2022 NHL Entry Draft Part 3 (#9, #16, #28)

[Zach716]

I hope we don’t have a second round pick, because that will mean we used it to trade up from the FLA pick to get our guy (whoever that is).

I've seen you say this a couple of times now and I think it's a bit ill advised to have this dead set thinking. I have after like 18 or 19, the next 20 guys picked could be a complete mix-mash. Surely there will also be guys that missed a season of development that scouts will have preferences on for breakout candidates as well. Our #41 this year could be #34 Peterka all over again.

 

[Chainshot]

I've seen you say this a couple of times now and I think it's a bit ill advised to have this dead set thinking. I have after like 18 or 19, the next 20 guys picked could be a complete mix-mash. Surely there will also be guys that missed a season of development that scouts will have preferences on for breakout candidates as well. Our #41 this year could be #34 Peterka all over again.

It's also possible they don't move up at all and use one of their picks at to make a roster move and that's fine as well.

 

[jmelm]

It's also possible they don't move up at all and use one of their picks at to make a roster move and that's fine as well.

Right, and that’s another fine example of them being aggressive in trying to improve their team. It doesn’t only have to be a trade up scenario. I’m not saying you have to make a move for the sake of making a move. Rather, I’m saying that making a move to trade up to get the guy you really want or trading the pick for an existing player you really want, shows the same kind of mentality of being assertive and doing something to actively improve the team rather than just being passive and whatever happens happens, or whoever falls falls.

 

[jmelm]

I've seen you say this a couple of times now and I think it's a bit ill advised to have this dead set thinking. I have after like 18 or 19, the next 20 guys picked could be a complete mix-mash. Surely there will also be guys that missed a season of development that scouts will have preferences on for breakout candidates as well. Our #41 this year could be #34 Peterka all over again.

Yes, you’re right — I have said that many times before but it almost always includes the caveat of “getting our guy” or “to target someone in particular”, or “provided one the guys we had ranked higher is available but likely won’t be if we don’t make a move” etc.

Of course, it should go without saying (and maybe I should have done a better job of clarifying this) that you only trade up in the moment, right on the draft floor in real time, depending on how the draft and our list unfolds. I would never advocate trading up before the draft starts just for the sake of it. It’s to target a specific player we like, like we did trading up to get Peterka.

I use the statement of saying “if we only draft 3 guys in the first 2 rounds I’ll be happy” because that implies that they will have been active in either using the 2nd rounder to trade up to get our guy, or trade for an existing player as Chainshot said. I just really believe we’re at the point in our cycle where we go quality over quantity IF the opportunity presents itself.

 

[Fjordy]

Doesn't Isak Rosen fit into that potential, or are you specifically discussing Centers?

I'm not sure about Isak Rosen, for me he was not a good choice at the time, I think there were better players than him, but we'll see how he develops in the future.

It's just that in this draft I like Savoie and Nazar the most, and if at least one of them is at #9, I would choose him. I think these two players are very talented and skilled.

 

[jmelm]

I'm not trying to predict who they are drafting. I'm talking about players in general since we have no idea.

Also, however they draft will be however they draft - forward, defense, whatever. Desiring it to break in a particular fashion seems like baking in a way to be upset at them.

Sure, that's a perfectly valid point and one that I agree with, but it's not necessarily at odds with the reality that although teams say BPA, as you get deeper in the draft or when you're talking about teams that have multipe high picks like we have, we know that they're going to be considering team need very strongly unless the differential in thier rankings is very different between the players avaiable.

So yes, Beck is a guy that showed a lot of promise this season. He's also somewhat of a projection pick (more than usual) because he didn't play lat all ast season and this one was also his first year in the OHL (unlike others who did play 2 years ago like teammate Del Bel Belluz), so they don't have as much of a book on him as other players that did play.

Although I agree it's absolutely futile (though also fun) to try to predict who they are going to draft with their first two 1st rounders, I do think it's fair to say that if they go 2 forwards with 9 and 16, it's probably fairly likely they go with a Dman with the third 1st unless they think the talent differential is too big. Similarly, if they go F D with 9 & 16 (and especially if that F may be a pure winger, like Lekkerimaki for example) and they specifically want to add to their C depth which is smart organizationally, then they do need to look at the best available C's and Beck may fit the bill. He's definitely gotta be on the shortlist if we're looking for a C, or any forward in that range of the draft if available.

 

[jmelm]

I'm not sure about Isak Rosen, for me he was not a good choice at the time, I think there were better players than him, but we'll see how he develops in the future.

It's just that in this draft I like Savoie and Nazar the most, and if at least one of them is at #9, I would choose him. I think these two players are very talented and skilled.

I think when we're talking about #9 specifically, we have to go BPA if there's someone we really think is clear cut, and should not be influenced by who we took last year (Rosen) or others. So if they have Savoie or Nazar at the top of their list like you do, that's who they should draft regardless of who else is in our system.

The higher the pick, the more it's gotta be about BPA, and that's what #9 is for us. At 16, or the FLA pick and later, we can get more into need, positional balance and trying to add different types of players.

 

[elchud]

I'd package one of our 2023 2nds with the FLA pick to move up and grab the RHD we really want

 

[truthbluth]

Just wondering what is preferred of the two, if we go all USDP or all Swede?

Nazar/Gauthier
McGroarty
Chesley

Lekkerimaki
Ostlund/Ohgren
Salmonsson

That's an easy US for me. While I'd prefer Nazar at 9, Gauthier would also be a win. McGroarty at 16 would be great and is the player I'm focused on for that pick. And Chesley seems good late as well (though I have a preference to grab all the big RHDs)

 

[Fjordy]

I think when we're talking about #9 specifically, we have to go BPA if there's someone we really think is clear cut, and should not be influenced by who we took last year (Rosen) or others. So if they have Savoie or Nazar at the top of their list like you do, that's who they should draft regardless of who else is in our system.

The higher the pick, the more it's gotta be about BPA, and that's what #9 is for us. At 16, or the FLA pick and later, we can get more into need, positional balance and trying to add different types of players.

Yeap, for me Savoie and Nazar BPA.

 

[jmelm]

Yeap, for me Savoie and Nazar BPA.

That's fair, and I would definitely add Lekkeramaki in that list, too.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

I think months ago I said Gauthier in the top 10 and now unfortunately he's going 6 or 7

 

[truthbluth]

I think months ago I said Gauthier in the top 10 and now unfortunately he's going 6 or 7

I remember. I'm sure I'm not the first, but I made the argument for Gauthier at 6 when it looked like that's where we'd be drafting. Then I cooled a little (only a little) on him because he played such a perimeter game in the U18s. Really though I just kind of got enamored with Nazar, whose game is subtle so it takes a few more views to appreciate. I would be enthusiastic to grab either at 9, and if neither are there, it means somebody else fell. To me, it's a pretty solid top 9, and I expect a few surprises. Korchinski, Geekie and Kasper are all guys I wouldn't draft at 9, but could definitely go in that range.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

I remember. I'm sure I'm not the first, but I made the argument for Gauthier at 6 when it looked like that's where we'd be drafting. Then I cooled a little (only a little) on him because he played such a perimeter game in the U18s. Really though I just kind of got enamored with Nazar, whose game is subtle so it takes a few more views to appreciate. I would be enthusiastic to grab either at 9, and if neither are there, it means somebody else fell. To me, it's a pretty solid top 9, and I expect a few surprises. Korchinski, Geekie and Kasper are all guys I wouldn't draft at 9, but could definitely go in that range.

I would gladly take Kasper at 9 but I believe he's going to the Wings at 8

 

[jmelm]

I would gladly take Kasper at 9 but I believe he's going to the Wings at 8

I hope he goes to the Wings because that means someone more talented will drop.

I don't think Kasper has enough sure-fire offensive upside to warrant taking at 9. We can get a much more skilled player and someone who has legit top 6 (or even first line) upside. I'm fine with Kasper at 16, though I would prefer Rutger McGroarty.

I'm also more than happy with the kind of C depth that should be available at the FLA pick or close to it (and may want to trade up 5-6 spots from there), such as Julian Lutz who would likely be rated similarly to Kasper if he didn't miss so much time this year.

 

[BG82]

In my head a top 5 has emerged of Wright, Cooley, Slaf, Nemec, and Jiricek. I don’t think we’re getting any of those guys.

I’m flipping between Savoie and Nazar as my #6 and 7. Would be thrilled if either gets to our pick. 8 and 9, I have Kemell and Lekkerimaki. Gauthier and Geekie are tied for 10/11, but haven’t seen much of Yurov yet.

Yurov I dont want.. Savoie, Nazar and Kemell top by BB. Kevin Korchinski might be a bit of a reach for us, but I wouldnt hate the pick for us at 9

 

[jmelm]

Yurov I dont want.. Savoie, Nazar and Kemell top by BB. Kevin Korchinski might be a bit of a reach for us, but I wouldnt hate the pick for us at 9

If we're truly going BPA and ignoring positional need/want, it's very possible that Korchinski (or Mintyukov or Pickering) might be the guy we take and the BPA on the board.

 

[jmelm]

For anyone who has SiriusXM radio or the app on your device — you may be able to rewind and hear on HockeyProspects radio on the NHL channel, a discussion of some of the draft eligible guys — but only a few and with a focus on the mens WCs: Nemec, Jiricek, Kasper, Slafkovsky and a bit of discussion on he and Wright compare.

I think they replay the same episode on Sunday mornings as they do on Saturdays if you missed it and care to listen.

 

[truthbluth]

For anyone who has SiriusXM radio or the app on your device — you may be able to rewind and hear on HockeyProspects radio on the NHL channel, a discussion of some of the draft eligible guys — but only a few and with a focus on the mens WCs: Nemec, Jiricek, Kasper, Slafkovsky and a bit of discussion on he and Wright compare.

I think they replay the same episode on Sunday mornings as they do on Saturdays if you missed it and care to listen.

Curious what Mark Edwards thinks about Slafkovsky.

 

[Chainshot]

 

[jmelm]

For anyone who has SiriusXM radio or the app on your device — you may be able to rewind and hear on HockeyProspects radio on the NHL channel, a discussion of some of the draft eligible guys — but only a few and with a focus on the mens WCs: Nemec, Jiricek, Kasper, Slafkovsky and a bit of discussion on he and Wright compare.

I think they replay the same episode on Sunday mornings as they do on Saturdays if you missed it and care to listen.

Summary fo the discussion here (I'm typing up the conversation). I'm going to skip the Wright/Slaf stuff because I don't think either of those guys are falling to us

Jiricek: biggest concerns are his skating (which I posted being concerned about earlier in the week after watching his first few WC games). This will be the primary thing that will hold him back, especially in the playoffs when the speed & intensity gets ramped up. Said the offense is there and he's a top 5 pick on that basis, but the concern is his play in the neutral zone (transition) and specifically the defensive zone. Said he has had a rough start to this tournament. He had a better showing at the "Euro hockey tour" (a different tournament) before the WC's where he had a very good performance and may help cushion his play thus far in this tourney.

They are specifically worried about his skating mechanics/skating base. He is not a very good backwards skater, which puts him off balance when defending; his pivoting/rotating/recovery on plays is weak -- and these issues are magnified at this level of higher competition he's facing at the WCs against more NHL caliber players. Have to figure out where his development (his stabilizer muscles, etc.) are in the testing and how much improvement in these regards he may be able to make over time [my note: which is another way of saying, exactly what our strength & conditioning coachs and our skating coaches would be evaluating at the combine]. Trying to figure out where they think it can get to vs. where it is now. Said right now he is a "glass canon" (whatever TF that mean) in that he will get you a goal, but then he'll give up a goal because of his skating deficiencies.


Kasper: Loves his pro style 200 ft play. Says they have him ranked in the late 1st because his floor is so high, not because of where they think his ceiling is. Reinforced that his offensive game & creativity is what gives them concerns about his offensive potential. Says he's a sure-fire 3rd line player and extremely unlikely that he would "miss" and not play 10-15 years in the NHL who will play for a long time in the bottom 6. Shows the occasional flash of creativity on offense, but not enough to be convinced he's a top 6 guy. Definitely a guy you want on your 3rd line if you're going into the NHL playoffs.
[I've heard the co-host, Shane Malloy say recently, a few weeks back, that the only way it would be reasonable for a team to take him as high as mid-first or higher is if they believe he's got legit 2nd line offensive potential, which he's not sold on].


I'll continue with Nemec is the next post....

 

[Chainshot]

Jiricek's skating issues aren't new - that was part of his pre-injury conversation, usually topped off with video of his turning on a variety of bad pivots and getting walked. If you walk through the first draft thread, that comes up back in the fall. Most have wanted to see if the knee injury is going to be an issue and if he's able to improve off his earlier dubious issues in his own zone.

 

[jmelm]

Nemec: Basically the clear cut best Dman in the draft. Extremely complete player and skillset with only one overt weakness: that he has a muffin for a shot. Is very good at seeing lanes, making lane re-adjustments to open up shooting seems [I've noticed the same with his offensive playmaking, transition playmaking and D-zone breakouts]. His shots get blocked because it's weak. He does think he can seriously work on his shooting mechanics in offseason training [so while he may never have a bomb, he should be able to get a lot better in this regard]. Aside from his shot being underwhelming, the rest of his game is certainly not. He has been as advertised: solid, efficient, consistent. He's gotten much more comfortable physically as the season has gone on, and he's much more comfortable & effective in "dictating the defensive zone" using his frame, as opposed to only his stick positioning (which has always been excellent). At the WCs, he's shown he can elevate his pace and physicality against superior competition, and he has the skating base and ability to be able to defend against the best teams at this tourney. Says the skating base & mechanics between Nemec and Jirieck is "not close". Nemec has solidified himself as the #1 Dman in this draft.

* The only note I'll say about the Wright vs Slafkovsky discussion is that it should be a serious debate in Montreal, and should not be a foregone conclusion.

 

[Zach716]

F Jake Richard - Muskegon Lumberjacks, USHL (2022, 170th, BUF)

Very young player for this draft, committed to UCONN for next year? EP has him listed at 5'11, but this article suggests he has grown a bit. UConn men’s hockey landed a commitment from Jake Richard, an ‘04 forward who will join the team as part of the Class of 2023. A native of Jacksonville...

hfboards.mandatory.com

Jake Richard - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Jake Richard, 2004-08-15 Jacksonville, FL, USA USA. Most recently in the undefined with Univ. of Connecticut. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

2 points in first 16 games and 45 points in the last 40. Someone in the hf thread said he was a late bloomer. I'd look at a kid like this in the mid rounds for a potential huge breakout going forward.

 

[jmelm]

Jiricek's skating issues aren't new - that was part of his pre-injury conversation, usually topped off with video of his turning on a variety of bad pivots and getting walked. If you walk through the first draft thread, that comes up back in the fall. Most have wanted to see if the knee injury is going to be an issue and if he's able to improve off his earlier dubious issues in his own zone.

I know the concerns aren't new, but it's still interesting to hear an NHL scout break it down into that level of detail (beyond only what I posted) and the extent to which he thinks it will effect his draft stock and how he may project as an NHL player as a result.

We've heard a lot recently that teams are pretty split on which of these 2 is the better Dman (I believe it was Pronman who recently said it was close to a 50/50 split among teams he talked to). When I watch these 2 I see a clear gap between the two, and so did this scout in this case. Of course, opinions vary.

I won't be at all surprised if Jiricek is not the 2nd Dman taken in this draft, and maybe he's the 3rd or even 4th. I'm not predicting it's the most likely scenario, but I do wonder if he might be leapfrogged by Korchinski (especially) and perhaps one of Pickering or Mintyukov as well.