I spent the past few weeks deep diving this draft, stayed away from prospect rankings, watched hours and hours and hours of youtube scouting/shift videos, read up everything I could find. I've got a ranked top 60, BPA, which is the basis of what I'd like to see in the draft. Overcame a lot of biases (USDP guys, Sabres needs) and mostly there were guys that I was just plain ignoring, especially the LHDs. I feel like I have a comprehensive understanding of all the players that I certainly didn't have three weeks ago.
If Gauthier is there at 9 you have to pick him. I've got him 4th overall, above the 2 RHD. I think there is a small chance he can slip to 9. It's unlikely.
I've got Savoie 7th, Geekie 8th, and Kemell 9th. Kemell is top of my 3rd tier, so would be very happy if Savoie or Geekie is available at 9. There is an excellent chance Savoie or Geekie will be at 9, as I doubt my top 8 will go 1-8. The board will lose it's mind if Geekie is picked. I've watched a lot of Geekie the past few weeks. Hours and hours. The skating needs work, and it's essentially his stride that needs work. You can fix that, you can get a highly regarded skating coach, two more years in juniors, a year and a half in the AHL. There's no need to rush this kid. He has the IQ and the skill and his two-way game is there. I will be very happy with Geekie as the pick at 9 and will wait the four years to say "I told your so". Someone will take Geekie top 15, his upside/celing is just immense. And if it's Kemell, that's fine as he is my 9th overall.
Korchinski and Mintyukov will both go in the top 15. Kemell Lekkerimaki and Kasper should be gone but...maybe one of them makes it to 16, so you rush to the podium to make that pick. I've got Nazar, Yurov, McGroarty as 14/15/16. Nazar and Yurov are the last two in my 3rd tier, so would like them as good value at 16. And if it's McGroarty that's fine as he is my 16th overall.
I think two forwards at 9 and 16 is the way to go. If Korchiniski or Mintyukov are available at 16, that changes things. I've got them tied for 10th in my ranking, so either would be great value at 16. In which case F/D/F in the 1st round will be the way. But F/F is more likely. Would really like to see a defenseman picked at 28. Mateychuk will be gone by then. Bichsel or Pickering (I think both will be gone by 28) would be excellent value. There are some quality RHDs, but I've got Chesley at 29th now. I would be thrilled if we pick him at 28, even if it means passing on a few forwards I've got ahead of him.
So, based on how the draft should unfold, here's what I would do if I was making the picks.
9th - Savoie or Geekie (Gauthier ideally but unlikely)
16th - Nazar or Yurov (Kasper ideally but unlikely)
28th - Pickering or Chesley (would prefer Bichsel but I don't think he makes it to 28)
Who knows at 41. There will be a few players in my top 30 who will probably be available at 41 so I'll be screaming for one of them. Schaefer is my big riser. I've got him at 28 in my ranking. Lamoureux at 31, his upside is huge. I've got Warren at 35, would love him in a Sabres uniform. Firkus at 26...maybe he slips. But Gaucher is my dream at pick 41. I've got him 23rd in my ranking...to me his *floor* is 3C, he's a middle-6 lock and is just the sort of player missing in the Sabres forwards lineup. But Gaucher and Firkus won't be there at 41. So Schaefer/Lamoureux/Warren at 41. As much as I like Hutson he's 42 for me now.
Thanks for reading this lol
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