happens when a given player is on the ice. For a team, PDO measures the total game counts.

What does PDO really measure?​

A high PDO for team means a high proportion of shots for are going in, and/or a small fraction of shots against are going in. Therefore, the higher the PDO the better.

However, when talking about PDO, we often talk about regression to mean, meaning over time, a high PDO will fall to the mean (100), and a low PDO will rise to the mean. The reason the mean is 100 is because a shot on goal is either a goal or a save. Therefore, a total game’s S% and Sv% will always add up to 100. Likewise, summing over the entire season will always add up to 100.

And here's two graphs that shows the regression to the mean: