I just hope someone else takes a defenceman so we get one of the forwards.
Look back at old drafts and the team that takes the defence early in the 1st almost never gets the better guy. Even when they still do ok and get a Heiskanen they miss a Makar. Is Hanafin better than Provorov, Werenski or Chabot?
A top 5 miss on forwards still usually gets you a decent forward even if they don't hit their ceiling. Top 5 misses on defence get you trash like Juolevi, Gudbranson, Reinhart.
I haven't thought about it before but this is a really good point. I shuffled through 21st century entry drafts, and your take on the situation is accurate nearly all the time. In 21 drafts, among the first defensemen picked in each draft, there are superstars--Daughty, Hedman, Seth Jones, Suter, Heiskanen. Then there are some other good ones, like Boumeister and Ekblad, but they are followed by a bunch of serviceable D (the Johnsons, :Larsson, Murray) and busts and mediocrities (Juolevi, Kleska, Komisarek, Hickey, Barker). Compare that with the first forward taken in each year: Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin. Matthews, Kovalchuk, Kane, McKinnon, Stamkos, Tavares are at the top of the heap, followed by some good lesser lights like Eric Staal amd Rick Nash. Second and third forwards picked also appear to be well ahead of their defensive counterparts in terms of impact on their teams. It would indeed seem that at the top of the draft a team is consistently more likely to draft a star forward than a star defenseman.